|FLEMINGTON: OAKS DAY- 8th NOV 2018|
|Track: SLOW(6) - Weather: OVERCAST - Rail: OUT 5M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
The weather was totally chaotic on Tuesday for the Cup with the track bouncing between a GOOD(4), down to a HEAVY(8) and back up again to a SLOW(6), which was a remarkable come back. Its just a shame that the Flemington train station didnít have the same draining capacity which saw platforms closed for the day. There is still a bit of rain around, so this track should remain soft and they have moved the rail out further than Tuesday. They were coming off the rails on Tuesday so expect that pattern to continue and down the straight they will want to be hard up against the outside fence.
There is one of the more interesting editions of the Oaks in that we donít have a short priced favourite and not sure punters really know where to go yet. Mainly because boom fillies 1-AMPHITRITE and 4-VERRY ELLEEGANT both disappointed here on Saturday when well favoured. Normally the Oaks is a race you can have a confident bet in too, the winner of the Wakeful just normally wins again. It is a bit strange this year, normally most of the field from the Wakeful just backs up again so you can line them all up, this year we actually have a long tail of horses coming through multiple different form lines so there is the possibility of an upset. The 1-AMPHITRITE has been in flying form this spring, and didnít get clear running here on Saturday and is the class horse of the field, just has to stay the 2500M. The 2-ARISTIA as the Wakeful winner is normally the one to beat and has been consistent this spring and looks to be improving as she gets more race experience. The 3-QAFILA probably should have just about won here on Saturday when held up for runs for a fair while down the straight, but her form before that was a bit wobbly. The 4-VERRY ELLEEGANT was flying before Saturday and she still ran on OK in a race dominated by leaders, and wonder if like EXTRA BRUT in the Derby we should forgive her the one average run. Away from those form lines the 12-COLLECTABLE ran on very well at Caulfield and looks to be improving though is still a maiden.
The speed here looks moderate at best, we have the 5-GREYSFUL GLAMOUR or 6-SIZZLEME leading with the 2-ARISTIA and 3-QAFILA sitting handy, from the 12-COLLECTABLE, though it is a bit tricky to know where some of these coming off country form will settle. Which means it is unlikely to be a true staying contest. Think you need to stick with the Wakeful form and go the improving 2-ARISTIA on top here, she box seated and won on Saturday and can probably do the same here in a slowly run race and she did give the (4) a decent run for her money the start before. Looks the safest bet in a race with queries over a few of the runners. The 4-VERRY ELLEEGANT the main danger, she still stuck on OK here on Saturday and maybe the race just wasnít run to suit and they should be running on late out wide today. She does need to learn how to settle though and they have made a gear change today. There is actually a good value roughie to watch out for here, in the 12-COLLECTABLE, is still a maiden but improving and normally races on speed. Dropped back to last at Caulfield from an outside barrier and worked home really well and will be suited out to the 2500M and on a wet track. The 1-AMPHITRITE the other obvious danger, bit wary about them coming on from 1600M to 2500M within a few days and maybe keep an eye on the market to see if the money comes for her or not. From a punting point of view we will be having a win bet on the top pick and each way on the good value roughie.
So far Cup Week has been nothing sort of disastrous on the punt. We havenít found a single winner on top, the Lay of The Day has won twice, and our Melbourne Cup tip tragically broke down. But we are hopefully optimistic today that we will tip the card Ė straight out.
BEST WIN: Race 3: 7-SAVACOOL $5 WIN
Quality staying mare who has been racing really well in Sydney, has good career stats and handles wet going. Looks extremely well suited with 54 kgs against a fairly mediocre field here. She is a drop back and run on type and that should be the racing pattern, even though there doesnít seem to be much speed in this race. Looks the one to beat at around $3.30, but that is starting to get towards the bottom of the acceptable odds, so letís also take a trifecta in this race in the Wonder Bet for more value.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 3-HARBOUR GREY $4 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 4: 3-HARBOUR GREY #10-OUR GIRL SILKE, 5-CAPE SOUNION x $4 = 200%
An old grey favourite of ours who looked to have this race all over and won last year at double figure odds when we tipped him, and got run down by a blinding freak run. That still stings. Was coming off a 4th in the same Geelong race last year which he won impressively this year flashing home late. He is normally ridden on speed though. He has actually ran in this race for the last 3 years now and has always finished in the top four, so he really deserves to finally win this race. He is well in the market this year at $4, so back straight out and take quinellas with the dangers the improving 10-OUR GIRL SILKE and the on pace roughie 5-CAPE SOUNION.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 3-REAL SUCCESS $5 EW
Promising middle distance horse who bypassed the Derby to go to this race. Was really good late at Caulfield and then given a good chance in the betting MV Vase, when run was a bit funny and ridden to try and suit the pattern. Can settle handle here from a good barrier and expect he is going to run a lot better than last start suggests. Each way at around $4.60
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 6-ASSERTIVE PLAY $4 EW
Filly who looks to be building up to a win this spring. Had no luck at MV 1st up, was injured 2nd up at Caulfield, was held up for runs at Caulfield the start after, and then ran on out wide on leaders track at MV last start. So stack of excuses so far. Looks a strong finishing type who is going to be suited by the Flemington straight and barrier 19 , coming home hard against the outside rail. Each way in the last to get out at around $12.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 11-CHARLTON $2.50 EW
Always like to get on a strong miler in this sort of race and this one is actually proven over further ground. Career stats are pretty good and should have plenty of improvement to come after two runs back from a spell. Up in class but on the improve. Last start came from last and run over the top of them, and although drawn outside here, the speed in this race looks OK and that should be the racing pattern. Genuine rough chance at round $31.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 1-FAATINAH $2 EW
We find this guy notoriously hard to catch and canít believe he went over to Dubai and won a race as well. Fitter for the 3 runs in, has been thereabouts the last two starts and he is best ridden out to the lead over the shorter trips and hope they go straight to the outside rail here and just keep going. Rough chance at around $15.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 12-COLLECTABLE $2.50 EW
We really like the lead up run of this one in the Oaks, when dropped back from an outside barrier and made good ground in the straight behind two smart ones. She is still in her first campaign and a maiden so this may be coming up too quickly, but drawn well today and can roll forward and might just keep rolling on a wet track. Really solid rough chance at around $18 and hope to get better odds on the day.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 5:CHICAGO BULL at around $2.50
We havenít tipped in the early two year old race, but seeing we are looking to go a grand slam on Lays Of The Day this week lets just get the pain out of the way early. Heavily backed two year old, but down the straight on a slow track for the first time reckon these odds are too short in a field with all unknowns. Some of those with race experience have gone OK, and particularly like the 1-WEDGETAIL so planning to back that one instead. Happy Laying Punters.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
TRIFECTA: Race 3: 7-SAVACOOL / 3, 12 / 3,4,5,6,10,12 x $5 = 50%
The favourite here is our best bet of the day and really should win, the 7-SAVACOOL, but also concerned she is going to get into silly odds. Letís try and find some value in the trifecta as think the main dangers are both at double figure odds, the 12-TAN TAT TRUSTING and 3-A SHIN ROOK and then go wide for third and hope for a dividend over $100.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. GRAB PHOTO WITH BART STATUE
Race 2: 10-GLOBAL SANCTION, 4-GUIPURE, 9-CABIERRO
Race 3: 7-SAVACOOL, 12-TAN TAT TRUSTING, 3-A SHIN ROOK
Race 4: 3-HARBOUR GREY, 10-OUR GIRL SILKE, 5-CAPE SOUNION
Race 5: 12-EQYPTIAN GOLD, 11-CHARLTON, 4-TRULY DISCREET,
Race 6: 1-FAATINAH, 8-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD, 14-SHE KNOWS
Race 7: 3-REAL SUCCESS, 5-ALESSANDRO, 7-PREDECESSOR
Race 8: 2-ARISTIA, 4-VERRY ELLEEGANT, 12-COLLECTABLE
Race 9: 6-ASSERTIVE PLAY, 3-HUMMA HUMMA, 16-BLEU ROCHE