|FLEMINGTON : OAKS DAY - 7th November 2019|
|Track: SOFT(5) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 6M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
The weather is looking a bit grim again for Oaks Day with a bit of rain forecast. However the forecast is for the afternoon/evening, so there is a chance the rain might not come through to later in the day. The rails goes OUT 6M from the Cup Day position of OUT 3M, and although the track did dry out on the inside later in the day on Cup Day , it was definitely wearing and they could run on and win in most races. Despite the rail movement expect that pattern to continue, especially if the rains comes and there is a bit of wind around. Racing pattern should favour those running on. Down the straight they will come to middle, but not hard against outside fence as there were noticeable tyres track markings just a few metres in from the outside rail on Tuesday.
For the VRC Oaks, the winning strike rate of the Wakeful winner going into the Oaks is sensational, and often the odds are still quite decent, like ARISTIA winning at $6 last year. So you could almost not bother doing the form and just back the 1-MIAMI BOUND. She showed heaps of potential early in the spring, then looked a bit wobbly, but was really good winning here on Saturday when jockey Oliver sent her forward to sit handy and that made all the difference. Rain no issue for her. The 2-MOONLIGHT MAID was sensational winning here from last 2 starts back and solid effort in strong form race at MV, but is drawn out and again wonder how far back she is going to drop in the run. You would think she would definitely run the trip out though. The 3-GAMAY makes a lot of appeal as the form lines up through the Wakeful placegetters, and most importantly she has drawn well and can race on speed where many of her rivals will drop back and give them a big start. The 4-VEGAS JEWEL has had a sensational first preparation, up in distance and class each start, and she has been only beaten by narrow margins last two starts when trying really hard to the line. We have a lot of time for her, and think she is a horse of the future, but drawn out today means she is likely to drop back and just wonder if the 2500M today is going to find her out as another step up again.
Those four seem to be the main winning chances. Of the rest, the 5-FOXBOROUGH dropped too far back and hit the line really well in the Wakeful, stable has a great record with staying fillies. She is a maiden and you would think might settle more forward today, but should stay out the trip. The 6-SILENT SOVEREIGN was really good in Adelaide two starts back finishing on hard, and then dropped too far back as well on Saturday, didnít hit the line as well as the (5), but another who will stay just needs to position midfield or better. The 8-BEAUTY BOLT is a tough drop back stayer who flies home, her best chance is a genuine wet track and rain and her chances improve if she gets conditions to suit. Interesting that we have the 9-AMAZING PEACE, 10-NEVER LISTEN and 14-STICK ĎEM UP coming in as different form lines, all three last start Sydney winners, and trying to do a LASQUETI SPIRT. The 10-NEVER LISTEN in particular creates a lot of interest for us, long hard preparation, very impressive winner in pretty weak race last start, but most importantly, races on speed in a race with lots of backmarkers today. We tipped the 12-OCEAN MISS last start and she ran pretty well, box seated, contested in the straight and just faded late. She is likely to do the same again today at only her 4th start, but really hasnít done much wrong in career to date.
The speed here is going to be crucial, and we canít see much at all. The 13-APICIUS is the likely leader (note, now scratched), with the 3-GAMAY, 7-PRESENTLY, 10-NEVER LISTEN and 12-OCEAN MISS sitting handy and then hopefully the favourite 1-MIAMI BOUND ridden forward again. But there doesnít seem to be much pressure up front here and concerned about some of these who drop a long way out of their ground, unless we get some heavy rain and the track really cuts up. Really based on Saturdayís win the 1-MIAMI BOUND is the horse to beat here, hopefully jockey Oliver will do what he did on Saturday with WARNING and go forward early and put her into the race at the right time. The only danger is the 3-GAMAY who has the big positive of sitting handy and really pretty confident that one of these two horses win. There are stack of possibilities for third, with lots of value runners who can fill the placings, but we are going to give the 6-SILENT SOVEREIGN another chance, just hope jockey Kah can take up a more forward position from a good barrier. Lead up form is more solid than many of her rivals here. Outside those, rough place chances to the likes of 10-NEVER LISTEN on speed, the 5-FOXBOROUGH staying and the 12-OCEAN MISS box seating. If some of the other horses in the betting can settle forward that would totally change things, but have queries on them at the moment based on the speed in the race. Think you can play a nice wide trifecta or first four here with the two winning chances in the finish and rotating the roughies to place.
We have been tipping up a storm this week with nice profits on Derby Day and Cup Day and plenty of winners, so the pressure is on to go the full week Grand Slam of profits on all four meetings. Today is going to be a challenge, Cup Day we had plenty of horses we were following in our Black Book, today is going to be harder work. It may also be harder work getting out of the course at the end of the day, with a twilight meeting planned (and rain forecast late arvo), and the Oaks as the second last race in Melbourne peak hour. Disappointingly the Early Quad includes a two year old race so we have done tips for that which we donít normally do, and the 11-ARTIC ICE should be extremely hard to beat based on her first start. This is a really tricky program for punting with some very big fields and lots and lots of different form lines to try and line up, but also some very short priced favourites who are spruik horses coming off lower grade wins with big step ups in class and seem poor value to us.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 3-PANCHO $5 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 7: 3-PANCHO, 4-OSCAR BOY x $2
We have a super short priced favourite in this race, the 10-RUSSIAN CAMELOT, but would much rather back the second favourite who has much better form. Good career stats, had a good preparation down here earlier in the year, been racing well in Sydney and fitter for the 3 runs in and ready to win. Has much better form than the rest of his rivals here who are mainly coming off maiden runs and under this weight scale carries equal weights. Should really be favourite, so letís get on straight out at around $3.30 and save on the quinella with the 4-OSCAR BOY who is racing really well and was beaten by a horse who ran well in the MV Vase last start and looks well over the odds around $14 for an in form horse that will settle on speed.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 4-MR MONEY BAGS $2.50 EW
We have a super short priced favourite in the first as well, the 8-IMPLI who yes, should be hard to beat in a field with not much depth, but think we prefer to back this one each way instead. This one has a solid Flemington record, even though he has raced almost half his career here, and has been racing over too short a trip Ė we think he wants 1600M to 1800M definitely. Probably wants it dry too, but the rain might not come till later and out to a suitable distance in a small field he might do something today at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 3-SOMETHING SILVER $2.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 1,3,4,7,9 box x $5 = 50%
We will openly put our hand up and say we tip and back this one too often, but she is going a lot better than her form looks. Was contesting the finish about 200M out in a Group mares races at MV two starts back, and then was chasing hard and wide last start and fought on OK. Might be better suited back at the 1400M and always a plus to be able to settle handy this track and distance like she can. Again we have a short priced favourite coming off a maiden win in the 10-BUMPER BLAST, which you are quite welcome to. This one has been racing at a higher level than many of these and carries equal weights today. The $11 on offer today looks very generous and suspect will be well and truly gone by tomorrow. There is a bit of value in this race with a false favourite, so box up a quinella with the classy 1-PLATINUM ANGEL, the improving Adelaide performer 4-RAINMOTH, the leader Tasmanian the 7-SIR SIMON, and we are going to make a case for a $100 shot here, the 9-MISS SKEPTICAL who is actually racing OK and should get a good on speed run from the barrier.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 2-CRYSTAL DREAMER $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 2-CRYSTAL DREAMER#10-FINE DANE, 1-BALL OF MUSCLE x $2 = 100%
Ultra-consistent performer who surprised with a long shot win 1st up from a long injury lay off. Then 2nd up the on-pacers dominated, he was racing at the back trying to run on with head on side, didnít like being crowded and still made good ground. That was a pretty good run, and TACTICAL ADVANTAGE came through that race and won on Tuesday. Has good straight track form, excellent 1000M form, suited under the compressed weight scale and has drawn out which should be the best going. Looks a great each way bet at around $9 and save in the quinella with the tough, gritty 10-FINE DANE who should love the straight, and the classy leader the 1-BALL OF MUSCLE.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 10-NICCOVI $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 10-NICCOVI#2,3,5,7 x $2 = 50%
We have an extremely short priced favourite in the last, the 2-CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL who should be hard to beat, but did get to dominate on speed on a leaders track at Caulfield last start, and these straight races are never that straight forward, especially if leading, so $2 on offer looks rock bottom odds. Which means we get great odds of around $14 for the one we like, the 10-NICCOVI. Was competitive on speed in the Blue Sapphire, and then looped the field and hit the line hard at MV, only to be beaten by one that had taken the short cut along the inside. Ridden cold from an outside barrier and finishing hard down the outside looks a great chance here at $14. Back each way, and stack of value in the quinella if the super short favourite should flop, especially around roughie 7-NIEDORP who might lead down the outside rail here and is racing well.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 1-MIAMI BOUND, 3-GAMAY x $2 = 400%
We think one of these two will win the Oaks, at the moment we arenít actually quite sure which way to go, else would have made one of them Best Bet. So instead of having a win bet will take the quinella and we have backed them again in an ambitious First Four in the Wonder bet below.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 17-EXASPERATE (emerg) $1.50 EW
Another race with a short priced favourite, the 1-HARBOUR VIEWS but we actually think the 4-OíTAUTO is a good chance of turning the tables based on the last runs. The value runner though is the 17-EXASPERATE, who is currently first emergency, but surely there will be one scratching in a field of 16 on a slow track to give him a run? He is a super strong finisher who had a really good preparation last campaign and was OK 1st run back over 1400M, but wants further and a 1600M wet track, running on slog fest would be exactly that he wants so we just have to hope he can get into the field at around $17.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 10-RUSSIAN CAMELOT at around $2.50
There are a stack of short priced favourites today and think most of them are pretty poor value and you can work out which ones we want to take on based on what is in the tips and what isnít. Impressive from behind maiden winner at only start, but he started $4.60 in that race and is currently $2.50, coming into town, out to 1800M, carrying equal weights with horses that have been racing in much harder races. Seems extremely poor value and keen to take on.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a helicopter ride home
FIRST FOUR: Race 8: 1,3/1,3/5,6,10,12/2,4,5,6,10,12 x $5 = 12.5%
We landed the trifecta in the Derby here on Saturday, so letís try and go one better today with the First Four in the Oaks. Really think the 1-MIAMI BOUND and 3-GAMAY fight out the finish here, and there are a stack of roughies who can place like the 6-SILENT SOVEREIGN, 10-NEVER LISTEN, 5-FOXBOROUGH and 12-OCEAN MISS. If something unusual gets into the finish the first four should pay OK. Realistically you would probably want to take the bet again and flip the 3rd and 2nd brackets around but we are limited to $5 and want to keep the percentage over 10%.
Race 1: 4-MR MONEY BAGS, 8-IMPI, 9-MAHIS ANGEL
Race 2: 11-ARCTIC ICE, 10-TAGALOA, 8-HARD LANDING
Race 3: 3-SOMETHING SILVER, 1-PLATINUM ANGEL, 4-RAINMOTH
Race 4: 2-SO YOU SWING, 16-AFFAIR TO REMEMBER, 7-METRONOME
Race 5: 2-CRYSTAL DREAMER, 10-FINE DANE, 1-BALL OF MUSCLE
Race 6: 4-OíTAUTO, 17-EXASPERATE (emerg), 1-HARBOUR VIEWS, 6-STARSPANGLED RODEO
Race 7: 3-PANCHO, 4-OSCAR BOY, 1-QUICK THINKER
Race 8: 1-MIAMI BOUND, 3-GAMAY, 6-SILENT SOVEREIGN
Race 9: 10-NICCOVI, 2-CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL, 7-NIEDORP