|FLEMINGTON: OAKS DAY - 5th November 2020|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: OUT 5M |
| Betting Portfolio ($60): |
Oaks Day is back to a normal time slot this year without the crowds, and they have rotated some of the races around over the Tues, Thurs, Sat and not quite sure it really works. The track got very firm on Tuesday, a few light showers leading into Thursday but not enough to really affect the track and expect a lot of watering and the track to dry out over the day. We got pretty even racing on Tuesday, but there was no disadvantage to be on-speed but by Oaks Day the track starts to wear and it is easier for back markers to run on. Expect that they will come to the middle/outside of the course down the straight.
Often we get short priced favourites today and this card has come up a bit light on for value bets, or interesting races to go through. Interestingly there are more Sydney horses going around today then either Derby or Cup day combined. Note we are modifying the Betting Portfolio to $60 at the moment to give us a bit more wiggle room. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
Usually we love to have a bet in the Oaks, normally you just back the winner of the Wakeful backing up and often you can get $4 and just have a whack at it. Unusual year this year in that we have a short priced favourite and the Wakeful winner not going onto the Oaks. The speed is often not that genuine in this race, this year we have the 7-TYCHE GODDESS leading from the 9-STAR OF EDEN and the 11-VILANCULOS with the 5-SALTO ANGEL and 2-PERSONAL slotting in behind them, but hard to see them running along here.
Going through the field, the 1-MONTEFILIA is the short priced favourite who has been flying up in Sydney.
Won the 3YO fillies Flight Stakes impressively running over the top of them from well back and then repeated the dose against the males in the Spring Champion in a tough finish. She deserves to be favourite in this race, not sure she quite deserves to be this short. Often the Sydney form is better, but it has been quite noticeable for the 3YOs this year that the Sydney horses havenít really been competitive (of the few who have come down). Will drop back and give a few a start here, and looks the one to beat, but donít think she is unbeatable. The 2-PERSONAL has been racing extremely consistently, and place getter in the Thousand Guineas and Wakeful is very strong form for this. Worked home well in the Thousand Guineas and the winner there is very smart, and then got perfect sit and trail into the Wakeful here on Saturday when had every chance but out stayed by a promising one. She can probably get the perfect sit and trail into the race here again, and will probably have a head start on some of her main rivals here into the straight, but just wonder if she is going to do the same again and find one better. The 3-CAF… RIZU is a staying filly who was tough with her Flemington win back during the winter. Three runs this time in and she hasnít done much, although she did work to the line well last start at Caulfield after being held up back in the field a few times. Those in front of her were safely held here on Saturday and suspect she might prefer a wet track, but a rough place chance staying out the 2500M. The 4-SUCCEED INDEED was one we were keen on earlier in the spring, she was hopelessly unlucky here in the Edward Manifold when the gap closed when she was going for a run and she does have a powerful finishing burst. Went wide and early at Caulfield and no surprise she tired, but felt she was entitled to fight out the finish a bit longer and then didnít go much here on Saturday, so hard to get enthused. The 5-SALTO ANGEL is one we have a bit of time for, she should have won at Caulfield when she was held up for runs on the rails and flashed home once she got clearing running and we were keen on her on Saturday and really she had no chance once they dropped back from the outside barrier. She stuck on OK in the Wakeful and was widest on the turn there, she should go forward here and get a softer run on-speed so suspect she is going to run a lot better today and is a rough chance here.
The 6-MIRAVALLE is the other Sydney visitor and was a seriously good run here on Saturday when she dropped back to last, laid in about 200M out and lost a few lengths and then really took ground off them coming to the line late, and she is probably the best run out of the Wakeful. Start before that against the (1) she also dropped back to last and worked home OK out wide though she was beaten a good 6L, so hard to see her turning the tables on the favourite. Do like that we have seen her and she has raced well this week so a strong winning chance here, they probably need to ride her a bit closer though and not drop out to last. The 7-TYCHE GODDESS was seriously good here on Saturday in the Wakeful at long odds, jumped and sat handy and showed a great kick in the straight to fight out the finish. Form before that was even and she looks to be improving as she steps up in distance and is the likely leader here so probably going to be in this for a long way, but more a place chance. The 8-BIARCHI represents a new Adelaide form line, and is in winning form unlike most of these. She can sit handy and actually the last win was pretty good (even if it was against weaker opposition), she was giving the leader a decent start, got squashed for a run and still came out and chased them down. Huge rise in class here, but a super roughie for those seeking big trifectas and first fours as think she will probably run better than the odds suggest. The 9-STAR OF EDEN has only had the three career starts and she has done nothing wrong, every run has been very similar, lobbing on-speed and sticking on well. Coming through the Caulfield race which isnít the strongest form, and is the least experienced horse in this field. She does look a solid staying type though so the 2500M should suit and good chance she can stick on, on-speed for a place. The 10-ART GLASS won a heavy(9) maiden over 2220M two starts back so at least you know she will stay, didnít do much at Caulfield and hard to see her being a factor here.
The 11-VILANCULOS has been coming along nicely and isnít hopeless here. She poked through nicely in the Geelong Classic and CONFRONTATIONAL franked that form here on Tuesday with a good run. She looks a solid staying type and will get a good sit just behind the speed here and looks like the extra distance will suit and think she is the best roughie here in this race. The 12-HARD SQUEEZE wasnít beaten far at Flemington, but hard to see her being competitive here off a high weight maiden win. The 13-YATTON ran on well here in a bunched finish and then was well held at Caulfield by many going around here so hard to have, and itís the same story for the 14-SWINDON LASS who has yet to even run a place.
Normally we are quite confident with our Oaks selections, but we are not quite as sure this year. We are pretty sure one of the Sydney horses wins and think we are going to switch to the 6-MIRAVALLE on the theory that you always back the best run out of the Wakeful in this race. Would be good to see her ridden mid-field rather than last, but there should be enough speed here for her to run on. Fully appreciate the 1-MONTEFILIA beat her easily the start before, but like that we have seen her at Flemington this week. The short priced favourite 1-MONTEFILIA the obvious danger and the one to beat and there are a stack of roughies to consider, and we are going to give the 5-SALTO ANGEL another chance here, think she just got into the wrong spot in the race here on Saturday and will run much better settling behind the speed today. Best roughie is definitely the 11-VILANCULOS and donít be surprised if the 8-BIARCHI runs better than expected. Betting plan is to play with trifectas and first fours with the Sydney horses fighting out the finish and some of the roughies getting into the placings.
BEST WIN: Race 3: 7-FIESTA $10 WIN
We are taking the punt that they are going to back this horse up after winning impressively down the straight on Saturday in the last race. On face value, back to 1000M, back marker dropping back in distance in a small field may seem like a query, but there is a golden rule of punting during Cup week and that is get on horses that have raced well and back up again within a week Ė they keep their form well. She was super impressive on Saturday and although the favourite and leader 6-ANCESTRY may be hard to run down, his worst previous run came down the straight so has to be a little query. Confident win bet at around $4.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 10-MR MONEY BAGS $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 4,8,10,13 boxed x $3 = 50%
This one hasnít won for two years now, but was narrowly defeated in this race last year by the 6-SAVAHEAT who is also going around again this year. He does keep his best form for Flemington, winning three times here and is fitter for the three runs in and was closing into the finish nicely out wide last start at Geelong. Likely to have been aimed at this race again this year. Note that this field has been torn apart by scratchings so hard to know what the odds will be by race time, but happy to have something each way at around $12 and save on a quinella with the ultra-consistent on pacer the 4-IRISH FLAME, the classy Sydney sider the 8-PANCHO and donít be surprised if the roughie 13-NUDGE BAR runs a race out in the lead here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 2-BELLA NIPOTINA $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 2-BELLA NIPOTINA#4,6,10,11 x $4 = 100%
Super consistent filly who has had a great spring and keeps going around at good each way odds so we keep backing her. Good run behind SWATS THAT two starts back at Caulfield who ran well in the feature sprint here on Saturday, and then fought hard against one that had the advantage of the rails and leader bias on Cox Plate day. First time down the straight, but there is really good speed here and she should be able to sit off the pack and burst through at the right time. Note that we are up against a super impressive last start winner and short priced favourite here in the 6-WRITTEN BEAUTY, who is drawn against the outside rail and may drop back and get squashed back in the field if they all come to the outside. Back each way at around $12 looks good value and aim for a value quinella if the run doesnít come for the favourite with the good straight track horse the 4-MINHAAJ, the 10-CELESTINE who won here two starts back and the 11-HIGHLY DISCREET who may run on strongly back towards the inside.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 5-MR TIPLA $3 EW
Pretty tough and consistent grey who has good career stats and excellent stats when freshened up (won 3 from 6 1st up), and pretty good 1400M stats in a field where a lot of them are outclassed. He probably sits handy here over the Flemington 1400M and gets the run of the race. Each way at around $15 should get you a pretty good run for your money.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 17-TATUNKA (emerg) $2.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 4,8,11,15,17 boxed x $5
First emergency in this field but we already have a scratching so assume he will get a run. Big even country field here, but this one is fitter for the two runs back in, has good career strike rate and has a strong late finish in a race where there seems to be an absolute stack of speed. Back each way at around $20 and take a box quinella in the big field with those with good 1600M records, such as the 8-VUNGERS, 4-KAPLUMPICH, 15-LORD MARKEL and 11-RUBY SKYE as these looks to be a solidly rate feature mile race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 5-SALTO ANGEL $3 EW
We have been on this one last two starts and willing to give her another try. Should have won at Caulfield when got held up against the rails and flew home once got into clear running, and we were keen on her chances on Saturday but really she had no chance once dropped back to last from an outside barrier, did make a run in the straight but was only even to the line. Think she can go forward here today and with a better barrier and settling behind the speed you might see a much better run at around $30.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 8-HOUSAY at around $3.30
We are a bit nervous about this one as there isnít a lot of depth in this field and he is showing a bit of ability. But first time in town, first time over the 1400M coming off a beaten 3rd at $2.80 in a BM64 and currently only $3.30 up in class to a city standard race seems crazy odds. Does have a lot of potential and might go on with it here, but the 3-SKY PUNCH won a listed race in Adelaide last start, yet this one is somehow favourite. Odds seem to be based on potential, not form so happy to risk today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to buy a QLD holiday for when the borders open up.
FIRST FOUR: Race 8: 1,6 / 1,6 / 5,11 / 2,5,7,8,9,11 x $2.50 = 12.50%
FIRST FOUR: Race 8: 1,6 / 5,11 / 1,6 / 2,5,7,8,9,11 x $2.50 =12.50%
The two Sydney fillies the 6-MIRAVALLE, 1-MONTEFILIA should fight out the feature Oaks, but we think there are two good value roughies that are likely to be in the first four in the 5-SALTO ANGEL and 11-VILANCULOS so anchor these and rotate them through the placings and hope something at value runs into fourth like the 8-BIARCHI or 9-STAR OF EDEN.
Race 1: 2-NOVEMBER DREAMING, 7-TRALEE ROSE, 8-PERENNIAL
Race 2: 2-TEMPEST CHARM, 12-NICE FOR WHAT, 4-CLOUDY
Race 3: 7-FIESTA, 6-ANCESTRY, 8-VILLAMI
Race 4: 10-MR MONEY BAGS, 4-IRISH FLAME, 8-PANCHO
Race 5: 3-SKY PUNCH, 5-MR TIPLA, 7-OUR GIRL SILKE
Race 6: 3-I AM ELOQUENT, 4-STROME, 9-RED LIGHT ROXANNE
Race 7: 8-VUNGERS, 17-TATUNKA (emerg), 4-KAPLUMPICH, 15-LORD MARKEL
Race 8: 6-MIRAVALLE, 1-MONTEFILIA, 5-SALTO ANGEL
Race 9: 2-BELLA NIPOTINA, 6-WRITTEN BEAUTY, 11-HIGHLY DISCREET