|FLEMINGTON : OAKS DAY - 4th November 2021|
|Track: SOFT(6) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: OUT 5M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Substantial rain forecast for Weds and we will almost certainly been looking at a genuine wet track for Thursday so we are doing the form for a track the worse side of soft. There has been a distinct pattern this week of winners coming along the rails from well back, not much has actually ran on out wide and won. With the rail going OUT 5M you would think they will be coming well off the rails in the straight on a wet track and runners on should have their chance. Expect wider to be better down the straight races.
Derby Day was a wipe-out, but Melbourne Cup day was pretty good and still stinging from being live in the last leg of the Suggested Quaddie for several $1,000+ collects for only a $20 outlay and not landing the last leg. More even fields today so not as confident and probably a day to spread the bets around a bit with lesser quality fields going around. We do also have some quite big fields that are likely to be torn apart by scratchings on a wet track, but wide open races so just some each way bets at double figure odds.
Normally the VRC Oaks is one of the best races to bet on all spring, these fillies have all been racing against each other and the form is exposed and you can line them up with confidence. This year though the 3YO fillies have been a mess and the form has been all over the place so doing the form with extreme caution. Generally though you just back the winner of the Wakeful and over the last 20 years, 12 winners of the Oaks have come though that race and 7 winners have won both races.
This is likely to be a pretty tough 2500M race on a slogging wet track, so think we want to look for genuine stayers. The speed is likely to be the 10-FABIOLA leading at $150 from the 3-DAISIES and 5-GONNADANCEALOT and just be wary here that those who drop too far back might struggle to make up ground on a very wet track. Actually donít be surprised if the rank outsider here the 10-FABIOLA leads and fights on pretty well.
Comment on each VRC Oaks runner:
1-ELUSIVE EXPRESS is coming through the Thousand Guineas which is stronger form than many of these, though the winner of that race flopped in the Wakeful here on Saturday. Strong finish to win the Edward Manifold here, and came with the winner at Caulfield but the winner went home stronger than she did. Has proven wet track form and is a strong finisher, bit of a query that the Thousand Guineas form hasnít really held up. Will she stay 2500M on a very wet track? Might have class on these though so winning chance.
2-WILLOWY was a very strong staying performance here on Saturday in the Wakeful and normally the winner of the Wakeful is the one you want to follow into the Oaks. Strong win before on a wet track at Newcastle so looks like will handle wet ground with no issues. Looks a solid staying type, will drop back here in a small field though so might be a matter of if she gives something on-speed too much of a head start. Jockey Oliver on board and he has won 3 out of the last 6 Oaks which is a pretty outstanding record. Slight concern is that she wasnít even set for this race, and they were unclear about running her after the win on Saturday. Strong chance.
3-DAISIES has been racing more consistently than most of these, tough staying win when went forward at Caulfield on a wet track and looked the winner till grabbed late here in the Wakeful. She actually meets the (2) 2kgs better off for a narrow defeat, and yet is longer odds than her Ė the odds look the wrong way around to us. Big plus with her is that she will go forward and stays and she handles it wet, comes into this race best at the weights and should be favourite in our opinion. One to beat.
4-BISCAYNE BAY has always looked a staying type and started running into form last start at Caulfield. Was well held there by the (3) though. Has solid wet track form, but will drop a long way back here and place best.
5-GONNADANCEALOT looked a likely type when she led and kicked and won impressively here in July, but just hasnít come up this time in. Likely to go forward here, but would have to improve dramatically to be a factor in this.
6-DOUCEUR didnít get much room two starts ago at Caulfield and the form from that race has held up well. Wasnít beaten very far at all here in the Wakeful on Saturday when fighting out the finish. Few things to like about her, she looks a strong finishing type, she is drawn wide to get into the best ground in the straight, and she is proven on very wet tracks. Think that puts her right in the finish here and she is the best roughie in the race.
7-GLINT OF HOPE has been around the finish this time in and bring JPN form lines into this, which might be the theme of the week after the impressive Derby winner on the weekend. Fought on well in the Edward Manifold, and again at Caulfield. Looks to handle it wet, but doubt barrier 1 will be any advantage late in the day and suspect others here have her covered. Place best.
8-TIZ MY BAY is one we have been following all spring and she has shown glimpses of form, but just struggles to finish it off. Seriously unlucky here three starts back when was held up behind runners, and had to cross heels to get into clear running and ran on well late, then ran into the race early at Caulfield on the bend and faded. Again here on Saturday she was finishing on well, she came from well back, but was just racing a bit erratically and doesnít seem to have quiet sorted out what racing is all about yet. She looks to be a strong finisher, and to be honest, if she put it all together think she would probably win this. Good rough chance.
9-BLACKCOMB is still trying to get out from a disastrous Hill Smith Stakes over in Adelaide when she got stuck behind a small field going slowly as $1.80 favourite. Solid here three starts back running on strongly late, and happy to forgive the run in the tough slog that was the MV Vase. Wet track could be an issue for this one. Likely to drop back from an outside barrier and run on late, probably is an outside chance here.
10-FABIOLA is a tough staying type who hit the lead early at Cranbourne and fought on OK and then raced erratically but still won at Benalla. Wet track might be an issue for her. Likely to go forward here and will stick on OK, and considering the way the 3YO fillies have been racing donít think she should be $150 against these. Rough place chance at massive odds.
11-MORRISETTE hasnít been too far behind these this spring, but has been well held. Worked home OK here two starts back, but the (8) went past her comfortably, and worked home OK again at Caulfield. Wet track looks to be a serious issue for her though and prefer to risk.
Normally we have a pretty confident bet in this race, but with the lead up form being all over the place, likelihood of a very wet track and them coming off the rails, think we are likely to get a value result this year. So we are going to push for the 6-DOUCEUR as top pick, no luck at Caulfield two starts back, and then right in the finish here on Saturday, but mainly she looks like she will handle it very wet and like that she had drawn outside to sit just behind the speed and swoop around them in the straight. The 3-DAISIES is the one to beat, racing on-speed with a weight drop from the Wakeful, and we have to stick with the 8-TIZ MY BAY who we have been following and she has just been doing a few things wrong, if she works it all out think she probably wins. Obvious danger is the Wakeful winner with Oliver on board in the 2-WILLOWY, just a little concerned how far back she drops in this, and donít be surprised if the rank outsider here the 10-FABIOLA runs a lot better than the current $150 odds suggest. Planning to have something each way on the top pick and a box quinella in a race where we donít want to bet too seriously on and looking for a value collect.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 6-PARISIAN DANCER $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 1,4,6,8 boxed x $3 = 50%
Strong finisher with genuine wet track form and even better, genuine wet track form over longer trips.
Think that means she will be very strong at the end of the race today against a lot of others who are queries at the distance or unknown. Drawn middle to come to the outside and finish on down the middle of the track which is likely to be the racing pattern. Back each way at around $10, and kick off the day with a nice value box quinella with the 1-DERIVE who is another strong finisher drawn out, the favourite the 8-AMERICAIN ANGEL who will be hard to beat, and the 4-SHOWTIME LADY with Sydney form leading
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 5-DJUKON $3 EW
This one has been racing a lot better than the form guide suggests. Ran up behind them on the inside 1st up and had nowhere to go, worked home nicely 2nd up on a track that was favouring those on-speed and never a chance on a dynamite leaderís track at MV last start. Finally gets to a suitable race here and should be strong at the end of 1800M at around $11.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 3-DECENT RAINE $4 EW
This is the main bet of the day and think the odds at the moment are just wrong. Flew home late at MV two starts back in a Group race that she probably should have won, and then went to Sydney and was held up badly on the rails for most of the straight before getting clear late. Has a 5L Echuca heavy track win to her form so she should handle it wet, and drawn out to finish strongly down the middle of the track. Been racing in much better races than this Ė and racing well, and stuffed if we can work out why she is $14. Oh yeah Ė and she also drops 3kgs from the last run, and meets the (9) who is half the odds some 4kgs better off. Best form, best weighted, best drawn to the track pattern, handles the conditions Ė and you are getting $14! Confident each way bet.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 6-REAL SENSATION $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 6-REAL SENSATION#4,9,12,14 x $2 = 50%
Absolute monster of a field here for the country final, but this one has always shown a lot of ability. Excellent strong win from well back here back in April coming off an unlucky run at MV. First-up under a big weight he ran on really well, and meets the favourite the (2) 2.5 kgs better for only a 0.3L defeat. Strong finisher, drawn wide, stack of speed in this race will suit, not clear if he handles it wet or not. Each way at around $10 and anchor in a quinella with the runaway leader the 4-DO YOU RECKON who is also well weighted, the strong-finishing 9-BERMADEZ, the 12-TYPOOHN HARMONY who can mix his form but was flying late last start and the 14-HELLO BROADCAST.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 5,8,10,11,15 boxed x $5 = 50%
Goodness knows how the track will be racing coming into Race 9 with a field of 16 x 3YO fillies down the straight, but definitely looks a race where you want to look for some value. Assume the outside rail will be faster, so just look towards the outside barriers. The 10-ASHEMA was SCR Tuesday to be keep for this (and assume that was because they saw the forecast rain), the 5-NAJMATY is a strong finisher that has been racing in harder races, the 8-PICARONES drawn wide and strong finisher down the straight, the 11-A VERY FINE RED has good Sydney form, and the 15-SPINNING is drawn widest and was pretty unlucky last start at Caulfield. Just try and pop a value quinella in the last race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 9-DEFIANT DANCER $2 EW
Talented sprinter who has won well down the straight before, seems to go OK on wet ground and has been prepared for this 1st up with two barrier trials. Drawn wide down the straight which might be the better going and can sit off a fast speed here, so if they go too fast in front he may lengthen down into the race at around $27.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 6-DOUCEUR $2.50 EW
Unlucky at Caulfield two starts back when no room on the inside rail and a few from that race have gone well since, and then was right in the finish here on Saturday in the Wakeful. Likely to race handy here, drawn wide to swoop around them into the better ground in the straight, and looks like she will handle a seriously wet track with no dramas. Looks a nice rough bet at around $16 in a race where anything can probably happen.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 16-ESPIONA at around $2
Seriously? Even money? Sure she was impressive winning at her only start in Sydney, but that was a field of five. Melbourne way of going for the first time, 1400M for the first time, capacity field of 16 horses she has never raced against before and drawn inside on a track where the wider may be better. May she win? Possibly. Is this the sort of race where you should be backing an even money favourite Ė definitely not.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into the prize pool for a Sydney novelty race.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 2,3,6,8,10 x $5 boxed = 50%
Letís keep it nice and simple and it is amazing how often you can pick up a $100+ collect off a simple 5 horse box quinella. The 3YO filly form have been really messy this year, on traditional form lines the 2-WILLOWY and 3-DAISES are the ones to beat, but on a wet track with them coming out wide in the straight, donít be surprised to see those them from Saturday the 6-DOUCEUR, 8-TIZ MY BAY in the finish and we have a strong suspicion the rank outsider here the 10-FABIOLA may lead and kick on better than the $150 odds suggest. Looking for an upset result and a value quinella.
Races 6,7,8,9: 8,9,11 / 4,6,9,12,14 / 3,6 / 5,8,10,11,15,17,18 x $20 = 9.5%
We deserved better here on Cup Day when we got the quaddie tactics spot on and had six horses running for nice collects in the last leg, but couldnít find the winner. Letís do similar again today, you want to come home wide in the last leg straight races where often anything can happen and there is a good chance of a value winner. We need to be brave here and just go narrow in the first leg, where the favourite the 8-MALKOVICH looks hard to beat, and the 11-VARDA has good wet track form and went to the slower inside last start, and our roughie 9-DEFIANT DANCER. Go wide in the second leg and add as many as you can afford, and narrow it down in the Oaks to the top two chances - 6-DOUCEUR, 3-DAISIES (one at value, one the favourite). Which means we can load up the last leg with as many wide barriers as we want, so letís go 10-ASHEMA, 5-NAJMATY, 8-PICARONES, 11-A VERY FINE RED, 15-SPINNING, 17-XTRA GEAR and 18-NICCOLITE. Again just hoping to get the last leg with some nice approximates and barracking home a blow-out result.
Race 1: 6-PARISIAN DANCER, 8-AMERICAIN ANGEL, 1-DERIVE
Race 2: 2-FOXY FRIDA, 1-SIRILEO MISS, 3- ZING
Race 3: EARLY 2YO RACE. MASK UP
Race 4: 5-DJUKON, 8-FIFTH POSITION, 13-SALTPETER
Race 5: 3-DECENT RAINE, 9-ROOTS, 14-ROMANY ROCKS
Race 6: 8-MALKOVICH, 11-VARDA, 9-DEFIANT DANCER
Race 7: 6-REAL SENSATION, 12-TYPHOON HARMONY, 9-BERMADEZ
Race 8: 6-DOUCEUR, 3-DAISIES, 8-TIZ MY BAY
Race 9: 10-ASHEMA, 5-NAJMATY, 8-PICARONES