|FLEMINGTON: OAKS DAY - 3rd November 2022|
|Track: SOFT(7) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 5M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Pretty messy day racing on Tuesday with punter’s left scrambling when the track initially came up much firmer than expected, and then we had to flip again when the rain came through earlier than anticipated and it was seriously hard to find a winner (as it often is every Melbourne Cup Day). Definitely was an advantage to be off the rails, and those with outside barriers and swooping late were definitely favoured and that is likely to be the pattern again today. They will come off the rails early in the day, and outside will be the place to be down the straight so elevate chances with outside barriers and that racing pattern. From a punting point of view this is probably not a day for a serious bet with some extremely open races so a good day to play with some roughies and we have found lots of good value runners in the selections and suggested bets.
VRC Oaks Preview
The VRC Oaks is normally a pretty straight forward betting race, the best run from the Wakeful invariably wins and in fact the winner of the Wakeful has won the Oaks 12 times in the last 30 years. It is worth noting though that the race schedule has changed this year and the Spring Champion in Sydney is later on and we don’t normally have fillies racing in this coming through that race. Most of these have been racing against each other so it is easy to line up the form and have a confident bet.
Runner by runner comments
1-SHE’S EXTREME is the classy Sydney sider and we saw in the Derby that the Sydney form dominated and ran the quinella. She is coming through the Spring Champion so the same race as those two so probably has the strongest form lines here. She was unlucky in that race too, was running around a bit and took a while to get into clear running and worked home well to just miss the Derby runner up. Excellent wet track form, so does look the one to beat here, only query may be the inside barrier in a race where they will most likely get off the rails. Hard to beat.
2-ZENZELLA has come on the scene very quickly, winning the Wakeful here on Saturday off a synthetic maiden win. Normally that sort of form would be questionable but she was very well backed on Saturday, and it was a really tough win when she was left in front a long way out on-speed and held off the second horse for the length of the straight. Have to respect the Wakeful winner going into this race, and she will race on-speed just a bit concerned she may be run down late here by something finishing strongly out wide.
3-RENAISSANCE WOMAN was a really tough staying performance to win at Caulfield coming from well back and swooping around the field and quite liked the Spring Champion run where she was very easy in the betting but worked home pretty well in a strong field. In a way this run was pretty similar to the Derby winner who actually finished behind her and she looks a true staying type who is going to be suited to 2500M on a wet track. We can line up Sydney and Melbourne form through her and the Sydney form does look stronger. Strong chance finishing over the top of them late.
4-PAVITRA was a tough effort on-speed at Caulfield when the winners swooped straight past her out wide and then she fought on really well here on Saturday in the Wakeful where it did look like she was going to wear down the winner. She will go forward and lead here which might be an ask over 2500M on a wet track, but do suspect she will beat home the (2) today. Chance.
5-FOXY CLEOPATRA is extremely lightly raced coming into this at only her 4th start and her first racing preparation and that does leave the doubt over whether this has come up too quickly. Dominant win at MV followed up tough swooping finish with the (3) at Caulfield which does suggest she will stay the 2500M. The (3) came from behind her last start and was holding her off on the line so do prefer that one. Just wonder if the end of a tough wet track 2500M might find her out at start number 4? Place only.
6-LET’SBEFRANKBABY does have a bit of ability, but keeps finding a few better. Bogged down in the heavy going at Flemington when burst through on the inside which was the worse going, peeled out from the pack at Caulfield and looked like she was going to run into the race but didn’t go on and then worked home well on the outside here on Saturday but was well held by many going around today. Has ability, but wants a firm track. Place only.
7-AS TIME GOES BY has been progressing nicely through her races and you get the feeling she might yet do something this preparation. Stuck on well after struggling to get off rails in the Edward Manifold and then peeled out and loomed up nicely in the Wakeful and note jockey thought action was not right there at the end of the race. Maiden who seems to still be improving, again meeting others here who has beaten her home last few starts. Place preferred.
8-QUEEN AIR is not only a maiden, but coming into this at only start number 4 and has yet to run a place in her career to date. MV run was good late and then seemed to be battling here on Saturday and then found another gear and hit the line strongly suggesting she will stay. Probably under the odds at $8 in current betting but she is some rough chance based on that effort.
9-SIRIUS PRINCESS is a staying filly who is still a maiden but has plenty of kms in her legs so might stuck on OK. Would have to improve a lot to be a factor here.
10-MAKRANA is a maiden who has been well held last two runs by many going around here. No
11-ALBANIAN ICON is another maiden and only at start number 4. Stuck to task well last start when well beaten but was very sharply up in distance that day and should have plenty of improvement to come. Actually no reason why she can’t run top 4 here at $200 so throw her in your wide exotics.
We have a field of 11 here and 5 of them are maidens, so stick to the class horses. Really comes down to the two fillies coming through the Spring Champion the 1-SHE’S EXTREME and the 3-RENAISSANCE WOMAN and that race proved the superior form line in the Derby. This might be one year where the Wakeful form doesn’t line up, interesting that in last 30 years no winner has come through the Spring Champion, but that has been mainly a scheduling issue so we might see that pattern change over the next few years with that race now being run later in the season. The 3-RENAISSANCE WOMAN has come to Melbourne and beaten most of these so we can line up the form lines, and she does look a really solid staying type who will be suited by the 2500M and pretty keen to back her today at $9, from the classy 1-SHE’S EXTREME who might need to get off the rails and into the better going and suspect the 4-PAVITRA is the best on-speed out of the Wakeful from Saturday. Suspect the two Sydney hoses fight out the finish here, so will back the 3-RENAISSANCE WOMAN straight out and take some exotics as in a field with a long tail one of the bolter maidens probably lobs into a placing somewhere.
BEST EACH WAY: 3-RENAISSANCE WOMAN $4 EW
Really solid staying type who beat most of these last visit to Melbourne and then competitive in very strong form race in Sydney last start. Looks like will be suited over the 2500M on a wet track and will be finishing on late out wide likely to be the racing pattern. Each way at around $9.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 14-RIGHT YOU ARE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 14-RIGHT YOU ARE#9,11,12 x $3 = 100%
Horse with a good career strike rate who should be ready to win now with the two runs in, which have both been good. Last start raced on-speed and was fighting out the finish before fading late, but should have plenty of improvement to come from this. Just looks ready to win at around $6 and save on a quinella with the improving 12-SAINT BATHANS, the strong finishing 11-FIFTH POSITION, and the staying mare 9-DOUCEUR.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 14-RAZETA $3 EW
Sydney visitor who was weaving and dodging through the field last start along the inside last start when making good ground. Fitter for the two runs in, well-drawn, and can sit off a good speed here and run on late out wide. Looks great value at around $20 and suspect she will start shorter come race time.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 9-DUNALLEY $1.50 EW
Staying mare who is fitter for the two runs in and has a win this time in, and suited getting out in distance. Proven over longer distances than most of these and likely to be finishing on strongly so looks a good rough chance at $35.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 19-FLASH FEELING (emerg) $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 8,9,13,16,19 boxed x $5 = 50%
Currently third emergency with two scratchings so must be a decent chance of getting a start. This is a really big and even 1600M country mile race so it makes sense to look for value here. Last start was widest runner in the straight and worked home well. Strong finisher who handles it wet, drawn wide here, but he is a drop back and run on out wide horse so that probably suits better and likely to be the racing pattern and looks a good roughie at $25. Aim for a big box quinella with roughies like 8-NO SURRENDER, 16-MI ROCK ALY, and the more favoured runners 13-CORONA LAD, 9-PROWLING.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 15-YOWIE $1.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 2,5,12,13,15 boxed x $5 = 50%
Last race of the day and we have a capacity field of 3YO fillies going down the straight so chance of a double figure winner is pretty high. This one simply got lost at MV last start, ended up back and wide on a leader’s track and came wide in the straight and worked home well but had no chance the way the race was run. Strong finisher suited down the straight and worth something rough at $51 odds. Again just a grab bag of wide barriers 5-EXO LADY, 12-BAY THIRTEEN and in form horses 2-ENGLISH RIVERA, 13-LA DANSEUSE ROUGE to try and snare a big quinella.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 14-TOREGENE at around $5
Big open country mile field and probably the sort of race where you want to play with a few at double figure odds rather than back the favourite. Does have a lot of upside, but first try over 1600M and was SCR at the barrier recently so going into this race one run short in preparation. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a designer outfit for Fashions On The Field
FIRST FOUR: Race 8: 1,3 / 1,3 / 4,6,7,8 / 2,4,6,7,8,11 x $5 = 12.5%
Suspect the two Sydney horses 3-RENAISSANCE WOMAN, 1-SHE’S EXTREME will fight out the Oaks, and there is a good chance one of the roughies lands in the First Four in a field where half of them are maidens and all are out to the distance for the first time. If so, we end up with a decent First Four dividend.
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,3 / 6,8,9,11,13,16,19 / 1,3 / 2,5,12,13,15.16 x $20 = 11.9%
This looks a gettable quaddie where you can narrow down the first and third legs to 3-ZOUSTYLE, 1-KALLOS and 3-RENAISSANCE WOMAN, 1-SHE’S EXTREME respectively. The other two legs are close to impossible so just load up with roughies and hope for a result.
Race 1: 9-DUNALLEY, 1-ARKTIKA, 11-SAVAGAL
Race 2: TWENTY 2YOS DOWN THE STRAIGHT !!
Race 3: 8-ROOTS, 12-CLIMBING STAR, 4-SUR LA MER
Race 4: 14-RAZETA, 2-MUMBAI JEWEL, 11-HELL HATH NO FURY
Race 5: 14-RIGHT YOU ARE, 12-SAINT BATHANS, 11-FIFTH POSITION
Race 6: 3-ZOUSTYLE, 1-KALLOS, 8-ASHFORD STREET
Race 7: 19-FLASH FEELING (emerg), 13-CORONA LAD, 16-MI ROCK ALY, 9-PROWLING
Race 8: 3-RENAISSANCE WOMAN, 1-SHE’S EXTREME, 4-PAVITRA
Race 9: 2-ENGLISH RIVERA, 15-YOWIE, 12-BAY THIRTEEN