|FLEMINGTON: OAKS DAY - 9TH NOVEMBER 2023|
|Track: SOFT(5)- Weather: CLOUDLY - Rail: OUT 5M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Few decent storms around on Weds afternoon and clear but cool for Thursday, so we get a track with bit of give here. You would expect this track is going to start to cut up a bit and the best going will be off the rails in the straight. Down the straight probably still middle to outside the better going.
You may have noticed that the Turf Deli tips over Derby Day and Cup Day were nothing short of abysmal. Not only did the Suggested Bets suffer two wipe outs (with a few bets even finishing tailed off), there wasn't a single winner on top, and only one winner in the selections from 18 races. Literally the worse ever.
Just to top off the week we are with Optus. So the really bad news for punters is that our internet is back up and running again, which means we are posting Oaks Day tips.
From a punting point of view we have some monster fields that are pretty even, so there are sure to be some big dividends today. So lets try for some value runners in those races and even a box quinella will probably pay OK, but you may have to go wide.
Reminder that at the moment for Spring Campaign 2023 we wonít be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post and will be out the night before the race for most days.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 6-CLIMBING STAR $5 WIN
This one was showing a lot of promise last spring, and ran 2nd in this race last year, but has had some form flops since (and taken us down with her a few times). Couldnít get a clear run here two starts back and then chased hard behind the leader all the way to the line at Caulfield. We have been staying away till she strikes a track with some give in it, which she does today. Small field, can go forward and camp on the speed and looks the one to beat there at around $3.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 4-BRAZEN LADY $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 4-BRAZEN LADY#1,6,7,13 x $2 = 50%
Hopelessly unlucky at Geelong last start when she was held up, and tightly held up for pretty much the entire straight and looked to have plenty to give. Racing consistently, will jump and sit on-speed here and should get the run of the race. Is out to 1700M for the first time, so guess the query is if there is something that runs out a distance that comes over the top late. Back each way at around $9 and anchor in a quinella with the 1-STARIANNE who stays and has some class, the 6-KIPYEGON as the strong finishing stayer, the 7-MATRIARCH ROSE who will come down the outside and is the main danger and the improving 13-KALEA.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 6-ROGUE ROCKER $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 6,10,11,15,16 boxed x $5 = 50%
This one has been racing extremely well the last six months and put in some extraordinary performances and really deserves a win. Really strong late at Geelong off a let-up, start before at Caulfield probably should have won as couldnít get clear before the turn and flashed home late, and has consistently been bursting through the pack from well back in many of his runs. This looks the ideal race setup today, drawn out, runners on winning, to Flemington, really strong speed in a big field and keen to back each way at around $8. Sure to be a value quinella in a big field with the 10-PICAROON who will camp on the speed in clear running, the improving 15-MAGNUPUR, the consistent on-speed 11-SOARING EAGLE with an excellent 1600M record and letís throw in a $100 shot in the 16-MERE FANCY who will be strong off a fast speed and is the offspring of dear old TICKLE MY who ran some great races here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 13-SEB SONG $4 EW
This one seems to constantly go around at double figure odds, but is racing better than ever at the moment. Has a great finishing burst, and only got out late and just missed running down the leader and winner last start, and good win off a tempo at Caulfield three starts back. First try at 1800M, but not sure they will go that quickly here and will be suited if they are winning running on. Each way at around $11.
QUINELLA: Race 5: 10-NAJEM SUHAIL#3-ATHELRIC, 1-SPACEWALK x $3 = 150%
This one is well known for his speed and ran them along here at a massive lead on Saturday before just fading late. Drop back to 1000M suits and if he goes just as hard will be hard to beat. Drawn middle to outside and we want to see him going hard and to a clear lead again. Quinella probably pays OK with the 3-ATHELRIC who should camp right on the speed in a good spot, and the 1-SPACEWALK who chased him down on Saturday, but might not quite get there today back in distance.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 11-RICKS CAF… $2.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 4,6,11,18 boxed x $3 = 50%
This one has been racing really well last few campaigns and may be a little under-rated. Was flashing home late at the end of the Pinker Pinker where they went really hard in front, she became detached and wide and flew home. Given no chance up in class and distance in the Bendigo Cup when made a long and early mid-race move out wide. Well drawn here, she can come down the middle of the track and big plus is a bit of give in the ground. Back each way at around $13 and another race with a nice value quinella with the strong finishing 4-FOUJITA SAN who had no chance the way the track raced at Caulfield last start, the consistent 18-FIRE GLO TOO and watch out for the roughie 6-TYCOON BEC here who was really strong 1st up at Sandown and will get a good on-speed run.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 9: 8-HOLYMANZ at around $4
Good miler who gets out to the 1800M for the first time, but not sure he is racing in his best form this time in and just seems a little short at this price.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a reliable communications network.
TRIFECTA: Race 8: 2/ 4,6,8 / 3,4,5,6,7,8,13 x $5 = 27.77%
The Oaks trifecta might actually pay OK, even though the favourite looks hard to beat there isnít much between the rest of the field, so take the main place chances and hope a roughie like the 6-COCO SUN gets into the finish somewhere.
Races 7,8,9,10: 3,6,10,11,12,15,16 / 1,3,7,10,13 / 2,8 / 4,9,13 x $20 = 9.5%
Pretty wide open quaddie again and we will need to load up the first leg and hope for a result, and straight race 2nd leg is always wide open. Narrow it down to just the two best Wakeful runs 2-ZARDOZI, 8-AETHELFLAED in the Oaks and come home on a good mix of favs and roughies in the last.
Feature Race Preview:
The Oaks is the most straight forward race on the racing calendar, the winner of the Wakeful wins just about every year (or the best run from that race). Like the Derby we have a long tail of horses here with very little chance. Unfortunately we donít have AUTUMN ANGEL going around who was probably the strongest of the lead-in form. There are two obvious leaders here, both from the Waterhouse stable in the 1-TROPICAL SQUALL and 3-AMAZONIAN LASS and canít imagine they are going to go that quick in this as they wonít want to knock each other out. Sitting handy is the 4-SERVED COLD and 11-PEAKY RIDGE from the 14-EVERLASTING KISS and most of these will be dropping back and will want a solid tempo up front to turn it into a solid staying contest. The favourite the 2-ZARDOZI should settle better than mid-field with a box seat into the race.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-TROPICAL SQUALL is a classy Sydney filly who jumped clear at Caulfield and was ridden aggressively to the lead and that may have contributed to her fading over the last 50M. Likely to lead again here, though does have the stable mate the (3) for company today. No need to go so aggressively in front and this race will probably be run at a much more moderate tempo. Think the one who ran her down last start is pretty smart, and she held off the rest of them and drops in weight into this race. Will need to control the tempo to win, has to be some doubt at her over the 2500M and if the rails are off and they come off the rails on the turn, that just leaves her more exposed to something staying over the top of her. Probably prefer to risk her, but the issue is there might not be much to beat her in this field.
2-ZARDOZI only just failed to run down a tear away leader on a leader biased track on Saturday and won the Edward Manifold before that. Really the Manifold/Wakeful form is a sure fire success template into the Oaks. Does meet the Wakeful winner the (3) 2kgs better off for a narrow and closing margin when just missed. No luck at Sandown three starts back when stuck on the rails with no runs. Looks a staying type with a class turn of foot and can sit off these and run over them in the straight. One to beat.
3-AMAZONIAN LASS caused an upset here with a well-judged front riding ride to win the Wakeful and wasnít beaten far by the (2) in the Edward Manifold. Has to cross from outside barrier here to go forward and stable will have to play favourites and decide who is going to lead in this with the (1) being the other potential leader. Always have to respect the Wakeful winner, and getting $10 about the Wakeful winner in the Oaks is pretty amazing odds, normally they start around $2.50. The (2) does look to have her covered today, but may be worth a saver just because she is the Wakeful winner.
4-SERVED COLD has always been on an Oaks path after her impressive Geelong maiden win. Jumped and led at Flemington when a $1.70 favourite, but got pestered in the lead by a $200 shot which bought her unstuck and the leaders had no chance that day. Won the Geelong Classic in a small field and whilst that form isnít normally a good guide for the Derby, it may be OK for the Oaks. Had the race won on the turn at Geelong, and can sit off the speed here and get a similar run. Have to respect the stable, and like that she is coming through a different form line. Strong chance.
5-HARLOW MIST looks a really solid staying type and have to respect the Sydney stable in the filly staying races where they have a great record. Strong win here three starts back, dropping back in distance to a small field didnít suit the start after in Sydney, and chased hard here on Saturday in the Wakeful even though the (2) did go straight past her in the run. Looks a really solid staying type and would want a tough slogging race with them coming off the rails. Rough chance, prefer place.
6-COCO SUN was ridden forward in the Ethereal which the stable thought was a mistake, so was restrained and ridden colder here on Saturday in the Wakeful. On a leaders track that meant she had effectively no chance, she did give these a big head start and stayed on OK to the line. Does seem to prefer it wet, but she may get those conditions. She does look to be covered here, but she is a really good rough place chance at $50 running on late and staying the distance.
7-BASILINNA chased home well along the rails in the Edward Manifold and then strong run from well back to place in the Ethereal. Jockey Oliver on board and he has won this race an amazing 7 times and this is probably his best chance to win one of the feature Group 1s during Cup Week, so think you need to consider her on that point alone. Likely to drop back from inside barrier, so will need a good run. Chance.
8-AETHELFLAED was really strong in the Wakeful on Saturday and apart from the favourite she was probably the best run of the race. Came from last at the 300M to stay strong and pull a lot of ground to the line. Out to 2500M should suit, interesting that Oliver has jumped off this one to ride the (7)? But Cup winning jockey on board now. Drawn out and likely drops back, but think they will be able to run on out wide today. Just needs them to run along in front and make this a solid staying contest, so thatís the question mark, but form looks good. Chance.
10-ETHEL MAUDE won her maiden easily at Pakenham but probably didnít beat much there. Eye-catching run at Flemington three starts back running on late (but that was the pattern that day). Worked home well in the Manifold, but there a few here with similar form and they were well held by the main chances. Likely to drop back and should stay and run on, not sure she is good enough to win this as she does seem to be covered based on lead up runs.
11-PEAKY RIDGE has had only the three career starts and coming into this off a Warrnambool maiden win. Can sit handy to the speed here, but hard to see her measuring up.
12-VIESTE went around in the Wakeful on Saturday at $200 and ran up to those odds beaten 20L. Hard to see her turning around that margin in under a week.
13-ANOTHER YOU is a maiden, but some of the horses that have been beaten her go OK, ROLL ON HIGH, GRINZNGER BELLE, AZTEC STATE have all measured up in the city. Plugged along OK at Caulfield and was strong at the end of 2000M start before that at Ballarat. Probably wants it wet and a solid tempo and she can finish first four as a roughie.
14-EVERLASTING KISS is a maiden who can race handy, but was well beaten at Caulfield and another who is unlikely to improve enough to be a factor in this.
Pretty hard to see the 2-ZARDOZI getting beaten here coming off the run in the Wakeful on Saturday and she has the turn of foot to offset any slow tempo issues. At around $3 she is actually backable as well and this is the one race of the year we are happy to get on a short priced favourite. Main danger is the 8-AETHELFLAED as the next best run from the Wakeful, and the 4-SERVED COLD should get a pretty good run just off the speed and present into the race at the right time. Best rough is actually the 6-COCO SUN who just hasnít got into the right race position to show her best the last few starts. Happy to just play with trifectas here with the top pick to win, these for second and wide for third.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO Ė NO BET
Race 2: 4-BRAZEN LADY, 7-MATRIARCH ROSE, 6-KIPYEGON
Race 3: 11-RICKS CAF…, 4-FOUJITA SAN, 18-FIRE GLO TOO
Race 4: 6-CLIMBING STAR, 2-FOXY FRIDA, 7-OUR EMPRESS ZOE
Race 5: 10-NAJEM SUHAIL, 3-ATHELRIC, 1-SPACEWALK
Race 6: 6-ROGUE ROCKER, 10-PICAROON, 15-MAGNUPUR
Race 7: 3-SALTAIRE, 13-EXCESS, 1-BOSSY NIC
Race 8: 2-ZARDOZI, 8-AETHELFLAED, 4-SERVED COLD
Race 9: 13-SEB SONG, 4-GREGOLIMO, 9-STARSPANGLED BABY