Astounding that we got back to a SOFT(5) track on Cup Day after so much rain and it was quite noticeable they were winning swooping late out wide. Sunny weather and a later start to the day and this track will firm up and rail goes OUT 6M. Suspect they will win running on again early, but just be cautious if the track dries out it might tend back towards those on-speed later. Down the straight the outside barriers should be the way to go.
We were right around the money on a frustrating Cup Day finding the last race winner as best each way, the best win bet finishing second and a $40 roughie just missing in A photo finish. That one hurt! This is actually a really good betting program and there is plenty to bet on here with big fields again.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 10-ENXUTO $5 WIN, QUINELLA 10-ENXUTO#6,7,8 x $3 = 100%
We tipped this one on Derby Day and he was pretty unlucky when he couldn’t get a clear run at the right time and finally got clear and poked through for third late. He would have challenged the winner if he had got out. The Golden Rule of Cup Week (apart from ignoring all the racing media talking up the international runners) is to always get on horses who have raced well who are backing up again within the week. Tick. Inside barrier, but he likes the track and distance and loves to weave through the field. Back straight out at around $4 and anchor in a quinella with the strong finishing 7-REGAL AZMON who is a great value chance, the consistent 6-OH TOO GOOD and the talented 8-POISION CHALICE who was beaten favourite in this race last year.
BEST WIN: Race 3: 9-MOONLIGHT CIRCUS $5 WIN
There are quite a few we like today but backing this one straight out to squeeze them all into the $50 budget. She has been racing extremely well, didn’t get around the bend at MV two starts back when coming home well late and then ridden more forward and chased well late last start. Flemington 1600M is very big tick for this one, but she will need enough speed on and for them to be winning running on. She runs the mile out stronger than many of these and watch for her late at around $7 straight out.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 8-I ONLY WISH $4 EW
Talented mare who needs a few runs in every time to find her best form. She ran home really well first-up and then was fair enough last start and looks ready to do something now. Ran some good city races last preparation, key here is that she doesn’t drop too far back from an outside barrier and they can win running on as she will come to the middle of the track. Each way at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 7-LIBERAMI $4 EW
One of our favourites and he has a powerful finishing burst when he is ready to win and that might be today. Another who always takes a few runs to find best form each time in, and he made really good ground late in a strong form Seymour Cup last start. Drawn wide, he will drop back and need them to be able to run on and win today and for there to be enough speed on, but when he is right he has a sensational finish and getting to Flemington is a very big tick. Each way at around $6.
QUINELLA: Race 7: 5-VEIN GIRL#7,8,9,12,14 x $5 = 100%
Short of funds to back this one each-way, so let’s try and land a value quinella. She has been racing extremely well and gave a great kick at Caulfield last start only to be run down in the last few metres. Drop back in distance suits, and despite the big field she may be left alone in front here and keep going. Anchor in a quinella with the favourite the 7-POINT BARROW who will drop back and will need to settle down the straight, there is a roughie we quite like in the 8-INVINCIBLE WOMAN who is drawn wide and may launch late, the 9-AKAYSHA is proven down the straight, and two long shots drawn wide in a big field the 12-PURE PASSION and the 14-NAIFAH.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 12-CLASSIC GEM $1 WIN, $3 PLACE
This one looks a genuine staying type who might grind home nicely in the Oaks in a race where they may run along a bit. Probably want to have more the place up against a short priced favourite who will be hard to beat, but she won’t be far off these and good chance of sneaking into the placings at odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: Race 2: 12-FEELING DUSTY $2 EW, QUINELLA 1,2,10,12 boxed x $3 = 50%
Lightly raced one in the All Greys race who looks to have a fair bit of potential and often these lightly raced ones with upside can run well in this race. Another who is drawn wide and will drop back and will need them to be running on, and he is probably better over a bit further, but may be able to run over the top of these fresh if the speed is on. Each way at around $11 and box up a quinella with 1-STATUARIO out of better races, the 2-CLOUDLAND who won this race last year and the 10-CHAKADO who is the likely leader here and may give a kick.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 11 BIG SEXY at around $4
We are in considerable trouble here with the Lay of the Day winning on both Derby Day and Melbourne Cup day. This one is drawn wide, normally likes to go forward and has never raced over a mile and we always prefer to go with proven 1600M horses in these sort of races. Surely in a 16 horse field something will come out and beat the favourite? Surely?
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a share in next year’s Melbourne Cup winner.
TRIFECTA Race 8: 1,4 / 12 / 1,2,4,5,6,7 x $2.50 = 25%
TRIFECTA Race 8: 1,4 / 1,2,4,5,6,7 / 12 x $2.50 = 25%
Let’s try for a trifecta in the Oaks with the roughie 12-CLASSIC GEM getting into the placings, but we need to hope that the second pick 4-JUST A JOURNEY topples the short priced favourite to get a decent dividend.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE
Races 6,7,8,9: 6,7,8,12,15,16 / 5,7,8,9 / 1,4 / 1,10,12 x $20 = 13.88%
Load up the first leg, fingers crossed in the second leg and just take one other to be the favourite in the Oaks. May not be a very big dividend today unless we can find a roughie early on.
Feature Race Preview: Race 8 VRC OAKS 2500M 3YOF GROUP 1
The VRC Oaks is pretty much a paradise for favourite punters, in the last 30 years the favourite has won 14 times and 23 winners have started $6 or shorter. The Wakeful Stakes stands up year after year as the strongest form reference in racing, with 20 winners having their lead up run in that race (12 won the Wakeful, 3 placed), but most of these winning favourites have started around the $2.50 range and have been backable odds for a confident bet in this race. Normally something runs them along here and they finish well-spaced out down the middle of the track in a true staying contest.
The speed here looks quite genuine with quite a few that can go forward or sit handy. The 10-VOTING RIGHTS is the likely leader from the 3-SPICY LU (assuming ridden more quietly today up in distance), with the main chances the 1-GETTA GOOD FEELING and 4-JUST A JOURNEY getting perfect runs into the race behind these.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-GETTA GOOD FEELING has won her last three starts against these and worthy to be the obvious favourite here coming off the Wakeful win on the weekend. That win was pretty much a non-event, she sat handy on the tempo, worked to the lead under a hold and had them struggling a long-way out. Highly competitive in the Thousand Guineas before that, and flashing win when stepping up in grade at Flemington the start before. Can jump and sit handy here and get the run of the race and extremely hard to see this one getting beaten. Only thing we will say is that we think she is a little too short, most of the favourites here have started around $2.50 and she just doesn’t quite capture the imagination for us. But looks the one to beat regardless.
2-THE PEARLS has really strong Sydney staying form and most importantly she represents a new form line to the Melbourne form dominated by the (1). Drawn wide and may prefer some give in the ground. She has been right in the finish of her last two starts, grinding away well and was competitive last start against the males. Really solid preparation for this. She keeps starting long odds though and not quite sure why, strong Sydney form like this going into the Oaks thought she would be shorter? Competitive chance in this.
3-SPICY LU led all the way to pinch the Ethereal last start against a short-priced favourite, and the track was favouring those on-speed that day and it was the ride that won the race. Form was even enough before that but well held by the (1) the only time they met. Looks the likely leader here again, but just think everything fell into place for this one last start and they were closing on her on the line. Has a good wining strike rate unlike many of these which is a plus. Would need a perfect ride and conditions again and just see others being stronger over the 2500M here. Risking.
4-JUST A JOURNEY was a beaten short-priced favourite at Caulfield last start when the leader controlled the race and she just couldn’t quite reel her in. Excellent run start before here at Flemington when she kicked and fought on well and she was only just grabbed on the line there by the (1). Drawn wide and likely to go forward here and sit handy and she just needs to run out the 2500M here. Think she is the main danger to the favourite and is capable of beating her here, there was only a fraction between them the last time they met and this one is going to start six times longer odds today so looks good value. Main danger.
5-ETHEREUM GIRL is one we thought would be right in this race, her first preparation form was excellent and her first-up run at Sandown was great when she was on-speed and fought out a bunched finished really strongly. Curious decision in the last two starts to ride her back in the field with cover, and she has pulled and over-raced and think she is much better rolling on the speed and toughing it out. Had no luck at all here on Saturday, she was held up for runs most of the straight and stewards queried the ride. She was probably the best run behind the winner from that race, hopefully they let her go forward today because if she is back and pulling again she won’t run this trip out. Melbourne Cup jockey on board and rough chance here. Rough.
6-SHEEZA DIVA has been dropping well back and working home moderately in her Sydney starts. Best form is on wet tracks. Drawn wide and probably drops well back here and likely to work home well again but not be competitive. Rough place.
7-STRICTLY BUSINESS made a long hard run to win her maiden, and then made good ground through the field here on Saturday and hit the line well in the Wakeful. Drawn wide and likely to drop well back here, which is always an ask but looks a staying type with some potential. Only the three career starts and only two runs this time in, and looking through the form charts every Oaks winner in the last 30 years has had at least three runs in this preparation. So hard to line up a really good run on Saturday which would put her right in this race. This may be coming up a bit too soon for her, but she looks one with lots of potential. Place only.
8-AFTER SUMMER has run in the same three lead-up races as the (12) and there hasn’t been much between them all spring. Took the lead and won at Flemington in a small field controlling the tempo and then sat on-speed and fought out the finish well at Caulfield. Likely to jump and sit handy here, but meeting the two who beat her home last start, and actually prefer the (12) as a staying type over this one with similar form. No.
9-ZOUCLAIRE is a maiden who has been well-held in her lead up runs, including last start at Caulfield when she just whacked away and the four who beat her home are all going around here and likely to beat her home again. Drawn barrier 1 and may settle more forward. Hard to see her being competitive here.
10-VOTING RIGHTS looks to roll forward and fought on OK here on Saturday, but hard to see her beating home the two who finished in front of her there. Ticks the Wakeful form line, Waterhouse stable runner and likely to go forward here again but looks safely held. No
11-MORISU OJO was tough wining her maiden and good late against the males at Flemington. Got too far back at Caulfield and she was working home OK in the inside better going, but was still well beaten. Looks a staying type, but meeting the first four from last start who all beat her home comfortably. No.
12-CLASSIC GEM is in her first preparation and she has been competitive pretty much every start this time in. She chased hard at Sandown, and again at Flemington the start after in a muddling run race, and quite liked the Caulfield run. She had to make a long hard run there out wide and was closing ground on the line and it was an on-speed day. She looks a true staying type who will appreciate Flemington and the 2500M here and will stay the journey. Still a maiden, but she is a great place bet here and maybe even a rough winning chance if they go too hard in front and she outstays them. Rough.
13-JANEY BOPPER is in her first preparation with only the three career starts and had to make a long hard chase at them last start. Pretty sure a high-weight maiden isn’t a traditional form line for the Oaks and unlikely to be a factor in this. No
Summary:
Looks a decent tempo here with a few that can go forward and probably want to be on something that can take the sit just behind them, and that’s likely to be the 1-GETTA GOOD FEELING and 4-JUST A JOURNEY. The 1-GETTA GOOD FEELING is obviously the one to beat here, and hard to see anything from the Wakeful beating her home, but still think she is too short so not really a betting proposition. Main danger is the 4-JUST A JOURNEY and she is a genuine chance of upsetting the favourite here and there is too much of a price discrepancy between them considering the margin the last time they met. The one we are keen to have a little something on at odds though is the 12-CLASSIC GEM as the genuine staying type off a strong tempo staying on down the middle of the track. Best rough is the 5-ETHEREUM GIRL who was the best run behind the winner in the Wakeful. Will probably have something each way on the 12-CLASSIC GEM and some trifectas around the top two chances winning and the others filling the placings.
Race 1: 8-I ONLY WISH, 12-FULL HAO, 14-REALIKA
Race 2: 12-FEELING DUSTY, 1-STATUARIO, 10-CHAKADO
Race 3: 9-MOONLIGHT CIRCUS, 1-OH DIAMOND LIL, 6-SNEAKY SUNRISE
Race 4: 7-LIBERAMI, 11-SHOCKLETZ, 6-ZIRYAB
Race 5: 10-ENXUTO, 7-REGAL AZMON, 6-OH TOO GOOD
Race 6: 15-LAKE VOSTOCK, 8-DUBAI WATCH, 12-FEARLESS WRITER
Race 7: 5-VEIN GIRL, 8-INVINCIBLE WOMAN, 7-POINT BARROW
Race 8: 1-GETTA GOOD FEELING, 4-JUST A JOURNEY, 12-CLASSIC GEM
Race 9: 1-REY MAGNERIO, 12-MANOLO BLING, 10-PRAIRE FLOWER
