Been a very mild week in Melbourne for Cup Week, Melbourne Cup day started out on a track with some give and then strongly favoured those closer to the rails as the track dried out, with the outside rail fastest down the straight. Fair bit of rain forecast for Weds, and showers during the Oaks race day so expecting this track to come up rain affected and in the SOFT range and for them to be coming off the rails down the middle of the track.
We finally landed a decent collect this spring on Cup Day, turning a $10 Cup Trifecta into $330 and the feature race preview was spot on the money and no, we are not going to back international horses we have never seen race here and never will. We still haven’t found a winner on top this week, and even worse checking back it has now been 44 races since we tipped a winner on top, which is unheard of, that isn’t just a statistical anomaly - it can only be a global conspiracy. And yes the Lay of the Day won again – but did we mention we got the Cup Trifecta?
In the 1990s/2000s Oaks Day used to be known for small fields and short-priced favourites, and we have a massive program here, but it is getting slaughtered with scratchings and that’s even before the wet track scratchings come through tomorrow. Somehow we have still ended up with a swag of short-priced favourites! Favourites have had a pretty good run this spring, but surely that is due to turn sometime?
Feature race preview for the Oaks at the bottom of this post. Tips for Stakes Day will be posted Saturday morning.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 2-ICE LADY $5 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 8: 3-QUICK FINISH $3 WIN
We are really keen to have a bet in the feature race, and it’s not on the two favourites. The 2-ICE LADY was the best run out of the Wakeful here on Saturday, pestered in the lead and still fought on really well and she can settle second here and chase the 3-QUICK FINISH today. That one was huge last week in the Derby and she should lead clearly again today and always follow horses backing up who have raced well during Cup week. Odds of $7 and $10 means we back both of them and still have a nice collect.
BEST WIN: Race 3: 10-ENCAP $4 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 3: 10-ENCAP#3,4,6,11 x $4 = 100%
We are going to be super brave here and back the enigmatic 10-ENCAP straight out, he has only won 2 times from 35 starts but has ran some fantastic races in feature miles. He can mix his form, but looked to be back to best last start and will be suited in a small field with a runners on pattern late. Back straight out at around $6 and anchor in a quinella with the other Sydney visitor the 4-TAVI TIME was SCR from Cup Day for this, the 11-CARTOON GRAVEYARD as the roughie who has good wet track form and may improve today, the 6-HARRY’S YACHT who was good late last start against some good horses, and the 3-PINSTRIPED into an easier race here as value.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 9-MISTY WHISPER $4 EW
The All Greys race is back on Oaks Day, and they always go fast in this race for some reason. This one is lightly raced and very promising and last start at Geelong he just took a little too long to wind up and get moving against a short priced favourite leading, but he made good round once he got into stride. Up in distance suits, well drawn, good speed here and will be coming down the middle of the track late at around $17.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 6-NOBLER $4 EW
Up against a short priced favourite here and these chased each other home last start and think there is too much difference between them in the market. This one won his last three starts before a break, and likes to drop back and run on which should be the racing pattern and the wet track will be no issue. Won’t be giving the favourite as much as a head start as last time. Each way at $8.
QUINELLA: Race 6: 1,3,6,10,13 boxed x $5 = 50%
These Country Cup Finals are always great betting races and there are a stack of good value chances in this, key is that a lot of these aren’t actually proven over 1600M so let’s stick to those who are. The 1-YAM will need a good ride from an outside barrier, but was excellent first-up when kicked for home and he was only run down late by one weaving through the pack. Loves it wet and hopefully goes forward here. The 6-BIG ROOSTER handles all track conditions and was good winning last start, the 10-FLYING MIKKI got too far back last start and ran on late (but he often does that), doesn’t win that often and not proven at the distance, but he just about always ends up in the finish. The 3-SPIRITED DEFENCE was strong late last start and the 13-OUR JUSTIFY is well drawn and right in the market here.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 9-RICK’S CAFÉ $2 EW
Big field to kick off the day, but this one has been racing well having placed in the Pinker Pinker last start and should be ready to do something with the two runs in. Loves tracks with some give and is proven over this distance, but will need a good ride from a wide barrier. Each way at around $46 to kick off the day and can’t believe she is the outsider in this field.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 10-LANDMARK $2 EW
This one is proven down the straight and has drawn the outside barrier which is likely to be the best going. Good trial leading into this and might be ready to do something first-up at around $16. We are a big fan of the favourite the 1-REY MAGNERIO, but just note this is the race last year over 1000M when he dropped back down the straight and the jockey spent far too long trying to get to the best ground before launching late, so hopefully jockey Pike gives it a better ride this year.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 14-YOURE NOT THE KING at around $2.50
We have six favourites today under $3 and three under two dollars, but we have found most of them in the selections, the only one we haven’t is the favourite of the All Greys race, so guess we are going with that runner. Nothing wrong with it’s form, but we prefer a few others. Also it’s You’re not Youre.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a truckload of Turf Deli caps for the crowds on the lawn.
VRC OAKS TRIFECTA: Race 8: 2,3 / 1,2,3,7,10 / 1,2,3,6,7,10,16 x $5 = 12.5%
Let’s try and continue the feature race trifectas in the Oaks, where we are keen to back the 2-ICE LADY, 3-QUICK FINISH as value and in a long, long tail something at $100 probably gets into the finish somewhere, so let’s barrack for the 7-CHURCHILL ROSE and 10-EXPENSIVE TASTE.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,3,4,6,10,13 / 1,2,3,15 / 1,2,3 / 1,10,11 x $20 = 9.25%
Go as wide as possible in the first leg where there is a high chance of a $20 plus winner and come home through the selections.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 8: VRC OAKS 2500M 3YO F GROUP 1
For the VRC Oaks, this is one of the strongest traditional form line races of the year and it’s always a great betting race, because the favourite so often wins. Mainly because the winner of the Wakeful on the Saturday has won the Oaks nine times since 2000, the second horse from the Wakeful has won four times and other horses from the Wakeful have also won four times, so often it is just a case of lining up the winner and the best run from the Saturday and having a confident bet. That being said we have a more diverse set of runners this year with fillies also coming through the Spring Champion and the Derby and we also have a much bigger field than usual so that may mix things up a bit.
The tempo here looks genuine and clear cut and two of the leading contenders will go forward, most likely the 3-QUICK FINISH leading with the 2-ICELADY sitting off her and then the favourite the 1-PROXIMA DEA will have to try and cross from an outside barrier and go forward, and the 7-CHURCHILL ROSE sitting handy. Good chance these are the ones who are going to fight out the finish too, so don’t think they will want to go too fast on these, they all know they are genuine winning chances.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-PROXIMA DEA is the short priced favourite from Sydney who is unbeaten in 5 career starts which is a pretty fair effort. Professional racehorse who lobs on-speed and gives herself every chance and she won the Spring Champion easily last start and the winner of the Derby was many lengths behind her. Some of her wins have been narrow in tight finishes, but she does keep on winning. The Oaks has been her mission all along, she just happened to win all her lead-up races. Wet track is no issue. Few negatives though, she is still in her first preparation and she has done a fair bit this time in, she has drawn barrier 19 here and she does like to go forward and there is a fair bit of speed in this race, and the reality is they all need to lose sometime (except for Black Caviar). Strong chance, but not sure this is the year you want to launch on an Oaks favourite in a field with some depth.
2-ICELADY has been racing really well this time in, chased hard against the winner in the Thousand Guineas and then the run here on the weekend in the Wakeful was huge – she was taken on in the lead, they dashed along in front, and she still kicked in the straight and was staying on really well to run third. She is well drawn and doesn’t have to lead here, she can sit second behind the leader and chase hard. With the second horse from the Wakeful not going on today, she may be the best run out of that race. Melbourne Cup winning jockey and trainer. Should handle it wet. She looks a really strong chance here and like the way she stuck on here on Saturday. Strong chance.
3-QUICK FINISH was an absolute massive run in the Derby and she fought on well when she was crossed in the lead and had to take a sit, before making a run in the straight, hitting the lead and really sticking on extremely well – the first three home there were pulling away from the rest of the field. Led and won her previous two starts and we thought that was just a race tempo and track pattern thing, so the strength of her run on Saturday really surprised us. Question mark is backing up within a week off a tough 2500M run as a 3YO filly, but the golden rule of Cup Week is to always get on horses who have ran well who are backing up again within the week. Good barrier here and she should lead and she is going to be hard to run down. Really can’t believe the $14 on offer here, thought she would be closer to favourite. Strong chance.
4-DE ARMAS won the Wakeful on Saturday and that is always the strongest form reference for this race and has been proven time and time again. Was good in the Thousand Guineas when racing in the pack and working home well late, and to be honest we just felt everything fell into place on Saturday, she had a good barrier and most of her main rivals were drawn wide, the leader got softened up and she just had to stroll through the pack to victory. She was good enough to it though. Interesting to note post-race comments that the other stable mates were the main Oaks contenders and they weren’t even sure this one would run 2000M. So not sure what to do with her, she has drawn well again and will get a perfect run into the race, and the Wakeful winner is normally a no questions asked top pick into the Oaks, but we just aren’t sure about this one this year. Chance.
5-VOYNICHESE has only been fair in the lead-up races and she was well held behind the main contenders here. Presented on the home turn at Caulfield and she just wasn’t good enough and given every chance here on Saturday when she just plugged away in the run home and held her ground. Well drawn, but still likely to drop back here and hard to see her improving to be a factor here. No
6-SALANN is still a maiden but she has run some great races and just tends to get too far back and leave her run too late. The 2YO runs were great and we were looking forward to see what she would do her in 3YO season. This time in she was disappointing first-up, hit the Turnbull heavy track second up, and then the Thousand Guineas run was excellent, she was last in a leader dominated rated, held up for runs, hooked out around the field and made really strong ground. Presented in the MV Vase and just ground away, but again so did most of them in the finish. Drawn wide and will drop back, but she looks a strong staying type and good rough place chance here. Rough place.
7-CHURCHILL ROSE is one we have been following and the run in the Hill Smith over in Adelaide was excellent when she was coming back on the line and staying out the distance strongly. Had to cart the field up to the leaders here on Saturday and presented like she may run past them, but seemed to finish on her run. Held ground well there though. She can do the same here again today, just sit behind the speed and keep grinding away, but hard to see her beating home those who finished in front of her in the Wakeful. Rough chance here because think she goes OK, but probably more a place chance. Rough.
8-YOUR COLOUR looked the major Oaks contender with an outstanding run at Caulfield when she weaved through the field from last in a leader dominated race. Drew wide here in the Wakeful, but they could win out wide and she was really disappointing and made very little ground. Drawn wide here again and likely to drop well back and all the best horses are going to be up on the speed and she is going to be giving them a really big start. Can normally forgive one bad run, but not sure there were many excuses on Saturday? Previous run was good enough to place here if she regains her form. Place.
9-JOELY is still in her first preparation and she has been coming along very nicely indeed. Strong win from well back to win her maiden at her first start, weaved through along the rails in the Edward Manifold on a heavy track and then she was disappointing in the MV Vase. She has drawn wide here and is likely to drop well back, again with the more favoured runners rolling on-speed and giving them a massive head start. One plus is that she does look like she wants a wet track and she is likely to get that. Rough place. SCRATCHED
10-EXPENSIVE TASTE is a maiden coming through the Geelong Classic and the form from that race really didn’t hold up in the Derby on Saturday for the first few home. That run wasn’t that bad actually, she poked up on the rails with a run and she was making good ground but couldn’t go with the first three that fought out the finish. She has had a solid staying preparation and she is going to be suited here with the genuine tempo today. Think she is well over the odds at $100 here, she is staying along well and his will be a solid staying contest. Put her in your wider exotics and a rough place chance. Rough place.
11-NOTIFIED showed some promise in her late 2YO races but she really hasn’t gone on this spring. Made good ground first-up, probably didn’t appreciate the heavy track second-up and then not far off them when plugging away last start at Caulfield, but beaten home there by plenty going around here. Hasn’t had a run since then, which isn’t great for this race. Likely to drop back here from an outside barrier and she doesn’t seem to be going well enough. No.
12-REFUSE TO CURTSY is out of the stable who won this race last year with a lightly raced filly in her first preparation. She has been improving as she steps up in class and distance this time in, and was one of a few hitting the line well at Caulfield out wide – and the other two didn’t do much here on Saturday in the Wakeful. Equicast first time is never a good sign. Drawn wide and looks a strong staying type who will appreciate the genuine speed here, but another who is only a rough place chance. Rough place. SCRATCHED
13-NIKITRIA is another who has been coming along OK stepping up in class and distance. Best work was late at Caulfield and then plugged away OK here in the Wakeful when she seemed to pick up again late but she was still well beaten by quite a few going around here and they were much better runs. Drawn wide and likely to drop well back here and give these a head start. No.
14-WAIHEKE ROSE was a good performance to lead all the way to win her maiden and then decided to run on Tuesday so assuming won’t be going around again today? Led there and the track was favouring those on-speed so that was a pretty disappointing run. Lots of other leaders here are going better. No. SCRATCHED
15-THARWA was a really good run two starts back at Caulfield when she was one of a few making good ground out wide. Drew wide here on Saturday and she was the widest in the straight and started to run into the race OK, but didn’t really go on with it. Drawn wide and likely to drop well back again here, so another where rough place is the best. Rough place.
16-SHAMEFUL IMPULSE ran a really nice race here in Wakeful on Saturday and was making good ground hard against the rails and she was coming from well back there. Nice draw here as well so she may be able settle handier today, she dropped back from an extreme wide barrier on Saturday. That Wakeful run was good enough to consider her a rough chance here and goes in as a winning chance. Rough.
17-QUYNH (emerg) is another who was well beaten in the Wakeful, but went fair enough, hard to get overly enthused about previous form though. Good draw means another who is not likely to win but may fluke a place at odds if she gets a run here. Rough place.
18-LITTLE ALLY BAMA (emerg) is unlikely to get into the field as second emergency and coming into this off a Horsham maiden win so hard to see her being a factor in this. No
19-COURTING (emerg) is a maiden who was beaten by the (18) last start but there really wasn’t much between them to the line and they cleared away from the rest of the field. Can race handy, but barrier 20 is going to make that tough, as is getting into the field. No
20-CHOCOLATE FRECKLES (emerg) is a maiden coming into this off a 1000M, 1200M, 1500M preparation so this is a big step up. Hit the line strongly from well back and will win a race soon, but won’t be this one. No SCRATCHED
Summary:
There is a long, long tail to this field and a stack of $100 and over chances, and really there are only four winning chances in the 1-PROXIMA DEA, 2-ICE LADY, 3-QUICK FINISH and the 4-DE ARMAS, but we want to go around the Wakeful winner this year, just because we actually think the best run out of that race was the 2-ICE LADY. She led there, was pestered in the lead, but still gave a good kick and was staying well to the line. She can take a sit here today sitting second and chasing behind the leader the 3-QUICK FINISH who we actually think is the main danger. She was huge in the Derby on Saturday and can’t believe the odds she is backing up off such a good run. The Sydney favourite 1-PROXIMA DEA goes in for third with a tricky ride from a wide barrier. Outside of these, there are a stack of roughies who can run a place, the ones we are most interested in are the 7-CHURCHILL ROSE who will tough it out on-speed and the 10-EXPENSIVE TASTE who looks the wrong odds at $100 and we may have a dabble here before we post. We are keen to bet here, there are two great chances in the 2-ICE LADY and 3-QUICK FINISH and we can back both of them confidently and still finish well ahead.
Race 1: 19-JENNI YOU THINK, 9-RICK’S CAFÉ, 8-CERTAINLY QUIET
Race 2: 9-MISTY WHISPER, 6-ALABAMA FOX, 7-CHAKADO
Race 3: 10-ENCAP, 4-TAVI TIME, 11-CARTOON GRAVEYARD
Race 4: 2-SASS APPEAL, 8-POLYMIA, 12-BELLA VERONA
Race 5: 6-NOBLER, 9-PERISHER, 18-PLACO
Race 6: 1-YAM, 6-BIG ROOSTER, 10-FLYING MIKKI
Race 7: 2-SCINTILLATION, 3-SEQUINNED, 1-CALAMRI RING
Race 8: 2-ICE LADY, 3-QUICK FINISH, 1-PROXIMA DEA
Race 9: 1-REY MAGNERIO, 10-LANDMARK, 11-STOKKE
