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| CAULFIELD: RUPERT CLARKE STAKES - 28th Sept 2014 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Reminder that this meeting is on Sunday 28th September. Bit of rain around towards the end of the week, but it is clearing up and there is brilliant sunshine forecast for Sunday, so this track should be improving rather rapidly on the day. Rail goes back to TRUE here and normally when that happens on a firming track it does tend to favour on pacers. We have had firm tracks the last couple of weeks, and despite the tracks not being rain affected there has been quite distinctive racing patterns so it does pay to watch all the races and keep your thinking hat on and change your bets accordingly. Fairly confident you will want to follow the on pacers today, but we have thought that the last few weeks and got it wrong. There are some very, very big and even fields here and there are going to be plenty of $10 and $20 plus winners so maybe spread your win bets around, go wide in running doubles and make sure you throw in some long shots. When going the form also note there are multiple, multiple acceptors across Friday/Saturday/Sunday so keep an eye out for who ends up where on a big punting weekend. We have thrown in an extra selection in a few races where we might lose a runner if they run at another meeting. RESULTS: Warm sunny day and a strong wind and track ends up a very firm GOOD(2). With the strong wind you needed cover, however, most of the winners stuck close to the rails and raced on speed and in general those racing on speed fought the races out. Some pretty classy wins too. We collected big with the Turf Deli Wonder Bet turning $3 into $137 with a great long shot quinella. BEST WIN: Race 1: 1-RECKLESS ASSASSIN $10 WIN X Normally we try and avoid backing the favourite in the first race, strange things can happen (just look at ZELETTO last week), but really like the way this one is going at the moment. Kept for this from a much harder race on Friday night. Has a good win strike rate and has been racing in career peak form and some of her opposition here is a bit lack lustre. The two Flemington wins were really good sitting on speed and kicking away from them, and then dropped back in distance at MV when the leader dominated the race, but she was grinding away and making good ground on the line. 1st race of the day, rail back to TRUE, and likely leader here in a small field and think she is the one to beat. Quite liking the $4 on offer too. Best win bet of the day and maybe use her to kick off some doubles into horses you like later in the day. RESULTS: Led, and not helped by the strong wind, but disappointing in the straight and the first horse beaten. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 7-COMMANDING TIME $4 EW 2nd W=$5.60, P=$2.00 = $8.00 QUINELLA : Race 4: 7-COMMANDING TIME, 13-KENJORWOOD x $1 2nd 7-COMMANDING TIME W=$5.60, 1st 13-KENJORWOOD W=$3.80. Quinella = $11.50 QUINELLA : Race 4: 7-COMMANDING TIME, 2-SHOREHAM x $1 2nd 7-COMMANDING TIME W=$5.60 Super consistent and under rated type who has a good record here and tends to keep his form once he finds it. Strung together a huge run of wins and placings in the spring last year. Fitter for the 2 runs in, 1st up he made good ground here over the 1400M, then last start probably just a little flat footed in a sit and sprint race when he stayed at the same distance. Looking for extra distance now, has race fitness and better form than many of these and can plonk on speed here and make his own luck in a race with lots of back markers. Looks a solid each way bet at around $7 in a big, even field, and maybe throw a dollar or two on a quinella as the dividends are likely to be good in a big field. RESULTS: These two race away to a huge lead mid race and probably the surest quinella you are ever going to get on the home turn. Thought 7-COMMANDING TIME might wear down the leader, but 13-KENJORWOOD just keeps on going. Quinella actually pays very well, and note we got more back for a $1 spend then than we did for the each way bet. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 8-SISTINE DEMON $5 WIN X QUINELLA: Race 7: 8-SISTINE DEMON, 6-ATLANTE x $2 X QUINELLA: Race 7: 8-SISTINE DEMON#3,5,9 x $3 = 100% X Super tough and super open feature race and you could make a case for most of these. We are keen on the front running 8-SISTINE DEMON, but a lot will depend on how much pressure he gets up front. Unbeaten at the distance and really liked the 1st up run down the straight in a race that often provides the winner of this race. Back straight out at around $9 and sure to be plenty of value in the quinella in a big, even field with the main dangers, the (6), (5), (3) and the best rough chance the (9). RESULTS: 8-SISTINE DEMON leads on a day when the on pacers are winning but stops very, very quickly in the straight. Rest don't really get warm and really off the mark in this race. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 6-LUMOSTY $5 EW SCR $10 Still a maiden but has shown so much potential. Really good running on late here in Blue Diamond Previews as a 2YO, and then just nosed out down the straight at Flemington 1st up, although the track was favouring those running on from outside barriers that day. 2nd up and up 300M into this, but just looks to have a stack of potential and is looking for the extra distance. Key might be here from a good barrier whether she can settle a little closer to the speed with the slower tempo and longer trip? Sure to be well supported, but she looks to have some class on her side and likely go on this spring. Each way at around $6.50 BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 4-MERION $2.50 EW SCR $5 Really big field in the Guineas Prelude and the market may change a bit depending on whether the (11) goes to the Bill Stutt Stakes on Friday night or not. But you can hardly fault the form of this one, 4 starts, 3 wins and has been mixing it with the best of the 3YOs. Beaten by the (2) at MV, but that one got to lead that day and this one chased hard, and then beat a boom horse at Flemington when liked the way he settled on the speed and fought out the finish. Going to start over $10 today, mainly because of the barrier draw, but in a big field the speed should be OK and as long as they are running on OK think he is a chance. Form is pretty top notch, and still getting double figure odds. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 5-PRINCE OF PENZANCE at around $6 8th W=$10.30 Bit tough finding a lay of the day today as we do normally like to find something under $4, but with these fields being so open there aren’t many options. This one is fitter for the 2 runs in and was very well backed to start favourite last start, but was pretty disappointing. Lightly raced and showed really good form last preparation, and this isn’t the strongest field but a bit hard to get keen till he shows something more this time in. RESULTS: Drifts in betting, and never looks even remotely likely. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUINELLA: Race 3: 3,10(scr),12,15,16 boxed x $5 = 50% SCR $2. 1st 15-VAIN ATTRACTION W=$20.60, 2nd 16-CHIQUADA W=$24.50. Quinella = $274.90 x 0.5 = $137.45 This is a bit of a crazy race , capacity field and $6 the field. Likely to be a value runner in the finish, if not a value winner and our trifecta in the selections will pay well into four figures if it comes in. Not dreaming that big, but think it is worth boxing up a few rough chances in a quinella and hoping for a collect here. The 15-VAIN ATTRACTION has excellent Caulfield form and is fitter for the 2 runs in, the 3-HAI LIL is very consistent just drawn a bad barrier, the 10-MANGO MOJITO is a good rough chance if they go forward from a wide barrier, and even the 16-CHIQUADA from a good barrier, who is lightly raced with a good record isn’t hopeless and seems crazy odds at $81 with no weight. Box them up and hope for a sizeable quinella collect. RESULTS: Boom! Well there is a nice result for you. Not only do we find the $20 winner 15-VAIN ATTRACTION as the top pick, we also find the roughie 16-CHIQUADA for a monster quinella collect, turning a measly $3 spend into a mighty $137 collect. For some reason Sportsbet were still offering $81 about 16-CHIQUADA on the morning of the race, even though she was one third the odds elsewhere. Great race for punters to watch, with 16-CHIQUADA running into the race out wide and looking the winner - and suddenly a flash of blue bursts through the pack and it is our other runner on top at long odds. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $173.95 NET: $+123.95 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 1-RECKLESS ASSASSIN, 6-CLEAR DIRECTION, 7-SPINDERBELLA Race 2: 3-SIGNOFF, 9-COUNT ENCOSTA, 16-GRIDHIAN,12-WROTHAM HEATH Race 3: 15-VAIN ATTRACTION, 3-HAI LIL, 10-MANGO MOJITO Race 4: 7-COMMANDING TIME, 13-KENJORWOOD, 2-SHOREHAM Race 5: 6-LUMOSTY, 1-BRING ME THE MAID, 4-SABATINI Race 6: 4-MERION, 8-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT, 11-ZEBULON, 12-LIBERATION Race 7: 8-SISTINE DEMON, 6-ATLANTE, 5-A TIME FOR JULIA Race 8: 10-VAIN QUEEN, 15-TURQUOISE KING, 2-IT IS WRITTEN |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-RECKLESS ASSASSIN 6-CLEAR DIRECTION 3rd W=$7.50 7-SPINDERBELLA 1st W=$3.20 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-COUNT ENCOSTA 16-GRIDHIAN 12-WROTHAM HEATH |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-VAIN ATTRACTION 1st W=$20.60 *** Nice value winner on top *** 3-HAI LIL 10-MANGO MOJITO SCR |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-COMMANDING TIME 2nd W=$5.60 13-KENJORWOOD 1st W=$3.80 2-SHOREHAM Quinella: $11.50 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-LUMOSTY SCR 1-BRING ME THE MAID 4-SABATINI |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-MERION SCR 8-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT 2nd W=$3.00 12-LIBERATION |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SISTINE DEMON 6-ATLANTE 5-A TIME FOR JULIA |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-VAIN QUEEN 15-TURQUOISE KING 3rd W=$4.40 2-IT IS WRITTEN |
| RACE 7: RUPERT CLARKE STAKES GROUP 1 1400M |
| Tips: 8-SISTINE DEMON 6-ATLANTE 5-A TIME FOR JULIA |
| Others: 3, 9,11,12 Pace: EVEN Leaders: 3-SWEET IDEA, 8-SISTINE DEMON Handy : 1-DISSIDENT, 4-ALMA'S FURY (wide), 5-A TIME FOR JULIA, 11-BULL POINT , 13-TRUST IN A GUST Back: 2-SPEEDINESS , 6-ATLANTE, 7-CLUSTER, 9-RHYTHM TO SPARE, 10-AKAVOROUN, 12-LATE CHARGE, 14-GIG Chances: 3-SWEET IDEA is a lightly raced and talented Sydney on pacer with a good win strike rate. 3rd up into this and hard to fault form, winning in a three way finish in Sydney 1st up and then lobbed on speed here in the Memsie but the (1) went straight past her in a flash, but guess at least she did hold off the rest of the field. Dry track here no issues at all and you get the impression she has been set for this rather than many of the rest of this field where it is just a spring campaign pit stop. Does meet the (1) 2kgs better from the Memsie, but really that one went straight past her. Big plus for her is that she is proven at Group 1 level, and most of these are not. She is drawn well, will go forward, track will probably favour on speed, should be fitter for the run and should improve on her one run the Melbourne way of going so think she is a factor in this. Chance. 4th W=$5.10 5-A TIME FOR JULIA is a super consistent on pace 1200M to 1400M mare and she holds her form really well when she finds it. Placed 6 from 7 this track and firm track suits. Lightly raced, super win/place strike rate. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and the form through the 1st up run is strong. She looked the winner the whole way down the straight here last week before just getting bobbed out on the line. Fit, in form mare at her favourite track with no weight so worth paying attention to her. There are a few on pacers here, so she should be able to take a bit more of a sit from her inside barrier and think she is better ridden just a little colder than where they have been riding her - do think she got left exposed far too early in the straight last start. Chance 6-ATLANTE stung us last start as somehow he managed to go a lot more forward than usual AND get off the inside at MV, which never, ever happens when you are on them – only when you don’t want them to get out. Another lightly raced one with a good win strike rate and no weight into this. Form through last start held up here last week. Speed on here should suit, and he is a strong finisher and think that in a field with lots of 1200M to 1400M horses he is more of a 1600M horse and that might be a big plus at the end of what looks like is going to be a very competitive Group 1 1400M. Going to get out to pretty good odds too, and really he wasn’t far away from the (1) during the Autumn and will get 6kgs off him here. Worth noting he carried 1.5 kgs more than the (13) last start and beat him home – and meets him on even weights today, and will start longer odds. Should be finishing hard late. Rough chance. 8-SISTINE DEMON is another lightly weighted smart on pacer, and you have to love a 18 starts for 8 wins career record. That is one wining horse. Unbeaten in 4 starts over the 1400M is an awesome statistic. Kicked off late last spring and went through his classes with ease, keeping form for a solid 6 months and racking up a pretty impressive form record of 2411111211. Try saying that quickly. The step up to Group 1 is the main question mark here, and this is one of the tougher group ones to win. Normally a leader, but there is a fair bit of speed in this race already, so wonder if from a wide barrier they might just sit off the speed? 2nd up and up 200M into this, but really liked the Bobbie Lewis run and the winner of this race often comes from the first five home in that race. Last start at Flemington he led down the inside on a track that was strongly favouring those drawn out wide and running on late and really fought the race out right to the line – don’t underestimate that run – it was excellent. Suspect the track is going to favour on pacers today too. Pretty keen to tip him today actually, despite the class rise, only niggling doubt is that there are a few on pacers in this race, and think considering this is a pretty tough Group 1 he should be better odds. Strong chance. Place: 1-DISSIDENT has been pretty much the stand out horse this spring and we have been on him both times. Showed a lot of potential as a 2YO + 3YO, but either didn’t have the best luck, or it just hadn’t all clicked yet. Gone up a notch this spring as a 4YO and really is on the up so has lots of possibilities and there isn’t much depth around in the WFA ranks at the moment so he does stand out as the in form horse. Taken away from the WFA course, back to the handicaps and you would think that means they are going to keep him to the shorter distances this spring? 3rd up and fitter for the 2 runs in, and so much to like about them too. 1st up here he sat handy and put the race beyond doubt very quickly – and that takes a dash of class. In the Makybe Diva he was left a sitting duck at the top of the straight and everything had a chance to run him down, but he just kept fighting on. Both wins were huge. Firm track and Caulfield are to his liking and think he goes best at Caulfield regardless. Drawn a nice barrier and can go forward and sit just off the speed here again. So the only issue here really is the weight – and often this race is won by those down in the weights. Over half the field is on 52 kgs here, most of them have a fair bit of ability and he needs to give 6kgs to all of them. Almost certain to be in the finish, but just get the impression something with no weight will get the better of him in this. Place 2nd W=$6.90 7-CLUSTER is another lightly raced Sydney visitor with a good win strike rate and huge potential. Has been racing in peak form in Sydney, came from last to go around them and win last start. He was competitive as a 3YO in some of the main spring races, but did have a bit of a reputation for not really putting it all together and wanting to win. Form this preparation has been a lot better and he does seem to be on a rapid improve. Strong finisher, drawn out and will probably drop back to last here and think you need some luck to come from last in these features, even with the speed on like it is today. Always a bit cautious with Sydney horses going around Caulfield as well. Still, the speed on here should suit so can’t write off his chances, would want them to be winning running on OK though, and just wonder if in a race with so many race fit, in form, on pacers whether one will pinch a break on him and he will come home too late. Rough chance only. 9-RHYTHM TO SPARE has a fair bit of ability when right and often gets well backed. Best form is normally fresh and he likes to run on late off fast speeds when he should get here. 2nd up, but staying at the 1400M, and was only beaten 2L by the (12) last start and meets him 2.5kgs better off in this. He is quite smart and doesn’t often get to go down in the weights. Drawn a nice middle barrier, will drop back, but the speed will be on, and worth noting he was beaten < 2L in the Emirates Stakes last year. Needs them to be running on, but think he is a rough chance in this and looks over the odds to us at around $31. Definite value runner to put in for trifectas and first fours. Rough. 11-BULL POINT is another Sydney visitor who was beaten by the (7) last start who came from behind him and went past him, but he fought out the finish pretty well. Can mix it up between dropping back and racing on speed, today from a middle to outside barrier you would think they would sit just off the speed. Much of this field are largely identical, all lightly raced, good strike rates jumping up to Group 1 class, really hard to line them up and really there isn’t much between them at all. Winner here too. Likely to get out to good odds but another with some chance. Rough. 3rd W=$10.70 12-LATE CHARGE is one we followed as a 3YO as he showed a huge amount of potential with his flashy finishes, but he never quite put it all together. Of course, we haven’t backed him at all this time in - and he was won both of them. He just seems to have worked out what it is all about. Really surprising to see him jump and lead on speed here 2 starts back, normally he is a drop back horse. Dropped back at Flemington and really fought home so well down the middle of the track, when giving a kick away leader a big start. Best going did seem to be down the middle of the track that day at Flem though. Inside barrier might be an issue for him here, he is likely to drop back again and may be searching for runs and running on when it is too late. He is going really well so rough chance running on late for a place and stable did win this race a few years back in the same colours with BON HOFFA. Prefer place running on late though. 13-TRUST IN A GUST is a super little horse who just keeps on winning and sneakily cashing in on all the bonuses around town meaning he has racked up a pretty decent little prize money bank. If there were frequent flyer rewards for racing he would be jetting it first class around the world. Only missed the place now twice in 15 starts! Should be right at peak with the 3 runs in and he just keeps his form. He is pretty bomb proof, he can sit handy and put himself into the race. Hasn’t been tried at Group level at all, and straight into a Group 1. Drawn to get a perfect on pace sit here. Does have a bit of a following amongst punters as he is a rather trustworthy investment, but this is another step up in class and he is meeting an awful lot of talented horses today. Last start here last week he really didn’t have much in the way of opposition, and never looked like getting beaten. Has ability, just to be honest think the is going to start under the odds here as punters do like him, and he is facing a serious challenge. Prefer place on value and prefer to back others to win at these odds. 1st W=$6.30 Sacking: 2-SPEEDINESS has been pretty consistent for a couple of years now in these sort of races, but just doesn’t win as often as he should because he always drops well back in his races, so is always running on too late or held up for runs. Probably just prefers a little bit of give in the track so watch how much this track dries out. Solid run 1st up in the Bobbie Lewis down the straight, when he was finishing hard late, but the straight track was favouring those drawn out and running home out wide late. Last year he was a quite unlucky 4th in this race, taking a while to get a clear run and storming home – but too late again. He was coming off a win in the Bobbie Lewis last year. He is always around the finish, and if they are running on OK then maybe elevate his chances, but we suspect the track may favour on pacers, and regardless he needs them to run along, he needs runners on to be winning and he just needs everything to go right. Prefer place again at best but happy to leave out today as think he is a bit costly for punters. No. 4-ALMA'S FURY is a well performed interstater, who has been around for a while though and normally this race is for the young up and comers. Has been competitive in various Group 2 and Groups 3 races, but the hot Group 1 field here is probably a bit out of his league. Run in the Bobbie Lewis was better than it looked, raced forward and on speed that day closer to the inside and there was a distinctive racing pattern suiting those drawn out and running on late. Drops 4kgs from that run. Drawn out and likely to get caught wide on speed here and probably just not in this class, but might find a suitable race over the spring. Passing. 10-AKAVOROUN is another lightly raced, well performed one, but they are extremely common in this field. Worked home solidly in the Bobbie Lewis 1st up, but probably not quite as well as expected. Unbeaten over the 1400M, but drops well back, needs the speed on (which will probably happen here), but from an inside barrier might need some luck getting through the field here. This race often has hard luck stories of horses getting chopped out for runs and reckon he might be a contender today. Another rising through the ranks to Group 1 level and there really isn’t much between them, but up against a few who beat him home last start and maybe just prefer to wait till he gets over a little further. Another who is going to be very good odds today for one with pretty good form so go for it if you are keen. Passing today for us. 14-GIG has been going around in everything and continues to flash home late in races way above her pay scale in the purple and pink colours. Placed 6 from 8 here at Caulfield, but still only won 1 from 16 on dry ground and suspect she just wants a little bit of give in the ground. Runs here in the Bletchingly and Lawrence were really good, she was the best finisher both times when not suited in WFA fields. Really wasn’t beaten that far last start at Flemington either in a race that is likely to be a pretty strong form race. Pace on here should suit, and she should be running on late again, just hard to see her winning against this lot and surely her form is going to taper off sometime soon? Passing. Summary: This is always a super tough race, with big fields and a big weight spread and lots of well performed horses looking for Group 1 glory. It is really hard to split a lot of these runners, most of them are lightly raced, with good win strike rates, in form, on the up, you could really make a case for just about the whole field here. 7 last start winners or place getters and this is going to be a very keen betting race with lots of betting moves. $7 the field just goes to show this is an extremely open race. A few things to note, to try and sort through this field. Even with the weights increasing only 3 horses have carried over 56kgs in the last 20 years to win this race. The Bobbie Lewis is often the best form guide for this race, especially placegetters coming through that race, but none of them have fronted up here. Despite many of these having a stack of ability, very few are proven at Group One level, so keep an eye out for those proven at the top level. Speed here is going to be solid, both 3-SWEET IDEA, 8-SISTINE DEMON can lead and there are few who will position up handy and put the pressure on, the 4-ALMA'S FURY (wide), 5-A TIME FOR JULIA, 13-TRUST IN A GUST Going to go for the 8-SISTINE DEMON here, really like the first up run down the straight and think you need to pay attention to it once you factor in that it was the outside barriers winning that day. A lot is going to depend on how much pressure there is up front, you would think the track will be suiting on pacers, if there was just a little less pressure up front would be very keen about his chances indeed. Think he is under the odds too at around $9, but likely to be a lot better on the tote on the day. Main danger may be the 6-ATLANTE who looks value having beaten the (13) 1st up, meeting it better on weights, but likely to start double the odds. Speed on here should suit and he is going to be strong at the end of the 1400M, whereas a few of these it is as far as they want. Has a better Group 1 record then many of these as well. Other dangers to 3-SWEET IDEA, again a lot will depend on the amount of pressure up front, but solid proven Group 1 performer, and the 5-A TIME FOR JULIA ridden a little more cold with the perfect sit today. Sure to be a very hotly contested race – and a hotly contested betting race so will probably play with win bets on these depending on how the odds come up on the day. One to risk: 2-SPEEDINESS 13th W=$12.90 Roughie: 9-RHYTHM TO SPARE The Key: Who is proven at Group 1 level? RESULTS: Really tough little race with a heap of lightly raced, in form horses and very little between them. We never get even remotely warm with the form, but the two on pacers kick clear to fight the race out in a great finish. 13-TRUST IN A GUST is just so gutsy and keeps on putting himself into the race and huge effort from the 1-DISSIDENT to only just get beaten despite giving most of the field 6kgs - he is absolutely flying at the moment and keep following him. |
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