|CAULFIELD : RUPERT CLARKE STAKES - 24th Sept 2016|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Fine weather heading into the weekend and this track should come up fairly firm. Caulfield tends to race very evenly these days and normally they can run on and win, but just be wary if the racing pattern favours those racing on speed today with the rail back to TRUE on a firm track. Suspect you will want to tend towards the on pacers and those who get back may struggle to get into the finish.
This is normally a pretty good betting program, but there are a few dead set ugly races (we are talking to you Races 2 and 4). The Guineas Preludes are always exciting races with the 3YO’s rising to see who are going to be the major spring players and the Rupert Clarke and Underwood are always great races for a confident bet.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 11-BON AURUM $5 EW
Real honest type who may get even better this preparation. Fitter for the 2 runs in and both runs have been great and really liked the way he put them away last start at Flemington. Perfectly set for this race, at the bottom of the weights, should get a great cart into the race off a solid speed and looks to be one on the way up. Dry track, 1400M and Caulfield all big ticks. Back each way at around $7.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 3-SAMARA DANCER $4 EW
Pretty smart filly who was impressive winning here back in the Autumn. Think the 1st up run was pretty good down the straight and she is going to be suited back around the bend and out to the 1400M. Explosive finish if right, main query might be if they can run on OK and if they go fast enough in this but think she is a class horse and worth an each way bet at around $6.50.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 4-BIG MEMORY $4 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 3: 4-BIG MEMORY #1,3,11 x $3 = 100%
The 1-ROYAL RAPTURE vs 8-PILOTE D’ESSAI head to head test of punters sanity continues today. We are slightly concerned about 1-ROYAL RAPTURE back on a dry track, so we prefer the 4-BIG MEMORY who is very over due for a win, but is normally in the finish and should be improved off the 1st up run. Drawn out, will sit forward on a genuine speed and stays better than most of these. Back straight out at around $7.50 and the quinella should pay OK in a even betting market with the very consistent 1-ROYAL RAPTURE, the 3-LONGERON and watch out for the improving 11-NOZOMI at odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 4-THE CLEANER $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 6-AWESOME ROCK, 4-THE CLEANER x $2
We have been waiting to see if the front running legend of old comes back, but think he strikes a race that suits him perfectly today. Two runs in have been OK, set a crazy tempo up front with crazy LORD OF THE SKY here 1st up and then he was really good at MV in the Dato Tan when led and kicked on the turn and they were struggling to get to him, but he just died on the run. Fitter for the 2 runs in and meets a small field here where he can dictate the speed, a lot of drop back stayers and a few who are suspect past 1600M. Think he is ready to fire and really keen to back him today, especially if the track favours those on speed, and loving the $18 on offer. Quite keen. Throw something on the quinella with the under rated 6-AWESOME ROCK for a dividend boost.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 8-FOREIGN AFFAIR $3 EW
Been racing very consistently and has a great win/place strike rate. Drawn to jump and run and go forward and think the on pacers might be favoured today. Scratched from a weaker race at MV on Friday night for this is a positive sign. Most of this field are either drop back horses or 1st up so she might get a soft run on the speed and stick on pretty well at around $15.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 14-VIOLATE $2 EW
Total dabble at silly odds, but not overly impressed with the field here for the Guineas Prelude and often something comes out of a weaker race and improves rapidly in this race (although they are normally quite well backed runners). This one has yet to miss a place in 3 starts, fought on well last start and comes through a strong form race at Sandown. Drawn a nice barrier and can race handy in a race with not much pressure so might just poke into the finish at monster odds of around $51.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 3-PAY UP BRO at around $2.70
Totally awful race so hard to get enthused about a short priced favourite. This one showed a lot of staying promise as a 3YO but kept racking up black book run after black book run without actually winning. Has suddenly struck form, and last two wins have been super impressive, but can’t get on something at short odds with so many prior convictions. Dry track form is pretty ordinary and prefer not to bet in this race regardless, so happy to risk him.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 6,11 / 6,11,12,13,16 / 6,7,9,11,12,13,16 x $5 = 12.5%
The main chances in the feature race at the 6-COUNTERATTACK and the 11-BON AURUM. But there are a heap of good value, fit and in form runners at the bottom of the weights to watch out for – the 12-THAMES COURT racing on speed, the 13-TELOPEA who had no chance from an outside barrier last start, and the 16-MR INDIVIDUAL who was super tough working from an outside barrier last start with a big weight. All of these are at nice odds, so the trifecta should pay pretty well if one or more of them get into the finish. Anchor the favoured runners to win and go wide in the placings for $5.
Race 1: 8-FOREIGN AFFAIR, 2-TAKE PRIDE, 4-SUPER CASH
Race 2: 7-O’LONERA, 8-THE BANDIT, 5-BLACK TOMAHAWK
Race 3: 4-BIG MEMORY, 3-LONGERON, 1-ROYAL RAPTURE
Race 4: 8-KEVIN’S TIME, 4-PORTION CONTROL, 6-KIFAAH
Race 5: 3-SAMARA DANCER, 1-WHISPERING BROOK, 5-I AM A STAR
Race 6: 6-ARCHIVES, 2-SARACINO, 14-VIOLATE
Race 7: 11-BON AURUM, 16-MR INDIVIDUAL, 6-COUNTERATTACK
Race 8: 6-AWESOME ROCK, 4-THE CLEANER, 2-BLACK HEART BART
Race 9: 7-INZ’N’OUT, 1-SHEIDEL, 9-ATMOSPHERICAL