|CAULFIELD: RUPERT CLARKE STAKES Ė 19th September 2020|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: WINDY - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Few showers heading into the weekend and proper rain forecast for Saturday, but that is not supposed to come through until the evening so the track should remain relatively firm. We raced on a rail TRUE track here for the Memsie and the racing pattern was even and they could run on and win so every horse should get its chance again here today. There is a bit of wind forecast, so it may be better to have cover and swoop down the outside.
We have a nice challenging betting race for the Rupert Clarke Stakes, which is part of the fun of the punt Ė to sit down and one by one sort out fields like this. In a capacity field we should get a very genuine speed, and we have the 3-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER who will jump and run and probably tear away to a clear lead here, the 2-STREETS OF AVALON trying to cross from an outside barrier, the 10-ACHERNAR STAR pushing up from an inside barrier pressing forward early, and the 6-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR, 11-AGE OF CHIVALRY, 15-TAGALOA sitting handy, so the speed should be quite genuine indeed and backmarkers should have their chance today. Weights are crucial in this race and it is quite hard for those carrying weight to win, with only 2 horses in the last 20 years winning with more than 58kgs and only three horses with over 56 kgs (noting that the weights are raised though this year).
Going through the field trying to line them up, the 1-BEHEMOTH is finally living up to his potential and was never going to get beaten when he lobbed forward behind the leaders last start. He did have a history of being a bit slow out and we dropped off him last start for that reason, but several of his main rivals were scratched and basically we knew we were stuffed as soon as they had gone 200M and he was in the box seat. If he box seats again here he probably wins again, but last start was WFA and he is giving 6kgs to some pretty decent horses today in this race which is going to be a challenge. It can be hard for horses carrying weight to win these races giving weight to so many horses down the field. The 2-STREETS OF AVALON is a tough, dry track Caulfield specialist, who ran well first up and looked to be in for a great early spring, slightly disappointing on a unsuitable wet track 2nd up, and was definitely disappointing 3rd up in the Memsie. Really surprised us with his effort last start Ė and we are one of his biggest fans Ė always thought 1600M was a query with him but he fought out the race well in the Feehan in a slogging finishing when they were running over the top of them. Outside draw is the issue here and they will need to come across the whole field and probably settle behind the (3), they tried to cross him as the leader in the Memsie and he quickly punctured heading to the turn. Tough, on speed, dry track at Caulfield he is probably one not to under estimate and a place chance. The 3-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER won this race last year when he was in flying form, and he actually didnít lead, but sat second behind one that over raced and went too fast in front. Fitter for the 2 runs back which have both been good and he did show some kick on the home turn last start. Has been aimed for this race this year, gets a good barrier and a good track and expect them to really put on the burners today and shoot along in the lead. Worth noting he carried 52kgs last year (which was the limit weight), and is up 6kgs this year (4kgs on the limit) and he probably isnít going as well, but he is some rough chance especially if the track tends towards those on-speed. The 4-CASCADIAN is one we have some time for, and has a mighty finishing sprint. He has rattled home for 4th in his two Melbourne runs this time in and will probably win a good race this spring. Just wish they could settle him a bit closer in the run, if he did he would probably win this, but itís so hard to win dropping out to last every time. Will get the speed on to suit so they might set the race up for him and he is some chance, but suspect he probably runs home too late again and maybe he wants 1600M and Flemington? The 5-SUPERSTORM looked a potential star in the Autumn as a 3YO, and the first up run was actually pretty good as the 1100M was far too short for him. Always hard to remember which of these pink WA horses are which, but the stable has been competitive in just about everything they have contested so far this spring. 2nd up and up 300M and the outside barrier is the real issue here as will probably end up right at the back of the field and have to circle around them to get into the race. He might have the untapped ability to win this though, so watch the market, but doesnít seem that well weighted at 57kgs. The 6-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR seems to be building nicely after a long injury layoff, he actually ran 2nd in this race in 2018 when leading, and he stuck on pretty well last start down the straight. Horses coming through the Bobbie Lewis actually have a pretty good record in this race and he is proven at this level. 1400M stats are pretty solid, nice barrier to sit just off the speed, he is nice value runner for your exotics and some chance here and will probably slip through the notice of most punters and drift come race time.
The 7-MADAME ROUGE was a really good run here 1st up over 1200M when flashed home well late from an outside barrier in a race where the first five in the run filled the placings and she beat the (13) home there who was impressive winning last week at Flemington. 2nd up and up 200M, drop back horse who has drawn the outside barrier and she will be at the end of the field here and giving them a big start off a fast speed so prefer to let her run today. The 8-MADELA EFFECT has ability on his day and has good dry track and distance stats, 1st up run was even, but probably gets jammed back on the rails here in a big field from an inside barrier. The 9-REYKJAVIK has an amazing finishing burst when right, and is fitter for the two runs back from a let up. Funny we always had him marked as a Flemington wet tracker, but his dry track form is actually not too bad. His last start here he was hitting the line pretty well when crowded for room, the speed on today will suit and he doesnít need to settle that far back in the run, and has drawn wide to get a clear run into the race. He has had to carry 60kgs 4 times in his last 7 starts so doesnít look too badly placed here today and might surprise at odds. The 10-ACHERNAR STAR will go forward from the inside barrier but most likely will get crossed by the (3) and didnít show much 1st up. The 11-AGE OF CHIVALRY has been threating to win a race like this for a while, and has excellent track and distance stats. Excellent run 1st up, and then was slightly disappointing last start at MV when really he struggled to hold onto third. Happy to forgive a poor run 2nd up though, will be fitter for that run, ran 2nd in this race last year and 3rd in the Toorak Hcp. Can jump and go forward here and sit behind the fast speed so can present at the right time too. Still slightly concerned about that last run, as he was really struggling on the turn, so not convinced he is going as well as last year, but have to respect in a suitable race. The 12-DEBT AGENT is 1st up over 1400M and badly out of form.
The 13-PRETTY BRAZEN was very impressive winning last week at Flemington, and looking at the form guide in hindsight cannot believe us punters let her go around at $20 Ė she had placed her two previous attempts that track and distance and class and was proven at that level. She has a stack of talent on her day and should have even more improvement to come off the two runs this time in. She has a great turn of foot and like the way she swooshed past them last week. Drawn out suits her as she likes to run on strongly out wide and the speed on here is going to suit, and looks nicely weighted into this. The 14-ROHERYN is a sovereign citizen who has snuck through the border crossing without giving his name and address, drop back strong finisher who may be better on wet ground. Just think itís hard for back markers to switch direction and he is meeting a pretty talented field here. The 15-TAGALOA is a tough, gritty type who might be suited with the speed on here, 3YOs tacking the older horses normally get around 52 kgs in this, but weights are raised this year. Solid run 1st up, hit the lead early in the straight and they really only just got him the last 10 M. Just wonder if 2nd up and up to 1400M first time at this level might be a tough challenge in a pressure race, but actually think he is a pressure horse and suspect he will be the one best supported in betting. The 16-BANQUO was solid in the Bobbie Lewis and often that is a good form reference for this race, fitter for the 2 runs back in, and he is going to get a very good run in the race here behind the leaders from a good barrier. Not certain how good he is, and not quite sure he is up to these at Group 1 level, but he is very well placed in this and has to rate a strong chance with the weight and barrier and set to peak today. Of the emergencies the 17-HARLECH is a NZer 1st up and would prefer to see, the 18-I AM SUPERMAN was very impressive winning here last start and was well supported, drawn wide and likely to be trapped wide most of the way if he gets into the field but not hopeless. The 19-GOLD FIELDS is unlikely to get a run as third emergency and is out of form, as is the 20-RUNSON who would turn this into an extremely fast race as another leader if he got into the field.
So an awful lot to sort through here, but there is one that really stands out for us Ė and that is the 13-PRETTY BRAZEN. Dynamite turn of foot when right, coming off an impressive last start win and often you need to be in peak form to win these tough, competitive feature Group 1 races. She likes the speed on, is nicely weighted and is drawn to run over the top of them and got the impression last start she is about to put it all together and go on with it. Think the $18 odds are all wrong and she should be around $8 to $10. The 1-BEHEMOTH the main danger, giving 6kgs to lots of pretty talented horses is the main issue, but he is another who looks like he is going to go on with it this spring and live up to his potential. The 16-BANQUO looks very well placed in this, fitter for the 2 runs in, the placegetters from the Bobbie Lewis often win this race, well drawn to sit with cover behind the speed, the only query is if he is ready to go up to this level. Best roughie is the 6-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR who looks ready to do something today and will also sit just on the speed, he has been proven and competitive at this level a few times now and looks ready to get back to his best form. Respect for the 11-AGE OF CHIVALRY and 15-TAGALOA as the other main dangers. Even though it is a very open race we are pretty keen to have an each way bet on the top pick at $18, and box up a wide quinella with the other horses for a value result.
Our winning strike rate hasnít been the best this spring, but when we do find a winner they are at nice odds so we are actually in front this Spring Campaign in the suggested bets. This looks a pretty straight forward program except for the feature race and most races should be won by those well in the market, though suspect the first two races are more open than the betting market suggests. So you can probably have confident win bets on your top two runners in most races. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 10-PARMIE $5 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 5: 10-PARMIE#7,8,9,13 x $2 = 50%
This is actually a fairly open race, but we have been a fan of this one for some time. Career stats should look a lot better as she has not had the best of luck a few times caught behind runners, and last start at MV looped them and was unlucky not to get the bob on the line to beat a smart one. Fitter for the 2 runs in, suited on firm ground, better off out to the 1400M and drawn a nice middle barrier to sit back and finish over the top of them. Happy to back straight out at around $7 and save on a quinella with the main dangers the frustrating 7-LA TIGERESSA who didnít look happy around MV last start over 1200M and also has a nice finishing burst when in form, the 8-SO YOU SWING who showed a lot of grit to stick her head out here last start to win coming from last, the 9-THE CLOSER who will sit on speed and has had no luck when blocked for inside runs both starts this time in and the leader the 13-THOUSAND WISHES who might not get much pressure up front here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 12-DABIYR $3 EW
Fairly open Naturalism Stakes and this race always is a pretty open betting race. There are a lot of horses early on in their preparations though and a lot of back markers, even though there is some speed up front, prefer to be on something on speed as suspect a lot of these will drop too far back and give them too big a start. This one will settle handy, is fitter for the two runs in, just seemed to wobble and lose it around the turn last start at MV and looks to get the run of the race here. Each way at around $12 in a tough field with plenty of chances.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 13-PRETTY BRAZEN $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 1,6,11,13,16 x $5 = 50%
We are pretty keen on this one at $18 in the main race and suspect she will get backed and she is more an $8 to $10 chance so maybe get on now. Class mare with a devastating turn of foot, and that is what you want in these feature Group 1s. Fit, in winning form and nicely weighted in this field. Love the way she went pass them last start, and she is drawn to do the same again here today and will appreciate the genuine speed in this. Back each way and aim for a value collect with a box quinella around the talented 1-BEHEMOTH who is probably in the finish but just finds one better with the 60kgs, the nice on speed roughie the 6-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR, the consistent on-pacer the 11-AGE OF CHIVALRY, and the well placed improver the 16-BANQUO.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 2-HUMMA HUMMA $5 EW
Consistent, talented sprinter, who just needs the speed on, firm ground and to make a run out wide at them and the outside barrier draw suits today. Suited under this weight scale as she is the class horse and proven in better races and she loomed up like the winner here last start but just seemed to finish on the run. Think there will be a lot of improvement from that run, and she can turn the tables on the short priced 6-LYRE in this from last start. Looks a safe each way bet at around $6 to end the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 5-THE PRES $2 EW
We think the first two races are not that straight forward and there is probably a good chance of some upset results. This one ran on really well at Flemington two starts back, and looks to be a 3YO stayer on the improve. Given no chance last start when dropped out to a long last and finished home OK and better suited here with a smaller field, dry track and out to the 1600M as long as they go along fast enough to allow him to run on. Something each way at around $11 to kick off the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 4-EASY BEAST $1 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 3,4,12 boxed x $3 = 100%
Again this looks a pretty even field and good chance of an upset result and there does seem to be an awful lot of speed in the race, with several possible leaders. Admittedly this one goes forward too, but they can probably sit just outside the speed and his Caulfield and 1200M stats are actually OK so the $31 on offer seems a little generous. Back each way and box up a nice value quinella in the selections with the top pick the 12-MONTENGRO MAN who will be suited as strong finisher with the speed on and back on firm ground and the consistent 3-RIDDLE ME THAT who should improve off the first up run.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3:10-MUNTASEERA at around $5
We struggled to find a Lay of the Day today as most of those in the market look pretty hard to beat. This one has talent, but is also totally erratic so hard to back with any confidence. Some great runs here in the Autumn, but tends to drop too far back in the run and although she might go well fresh think they will just run her off her feet here over 1000M and she will be better over further. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough for twenty six million vaccine doses.
QUAD: Races 6,7,8,9: 2,6 / 3,12,14 / 1,6,11,13,16 / 2,6 x $5 = 8.33%
This looks a very gettable quaddie, question is going to be if it pays anything worthwhile though, especially for only 8%. We can confidently narrow down the first leg to the two main chances the 6-AGREEABLE, 2-ALDENSFIELD and really one of them should win. The MRC Foundation Cup is always a pretty open race so you can go wider there with a few others, but we are just putting in the three selections the 12-DABIYR, 14-GAME KEEPER, 3-DR DRILL. Wide open feature Rupert Clarke is where we are hoping for a value result, particularly from the McEvoy stablemates the 13-PRETTY BRAZEN or 6-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR. Pretty confident there are only two chances in the last leg as well, the 2-HUMMA HUMMA, 6-LYRE so it is just a matter of finding a value winner in the middle two legs or splurging and spending more than $5.
Race 1: 5-THE PRES, 6-SUROOJ, 3-CELESTAL SOL
Race 2: 12-MONTENGRO MAN, 4-EASY BEAST, 3-RIDDLE ME THAT
Race 3: 9-FOREVER FREE, 6-CRYSTAL CHIEF, 3-PIONEER RIVER
Race 4: 8-EXCESS FUNDS, 7-FRONT PAGE, 6-OCTANE
Race 5: 10-PARMIE, 13-THOUSAND WISHES, 8-SO YOU SWING
Race 6: 6-AGREEABLE, 2-ALDENSFIELD, 9-A PINCH OF LUCK
Race 7: 12-DABIYR, 14-GAME KEEPER, 3-DR DRILL
Race 8: 13-PRETTY BRAZEN, 1-BEHEMOTH, 16-BANQUO
Race 9: 2-HUMMA HUMMA, 6-LYRE, 1-SPANISH WHISPER