We are reliably informed that Spring Carnival has been extended by one week for the Thousand Guineas and Rupert Clarke Stakes, so seeing Cup Week wasn’t the best we will go around for one more week before switching to summer mode. This is a pretty good program, just be wary that some of these horses may have already peaked this spring and are going around for consolation prizes for one last campaign run. They really stripped all the decent races from the Wednesday meeting including the Village Stakes and the Blue Sapphire, and also moved the Thoroughbred Club stakes from Caulfield Cup Day- its no wonder those programs were so light on. On a firming track on a sunny day with the rail back to TRUE the racing pattern may tend towards those on-speed.
Looks a good enough punting day, there does seem to be one or two clear cut favourites in each race which do look hard to beat and this may be a favourites day. Of course, all of jockey Oliver’s rides are going to start well unders on the totes and probably with the bookies as well.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 2-SALTAIRE
QUINELLA: Race 4: 2-SALTAIRE#5-LOVAZOU, 1-DE SONIC BOOM x $4 = 200%
QUINELLA: Race 4: 2-SALTAIRE#9-HERECOMESTHESTAR, 10-DIAMOND DECORATOR x $2 = 100%
This one has been racing extremely well and last two starts have been very promising. Ran on hard out wide against the leaders’ pattern at MV to just miss in a photo, and then hit the lead maybe a tad too early down the straight and kicked clear down the middle of the track at Flemington to get beaten by the widest runner. Both times showed a good turn of foot and looks the one to beat here sitting off the speed. Has been racing in better races than many of these so suited under this compressed weight scale. Probably too short to back straight out at around $3 so let’s try for a value quinella instead here with the 5–LOVAZOU who ran on well last start at Geelong and the 1-DE SONIC BOOM off a freshen but has form in better races than these as the main bet. Go again with two improving runners with the 9-HERECOMESTHESTAR, 10-DIAMOND DECORATOR.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 7-SO RISQUE $4 EW
Honest enough type who we are hoping will go forward here in and sit just behind the leaders. Is 2nd up and up in distance, but last start carried top weight and ran up behind them on the rails with something to give, and had nowhere to go. There isn’t much depth to this race and looks to get a pretty good run from a good barrier and the $10 odds each way look value.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 5-BIG BREW $4 EW
This is a pretty awful race so mainly landed on this one just because he is racing so consistently. Does drop back and barrier 1 isn’t ideal, but there does look to be a fair bit of speed here so hoping the jockey can sort something out. Ran on really well here three starts back, and he runs a strong mile and think that is a query for a few of his opposition here. Each way at around $15.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 7-ARYTON $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 4,7,10,11,16 x $5 = 50%
Not one we normally back as he does tend to start short in his races, but he is unbeaten in 5 starts at Caulfield which is pretty impressive and unbeaten 4 starts this track and distance. Punters seem to have gone off him after an ordinary last preparation, and last start was the first time in his 18 career starts that he has started double figure odds. Fitter for the two runs this time in, won first-up here as top weight and then the Flemington run on Derby Day was really good, there was a distinct leaders and rails bias, he was widest in the straight and ran on strongly against the pattern. Well drawn here and should get run of the race off what looks a pretty furious tempo. Confident each way bet at around $12 in a big field and box up a value quinella with the 4-BANDERSNATCH who is value with a perfect on-speed sit, the 10-CHAIN OF LIGHTNING who don’t think has been suited the way her races have been run this time in, the talented 11-MAGIC TIME who might get caught wide here from an outside barrier off a fast speed, and the consistent 16-WROTE TO ARATAKI at odds hopefully taking a sit off the fast speed.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 12-VIBRANT SUN $2.50 EW
Have to throw in one of Damian Oliver’s rides and he is not without a chance on this roughie in the Thousand Guineas, a race he has an excellent record in. She looks to be one on the improve, beaten two starts back by the filly that won impressively at Flemington against these and then led and ran away from them to win her maiden. Can go forward here and either lead and make her own luck and probably runs a race at $25.
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 6-FORTUNATE KISS $2.50 EW
Most unfortunate filly who has struck trouble again and again since her 3YO Thousand Guineas run here and finally won another race last start. So maybe she can make it two in a row? She is strong finisher, and proven over further, so will be suited if the speedy fillies knock each other out here, which is not impossible. Little rough bet at around $20 as a different form line to these.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 12-MIRAVAL ROSE at around $4
Improving filly who is well in the market here, but up off a maiden win and up against some that have been running in harder races looks poor value. There are a lot of up and coming fillies in this race, coming off maiden or lower grades win that are much longer odds so this just looks poor value.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to pay for a brand new Grand Pavilion.
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 2,6 / 2,6,8,12,13 / 1,2,3,6,8,12,13 x $5 = 12.50%
The two top picks in the Thousand Guineas are the 6-JOLIESTAR, 2-COEUR VOLANTE, but there are a stack of improving fillies that could run into a place like the 12-VIBRANT SUN, 8-VIVY AIR and 13-QUICKSTER so lets try for wide trifecta with one of them racing a race today.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 2,6,12 / 4,7,10,11,16 / 4,5,10,11,14 /1,2,6 x $20 = 8.88%
We need to be a little brave today with two wide open races as the middle legs you want to go as wide as possible in. Take the selections in the first leg and the last leg with include a roughie and hope for a result.
Feature Race Preview:
We will do the feature race preview for the Rupert Clarke Stakes as the more interesting race on the day with exposed form. There looks to be tremendous speed here, obviously the 9-BUFFALO RIVER will try and zoom across from an outside barrier, the 2-I AM ME and 15-CROSSHAVEN will go forward and they probably take a sit today on the 16-WROTE TO ARATAKI. The 4-BANDERSNATCH and the 7-ARYTON probably settle just in behind these and think these are the ones to focus on, pulling out at the right time in a fast run race.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-VILANA has been thereabouts in both runs this time in and should be fitter for the two runs in and ready to do something here. Does tend to drop back a little in his races and don’t think barrier 1 suits today with a lot of leaders up front knocking each other out and falling back onto him. Note jockey Oliver on board who may be able to pull out a run, but prefer to risk giving weight to all of these.
2-I AM ME does have a class factor against these and came home well once he got clear in the Manikato. Out to 1400M for the first time today is the query, if this was going to be a sit and sprint race where he could sit on-speed and kick clear that wouldn’t be an issue, but it looks like this is going to be a really fast run 1400M and that has to be a query with this one. Class means is a chance if can get the right run into the race.
3-STRAIT ACER looks to be one on the way up and fitter for the two runs in, up in Sydney which have both been good in novelty Eagle races. Strong finisher and well-drawn who is going to be suited with the fast speed here and might split through gaps at the right time. Respect.
4-BANDERSNATCH has been really consistent around these sort of races for some time now and he hit the lead at Flemington last start and hung on pretty well against a wall of horses. That was first sign of form this time in, but normally holds form once he finds it. Like the run he gets here, on-speed, good barrier, sitting just behind the speed and think he is likely to be in the finish at odds here. Good chance.
5-SKEW WIFF is a NZer with some ability, but didn’t measure up here two starts back when favourite, although had missed a run as a late scratching before that. Good win at Flemington, but not sure how strong that field was and she did get the perfect run of the race. Likely to sit on-speed and get a good run here again, so some rough chance.
6-THE INFERNO is better known over sprint trips and seems to save his best for MV looping off a fast speed. Hasn’t won for close to three years, but is well drawn and should be fitter for the two runs in so may run a little better than the odds suggest, but hard to see him winning this.
7-AYRTON is unbeaten at Caulfield and unbeaten this track and distance. Punters seem to have fallen out of love with this one after he started well in the market at just about every career start. Solid win here 1st up and then think his Flemington run was the best run from that race in a bunched finished, he was widest, the rails was the better going and he worked home really well, Drawn well and can sit just off the speed here and run into the race at the right time. Big plus that we are getting double figure odds today. Strong chance.
8-ZOUTORI seems to be past his best, and even on his best form 1400M was a query. Best form is Flemington, dry track and 1200M down the straight so hard to see him being a factor here.
9-BUFFALO RIVER is racing in career best form and well known for his dashing to the lead tactics. Group 1 chance here for jockey Gaudray who has been riding him so well last few starts. After being at the top level for so long think he appreciated dropping back in class and to smaller fields, think outside barrier, big field, and more pressure up front probably means he faces a task today.
10-CHAIN OF LIGHNING is pretty classy on her day and has an excellent Caulfield record. Chased hard first-up here and then don’t think the race was run to suit at Flemington. Does prefer a little give in the ground, but out to 1400M should suit, strong finisher off a fast speed and looks right in this here. Strong chance.
11-MAGIC TIME is an improving type who has been racing well up in Sydney. Can still do a few things wrong in the race and that may be an issue in a big field, drawn wide and likely to be caught wide off a fast speed. Definitely has the ability to win this so wary, but will have to be at very best. Chance.
12-MUNHAMEK is a strong finisher and simply a winner and he is going to be suited here with a fast tempo 1400M as he is one of the few proven past this distance and will probably be the strongest at the end of the race here. Snuck up on rails with no room last start at Flemington, and will have to drop to last here from outside barrier is the main issue – giving some of these a big start off a fast speed. If they can get across to mid-field he probably win this so definite chance given the right ride and finishing on strongly down the middle of the track. Chance.
13-CAUSE FOR CONCERN is probably a little under-rated and great ride to take the gap in a bunched finish last start at Flemington. Well drawn, strong finisher, and 1400M record is starting to look pretty good. Just the class may test today and think that last race would probably get a different result every time it was run. Slight chance only.
14-GENERAL BEAU totally stung us last time when he finally won over 1200M after giving him so many chances. Drawn wide, races handy, caught wide, and good Flemington record, but just can’t see him running out a fast tempo 1400M here. No
15-CROSSHAVEN is a good on-pacer who keeps his best form for Flemington and dry tracks. Surprised with even effort down the straight 1st up, but he is going to get caught up on the speed here and think he is best when he can control the speed or sit handy off an even tempo.
16-WROTE TO ARATAKI is a fit in form mare and think you want to be wary of those types in this race with no weight. Good distance stats, and coming off a win this track and distance and maybe just needs to sit off the speed a little today and should be around the finish somewhere. Good value roughie.
Summary:
The speed here is the key and it does look like a fast run 1400M, so looking to those well drawn and sitting just off the speed who run into the race at the right time. The 7-ARYTON is a clear top pick and surprised he is double figure odds given that punters normally launch into him and expect he will be backed, from the 4-BANDERSNATCH who looks to get a good run on-speed, and the classy 10-CHAIN OF LIGHTNING probably better suited over this distance and a bit fresher than many of these. Best rough is the 16-WROTE TO ARATAKI with a good on-speed run. Plenty of value in an open field so can back a few to win at double figure odds here.
Race 1: 5-SAINT BATHANS, 6-MR FRENCH, 4-LETS’ROLLTHEDICE
Race 2: 7-SO RISQUE, 10-FORBIDDEN CITY, 4-MERIDIUS
Race 3: 5-BIG BREW, 10-MR MOJO RISIN’, 6-MARACANA
Race 4: 2-SALTAIRE, 5-LOVAZOU, 1-DE SONIC BOOM
Race 5: 4-HYPOTHETICAL, 9-PROWLING, 12-FASUTO
Race 6: 3-SNAPBACK, 1-ARKANSAW KID, 10-SUNSET DREAMING
Race 7: 6-JOLIESTAR, 2-COEUR VOLANTE, 12-VIBRANT SUN
Race 8: 7-ARYTON, 4-BANDERSNATCH, 10-CHAIN OF LIGHTNING
Race 9: 10-CONVENER, 11-RED SUN SENSATION, 4-SUIZURO
Race 10: 2-SHE DANCES, 6-FORTUNATE KISS, 1-QUEEN OF THE BALL
