Warm weather during the week and really strong winds Friday, even with some rain forecast for Friday night this track should still come up pretty firm. Wind forecast again for Saturday so keep an eye on the racing pattern, it may favour those with cover from the wind. If the wind drops leaders may be hard to run down on a firm track, else most likely want those on-speed with cover and bursting through the pack late. Strong wind means they should be able to run on and win down the middle of the track. Smaller fields in the first half of the program and those well in the market will be hard to beat, but plenty of value in the latter half of the day.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 2: 7-EAGLE EXPRESS $5 WIN
This one is in flying form, finishing strongly here last start late when a leader pinched the race and swooped from last past the whole field to win last start at Sandown. Looks to be enough speed here to set a genuine tempo and may need luck coming through the field from barrier 1, but also may be too strong at the end of the race today, especially if the wind stays up. Straight out at around $4.50
BEST WIN: Race 7: 2-BUCKAROO $5 WIN
Extremely backable odds here for a proven Melbourne spring performer and keen to have a decent whack on this one today. Won this race easily last year, should have gone close to winning both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups and only defeated in the Turnbull by VIA SISTINA. Surprised with forward run 1st up, sure he was in the best ground close to the rails and suited by the fast tempo, but if he repeats his form from last spring he will win this. Seems generous odds at $5 straight out.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 15-MISS ROUMBINI $4 EW
Really like the way this one is coming up this spring and first-up run was full of merit, ridden more forward than usual and wide and hit the lead about 100M out, only to be run down by a proven class mare. Speed on here should suit and likely to be ridden a little quieter today and pull to the middle of the track for a strong finish. Lightly weighted mares have a good record in this race and keen to have something each way at around $15.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 18-BRAYDEN STAR $4 EW
We made this one Lay of the Day last start, but keen to jump on today. Key to him is the firm track here. Fitter for the two runs in and was hitting the line well last start and drawn well to sit handy in a muddling early spring staying race and sprint through at the right time. Has been two years since last win but has run some good races in that time. Was second emergency but now in the field and looks a great each-way bet at around $11
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 12-LITZDEEL $4 EW, QUINELLA 1,3,8,12 boxed x $3 = 50%
Improving stayer and keen to see what she can do this spring. First-up run here was full of merit when was working to the line well late and should have plenty of improvement to come off that run. Drawn well and can race handy in a race with not that much speed and plenty of backmarkers and may step up a level today. Each way at around $18 and box up in a quinella with the 1-FERNAO who was good late from last last start, the 3-WHISKY ON THE HILL who is close to a win this time in with a few runs in, and the favourite the 8-GILDED WATER for his Majesty.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 11-YUM $2 EW
These early 3YO Guineas races can often throw up a result as horses improve rapidly with one or two career starts and up in distance. The favourite the 6-VIVID SUN is going to be very hard to beat here, but behind them there really isn’t much between these so this one may run a race at odds. Strong to the line at first career start and then won running away from them last start and might do something today at around $25.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 14-GRAND PIERRO $2 EW
Having a second bet in Race 9 on this fella, he might be ready to do something now with the two runs in. He is a pretty handy stayer on his day, loves a firm track and drawn well here and can just roll along behind the speed and get himself into the finish in a field of lots of drop back early spring warm ups. Didn’t mind the run here last start when whacked away well in a spread out field when gave the leading bunch a massive head-start. Key will be to go forward here and make sure of the barrier. Rough at a massive $61.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 9: 17-HALF YOURS at around $2
Lots of silly spring spruik many around last few weeks and often it comes for Sydney horses in Melbourne (and also internationals off a single good run). This one is showing a stack of ability in QLD campaign and probably has more upside than most of these, but drawn inside barrier, drop back horse in a big muddling field seems a risk. Best form is on wet tracks and onto a firm track here and regardless taking $2 in a field of 20 stayers just seems to be asking for trouble. May be too good for these, but represents zero value and prefer to back others.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a 60th wedding anniversary present for loyal Turf Deli followers.
TRIFECTA Race 8: 5,9 / 5,9,10,14,15 / 2,5,9,10,14,15,17 x $5 = 12.5%
The Rupert Clarke Stakes is always a good trifecta race and looks to be plenty of value this year. We have already backed the top pick 15-MISS ROUMBINI each way, so as a saver taking the trifecta with the next two selections to win 5-ARKANSAW KID and 9-ANGEL CAPITAL and the value place getter here is the 14-CHORLTON LANE back onto a firm track. Tempting fate if the top pick wins and we miss a juicy trifecta.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 2,9 / 5,9,10,14,15 / 3,10,14,16,18 / 1,3,8,12 x $20 = 10%
Can narrow down the first leg to the two favourites 2-BUCKAROO, 9-SIR DELIUS and open up a world of possibilities with open races to end the program.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 7: UNDERWOOD STAKES 1800M GROUP 1
Often a lack of speed in this race, and nothing different this year. The 3-SMOKIN’ ROMANS and the 8-GOLDEN PATH most likely to go forward here, with the 4-DESERT LIGHTNING sitting handy and the 10-MOIRA not far off. They are unlikely to go a solid tempo here so looking for something with class turn of foot off a mediocre tempo.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-KNIGHT’S CHOICE SCRATCHED
2-BUCKAROO probably could have won both the Caulfield Cup (made run too late) and the Melbourne Cup (early run too wide) last year. Won this race with ease last year and was competitive in just about everything last Melbourne Spring (only beaten by VIA SISTINA in the Turnbull), then a pretty poor Sydney autumn campaign. Might be better Melbourne way of going and may be better on firm tracks. First-up run in the Memsie was excellent, sure he was in the best ground along the inside - but he ran past quite a few good ones there in a surprise forward showing. He has the class turn of foot to win this and surprised about the $5 here – he should be clear favourite on form. Top chance.
3-SMOKIN’ ROMANS is a tough on-speed horse who fought out the finish well last start only beaten by a smart one going places. Improvement still to come with two runs in from a spell and likely to be able to dictate the speed here. May prefer some give in the ground and maybe not at WFA, but if the on-pacers are sticking on OK he will run a race here. Rough chance.
4-DESERT LIGHTNING had everything go his way last start, fairly weak field, controlling the speed at MV and excellent run first-up in the Lawrence here. In winning form and race fit going into this race is a big plus. Out past 1600M for the first time, and even though its only 200M that has to be some query. Market is probably the best guide and he seems generous odds for a last start winner. Even with a soft run on-speed here expect something will run out the trip stronger. Place only.
5-CASINO SEVENTEEN looks well and truly outclassed at this level, even on best form, and he isn’t showing much form at the moment regardless. No
6-LAND LEGEND ran a great race here last year in the Caulfield Cup and might be ready to show something this time in with the two runs in. Ran on well first-up, then did little last start. Back onto firmer ground should suit and should be running on late but probably still needs one more run. No.
7-MIDDLE EARTH went around well supported in an Australian Cup before form tapered off in first Australian preparation. Worked home solidly here first-up with a big weight from well back in the field. Drop back in distance here looks a query, looks a solid staying type who wants a big track and stepping up in distance. Not sure they are going to go fast enough here. Place chance only.
8-GOLDEN PATH was a tough win in a busy finish last week from a wide barrier with a big weight. Likely to go forward here and be a little wary of this one, with race fitness and winning form going forward against a lot of drop back stayers early in their preparations. Suspect he might give a bit of a kick here and prove hard to run down. Rough.
9-SIR DELIUS has impressed in two Australian starts and was well in the market first-up when almost chased down an all the way leader and winner. Should be able to settle handy in this field and chase strongly in the straight and looks extremely hard to beat – but the odds are dreadful for a Sydney horse coming to Melbourne way of going (let alone to Caulfield) onto a firm track (prefers wet?). Strong chance and very hard to beat, but can’t back at these odds.
10-MOIRA has been working through her races well and looks like she might go on this spring, but it is probably time now to win a race. Fitter for the two runs in and today will really be a test to where she sits. Watch for market moves on this one, but suspicions are she will find one or two better today again. Prefer place.
11-ZARDOZI has had so many chances and really needs to put another win on the board. Has consistently run some great races at the top level, but just can’t find that next win – but she may have struck a winnable race here. First-up run was excellent when dropped too far back and making good ground late and up in distance with improve fitness think she represents some value today at around $20. Best rough chance.
12-ANISETTE is another import trying to find out where she slots in here and has little market interest. Worked home well in the Lawrence, but given a freshen up since then and would prefer to see again. No
Summary:
Really looks a race between the top two in the market, but we think the 2-BUCKAROO is a standout here off his form last spring. He has the turn of foot to win this and looks to be heading back to best with good first-up run and proven time and time again in these sort of races. Keen to back him today and his main rival 9-SIR DELIUS looks really poor value with a stack of Sydney money coming through, dry track Melbourne way of going is a totally different equation. May live up to the hype, but prefer to back the 2-BUCKAROO. Roughie is the 11-ZARDOZI who has gotten out to pretty decent odds now that everyone has dropped off her.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 8: SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES 1400M GROUP 1
Great to see the Rupert Clarke Stakes back in its traditional spring positon and it’s no surprise it has attracted a capacity field this year. Always a great betting race with a good spread of weights and in a big field often there are some hard luck stories so getting a clear run at the right time is crucial here. Having the race back in this position in the calendar means we have quite a few lightly raced and weighted improving horses using this race as a springboard into Spring. As is the case for any feature Group 1 you need to be in prime form to win this, so look for last start winners or placegetters.
Big field and sure to be a genuine tempo here with the 2-HERE TO SHOCK the most likely leader, from the 7-ZARASTRO and 5-ARKANSAW KID, with the 1-ANOTHER WIL and 6-FEROCE sitting handy and the 17-ZOU SENSATION next in line. Key to the speed here is how aggressive they are on the 7-ZARASTRO pressing forward. Enough pressure up front and big field will mean a genuine speed, but still good chance something on-speed can sprint and pinch this race whilst the backmarkers run into dead-ends behind them.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-ANOTHER WIL is a top-liner with excellent track and distance statistics and whilst he is highly competitive at Group 1, he is not dominant as such and needs the right race to win at this level. Was disappointing first-up here in the Memsie, and likely to have a lot of improvement for that run. Probably prefers a track on the firmer side. Ran second in this race last year when it was at the end of spring, starting a short priced favourite and carrying 56kgs and has to carry 59kgs here. Going to get a good run on-speed from a good barrier and would be competitive in this on his best form, but wary of a horse coming off a poor run giving 7kgs to over half the field here. Horses with big weights have managed to win this race in recent years, and he has the class and watch the market for a positive move, but suspect he probably finds one better here. Place only.
2-HERE TO SHOCK is the likely leader and pace-setter here and will have to sustain that pressure up front. Excellent career win strike rate and should be ready to peak now with the two runs in, first-up run in the Lawrence was good, and then got caught up in a surprise burning along leader tempo in the Memsie and punctured accordingly. Won the Victoria Hcp here last year and excellent track and distance stats. Main issue is he does seem harshly weighted with 58kgs here, and Group 1 record isn’t the best, but expecting a good run on-speed here and seems a decent rough chance. Rough.
3-PINSTRIPED totally confused everyone being sent out to a fast lead last start against his normal racing pattern and totally mucked up speed maps. Fitter for the two runs in and first-up run in the Lawrence wasn’t that bad, he was closing late and should have plenty of improvement to come. Blinkers went on last start and looks like they are staying on here which is interesting, hopefully they can get him to settle today. He has the class to win this, and if he can settle handy and relax he can actually win this race on this best form so even though he is $50 suspect he is going to run a decent race today. Rough.
4-AIRMAN is coming into this race 2nd up and up 200M and even though the Bobbie Lewis is often a good form race for this, that was usually when it was two weeks before, before the dates changed. He was travelling nicely on-speed last week down the middle of the track and let down pretty well, the ones that fought out the finish came through on the inside of the straight which was probably the better going. Handles all track conditions. Likely to go forward here and may get caught out wide on a slow tempo – but he does have a really good sprint. Yet to prove himself at 1400M is the main issue. Another who is not hopeless though, would want a slowly run race and to sprint clear in clearing running early in the straight. Rough place chance. SCRATCHED
5-ARKANSAW KID is racing extremely consistently and perfect ride last start to get up on the inside in the better going. Good Caulfield record and likely to settle just behind the speed here. Competitive at Group 1 level and although he hasn’t won at 1400M he has been right in the finish quite a few times. Not sure barrier 1 is the best here, if they don’t come off the rails he may need some luck to get a run in a big field, but also may get cover and burst through at the right time with some luck. Big tick for him is that he is in winning form into a feature Group 1 so has to be respected on-speed with the right run. Strong chance.
6-FEROCE should have won the Caulfield Guineas here last year when he just missed the bob, but made amends with the Australian Guineas in the Autumn. Worked to the line fairly here last start with a big weight and should be improved, but 2nd up and up 300M in distance here, although probably gets the genuine firm track he wants. Will settle handy and in clear running but just prefer him to have another run this time in before getting on. Risking.
7-ZARASTRO is a QLD visitor who likes to set the speed and will likely go forward here again and put the pressure on up front. Did work out wide here last start, but was safely held. Competitive around the 1300M range in QLD so should run out the trip, but the query is running out the trip at Group 1 level in a big feature field and pressured up on the speed. Prefer to risk.
8-PORT LOCKROY has run some good races in feature miles and is more effective over the 1600M to 2000M range. Most likely using this race as a lead in run to some feature miles later in the Spring, drop back type who needs a few runs to find form each time in. Passing.
9-ANGEL CAPITAL looks to have a stack of ability and can quickly go through the grades this spring. First-up win was dominant, swooped off the MV turn and sailed straight past them. Won here fresh over 1400M back in the Autumn as well and unbeaten this track and distance. Drawn wide but probably wants to get out wide and run into the race before the turn so that’s not really a disadvantage and there should be enough speed on here. May be a brilliant fresh horse? Probably better on a dry track which he should get. Definitely hard to beat here, suspect the money might come for this one and may start extremely poor value. Strong chance.
10-DAMASK ROSE is a NZ mare who hit the line really strongly here last start coming from last at first Australian start. Appalling barrier draw and likely to end up at the back of a big field here and will need the speed on and some luck – but if they are winning down the middle of the track in tough conditions would be including this one. Last start run was really good and looks to have some upside. Rough chance.
11-ANOTHER PROPHET did little here in the Cockram first-up, but needs to get out to a mile to show her best. Upset win against potential top liner in the Thousand Guineas here last spring. Likely to drop well back from an outside barrier and prefer later in her preparation. No. SCRATCHED.
12-IS IT ME strung together some impressive wins last preparation and has been thrown into some harder races this time in, sent around as short-priced favourite in Adelaide and only fair and then never in the running in the Memsie. Fitter for the two runs in and should be ready to show something here today. Good barrier draw and can settle not too far behind the speed. Unlikely to see him winning this, but he is probably a good long shot place getter to throw into wider exotics. No
13-JENNILALA is coming into this race first-up, which is pretty much an impossible task. Actually has a pretty good first-up record and interesting that she ran 3rd behind the (1) and (2) here this track and distance last spring when first-up. Nice trial win coming into this, but drawn inside barrier and likely to get caught up back in the field here. No
14-CHORLTON LANE became a bit of a punters bogey horse last spring and we seem to have deserted him in droves. Well in the market every start last preparation and right in the finish, but couldn’t get a win on the board. Gave a strung out field a massive start first-up and managed to go past half the field in a pretty decent run. Needs a dry track and likely to get it. Excellent distance stats and well-drawn and coming off a good first-up run he is a pretty decent rough place chance here. Rough place.
15-MISS ROUMBINI is lightly raced with a fair bit of potential and was right in the finish last start in the Cockram in what is likely to be a strong form race. She normally drops back in the run but managed to settle handier there and was three-wide all the way, but ran into the race nicely and hit the front about 100M out before being run down late by a pretty smart one (who coincidentally won this race in 2023). Drawn wide and probably ridden a bit quieter today, but she can run on strongly down the middle of the track here. Quite like the last run and think she is the value runner here at around $15 each-way. Strong chance.
16-SEPALS has always shown a fair bit of potential and was a late SCR at the barrier earlier in the spring when well in the market at WFA level, but caught up on preparation here last meeting with a very impressive win. Drawn wide and likely to drop well back here and will need the speed on and he does seem to prefer genuinely wet tracks. Would probably want conditions to suit, wet track and running on down the middle of the track, but will he get them? Chance, but would wait till race time and just the weather and racing conditions.
17-ZOU SENSATION (emergency) strung together some nice wins last preparation but was then well held by the (9) last start. More sedate tempo over 1400M here on-speed likely to suit this one and well-drawn to settle just behind the speed. Will be thereabouts in the finish, but probably unlikely to win. Place.
Summary:
This looks a really good betting race and plenty of interest in this field and you would think one of the lightly weighted and lightly raced up and comers in the 9-ANGEL CAPITAL, 15-MISS ROUMBINI, and 16-SEPALS goes on here at Group 1 level.
We actually like the 15-MISS ROUMBINI here, the Cockram run was excellent, she was wide all the way and hit the front about 100M out before being run down late and the form from that race has already stood-up. Respect the form and the consistency of the 5-ARKANSAW KID as the main danger who likely gets the perfect run behind the speed and with cover and just needs the gap to open up for a run, and wary of the brilliance of the 9-ANGEL CAPITAL (but he may also may end up pretty poor value in a big field at Group 1). Best rough is the 10-DAMASK ROSE, especially if there is a bit of rain and they are winning down the middle of the track.
Looks a good punting race, so something each way on the top pick at $15 and a wide trifecta for the placings with the main chances to win. Roughies for the wide trifecta include 14-CHORLTON LANE and 17-ZOU SENSATION.
Race 1: 8-PRESSER, 4-AL DUCA, 5-PRINCE ERIC
Race 2: 7-EAGLE EXPRESS, 6-DEEP PLEASURE, 2-FLYER
Race 3: 10-LOVELYCUT, 1-SEE YOU IN HEAVEN, 4-MIRAVAL ROSE
Race 4: 4-OAK HILL, 6-TIGER SHARK, 1-NADAL
Race 5: 5-STAY COSMIC, 6-PLANET RED, 4-BINGI
Race 6: 6-VIVID SUN, 11-YUM, 12-CHATEAU EZA
Race 7: 2-BUCKAROO, 9-SIR DELIUS, 11-ZARDOZI
Race 8: 15-MISS ROUMBINI, 5-ARKANSAW KID, 9-ANGEL CAPITAL
Race 9: 18-BRAYDEN STAR, 10-BERKSHIRE BREEZE, 14-GRAND PIERRO
Race 10: 12-LITZDEEL, 3-WHISKY ON THE HILL, 8-GILDED WATER
