Warm weather and a sunny day ahead so this track is going to get quite firm and like last week at Flemington that may mean we get some sudden form reversals. Firming track and rail out at Caulfield normally favours those on-speed, but the wind today will also make an impact on that if it is into their faces and picks up during the day. So maybe on-speed with some cover may be the way to go.
The Rupert Clarke Stakes is such a better race in its traditional spring calendar position and it is always one of the best punting races of the spring. There are a few races here where the favourites will almost certainly fight the race out, but most of the bigger fields are pretty open races with plenty of chances and depth, especially as a lot of horses are early on in their campaigns and we have yet to really see how they are travelling this time in.
For Spring Campaign 2026 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 5-WOLF GAP $5 WIN
Up and coming 3YO who was ridden far too quietly at Sandown last start and gave those on-speed a massive start before working home well late behind the 3-BLIND RAISE who starts the favourite here. These two almost certainly fight out this race, but think this one can turn the tables today ridden with cover and in touch with the rest of the field and out to the 1400M. Straight out at around $3.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 7-DON’T HOPE SO $4 EW
Good jump and run dry track sprinter when in form and he can be hard to run down when he gets his own way in front. Best form is this track and distance and he has been competitive in harder races than this. Never got warm last start when first-up on a wet track, but we may see a different horse today and good chance he can find the lead and the rails here. Each way at around $11.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 9-ICELADY $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 9-ICELADY#5,10,11,12 x $2 = 50%
This one is still a maiden, but she has been in the finish most of her career starts. Beaten by a smart one last start who ran really well at Flemington last week and is a strong form reference. Out to the 1400, but like that she can sit handy here or lead here and there are a few in this field who aren’t showing their best form this time in or have had their chances. Each way at around $8 and anchor in a quinella with the 5-PROFLIGATE who was an eye-catcher late last start, the 10-SAINTLY DANCER on-speed on a dry track and throw in two up and comers the 11-BURNING HEARTZ and the 13-DOUBLE DODGER as the value runners.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 7-PORTER $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 10: 7-PORTER#5,6,14,19 x $4 = 50%
Really consistent dry track 1400M leader when in from and he can be really hard to run down when right and allow to dictate in front. First-up run here was excellent, he almost ground down an all the way leader and winner and that was on a wet track and his best form is on dry ground which he gets here today. Excellent distance stats and he should get a clear lead here. Each way at around $6 and anchor in a quinella with the strong finishing and up and coming 19-SAVOYARD, the roughie 5-HE’LL RIP who is drawn wide but ultra-consistent and will appreciate getting back on a dry track, the 6-PRESSER as the other on-speed runner and the 14-WATERSPORTS at odds who will improve back on a dry track today.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 12-PHOTOGRAPH $2.50 EW
This one put in a sensational run last start coming through the field from last to be right in the finish and prefer to back him over the winner from that race. Dry track stats don’t look the best but most of those have been 4ths or not beaten that far so those stats may be misleading. Scratched from a weaker race in Sydney today for this Group 3. Last run was outstanding and we are getting $11 today which is great odds, but she will need to run down the leader the favourite 10-BRIDAL WALTZ.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 10-PLANET RED $2.50 EW
Keen to have something on this roughie in the feature race, the record of 4YOs in this race is excellent (and there are only two 4YOs in the field this year) and he put in some great runs here at Caulfield as a 3YO. Strong finisher, back on dry track is a big plus and they managed to settle him more handy than normal last start and taking up a position in running will be a big plus today in this field. Rough at around $31.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 10: 17-CRUISERWEIGHT at around $2.70
This one has been racing really well and is in-form, but just keeps getting backed like he is unbeatable, which he is definitely not. He has been beaten at $2.60 and $1.80 the last two starts and is going to go around a short priced favourite again today. Zero in the way of dry track form and that has to be a query, especially on a firming track on a windy day. Plenty here with ability and happy to take this one on.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a 150th birthday present for the MRC.
TRIFECTA: Race 9: 5-ANGEL CAPITAL, 13-REGAL AWARD / 5,8,10,11,13 / 2,4,5,8,10,11,13,15 x $5 = 10.4%
Take a trifecta in the feature race with a wide betting market, the main chances to win and there are a stack of roughies who can run a place like the 8-FEROCE, 10-PLANET RED and 11-SABAJ.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 1,2 / 3,11,14,16,18 / 5,10,11,13 / 5,6,7,14,19 x $20 = 10%
The Flemington Quaddie last week still paid $40,000 even with the short-priced favourite winning the feature race, so let’s be a little braver this week and go narrow in the first leg where the 2-BUCKAROO can cause the upset. Plenty of value through the remaining legs, especially taking on the short-priced favourite in the last leg.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 9 SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES GROUP 1 1400M
The Rupert Clarke Stakes is always one of the best punting races of the spring and it can pay to tend towards those sitting handy as those dropping back in this race can often strike interference. Big field normally ensures a solid speed, the 13-REGAL AWARD shows his best form when he jumps and runs but suspect they probably take a sit here behind the 18-TENNESSEE BOUND (emerg) if she gets into the field. The 2-EVAPORATE will probably want to go forward early on in the race and get up near the speed from a wide barrier, the 8-FEROCE likes to sit handy and the 6-LADY SHENANDOAH can take up a good position from the inside barrier. If the emergency doesn’t get into this field there may not be much pressure up front here in a big field where most of these are backmarkers.
Worth noting a few things, the only horse to win this race first-up in the last 30 years was JUNGLE CAT in 2018, so this is not an easy race to win at all first-up and normally prefer horses with a few runs in. Traditionally this is a race for lightly raced horses, but in the last ten years we have had three winners carry 57kgs or more, and since 2010 4YOs have won 10 of the 16 editions.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-TOM KITTEN faces a tough task as top weight as he has to give most of this field 6-7 kgs. Proven at the Group 1 level, and he has a good second-up record. Wouldn’t read anything into the first up effort, the leader dictated that race and it was an even bunch behind them. Won first-up here last Autumn over this distance, but he really had to launch late and only just got there on the line. Big weight, wide barrier, like to drop back and need luck and he will be running on late, but prefer place only. Won’t be far off them though. Place.
2-EVAPORATE has been a frustrating horse to follow over the last few years and we have been stung a few times, but his run in the Toorak Hcp here last spring was fantastic from well back. He can be slowly away, so he can often take off early in the race to get up on-speed or leading. The win last start at Sandown was really good, he was giving the speed a decent start and these were the sort of races he would normally throw away. Placed 5/9 here and has never won at Caulfield. Wide barrier is a major issue here, they will have to be conservative out of the barrier and then try to move forward early on in the race – so listen out for riding tactics here. If he settles back that takes more speed out of the race. Fitter for two runs in and seems to be racing in best career form, and the win last start might mean he is going to reach his potential this time in. Will take a good ride, but has the talent to win this. Chance.
3-SEPALS won this race last year when he was a well-supported favourite but he really hasn’t gone on with it since then. Doubt he gets past 1400M and interesting to note that his best two runs since the win last year have been on wet tracks. Won this race last year coming off a very impressive first-up win and carrying 52 kgs, this year coming into this race first-up (extremely hard to win) and has to carry 56.5 kgs. Well drawn and he is the sort to sprint though the pack late, but the jump outs haven’t been impressive and prefer to see how he comes up this time in. Passing.
4-WAR MACHINE showed a lot of potential early but his career seems to have gone off the boil, bad luck, injury, breaking lose before the start and being scratched, needs to get his form back on the board. First-up run was actually pretty good, he was held up for runs for quite a while behind the pack and worked to the line pretty well once clear. 2nd up and up 300M to the 1400M, but has a sensational record at this distance. Wide barrier makes his task even more difficult. Right in this on his best form, but he may face a challenge this year. Quite capable of being around the finish though and finishing on strongly late from well back. Good barrier and he would have been right in calculations here. Place.
5-ANGEL CAPITAL was the hard luck story of this race last year when he was flying home late and has continued to make flashy runs late and be held up for runs in several of his runs since, so the potential and the talent is there, but the execution is definitely starting to frustrate punters. Firm track suits. Didn’t handle the wet track here last start. Well drawn and chance he can settle more handy today and be in prime pouncing position on the turn. Excellent Caulfield track stats, fitter for the two runs in and think maybe the 1200M races are a little on the short side for this one. Many punters are dropping off but think his race sets up very nicely for him this year off a couple of runs this time in. Strong chance.
6-LADY SHENANDOAH is the ultra-consistent mare who has had the misfortunate of having to chase home smart horses in Sydney quite a few times in her career. Can settle on-speed and one likely to take up a prime position just behind the leaders here from a good barrier. Sydney horse, barrier 1 around Caulfield in a big field can always be a bit of an issue and you wouldn’t want her to drift too far back on the rails here – she will never get out. Worth noting she was probably a bit disappointing in only previous Melbourne run last spring. Best form is definitely good enough for this race, just not sure that the odds are value though. Note jockey Williams incredible record in this race. Definitely can win and one to keep safe, but can’t tip her.
7-WARNIE is fitter for the two runs in and he was impressive chasing hard to win at Sandown last start, but the racing pattern (winning from well back out wide) was favourable that day. Did beat home several rivals there last start. Good barrier and maybe he can settle more handy here today? Does tend to normally drop well back in his races and may need luck weaving through the field from an inside barrier here. Always need to respect last start winners in this race and if they can settle more handy here he is right in this – the last start win was actually quite soft. Chance.
8-FEROCE is all about Caulfield, dry tracks and rolling along on-speed and still stinging that he missed the bob in the Caulfield Guineas here two years ago. Well drawn and he will settle handy and even effort first-up when lobbed in the perfect position and plenty of improvement to come off that run. In the finish in this race last year when second-up. He will settle in the perfect position here on-speed and will be in the finish here somewhere, so he is a must for trifectas and quinellas, but may find one better. Rough chance and prefer place.
9-VON HAUKE is a pretty talented strong finishing miler on his day and he has run some great races at this sort of level. Comes into this race first-up, ran a great race 1st up in the 1400M Victoria Hcp here in the Autumn, but previous first-up runs have normally been over sprint trips. Dry track suits. Normally take a few runs to find his best every time and he normally likes a mile race with a strong tempo as a backmarker. Likely to drop well back here and he will need a lot of luck getting through the field and not sure they are going to go fast enough for him here. Will be running on but not today. No.
10-PLANET RED is one that may be a little under-rated and he may go onto good things this spring. Strong finishing runs in his 3YO runs at this level and can forgive the first up run for many reasons, first up, wet track, and leader dominated did not suit. Interesting to note he settled handy last start when he has normally always dropped well back in his races. Much better suited back in a handicap and be interesting to see if they can settle more handy here today as well. 4YO have an excellent recent record in this race. On his 3YO form he is right in this with a light weight and interested to see what he can do here – think he is a genuine rough chance in this. Rough.
11-SABAJ is a smart type who has put together some sensational wins with his finishing bursts. Totally out of his depth at WFA first-up and much better suited here back to a handicap with light weight. Dry track suits and don’t mind a wide barrier for this one, he is not a backmarker as such, he just needs to get into clear running and unleash his sprint – he doesn’t even really need a fast speed. Wary of this one and a winning chance if he shows his best form. Chance.
12-YELLOW JERSEY was the spruik import who disappointed here last start at $2.15 favourite and he is suddenly now back to Group 1 1400M instead of staying trips. Drawn wide, likely to drop back, doubt they go that fast here and not sure the race will set up for him to run into the race. Watch the betting market, but no-one seems quite sure where this one belongs now after the last run. Prefer to see.
13-REGAL AWARD is one we follow and he looks perfectly set for this race. Best form is around Caulfield, dry track and jumping and running and good chance he will do that today from a good barrier and there doesn’t seem to be that much to put pressure on up front. He has developed an unfortunate habit of being slowly away and he tends to throw the race away and not settle when he does that. Two strong jump outs coming into this race. Light weight, and jockey Neindorf on here is important – most of his wins has been with him riding and he has not missed the start when he has been on board. 4YO is a big tick. There is one major negative though – only one horse has won this race first-up in the last 30 years and it is really hard to win these sort of races first-up. If he jumps and runs he probably wins – so you will know your chances shortly after the start - on his best form he wins this. Elevate if on-speed racing pattern. Strong chance.
14-SUN GOD is another one first-up, did everyone forget that this race was back earlier in the spring now? Seems to be improving with racing and great last two campaigns. Form suggests he prefers a mile and further and this is a tricky ride for a Sydney horse around Caulfield from an inside barrier dropping well back in the run. Another who may ran on late into the finish, but prefer place. Place.
15-PERSIAN SPIRIT is a strong finisher and looks a perfect light weight chance in a race like this. Fitter for the two runs in, both have been good but the (7) was with him at the back of the field last start and that one won under a hold and this one just seemed a little flat footed and was only warming up again late. Maybe he will be better off on a dry track? Has a massive finishing burst when in form. Was disappointing last start but still put him in as a rough chance here as this does look to suit. Rough.
16-RECON is fitter for the two runs in and he was an eye-catcher making ground late here first-up before failing down the straight last start, but it always pays to forgive poor Flemington straight runs. Not as proven at this level as many of his rivals and likely to get into an awkward position from a wide barrier. Prefer to risk against these. No
17-HARRY'S YACHT (emerg) is pretty honest when he strikes form and comes into this 2nd up and up 300M, and the 1100M was just too short last start. Excellent Caulfield and 1400M stats, and would be a good rough chance in this on his best form. Drawn wide makes this pretty tricky and he may end up at the back of the field here. Ridden along in last jumpout for clear win. Light-weight rough chance to place for the wider trifectas. Rough place.
18-TENNESSEE BOUND (emerg) creates a lot of interest as the other pace influence, but has to get into the field first as second emergency, if she doesn’t get in it will take a lot of the speed out of the race. Won six of her first six starts and then finished second last two starts, so guess that sort of counts as a form slump? Has been brave leading last two starts, but she has been getting run down late over 1300M and she does look a lot more vulnerable past 1200M and in a big field with pressure up front probably even more so. Happy to risk, but key runner as to whether she starts or not when doing the form for this races. SCRATCHED
Summary:
Fascinating race to do the form for, and that stat of only one horse winning this race first-up for the last 30 years (or more) is definitely worth taking note of. Otherwise we would have definitely put the 13-REGAL AWARD on top, and if the 18-TENNESSEE BOUND doesn’t make the field this race is there for him to take. Which leaves us with the 5-ANGEL CAPITAL on top here, had the two runs in, maybe back at Caulfield on a dry track may make the difference here. The 13-REGAL AWARD the main danger to jump and lead and pinch this and there is a very strong chance of a roughie winning this year so out of those we will push for the 10-PLANET RED who seems to race best at Caulfield and the 11-SABAJ with the finishing sprint the other roughie to be wary of. Plenty can run into the placings at odds here though so good race for a wide trifectas.
Race 1: 3-EMPEROR TZU, 2-POLITELY DUN, 15-ORAQUA
Race 2: 3-ICY YOU, 1-ARASHI FLASH, 5-BOHEMIAN BOY
Race 3: 7-DON’T HOPE SO, 2-WINNASEDGE, 11-BEHAVIOUR
Race 4: 9-ICELADY, 5-PROFLIGATE, 10-SAINTLY DANCER
Race 5: 5-WOLF GAP, 3-BLIND RAISE, 7-SERAPHOX
Race 6: 12-PHOTOGRAPH, 10-BRIDAL WALTZ, 9-STARDOM
Race 7: 1-LINDERMANN, 2-BUCKAROO, 5-COSMIC CRUSADER
Race 8: 18-ZAKOUMA, 11-DEAKIN, 16-MACHINE GUN GRACIE
Race 9: 5-ANGEL CAPITAL, 13-REGAL AWARD, 10-PLANET RED
Race 10: 7-PORTER, 19-SAVOYARD, 5-HE’LL RIP
