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SANDOWN : SANDOWN CLASSIC - 17TH Nov 2007

Track: GOOD - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($100): Sandown finally gets a break over Spring Carnival - normally they race there every other day. Always be wary at this meeting, with this track finally getting a long deserved break there can be a very distinctive racing pattern – often favouring leaders. So watch the first couple of races closely, and be ready to adapt if a pattern is evident. Many of these are at the very end of their campaigns, trying to stop for one last drink before they stagger home – which can make them a dubious betting proposition, and even more dubious to share a taxi with. Prefer to be on those that are coming through late in the spring and have a bit left in the tank. Weather is perfect, track is good, just need to find some winners. Let’s spend $100 on the suggested bets again for no other reason that we are chasing an ordinary spring. RESULTS : Track races fairly evenly, though most races are won by those racing on the pace. That was because of the lack of speed in many races, but suspect the track favouring the on pacers. Tips have a decent day out - finally ! BEST BET : Race 6: 1-ZIPPING 1st W=$2.40 QUINELLA : Race 6: 1-ZIPPING, 5-BAUGHURST x $10 1st 1-ZIPPING W=$2.40, 3rd 5-BAUGHURST W=$17.70 RUNNING DOUBLE : Races 6,7 : 1-ZIPPING / 2,5,7,10,11 x $5 = $25 1st 1-ZIPPING W=$2.40 / - Pretty keen on the favourite in the main race, the (1), but probably going to start short. So instead of backing it to win, let’s take a quinella and a running double. Value by taking the quinella with the (5) who is suited at the weights, has been racing well. Pretty confident that the favourite, the (16) will get beaten in the Sandown Guineas, so let’s take a few at odds in Race 7. RESULTS : ZIPPING is pretty much a good thing (read detailed form below) and wins as he should. Genuine WFA horse in form and down in class, one of the few times you want to get on the short priced favorites. Of course - we aim for some more value - and miss the collect. Not far off a nice quinella with 1st and 3rd, and miss the winner in the 2nd leg of the double. BEST WIN : Race 5: 1-LET GO THOMMO $20 WIN BEST WIN : Race 5: 6-PENCELARON $10 WIN The (1) is a class sprinter who has been racing pretty well and is well and truly due for a win. Should win if they are running on OK. The (6) is the only danger, on pacer with not much speed in this race and huge run down the straight last start. One of these two should win, probably dependant on how track is racing. RESULTS : Both of these pretty disappointing, and in the finest punting tradition, the 3rd pick wins ! BEST EACH WAY : Race 2: 9-JUST CURIOUS $10 EW 1st W=$4.70, P=$1.80 = $47 + $18 = $65 Fitter for the 3 runs in, drawn well, races on pace and suspect on pacers will be suited especially early in the day. Last start sat just behind leader and stuck on OK once she had chased her down, but was left sitting for a few to come over the top. Lightly raced and still getting no weight. RESULTS : Track favouring on pacers, jumps to the lead, slows them right up and never looks in danger. BEST EACH WAY : Race 9: 15-GOLDFIELD ASHES $5 EW Fitter for the 3 runs in, does race well at Sandown and not much between most of these last start. Looks better suited into this race. RESULTS : Disappointing TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. Race 7 : QUINELLA : 2,5,7,10,11 boxed x 50 cents = $5 We are not keen on the favourite, the (16) in the Sandown Guineas as we think last start win was over flattering. Pretty even field, interesting to note how many previous winners of this race had their lead up run over MORE than 1600M, so think there is a good chance of an upset with a few at odds. Taken them in a quinella and hope for a dividend. RESULTS : The favourite we wanted to take on, 16-BELCENTRA fails to run a place and is generally disappointing, bit we fail to turn that into cash. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $65 NET : $-35

The Tips: Race 1: 6-SUN GLAZED, 5-STAR ROSE, 2-PRINCESS MARIZZA Race 2: 9-JUST CURIOUS, 10-CASUAL KISS, 11-DANZYLUM Race 3: 7-BOLD MOMENT, 6-GRAVITRON, 10-BLACKEN Race 4: 9-ESCADAIRE, 8-SEBRLE, 2-DISMISSAL Race 5: 1-LET GO THOMMO, 6-PENCELARON, 10-GIBRALTAR CAMPION Race 6: 1-ZIPPING, 5-BAUGHURST, 10-EXTEND Race 7: 11-RAEBURN, 2-ZACROONA, 10-PROTESTA Race 8: 3-STICKPIN, 1-ROYAL IDA, 11-AZTEC SMYTZER Race 9: 15-GOLDFIELD ASHES, 9-GUILD, 16-ZIP BABY ZIP

RACE 1: RESULTS

Tips: 6-SUN GLAZED 5-STAR ROSE 1st W=$7.70 2-PRINCESS MARIZZA

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 9-JUST CURIOUS 1st W=$4.70 10-CASUAL KISS 11-DANZYLUM SCR

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 7-BOLD MOMENT 3rd W=$6.80 6-GRAVITRON 10-BLACKEN 2nd W=$15.80

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 9-ESCADAIRE 1st W=$3.70 8-SEBRLE 2nd W=$11.00 2-DISMISSAL 3rd W=$5.70 Quinella : $21.90 Trifecta : $83.80

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 1-LET GO THOMMO 6-PENCELARON 10-GIBRALTAR CAMPION 1st W=$8.10

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 1-ZIPPING 1st W=$2.40 5-BAUGHURST 3rd W=$17.70 10-EXTEND

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 11-RAEBURN 2-ZACROONA 10-PROTESTA

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 3-STICKPIN 1-ROYAL IDA 2nd W=$4.40 11-AZTEC SMYTZER

RACE 9: RESULTS

Tips: 15-GOLDFIELD ASHES 9-GUILD 16-ZIP BABY ZIP 1st W=$13.90

RACE 6: SANDOWN CLASSIC 2400M GROUP 2 WFA

Tips: 1-ZIPPING 1st W=$2.40 5-BAUGHURST 3rd W=$17.70 10-EXTEND

Others: Pace: SLOW - DICATED BY LEADER Leaders : 10-EXTEND Handy : 3-MANDELA, 7-SENTIRE, 8-FIRE IN THE NIGHT Back : 1-ZIPPING, 2-BLUE MONDAY, 4-THE FUZZ, 5-BAUGHURST, 6-JUKEBOX JOHNNY, 9-RED LORD, 11-TRICK OF LIGHT, 12-CANCANELLE Chances: 1-ZIPPING looks better than most of these in this field. He is genuinely competitive at WFA and so is the best suited under this weight scale – most of these are handicappers only. Actually think he would be a pretty decent WFA contender if he stuck to that caper, ridden cold he has a powerful finishing burst. Last spring, ran 4th in the Melbourne Cup after a long staying preparation. This year, ran 4th in the Melbourne Cup after a short sharp spring preparation. Even though they were only 4ths, that’s a pretty good effort 2 years in a row, especially considering he was trained totally differently in each year. Genuinely versatile, and that shows a touch of class. Flashed home in Cox Plate, then “trainer” and jockey copped a bit of flak after very late finishing burst in the Mackinnon. Even though he ran in the Melbourne Cup , it was off a limited preparation, so should have plenty left for this. Probably drops back, so just make sure they are running on OK, but think he looks a class above these and previous runs have shown he is just about to win. Clear top pick and one to beat.1st W=$2.40 5-BAUGHURST is the sort of horse to watch out for in this race – only the 3 runs this time in since a short break – so has a bit more left in the tank than most of these. Last 2 runs have been excellent, zoomed up in fast lane along fence to grab the Werribee Cup, beating the (10), then safely held by that one last week. Does meet him extremely well on weights though – beaten 1.5L, meets the (10) 3kgs better – pretty much evens out the margin. Been racing extremely well, placed 8 of last 9. Strong finisher who is probably suited here, been carrying weight in handicaps so WFA probably suites. Definitely goes in as a strong chance. 3rd W=$17.70 10-EXTEND is a promising stayer on his way up, and that’s often the type you want in this race. Only missed the place twice in 9 starts. Was flushed out early at Werribee on leader’s track, jockey hooked out and went for home, looked home, but one snuck up on the fence. Won easily last start – but not all that well weighted against the (5) from that race. On pacer, and probably leads easily here if they want – there is really nothing else to challenge him in the lead. Did lead and set a genuine tempo 3 starts back at Caulfield when only faded in last 50M – and form from that race has held up. Out to 2400M for the 1st time, to Sandown for the first time, and already had a fairly long preparation for a lightly raced horse are all a concern. On the improve, a lot of these are going nowhere, and looks like he can control this race. Will be thereabouts, not overly keen though and would want some give in the odds. Chance. Place: 3-MANDELA is a NZer who has shown some form over here previously, winning last year’s Geelong Cup and major race in QLD over winter. NZ form was good before coming over, though hasn’t really shown much in 2 runs over here this spring. Not that far off them last start, but still hardly convincing. Carried weight in that run, so actually suited here at WFA – meets the (4) 2kgs better and the (7) 3kgs better. Nice barrier and might race a little more forward. Suspect he will improve a little today, but still only place at best. 4-THE FUZZ has stepped up and become the genuine stayer he promised to be this time in. SCR from Melbourne Cup on the morning of the race when he couldn’t find an outfit. Had a pretty long preparation, and would be a bit concerned about him going around once more here, but guess he was primed for the Melbourne Cup and did miss that, so has something left. Not sure how severe the injury was that caused him to miss the Cup. He is extremely one paced, he needs a solid pace on, not sure he gets it in this race. Drawn out is a plus though, as he doesn’t have the turn of foot to take runs through a field, and needs to grind into his races, so long uphill run home here will probably suit. Just strikes us as a very one dimensional grinding stayer and not overly enthused about him here, even against similar horses. Will be thereabouts – prefer place. 7-SENTIRE has only had the 3 runs in and they have all been excellent, running on just behind the place getters and screaming “look at me”, “look at me” and “back me next start”. Not well in at weights here against those he raced against last start. Does go well here with Hillside win on top of his Lakeside form. Can race more forward, might see him race closer to the lead here with not much pace on. Does look ready to win – not sure this is the race though. Prefer place today, but get on him in something suitable soon. 8-FIRE IN THE NIGHT is more versatile than most of these, races more forward, and there is not much pace in this, and can sit and sprint if need be. Has stayed away from tempting spring targets during cup week to be aimed for this race, rather than as an afterthought as is the case for many of his opposition. Probably a bit more classier than most of these because he is more versatile – he could probably be competitive in genuine WFA races. Query with him is the distance – think he is a bit of a risk at 2400M – especially at Sandown with the long uphill run home. Yet to win past 2000M, failed in the SA Derby when well in the market, and only other run was as long shot in last year’s VRC Derby when failed to do anything. Suspect he will position close to the lead here, look a winning chance about 200M from home, but get run down heading towards the line. Still a strong place chance. Sacking: 2-BLUE MONDAY is an overseas import who has been taking all before him this spring – often running on and daring to finish as high as 5th or even, no, could it be possible ?, 4th , in dashing displays of outstanding talent. Had the 5 runs in , ran on a little each time, but never seriously challenged. Ran in WFA races through the spring and not disgraced, but barely challenged. These are handicappers, not WFA horses. Still, can hardly recommend him on form. No 6-JUKEBOX JOHNNY is a capable enough stayer on his day. Had the 4 runs in, so fresher than most of these, and MV Cup run as good, before just a fair effort last week in the Queen Elizabeth – although the on pacers dominated that race and nothing made much ground from back. Does drop well back, strong finisher who needs pace on. Is capable, but limited ability, and don’t think he is suited at WFA here .He was won twice Sandown Hillside on top of his Sandown Lakeside win so does go well here, but passing today. 2nd W=$26.60 9-RED LORD was going along nicely early in the spring, then put in two shockers – no idea what happened either. Did nothing 3 starts back at Flem, then went forward against normal racing pattern in MV Cup and they really raced along, so no surprise to see him stop suddenly. Came out on Cup Day and ran away from them in impressive win. Probably drops back again here and not sure there is that much pace. Have to believe last start win though, he was pretty impressive. Another who has had a long preparation, and looks a bit dubious at WFA. Doesn’t actually win all that often. But unsure exactly what to do with him, but probably let him run as would be surprised to see him string 2 on end. No 11-TRICK OF LIGHT has had a massive spruik on her for a fair while now, that is starting to wear thin and the bubble may have well and truly popped. Last spring / autumn looked an up and comer and looking to be a major cup contender this time in. Hasn’t been far off them in 4 runs this time in, but hasn’t gone anywhere never living up to expectations. Ran on just OK in Geelong Cup, and again last week in a race that was on pace dominated, when started well supported. Looks to us to be running below form and cannot recommend on that basis. Risking. 12-CANCANELLE hasn’t won past 1400M, though did manage placing over 1800M/2000M last Autumn. Has been set for staying trips this time in, and quite obvious to everyone except maybe the owners that she just isn’t suited over these distances. Ran on OK in Geelong Cup and again last week, without seriously challenging, and this race is harder again. Definitely not going well enough. No Summary: Always a funny ol’ race, especially after they changed it from being a good old hard slogging handicappers Sandown Cup, into a fancy pants WFA Sandown Classic. As usual, not a real WFA race, just handicappers playing dress ups. Do prefer to be on fresh horses in this race, and also a genuine WFA horse that sticks out from the rest. Pace here is going to be slow, leader can dictate - 10-EXTEND, with 8-FIRE IN THE NIGHT the only other one really putting any pressure on up front. Suspect both of these will look like they are going well around 200M from home, but expecting the 1-ZIPPING and 5-BAUGHURST to come running over the top of them. 1-ZIPPING does look a stand out bet to us, much classier than these on his best form, only genuine WFA horse in the field. 5-BAUGHURST the value runner on weights. Actually happy to have a bet on the favourite, and don’t usually like short priced favourites, but happy to take upwards of $2.70 about 1-ZIPPING, who dare we say it, looks close to a good thing. One to risk: 11-TRICK OF LIGHT Roughie: 5-BAUGHURST 3rd W=$17.70 RESULTS : Sum up this race perfectly (almost), with the leader slowing them up, but the class WFA horse proving far too good under these conditions. Really think ZIPPING is a class act, and is capable of winning a major WFA race if he is set for it, instead of a Cup campaign. Roughie 5-BAUGHURST runs into the money