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SANDOWN : SANDOWN CLASSIC - 15th November 2008

Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($100): Some storms and showers off a hot and balmy week in Melbourne, so have finally got some decent rain. Track currently a DEAD (5), but might even get to slow with a few more showers lingering. They race at Sandown pretty much ever other day the rest of the year (which does get a little dull), so spring is the only time this track gets to have a break. Despite being a big course, with long straight and uphill run home suiting strong finishers, there is often a pattern favouring on pacers on this day. Watch the early races, but be prepared to get on those drawn well, racing close to the rails and on pace which is likely to be the best ground. Often a good idea to watch out for fresh horses on the way through today, rather than those who have had long hard spring campaigns and are coming to the end of their preparation. Smallish fields most of the day, and you might find there is not much pace in some of these races either. Dividends are probably going to be pretty skinny with 2-3 standout picks in every race, so maybe best betting strategy is to take some doubles with the main chances. Let’s spend $100 and try and find some value with doubles and quinellas. Apparently SANDOWN is now BETFAIR PARK ! RESULTS : Important to note here - meeting was held at SANDOWN HILLSIDE, whereas nomally this meeting is held at the Lakeside course. Track races very fairly, probably actually favours those running on, as it is an extremely long straight and you are in trouble if you find the lead too early. Think Lakeside course still favours on pacers when they race this meeting there. As warned - lots of favourites, lots of skinny dividends - though most do start better with the bookmakers. We manage to find 5 winners on top, and the other 3 winners were the 2nd selection. BEST BET : Race 7: 1-ZIPPING 1st W=$2.00 QUINELLA : Race 7: 1-ZIPPING, 9-REGGIE x $10 RUNNING DOUBLE : Race 7, 8 : 1-ZIPPING / 6-CHASM, 10-ORBIT EXPRESS, 7-O’REILLYS CLOCK x $10 = $30 R/D = $4.30 = $43 1st ZIPPING W=$2.00 / 1st 6-CHASM W=$2.80, 3rd 10-ORBIT EXPRESS W=$8.40 Won this race last year, genuine class WFA horse and extremely well suited under this weight scale against a group of handicap stayers. Forget Melbourne Cup run when was clear last on home turn and made excellent ground hard against rails to go past half the field. Probably does start short though, so to try and find some value let’s take the quinella with the value runner in that race - 9-REGGIE who loves it wet, and take a running double into the next leg where 6-CHASM is the boom horse on the way up, but the other two have genuine chances and might provide some value. RESULTS : 1-ZIPPING pulls out an astounding win - did you hear the murmur go around the TAB ? Two Sandown Classics, 2nd in a Cox Plate, 4th in two Melbourne Cups, a MV Cup - is he the best horse in Australia past a mile? Not much in the way of value, and the boom horse wins the next so don't get much in the way of a return. Much better returns with the bookies though. BEST BET : Race 9: 5-ABSOLUTELYFABULOUS $25 WIN 2nd W=$2.70 Has been racing extremely well this spring and due for a win. Drops in class from a great effort in a Group 1, looks extremely well weighted against these based on that run, and as long as they are running on OK looks the one to beat. RESULTS : Probably raced far too far forward and looked to be struggling half way down the straight, but stuck on pretty well. Did start rather short though as well. BEST EACH WAY : Race 3: 10-GRAN SASSO $10 EW 1st W=$3.60, P=$1.60 = 10 x 5.2 = $52 QUINELLA : Race 3: 10-GRAN SASSO, 12-WOODWIN x $10 SCR $10 Ultra consistent one who was quite unlucky last start, was jammed against rails down the straight, had to ease back around the field and was coming hard on the line. Not much speed here and should be able to go forward and will almost certainly be in the finish again. To try and get some value take the quinella with the (12) as well, who is racing well, and looks the only leader in the race, so expect these two to fight the race out on pace. RESUlTS : Gets there - just ! Just hung on after looking home for sure. Starts fairly short - $4.60 available on course with the bookies TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. FLEXI TRIFECTA : Race 9 : 5 / 3,6,14 / 1,3,6,7,14,15 x $5 = 33.33% 2nd 5-ABSOLUTELYFABULOUS W=$2.70 / 1st 3-BERNICA W=$5.70 / - Last race of the day may be one of the few where there is any value with the largest field of the day. Take a try with the favourite to win, and plenty of place chances for third. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $105 NET : $+5

The Tips: Race 1: NO BET. EARLY 2YOS Race 2: 6-INSTRUCTOR, 7-ACOSTA, 4-WE WONDER Race 3: 10-GRAN SASSO, 12-WOODWIN, 9-DEJA VIEW Race 4: 4-YESTERDAY, 7-MELPOMENE, 9-GALLOPING HILL Race 5: 5-GOTTA HAVE HEART, 2-CAPTIAN BAX, 3-COCINERO Race 6: 1-STOKEHOUSE, 3-CAYMANS, 5-LUCKY THUNDER Race 7: 1-ZIPPING, 9-REGGIE, 3-BAUGHURST Race 8: 6-CHASM, 10-ORBIT EXPRESS, 7-O’REILLYS CLOCK Race 9: 5-ABSOLUTELYFABULOUS, 3-BERNICA, 6-JACQUELINE ROUGE

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 6-INSTRUCTOR 1st W=$3.50 7-ACOSTA 4-WE WONDER

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 10-GRAN SASSO 1st W=$3.60 12-WOODWIN SCR 9-DEJA VIEW

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 4-YESTERDAY 1st W=$3.30 7-MELPOMENE 3rd W=$3.80 9-GALLOPING HILL

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 5-GOTTA HAVE HEART 2-CAPTIAN BAX 1st W=$3.40 3-COCINERO

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 1-STOKEHOUSE 3-CAYMANS 1st W=$3.00 5-LUCKY THUNDER 3rd W=$5.10

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 1-ZIPPING 1st W=$2.00 9-REGGIE 3-BAUGHURST

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 6-CHASM 1st W=$2.80 10-ORBIT EXPRESS 3rd W=$8.40 7-O’REILLYS CLOCK

RACE 9: RESULTS

Tips: 5-ABSOLUTELYFABULOUS 2nd W=$2.70 3-BERNICA 1st W=$5.70 6-JACQUELINE ROUGE Quinella : $7.50 Quadrealla : $140.00 *** WOO HOO ! ***

RACE 7: SANDOWN CLASSIC GROUP 2 WFA 2400M

Tips: 1-ZIPPING 1st W=$2.00 9-REGGIE 3-BAUGHURST

Others: 6 Pace: SLOW Leaders : 10-BOUNDLESS Handy : 2-DOURO VALLEY, 3-BAUGHURST, 4-RED LORD, 5-LIGHT VISION Back : 1-ZIPPING, 6-CAPECOVER, 7-RED RULER, 8-ROAD TO ROCK , 9-REGGIE Chances: 1-ZIPPING won this race last year when looked pretty much a good thing, coming off a 4th in the Melbourne Cup. The field this year is probably a little stronger, with quite a few in form horses having a crack at the spring left over platter. But his form this year is just as good – 2nd in the Cox Plate was excellent, when asked to make two runs, and 9th in the Melbourne Cup this year was much, much better than it seems. Jockey reported he got taken back by GALLOPIN who choked, so he was a clear few lengths last on the home turn and did run on pretty solidly along the rails to finish 9th. Trick to this race is that it is WFA – and there are few genuine WFA horses going around. He is genuine WFA, form is good, and as long as Melbourne Cup run hasn’t flattened him – which is unlikely as he barely got the chance to get warm, stands out as the one to beat again. One to beat. 1st W=$2.00 3-BAUGHURST has been absolutely flying this spring – yet to miss a place in 6 starts. Honest type, who can race on speed or dropping back, and a pleasure to have a bet on – cause you know he will have a decent crack at it. Ran 3rd in this race last year – when form wasn’t as good – and doesn’t the 20-1 just look plain silly ?. Ridden quietly on the rails here he is going to get a pretty good run and expect to see him thereabouts in the finish. Probably only just gets the 2500M, so the drop back in distance is a plus. Too honest to leave out and has to rate as a chance. 6-CAPECOVER has had a hard long spring, from NZ, to Adelaide, to Sydney, to Moe ! – but actually still seems to be on the improve. Eye catching run in the SAAB Quality where he was finishing strongly, meant he looked a great bet last week in the Queen Elizabeth – and duly saluted. Great ride that day – ridden cold at the back of the field and out stayed them. Does seems to be one on the up, despite the long preparation, and think he is a more genuine stayer than many going around here today. Question today though is the weight scale – WFA – last week he got 3.5 kgs from the (3) and the (5) for beating them 1.75L– today he meets them at equal weights. That’s a far weight turn around. But to be honest – think he is a better stayer than them and think he might still beat them home again regardless. Chance. 9-REGGIE is pretty well known as a wet track stayer, but her dry track form is OK as well. She is actually going along pretty well – Moe Cup win was impressive – and note that she did beat the (6) home that day, unlucky in Werribee Cup when went very wide and early around the home turn, and was making considerable ground last week at Flem in a leader dominated race. Genuine stayer, fit and in form, and think she definitely represents the value runner here. Form is much better than it looks. She can drop too far back in her races though. Little bit of rain would be a plus. Think she is a genuine chance here and worth a bet at each way odds. Chance Place: 2-DOURO VALLEY caused an upset when the jockey showed some initiative and took up the running in the Yalumba, then poor run in the Caulfield Cup does suggest something was amiss. Honest staying type, who is a Caulfield Cup place getter. Has had the 4 weeks off since the Caulfield Cup, they pulled the plug on the rest of the spring then and switched to this race – so not quite sure what the problem was ? Does need a genuine firm track to show best. Guess he has won at WFA at least, even if it was an upset. Plus with him is that he can take up the running and push forward, which might be a plus if the track favours on pacers and unlikely to be much speed in this race. Just a little concerned with the month off after a poor run so prefer place. 2nd W=$12.60 5-LIGHT VISION is another solid on pacer stayer who has done everything right this spring – placed 6/7 starts and going from strength to strength to challenge to challenge. He and his arch rival – the (3) – have been dream punting horses all spring – putting in every start, and there has been barely a breath between them last 2 starts. Last start the (3) was probably just about to nab this one on the line, back in Oct when they met the (3) got an inside run and went early and this fella only just grabbed him. They’ve had a fascinating battle all spring. Probably only just runs the 2500M, so the drop back to 2400M is a positive. Races on speed, so makes on luck, probably doesn’t go to lead here with the (10) in the field. It’s funny – despite beating home the (3) in both tries over this trip, felt both times he had been lucky to do so – and the (3) is probably just marginally better. Won’t be surprised to see him win, but probably preferring place chance. 8-ROAD TO ROCK just seems to be running into some form. Made good ground along rails at MV in Waterford Crystal, then run on Cup Day was actually pretty good when he was making solid ground without really being extended, and got dream run on rails last Sat to come through and win. Out to 2400M for the first time today, and didn’t carry much in the way of weight last start and up to WFA today. Form through last start has held up with Bendigo Cup winner during the week. Think he drops a long way back here – just watch out if they are running on or not ? . He does seem very one paced – can see him dropping out and running on when this is all over. Prefer place. 4th W=$31.10 Sacking: 4-RED LORD is a very difficult one to catch – we did give a push for him in the Melbourne Cup at huge odds, where he did have every chance, taking a good position with cover a few behind the hectic speed, but didn’t finish it off. Runs before that in the MV Cup and the Coogny were encouraging, both times he dropped too far back and was finishing on solidly at the end of his race. Showed some decent form in Sydney at the start of this campaign, plus with this guy is that he has a better turn of foot than most stayers, so he can mix it with them over shorter distances. Ran 4th in this race last year coming off a win in the 2800M Flem staying race. Guess he wasn’t good enough to win this race last year, in a weaker field, with better form, so hard to see him doing it this year. Had a long hard preparation and ready to leave out today. 7-RED RULER has been put away and set for this race – rather than push on for a Melbourne Cup. Always good idea to watch out for fresh horses on the way through on this day. Didn’t do much in the Mackinnon, Caulfield Cup run was OK, he presented like he was going to run into the race, but just seemed to flounder towards the end. Suspect he might drop well back here – though they are putting on blinkers for the first time. Does represent the unknown quantity, so might produce something – but not overly convinced about how well he is going. Happy to risk. 3rd W=$6.80 10-BOUNDLESS is coming off a horror Melbourne Cup run when she got caught up in the need for speed battler between the international runners. Poor baby. Didn’t have the best of luck in the Caulfield Cup when didn’t go forward as normal and got bumped and knocked around the home turn. She looks the leader here and will probably get a soft lead too. Not sure what to do with her – always have to be wary of those coming through the Melbourne Cup as to how hard their run has been – and can’t imagine anyone having had a tougher Cup Day experience than her. But if the track favours on pacers she might do something ? Probably best to watch the market and see how much support she gets as the best guide – we are going to leave her out at the moment. Summary: Small field, but seems a much stronger race than last year – even though 3 of the runners are the same ! Trick to this race is that it is WFA, and very rare to get genuine WFA horses contesting it, and it’s at the end of the spring, so is worth watching out for fresher horses on the way through. Pace here is only going to be moderate - 10-BOUNDLESS should get to set the pace as she likes, with no nasty, annoying Irish pests getting in her way. Probably 5-LIGHT VISION sitting just off her, and 2-DOURO VALLEY the only other one likely to race forward – might make a mid race moved as it worked previously. Do keep an eye on how the track is racing coming into this, just in case the on pacers are favoured. Still think 1-ZIPPING sticks out in this bunch – last year’s winner, harder field, and he does drop back, but he won on a track that was favouring on pacers last year as well. Form this year is probably better – and barely got a chance to get warm in the Melbourne Cup. He is the only genuine WFA horse in the field, and even if it is a sit sprint race – he has the best finishing burst by a mile. Should win. Think 9-REGGIE appeals here as the value runner and danger, has been going along pretty well, and might be a lot fresher than these – probably wants some rain and for them to be running on. 3-BAUGHURST honest as always, ridden quietly on rails, and finally gets his chance to beat home the (5), and wouldn’t rule out 6-CAPECOVER on the rise, even with the weight turn around – just might concede these a big start. Happy to bet on the top pick and save on the value runner. One to risk: 7-RED RULER 3rd W=$6.80 Roughie: 9-REGGIE RESULTS : WOW - 1-ZIPPING is seriously impressive, looking beaten 200M out and finishing with a burst that left everyone pretty stunned. Still a vastly under rated horse, and has been consistently at the top now for several years. Definitely deserves a major to his name. 5-LIGHT VISION and 3-BAUGHURST finally end what has been a great spring for both of them - and LIGHT VISION managed to beat home his rival yet again !

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