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| SANDOWN : SANDOWN CLASSIC - 14th Nov 2009 |
| Track: DEAD(4)- Weather: STINKING HOT - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Stinking hot weather in Melbourne this week and you would think this track would dry out pretty quickly on Saturday, as has happened at pretty much every meeting so far this spring. Sandown has had a pretty solid break though, whilst the party is on during Spring Sandown gets the top notch role of quarantine facility for all the pox ridden horses to peer out sadly at the fun and party games going on elsewhere. Important to note that they are racing at the Sandown HILLSIDE course this year. Last year on this day the track strongly favoured those running on, and it can be hard if you hit the lead too early at Sandown to stick on – often get swamped in the last 100M. Definitely DO NOT got the early crow. So every horse should have their chance, but maybe just look for those that get back and finish on. Other trick to this meeting is to go for fresh horses on the way up, so many of these are past their best over spring and have their bags packed for a nice holiday after today’s run. Sandown Classic Day is normally a pretty good betting day, smallish fields and you can bet confidently on stand out selections around the $3 mark. Probably need to shop for value though through bookmakers or BETFAIR as going to be short priced clear cut favourites in most races – but most of them should win. Betting Portfolio is $8 down over the whole spring so we want to try and finish in the black this year. No point playing it conservative, let’s lay out $100 and there are some solid bets on this program. RESULTS : Sandown Classic day has turned into a favourites day the last couple of years and most of the horses in the market win. Sandwon HILLSIDE track again and inside going appears to be off, most winners settle midfield or worse. BEST BET : Race 7: 3-SCENIC SHOT $20 WIN QUINELLA : Race 7: 3-SCENIC SHOT, 1-MASTER O'REILLY x $5 3rd 1-MASTER O'REILLY W=$6.80 QUINELLA : Race 7: 3-SCENIC SHOT, 2-ZIPPING x $5 1st 2-ZIPPING W=$4.50 Nice win by this one last start, against most of these, same weight conditions. Small field, no speed and he sits on pace so his main rivals will be giving him a start. Little wary of the runners on with the long Sandown straight, so back it straight out and have some saver quinellas with the other proven WFA horses and hopefully we collect twice anyway. RESULTS : 2-ZIPPING does it again and inspried ride from the jockey who takes off early and solid staying performance down the long Sandown straight. Absolutely appalling ride on the favourite 3-SCENIC SHOT who in a small field with no speed for some reason is at the back of the field as they straighten, giving the winner a 3-4L head start (should've been the other way around), and making runs on the worse going on the inside. BEST EACH WAY : Race 3: 4-SNIP ESPRIT $15 EW X Was finishing with a rush down the straight during Cup week. Strong finishing type over from WA who will be suited by long run home here and most of these have no form at all. Looks a nice bet at around $7 at the moment on TAB Fixed odds. RESULTS : Very disappointing BEST EACH WAY : Race 9: 6-ROSE SYRAH, $10 EW 2nd W=$4.80, P=$2.00 = 10 x 2 = $20 QUINELLA : Race 9: 6-ROSE SYRAH, 9-PINK SHIMMER x $2 2nd 6-ROSE SYRAH W=$4.80 QUINELLA : Race 9: 6-ROSE SYRAH, 11-DANEHILL SMILE x $2 2nd 6-ROSE SYRAH W=$4.80 QUINELLA : Race 9: 6-ROSE SYRAH, 14-HIDDEN ENERGY x $2 2nd 6-ROSE SYRAH W=$4.80 Last race of the day is one of the few races where there is any value. Very even field, but this one looks to be one on the way up, has been there abouts in pretty much every run. Should be at peak now with the 3 runs in and was finishing on very strongly last start. Take some quinellas with value runners as quinella should pay OK in big even field. RESULTS : 6-ROSE SYRAH settles well back, runs on well, but finds one one better - which unfortunately isn't one we have in the quinellas. BEST ROUGH : Race 6: 2-TURF EXPRESS $4.50 EW 3rd W=$8.80, P=$2.20 = 2.20 x 4.5 = $9.90 Liking the value odds on offer about this one, did win last race on protest and everyone has written if off, but would’ve won anyway in another couple of strides. Coming back in distance to the Sandown 1600M probable suits and can sit on speed in a small field. Might give the favourite a scare. RESULTS : Honest run, finds the winner too good. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 5 : 1-LUCKY SECRET around $1.80 1st W=$2.00 Pretty keen to take this on, and probably the shorted priced favourite of the day. Honest jump and run sprinter who you can back with confidence – and lay with confidence. Probably gets a soft lead here and will look a clear winner about 200M out, but has looked home and stopped quickly a few times before. His best form is normally fresh, and is coming to the end of his preparation this time in. Has jarred up on firm tracks before? But only just gets 1200M – and that’s it – long uphill run of Sandown 1300M you would think would bring him unstuck. Just wish there was some more form in the rest of the field though ! – something needs to be good enough to beat him. RESULTS : We probably weren't the only ones ready to take him on. Jockey cuddles him down the straight and he dictates the race - great ride - bad lay. Pretty sure though a little bit of pressure up front or a little more depth in a pretty big field and he comes undone over the 1300M. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. RUNNING DOUBLE : Race 3: 4-SNIP ESPRIT / Race 4: 2-EUROPA POINT x $5 - / 2nd 2-EUROPA POINT W=$2.40 Pretty keen on the 2-EUROPA POINT in Race 4, only the 4 starts and seems to be one on the way up. Just going to start pretty short, so let’s try to find some value by taking running double instead. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $29.90 NET : $-70.10 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 3-TINTERN, 5-TESTALUX, 6-DASHATIN Race 2: EARLY 2YO. SLIP, SLOP, SLAP Race 3: 4-SNIP ESPRIT, 6-GREAT WALL OF CHINA, 9-SPIRITED HALO Race 4: 2-EUROPA POINT, 1-MARQAURDT, 4-HUSSKILA Race 5: 7-NEWS ALERT, 5-POSADAS, 4-FALIASE Race 6: 2-TURF EXPRESS, 1-KIDNAPPED, 7-ABSOLUTE SODA Race 7: 3-SCENIC SHOT, 1-MASTER O'REILLY, 2-ZIPPING Race 8: 8-SOUND OF NATURE, 4-AHDASHIM, 7-NINE TALES Race 9: 6-ROSE SYRAH, 9-PINK SHIMMER, 11-DANEHILL SMILE |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-TINTERN 1st W=$1.40 *** woo hoo *** 5-TESTALUX 6-DASHATIN |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-SNIP ESPRIT 6-GREAT WALL OF CHINA 1st W=$11.20 *** nice value winner *** 9-SPIRITED HALO 2nd W=$5.90 Quinella : $17.90 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-EUROPA POINT 2nd W=$2.40 1-MARQAURDT 1st W=$2.80 4-HUSSKILA Quinella : $2.70 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-NEWS ALERT 5-POSADAS 2nd W=$11.30 4-FALIASE |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-TURF EXPRESS 3rd W=$8.80 1-KIDNAPPED 1st W=$1.80 *** woo hoo *** 7-ABSOLUTE SODA |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-SCENIC SHOT 1-MASTER O'REILLY 3rd W=$6.80 2-ZIPPING 1st W=$4.50 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SOUND OF NATURE 4-AHDASHIM 7-NINE TALES 1st W=$6.20 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-ROSE SYRAH 2nd W=$4.80 9-PINK SHIMMER 11-DANEHILL SMILE |
| RACE 7: SANDOWN CLASSIC 2400M GROUP 2 WFA |
| Tips: 3-SCENIC SHOT 1-MASTER O'REILLY 3rd W=$6.80 2-ZIPPING 1st W=$4.50 |
| Others: - Pace: NONE Leaders : Handy : 3-SCENIC SHOT, 7-ZARITA, 9-PURPLE, 10-MISS DARCEY Back : 1-MASTER O'REILLY, 2-ZIPPING, 4-C'EST LA GUERRE, 5-ICE CHARIOT, 6-RAFFAELLO, 8-MISS MAREN Chances: 1-MASTER O'REILLY has been teasing us all spring, running on for “good up trials” to finish 3rd and 4th and comes to Cup Day – and guess what – he runs 4th. Pretty consistent run on stayer WFA horse these days and he is probably better suited under the WFA scale against this lot. He is pretty consistent, drops back, always runs on, just hasn’t won a race now since Caulfield Cup in Oct 2007 – that’s 18 starts. Firm track suits as does the big long straight here. Stayed well clear of him all spring – he just isn’t good enough for the Melbourne Cup, but think this race looks his cup of tea. Main issue is trying to get enough speed in the big field, but think he is a solid chance in this and might finally win one again. Track normally favours runners on and he has ran on very well in Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup. Chance. 3rd W=$6.80 2-ZIPPING is going for 3 in a row here, and we have tipped him last two years. Consistent type, probably under rated, has been around forever, MV Cup, Melbourne Cup fourths, Cox Plate placings, shame he has not won one of the majors. Pulled out a astronomical run to win in this race last year, absolutely flew home. His last two wins have come off tough Melbourne Cup runs, so he probably will have a bit more in reserve this year. Looked well and truly beaten on the home turn in Cox Plate, but somehow managed to stick on for 3rd. He hadn’t quite shown as much form this time in as previous years before Mackinnon scratching at barrier. He got cast under the gates that day, was there for a while, just a bit of a worry as you don’t quite now how much it will affect them. He actually raced handy in the Cox Plate, and just wondering if in a small field if they don’t try that again here – he can race handy if required, just normally held up for brilliant finishing bursts. Have to say think this field looks slightly harder than previous years. Obviously hard to beat, just a little wary of the barrier incident on Derby Day and how good his form is this time in – he was battling on the home turn in the Cox Plate. Chance. 1st W=$4.50 3-SCENIC SHOT is a pretty consistent on pace WFAer who is going to be suited in a small field against the more B grade horses. Dropped them quickly and kicked home in the Mackinnon – and for some reason he seems to have a real liking for the Flem 2000M – Mackinnon win and two Turnbull placings now over that track and distance. Run in Cox Plate was better than it looked – he was the first to go for home and he went five wide and early and stuck on OK. Does seems best on top of the ground despite good wet track wins in QLD. Twice winner over the 2400M so distance shouldn’t be a problem. He is going to get the run of the race here, most of his rivals are drop back horses, so he is going to sit handy and kick early in the straight and make his own luck – up to them to run him down. Big plus is he beat most of these last start, clearly, and under the same weight conditions. Guaranteed to be in the finish. One to beat.4th W=$3.10 10-MISS DARCEY has been going along OK and only the 4 runs this time in so still something to give here. Was stepping up in distance 1st and 2nd up, really liked the 3rd up run when come out and loomed and ran on very well – was a solid run stepping up in distance. Then jockey gave her no hope at all in the MV Cup, was 3 wide, went forward early and stopped very quickly after tough run. Definitely forgive that run – although form from that race hasn’t really held up. Of course she is WFA here against the boys, but small field she can race handy and did like that Flem run. Think she is the best roughie in this by far. Rough chance. Place: 8-MISS MAREN put in a slashing run in the Mackinnon and might have something left to give this spring. Put together a purple patch of wins last preparation and probably hasn’t quite gone on with it this time in – as yet. Sold win 1st up, wasn’t far off slogging finish 2nd up, wide 3rd up, poked through OK on rails in NZ and then came out and solid run last week at Flem. 2400M form does read 0-0-0 which is a bit of a worry, but she wasn’t in the market most of those runs. She has ran a place under this weight scale and against pretty similar horses last start so has to go in here. Maybe just prefer place though – end of a uphill Sandown 2400M might find her out? Place. Sacking: 4-C'EST LA GUERRE is a dead set sucker and couldn’t believe there were people still pushing for him in the Melbourne Cup. Only placing in last 12 Australian starts was in last year’s Melbourne Cup when yes he did run on very well from well back, but maybe he appreciated the furious tempo there and was just ridden quietly at the back of the field. Has loomed quite a few times, but never seriously contests the finish. Pretty much flagged as a wet tracker so would humbly suggest maybe he heads down to Tassie next winter might be more his go. No way. 5-ICE CHARIOT is a fresh horse on the scene, but doesn’t have much form this time in. Was eased down in straight last start when jockey thought something was wrong, but vets reported all clear. Was struggling for form before that, but probably improves over distance with a few runs in and on firm ground. Can’t seriously back something that was pulled up last start though, and would need to be right on best form to be a factor against these. No 6-RAFFAELLO seems to be a different hose with his new stable and has been showing a fair bit of potential. Slashing win 1st up storming down outside and cruising past the field, got too far back 2nd up when they went slow in front, and made a little ground 3rd and 4th up. Nice win last Sat at Flem, but honestly that was a pretty small and a very weak field. 1st try at 2400M and don’t think he is quite up to these at WFA despite the stable going amazingly well. Happy to risk him. 7-ZARITA is a tough, consistent on pace mare who hadn’t managed to win one for while till she was dropped back to mares grade. And that seems to be the key, she has been contesting the top notch open class WFA races for a while and whilst been thereabouts, not really figuring. Dropped back to mares grade at MV she pulled out an incredibly gutsy win, bollocking through the field and diving on the line. Ran on OK last start at Flem when suited by the very fast tempo. Small field she probably sit handy and she can stay the trip. But she tends to struggle against the boys, and she can feel hard tracks so watch out for how firm this track gets. Passing on her today. 9-PURPLE is a tough staying mare with a bit of upside who is still pretty fresh for this and has been set for this race. Should have plenty of improvement to come with only the 3 runs in. Was quite unlucky 2nd up at Caulfield when lost position in running, dropped back to last and came home strongly – but just a little too late. She won in tough 3 way go last start, and all you can do is win, but to be honest thought she was a little disappointing – and fairly sure the trainer said the same thing. Just her being the staying mare, with a sit on them thought she should’ve put paid to them pretty easily. She didn’t. She proved herself on firm ground that day – was always a query she might be best on a wet track, but still think she is slightly suspect if she strikes very firm ground on a hot day like today. She can race handy and might even be the leader here in a small field. Against open class, at WFA, on a firm track on a hot day coming off a unconvincing win quite happy to take her on today. Risking. 2nd W=$5.70 Summary: This is normally a pretty good betting race and doesn’t seem to be that many chances. Remember this race is at WFA – so stick to those runners that are proven at WFA. Small field here, no speed at all and tactics are going to be important. Not sure what is going to lead - 3-SCENIC SHOT, 9-PURPLE, look the most likely, 10-MISS DARCEY sitting just behind them. However, as this track often favours runners on you would think those at the back of the field will have their chance to run over them. Pretty keen to stick to the 3 proven WFA horses here - 1-MASTER O'REILLY, 3-SCENIC SHOT, 2-ZIPPING. 3-SCENIC SHOT kicked on them nicely last start and will be up racing on speed and give his main rivals something to chase – beat these home under these conditions last start and likely to do it again. Actually happy to have a ping at 1-MASTER O'REILLY today, despite not having won a race for 2 years, he looks very well suited in this today. Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup runs were excellent and he is going to appreciate the small field and long run home here. 2-ZIPPING going for 3 in a row, just gone a little cold on him after barrier mishap and just can’t be quite sure how well he is going this spring. Keen to bet and just about looks a stand out trifecta, not that it will pay anything. One to risk: 9-PURPLE 2nd W=$5.70 Roughie: 10-MISS DARCEY The Key: WFA race so pick WFA horses. RESULTS : 2-ZIPPING makes it three wins in a row, really under rated horse. Great ride from jockey too who went early and he just stays and toughs it out. Appalling ride from jockey on 3-SCENIC SHOT who should've been up on the speed in a small field. 1-MASTER O'REILLY runs a place as usual. 9-PURPLE on pace probably unlucky not to pinch the race, she has had a soft spring and might turn into a pretty genuine open class stayer next year. |
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