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- Deposit $50 = $100 Free Bet |
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| SANDOWN : SANDOWN CLASSIC - 13th Nov 2010 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Note that this meeting is being held on the Sandown HILLSIDE course. Finally Sandown gets a look in. Just when everyone is packing their bags and heading home too. They have attempted to re-format this meeting this year – and they have done a pretty good job too, adding in the new Sandown Cup (which was the race that become the Sandown Classic, so they should really call it the New Sandown Cup, or Not Quite the Sandown Cup or the Race Formerly Known As The Sandown Cup, or something like that), and moving the Eclipse Stakes back to this meeting. Pretty strong fields, and lots of fit, in form runners going around makes for some fairly wide open races. They normally race at Sandown week in , week out (yawn) . Have to admit we find the Sandown mid weekers extremely dull and vigorously avoid them. But spring racing is the only time of year that Sandown gets a solid break. Poor ol’ Sandown gets to miss out on all the glitz and glamour and international celebrities. It is always vital to take note of which of the Sandown courses they are using for this meeting. Often if it is the Sandown Lakeside course coming off a solid break it can be a strong leaders track. Sandown Hillside generally favours those running on, and this meeting has strongly favoured those running on late for the last 2 years. It’s a long, long straight so you really don’t want your horse to hit the front too soon. Once again it’s been lovely sunny weather mid week in Melbourne – with an extreme rain event heading our way for the weekend. Which makes it very difficult to do the form – no idea how much rain is going to come along. We will do the form for a genuine dead tending to worse side of dead, but could end up far worse and good chance the meeting gets torn apart by scratchings on a wet track. We are showing a profit of close to $500 this season in the suggested bets. Not sure there are any big collects lurking this week, but there are a couple of solid each way bets. RESULTS : The rain comes, and it keeps raining all day, the track gets worse and worse and the winners come wider and wider. Slow start to the day for the tips, but we finish off OK. This revamped meeting is looking pretty good for future years. And how good is ZIPPING ? BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 2-TERRITORY $10 EW 4th W=$7.10 Gotta love the punting game. Last week we made this Lay of the Day – this week we want to back him. He gave us quite a fright last week, kicking clear about 100M from home and looking the winner before getting swamped on the line. All the focus has gone on the fast finishing one on the up, the (3), but this one looks extremely well in today. Last start he pushed forward, there was a lot of pressure up front, he had a whopping 59kgs and he was still looking the winner 50M out. Weight differences can get over emphasised, but he is meeting two of his main rivals the (3) and the (7) a rather substantial 5kgs or so better off. And he had an extremely tough run. Smallish field, not much speed, he can box seat here and he is going to put himself into the finish. One of the fast finishers might run over the top of him over the Sandown 1600M, but looks likely to be in the finish regardless and a solid each way bet. RESULTS : Runs as predicted, he box seats, and kicks 3 lengths clear about 200M to go and looks the winner. Then stops badly going towards the line to miss a place ! Darn it. Don't think he handles wet tracks and he looks suspect at the 1600M based on the collapse on the line. BEST WIN : Race 4: 2-ROYAL IDA, 7-PERTURBO x $5 3rd 2-ROYAL IDA W=$10.20 QUINELLA : 2-ROYAL IDA - 7-PERTURBO x $5 X QUINELLA : 2-ROYAL IDA - 11-DUBLEANNY x $5 3rd 2-ROYAL IDA W=$10.20, 2nd 11-DUBLEANNY W=$4.00 But of a funny race with the WFA weight scale, possibility of a wet track and a lot of sprinters having a crack at the Sandown 1300M. On that basis the 2-ROYAL IDA appeals, he is the one who normally has to lump big weights in the handicaps so is going to be suited on the level weight WFA scale. Went OK down the straight 1st up, and is 4 wins for 4 starts over the 1300M. The value runners seems to be the 7-PERTURBO who is racing very well, handles it wet, strong finisher who you would think is going to love the Sandown 1300M. Have a win bet on both of them and take value quinellas with the (2) who is just about always in the finish. BEST ROUGH : Race 5: 13-GOLAGO $2.50 EW X This one is actually the second outsider of this field, but think he is worth having a little something each way on, and he might run a lot better than people expect. Likely to be a fair bit of speed in this race, 1500M, and a lot of these horses are best over 1400M and might falter coming to the end of a Sandown 1500M. Always like to get on the fresh horses coming through at this meeting. Has a good Sandown Hillside record, handles it wet, and still lightly raced and has been in the finish most starts. Worth some loose change. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4 : 10-AVENUE at around $3.50 1st W=$3.60 Consistent speedy front running sprinter who flopped down the straight last start. Jockey said she didn’t handle the straight, but also quite likely she is not at her best on wet ground – and we may end up with a wet track here again today. She is going past 1200M for the 1st time here, and think that has to be a query. Likely to get the lead here without too much pressure, but the long Sandown straight is unlikely to bring her undone and this meeting normally favours those running on. Expect her to kick, but something to run over the top of her. RESULTS : Oops ! 10-AVENUE kicks to the lead in a small field, and even though she is fading on the line she hangs on. Turns out we muffed the Lay of the Day in this race last year as well with a similar front runner. Remember not to listen next year ! TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 7: TRIFECTA :1-ZIPPING / 8-EXCEPTIONALLY / 2,3,6(scr) x $5 = 250% = 1st 1-ZIPPING W=$1.90 / 2nd 8-EXCEPTIONALLY W=$8.90 / 3rd 3-MANIGHAR W=$4.30 TRIFECTA = $33.80 = 33.80 x 2.5 = $84.50 Might as well go for a solid collect in the main race where the favourite is going to start short, but just about looks a good thing. We think the value runner here is the (8) who might run on home OK, so load up on the straight trifecta, (1) to win, (8) for second and a few runners for 3rd and should still pay OK with the value 2nd place getter. RESULTS : Can't believe this dividend ! The rain comes, more horses are scratched, the field gets smaller - and 1-ZIPPING continues to drift ! Nuts. In a 5 horse field the trifecta pays fantastic and puts us into the black for this week. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $84.50 NET : $+34.50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. ENJOY THE SANDOWN ROSES ? Race 2: 1-PALOMARES, 14-POTIONS, 5-BOOKLET Race 3: 2-CAPECOVER, 7-MACEDONIAN, 5-PERSIAN STAR Race 4: 2-ROYAL IDA, 7-PERTURBO, 11-DUBLEANNY Race 5: 11-AMAETHON, 6-DEMERIT, 13-GOLAGO Race 6: 2-TERRITORY, 7-YORKSHIRE LAD, 3-BIGELOW Race 7: 1-ZIPPING, 8-EXCEPTIONALLY, 2-GINGA DUDE Race 8: 10-NIBLICK, 14-WORK THE ROOM, 9-INFLUENTIAL MISS Race 9: 2-HAPPY HIPPY, 9-ALOHA, 12-SHANNARA |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-PALOMARES 2nd W=$1.60 14-POTIONS SCR 5-BOOKLET 3rd W=$17.90 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-CAPECOVER 7-MACEDONIAN 1st W=$3.70 5-PERSIAN STAR SCR |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-ROYAL IDA 3rd W=$10.20 7-PERTURBO 11-DUBLEANNY 2nd W=$4.00 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-AMAETHON 6-DEMERIT 2nd W=$3.20 13-GOLAGO |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-TERRITORY 7-YORKSHIRE LAD 3-BIGELOW 3rd W=$5.20 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-ZIPPING 1st W=$1.90 8-EXCEPTIONALLY 2nd W=$8.90 2-GINGA DUDE Quinella : $7.00 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-NIBLICK 3rd W=$2.90 14-WORK THE ROOM SCR 9-INFLUENTIAL MISS |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-HAPPY HIPPY 1st W=$8.90 *** nice way to finish spring *** 9-ALOHA SCR 12-SHANNARA |
| RACE 7: SANDOWN CLASSIC 2400M GROUP 2 WFA |
| Tips: 1-ZIPPING 1st W=$1.90 8-EXCEPTIONALLY 2nd W=$8.90 2-GINGA DUDE Quinella : $7.00 |
| Others: 6, 3 Pace: LEADER DICTATES Leaders : 2-GINGA DUDE Handy : 1-ZIPPING, 4-RAINBOW STYLING, 5-LA ROCKET Back : 3-MANIGHAR (FR), 6-KIDNAPPED, 7-FAINT PERFUME, 8-EXCEPTIONALLY Chances: 1-ZIPPING is striving for legendary FOURTH consecutive Sandown Classic. If they don’t name a hot dog stand after him this time around they never will. Grand campaigner, whose resume is ultra impressive. 3 x Sandown Classics, placed in 3 Cox Plates, won an Australian Cup, a MV Cup, a Turnbull, placed in a Mackinnon. Contested 4 Melbourne Cups for a 4th / 4th / 9th / 4th – he was a dead set sure thing anchor for 4th place in your Melbourne Cup First Fours this year and did not disappoint. His form this time in has actually been better than recent years, he placed in all the same races, but he wasn’t good enough to win the Turnbull on the way though previously. Melbourne Cup run was huge, he has come from well back and pretty much gone past the whole field. Genuine WFA horse and rarely comes up against WFA horses in this race. Might be a slight query on a slow track if the rain comes – then again he has put in a huge run on a slow track in the Melbourne Cup and the 3200M really isn’t his go. This race last year the pace was slow and the jockey was clever enough to go early and he just got the on pacer. In 2008 he looked clearly beaten but came with a amazing flying burst over the last 200M to just get up. In 2007 he has sat handy and won decisively. The margin the last 2 years was actually pretty narrow, so he is lucky to be going for the four peat. He is a genuine WFA horse, in form, in form against much better opposition, meeting a seriously sub standard field, on level weights. Just about looks a good thing. One to beat. 1st W=$1.90 2-GINGA DUDE has been going along very nicely and the NZ form is very strong this year. The first three home from the Spring Classic in Hastings, this one, WALL STREET and KEEP THE PEACE have all collected in the Melbourne Spring. Plus with this one is that he can race handy, and in a small field with not much speed he can probably turn this into a tactical race. He is flying – he slaughtered some handy horses when he jumped and led and won full of running in the Coogny. Then stuck on very well in the Mackinnon. Jockey jumped off and said what a shame it was that he wasn’t in the Cups. Big plus is that he loves wet ground, he is good in all ground, but if the drenching rain comes and this track is seriously rain affected his chances go up substantially. Query is this is his 1st try at the 2400M – he will lead and the long Sandown straight will leave him very exposed to those finishing on strongly. Obviously an in form chance, but just wonder if he is going to get run over by the swoopers. Chance. 4th W=$3.50 6-KIDNAPPED is fitter for the 3 runs in and is coming into the race with a bit more upside than most of this field who are at the end of their preparations. Ran on very well in the Toorak Handicap – then again so did most of that field and it was a very bunched finish. Strong finishing type who is going to be suited at Sandown, and stable is going pretty well at the moment. Will run a solid 2400M and won the Sandown Guineas this day last year. Rough chance. SCR 8-EXCEPTIONALLY has been on a rapid improve this spring , but unfortunately hasn’t been able to nail a feature race. Was pretty unlucky not to win at Flem 3 starts back when came from last with a mighty finishing burst. Loomed and competitive in the Geelong Cup – and she has been beaten by AMERICAIN and MOUDRE that day so form is extremely strong. She probably just hit the front too early when ridden forward in a change of tactics in the Queens Cup. Sure they will ride her cold today, and the long straight is going to suit her finishing on late. Wet might be a query, but note most of her wet track runs have been early in her campaigns over unsuitable short distances. She is in form, will stay, is on the up and the track is likely to be favouring those runner on. Best rough chance and looks good value in this. Chance. 2nd W=$8.90 Place: 3-MANIGHAR (FR) is an OS visitor going for the left overs at the end of the spring. His two runs over here have been OK. Wasn’t far behind them in the Caulfield Cup, when he wanted to run around a bit and looked like he would really be improved by the run. Solid enough run in the Melbourne Cup too. Then again, the (1) has beaten him home by about 4L and meets him 1.5kgs better off. He is the unknown quantity here, solid staying type and you would think the long Sandown straight will suit. Looks the only one would could cause an upset, but still happy to stick with the favourite here. Rough. 3rd W=$4.30 Sacking: 4-RAINBOW STYLING has been going along really well this spring, but form just faltered a bit last two runs. Win in Naturalism and the JRA Cup placing were excellent – identical runs, he just box seats on speed and pokes his head through to run into the race at the right time. Probably didn’t handle the heavy track at Caulfield when he box seated again, but didn’t quite finish it off. Track still should have been firm enough in the Mackinnon, when he went OK, but easily beaten by the (2). Has placed over the 2400M before, but they were beaten by solid margins and you would suspect that is as far as he wants. Suspect long run home Sandown 2400M probably brings him undone, his form is starting to falter, he has been up a while so probably last run of his campaign. Not suited at WFA either. Unlikely. SCR 5-LA ROCKET hasn’t gone on with his excellent Melbourne Autumn form when he caused a boilover to win the St George Stakes. Really struggling for form this time in, though he has been set pretty tough asks in mainly Group 1 + 2 races. On pacer, who really prefers it hard and firm and plenty of rain coming. Out of form, yet to race past 200M, not suited at WFA. No 7-FAINT PERFUME has been the biggest flop of the spring, failing to go on from her ultra impressive 3YO form. She has really done absolutely nothing – and we have been lucky enough to steer well clear of her all spring so no way we are going to get sucked in today. Her Turnbull run was kinda OK, she ran on, but the winning pack ran away from her. She was deliberately keep wide and outside runners last start, and made a run around the whole field – obviously they are wary of her racing inside horses like she did in the Caulfield Cup when she over raced badly. Small field here will suit, and will be finishing on strongly. Pretty sure she is a dry tracker so wet will be a problem, and suspect she might just be a dry track miler, but that Bart guy probably knows better than us. She almost got into the finish last start – but it was a bunched finish. Sure to start appalling value on the tote – remember her form is 96099, but in a 8 horse field there is very chance she could finish in the first 8 today. No SCR Summary: This is normally a pretty good race to have a bet. It’s at WFA, usually with very few genuine WFA horses in it, so it’s no wonder that old timer 1-ZIPPING has managed to win this race 3 years in a row. Everyone is going to be barracking for him, it’s great to see horses going around year after year and his record is incredible. Just think – all it would take would be one nasty accident with a large pair of scissors and we could see SO YOU THINK going around for his 7th consecutive Cox Plate at 9 years of age (we accept no responsibility should anyone act on this idea…) Small field, obviously tactics are going to be a key, and it has taken two superb rides to get the 1-ZIPPING home the last two years. But you would think Sandown Hillside is going to strongly favour those running on and he should have every chance. Only problem might be if we get a large amount of rain and the track turns towards on pacers. Obvious leader is 2-GINGA DUDE who can dictate the speed here, with 4-RAINBOW STYLING, 5-LA ROCKET sitting handy and 1-ZIPPING probably back in the field. Likely he will want to get out early on the favourite and put him into clear running from an inside barrier. He just looks too good – genuine WFA form in top class races, racing today at WFA, against non WFA and mainly out of form horses. Been the same pattern for the last couple of years. Silly us picked up the paper and saw someone has flagged it as a $2.40 chance. If only we could get the odds they publish in the paper in the mornings ! If only. We are pretty much anti getting on short priced favourites most of the time, RED COLOSSUS last week was a prime example – you don’t want to go taking short odds unless it’s a horse in winning form, against opposition that he has met and beaten before, under similar weights and conditions. 1-ZIPPING today is a example of a shortie you would probably back, proven distance, track, proven at top level, at equal weights against mediocre opposition. Simply looks the winner. Value might come if the on pacers stop and the runners on get into the finish, so think the quinella with 8-EXCEPTIONALLY is probably the way to go and should represent value. 2-GINGA DUDE the main danger on form, and should dictate speed, but just wonder if he is going to falter over the Sandown 2400M. Go 1-ZIPPING ! One to risk: 7-FAINT PERFUME SCR Roughie: 8-EXCEPTIONALLY 2nd W=$8.90 The Key: ZIPPING RESULTS : How good is dear ol' 1-ZIPPING. For the fourth year in a row he has looked a good thing in this race - and each time he has delivered. Utter pleasure betting on you Mr ZIPPING. Amazingly the more rain that comes, and the smaller the field gets, the longer his odds get - you could get $2.16 on Betfair before the jump which is sensational odds. Really looked a good thing. Even better we nailed the value quinella which leads to a trifecta that paid way overs at $33. Very promising effort by 8-EXCEPTIONALLY who goes early, looks beaten at the 200M, but comes back for 2nd. Think she has some upside and follow her next campaign. Funny tactic in a small field with 2-GINGA DUDE not to go to the lead - suggests to us they thought he was suspect at the 2400M and he raced liked that - he was a clear 2nd 100M out but died badly on his run. |
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