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| SANDOWN: SANDOWN CLASSIC - 12th Nov 2011 |
| Track: SLOW(6) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Major rain event during the week in Melbourne and the sun rarely shines at Sandown as it is. The south eastern suburbs coped the worse of it too. Fine weather heading into the weekend, but Sandown doesn’t seem to upgrade as quickly as the other Melbourne tracks, probably because it gets used the most for racing. Although spring time action is the only time of the year that Sandown does get a decent break. They are racing Sandown Hillside and that is important. Sandown Lakeside often tends to favour on pacers. Sandown Hillside definitely favours those running on late down the middle of the track and it is very difficult to lead and win over this course. So this track should be on the improve, but still suspect it will be a genuine slow track and you should look for genuine soft ground horses. They should be winning running on late too. Often it is worthwhile watching out for fresh horses on the scene today, as many will be having their last run for the spring and just having one last crack before going out – and may be past their best. Off to the revamped Sandown / Zipping Classic Day. Working a treat really. Five runners in the feature race. Never realised the entry conditions stipulated that only horses with one word names of 8 or 9 letters were allowed to run ? The new Sandown Cup basically a MV 3000M night meeting field. And did kinda like having the Eclipse Stakes to look forward too even after spring had officially finished. We are $133 down in the Betting Portfolio coming into the last week so would take a minor miracle to get back into the black. BEST EACH WAY : Race 2: 7-SHOPAHOLIC $10 WIN QUINELLA : Race 2 : 7-SHOPAHOLIC - 1-COMBAT KITTY x $4 QUINELLA : Race 2 : 7-SHOPAHOLIC # 3,8,9,11,12 x $1 = $5 Quite liked the run of this one on Oaks Day up the straight. Coming hard, chasing hard, off a 6 week break so you would think there is a fair bit of improvement to come. Might be a little more upside to this one than most of these who are probably at the end of their spring preparations. Good winner here 2 starts back and should be coming home hard. Take a large saver quinella with the favourite and main danger the (1) and let’s throw a speculative quinella on with some of the maiden winners in case they step up. Pretty confident this one is going to be in the finish though. BET EACH WAY : Race 9: 9-MAYNEDA STRATEGY $5EW Extremely under rated type who has an outstanding Sandown Hillside record – 4 starts, 1 win , 3 placings. Fitter for the 2 runs in and again a case of being a fresh horse on the scene when many of these are right at the end of the spring preparations. Just a little bit of give in the ground suits and there isn’t much speed in this race so she should sit handy and put herself into the race here. Has placed at Group 3 level before and suspect she may get out to better than the $10 currently on offer on the tote as she is not a very high profile horse in a no name stable. Solid each way bet in the last race to finish the spring. BEST ROUGH : Race 8: 11-ULUNDI $3 EW Talented but erratic type who is best ridden cold and coming home hard late which is likely to be the racing pattern here today. Worked home well at Flem on Oaks Day and just got a query about many in this field who are either out of form, at the end of their spring preparations or just non winners. Worth something each way and again should be better than the $13 currently on offer on the tote. QUINELLA : Race 7: Box 2,6,8,9,11 x $1 =$10 Sure to be some value in the Sandown Guineas in a very even field. Find it hard to get enthused about the favourite the (1) after he just fell in last start, and likely to be a value quinella if something silly gets into the placings. The silly value runners here are the on pacers the 8-FIRST COURSE and the 11-SAINT ETIENNE, both of whom stuck on extremely well at Flemington. So box up a quinella around them with some of the main other chances and good chance of a $50 plus collect here. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 8: 6-EREWHON at around $4.40 Darley runner and they have dominated Sandown Guineas Day the last couple of years. This one is lightly raced with a good record and should be fitter for the 3 runs in, but was very disappointing last start at Flemington when was very well backed. Jockey reported he felt awkward in his action, although the vet could not find anything wrong. Just in a pretty even field, coming off a poor run prefer to be looking at others. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. ALL UP PLACE BET PLACE Race 3: 2-OLYMPIC WIN PLACE Race 7 : 8-FIRST COURSE, 11-SAINT ETIENNE PLACE Race 8: 2-EXTRA ZERO PLACE Race 9: 9-MAYNEDA STRATEGY x $2.50 = $5 Seeing we need to try and get back into the black let’s have another crack at a Poor Man’s Quaddie. Race 3 is a two horse race in the (1) and the (2), but the (2) just stays all day and should be in the finish for a safe start. Race 7 is where the value is, so let’s put in the two value on pacers the (8) and the (11) and hope one of them ends up in the finish. Double bonus if they both do of course !. In Race 8 the (2) looks over the odds – currently around $7, actually thought he should be favourite on form. Doesn’t win that often but has the best form by far in this field, suspect he will shorten up with the track firming up. Come home on our top pick in the last who looks a great value each way bet and should be around $3 the place. Good luck. |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. DREAM OF NEXT SPRING Race 2: 7-SHOPAHOLIC, 1-COMBAT KITTY, 3-MISS STELLABELLE Race 3: 2-OLYMPIC WIN, 1-NORSQUI, 6-JUMPIN JACK CASH Race 4: 10-SCREEN, 9-PARABLES, 13-MASTHEAD Race 5: 9-UNDER THE EIFFEL, 4-LAUNAY, 5-SISTINE ANGEL Race 6: 1-AMERICAIN, 2-MOURAYAN, 4-LAMASERY Race 7: 6-AMAH ROCK, 8-FIRST COURSE, 9-NIAGARA Race 8: 11-ULUNDI, 2-EXTRA ZERO, 8-BELGIETTO Race 9: 9-MAYNEDA STRATEGY, 3-HI BELLE, 5-MISS BINDI |
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| RACE 6: ZIPPING CLASSIC GROUP 2 2400M WFA |
| Tips: 1-AMERICAIN 2-MOURAYAN 4-LAMASERY |
| Others: - Pace: LEADER DICTATES Leaders : 2-MOURAYAN Handy : 3-MANIGHAR Back : 1-AMERICAIN, 4-LAMASERY, 5-SAPTAPADI Chances: 1-AMERICAIN was the impressive winner of the Melbourne Cup last year and his effort in this year’s Melbourne Cup was probably just as good – just not as obvious. He was re-shoed which is a setback, he stuck a dry track and he definitely needs some give in the ground, and he tried to come from a clear last on the home turn, and you just don’t win Melbourne Cups coming from last. Plus he was top weight, giving 22 of the rest of the field 3kgs or more in a very lopsided race. Absolutely outstanding effort, he came from last, ploughing away to finish just off the place getters. Australian form is first rate, Geelong Cup win, Melbourne Cup win, MV Cup win and excellent Melbourne Cup 4th. Long straight here is going to suit, give in the ground is going to suit and he pretty much looks a good thing at set weights in this. Maybe only query is the small field and whether something on pace can dictate, but should just win. Looks a good thing, but no odds to play with. Strong chance. 2-MOURAYAN was one we fancied in the Melbourne Cup, but really no shock that he ended up a late scratching after pulling up “mildly lame” and a “little bit pregnant” on Derby Day. Form can be a bit erratic, but seems to be racing in the best form of his career. Form from the Bart Cummings holds up through NIWOT, and he was probably the best run of the race in the Mackinnon when working home very well. Solid, on pace staying type and the small field is going to suit here – he can take off when he wants, get a soft lead and try to pinch this. Ran 3rd over 3200M in the Sandown Cup here on a similar wet track last year. Only danger to the favourite. Chance. 4-LAMASERY shows a fair bit of promise and is one of the few Australian stayers showing a bit of potential. Really strong win last start coming from last at Flem, although the track was strongly favouring those running on that day. Sydney staying form was excellent, stepping up in distance early in his preparation and coming with long hard runs late to win. Just flopped a bit in the Metropolitan when thought he may have gone better. Cup campaign had a set back, but seems to be well and truly over that. Question mark here might just be the wet ground, though it’s a bit hard to tell for sure from his form – but he does seem to be better on top of the ground. Maybe just whether he is going to be as strong a wet track 2400M as some of this. If it is a sit sprint though he probably has the best turn of foot out of these. Chance. Place: 3-MANIGHAR like a few of the internationals is now going to call Australia home. Come over, race them, sell them so you don’t need to take them back again. Waiting for the Today Tonight expose on the dole bludging international horses. This guy is extremely one paced – like extremely one paced. Consistently one paced though. This year – 4th in the Caulfield Cup and 5th in the Melbourne Cup. He did actually hit the lead about 300M out in the Melbourne Cup. Last year 5th in the Caulfield Cup, 7th in the Melbourne Cup and 3rd in this race. Almost identical performances, he just plods away. Meets the (1) 4kgs worse off here – and he beat him home last start. Probably better with a bit of give in the ground so track conditions here suit. Couldn’t win this race last year so hard to see him doing it this year. Place best. Sacking: 5-SAPTAPADI was the scape goat in the Melbourne Cup for the too many internationals coming over and taking our jobs argument. To be honest, have to agree, how on earth he made it into the field we don’t know. One career win in a maiden a year and a half ago. Absolutely no form what so ever. Had the 3 runs over here and really shown nothing. Starts rank outsider here and only horse with no chance in this race. No Summary: Going to be a interesting race to watch, but not really a betting race in a small field with a stand out, short priced favourite. ZIPPING won this race four years in a row and we declared it a good thing in each of those years – the class horse will win at WFA against moderate opposition. Despite this being a WFA race normally there is only one or two genuine WFA horses in it who have a big advantage. Small field is going to come down to tactics. 2-MOURAYAN leads and is in good form, so with the right ride guess he could pinch this. 3-MANIGHAR sits just off the speed, 1-AMERICAIN, 4-LAMASERY sitting out the back, hopefully not giving the leaders too much of a head start. Regardless of the speed though, on a wet track, over the long Sandown straight, under this weight scale 1-AMERICAIN should just win. Class above these at the weights. Bit hard to bet at $1.60, maybe $1.80 to $1.90 could get tempted, looks a good thing and we don’t often back short priced favourites, but really he just wins. 2-MOURAYAN the only danger if he bowls along in the lead, and he has taken off mid race before to a long lead so they might try that trick again. 4-LAMASERY in top form, and will be running on, sit sprint race would suit, but just wonder on a genuine wet track over the 2400M against these. Looks like a set back and watch race. Enjoy. One to risk: 5-SAPTAPADI Roughie: 4-LAMASERY The Key: WFA Conditions – best horse wins |
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