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| SANDOWN: SANDOWN CLASSIC - 17th Nov 2012 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: OVERCAST - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): And here we are at Sandown again and the end of another Spring Campaign. Sandown Classic Day is actually a pretty good day to have a punt, there is a good mix of races and horses and usually some solid value to be had. This is the only break Sandown gets all year so sometimes the track can favour leaders on this day on fresh ground. The meeting sometimes switches between the Lakeside and the Hillside course, but it is on the Hillside this year which normally favours those running on. Normally if we are going to get a leader bias it will be on a firm dry track, but there is a bit of rain around so track should stay DEAD and every horse should have its chance. Just watch the pattern early though in case anything develops. This is the last week of our Spring Campaign. We will continue to post regular tips on our Facebook page until next Spring rolls around once again. There is actually plenty to bet on today and we need to be a bit more ambitious to try and get a last minute get out from a losing season so going to double up to the $100. BEST BET: Race 6: 1-MOURAYAN $25 WIN The Sandown Classic is one of the few races of the year where we are happy to go the plonk on a short priced favourite. The trick to the race is that it is at WFA, and normally the field is made up of lower grade handicappers as is the case this year. This one has been racing really well, is miles ahead of his rivals on WFA form, put in a good run in the Melbourne Cup and will probably have improvement to come out of that. Likely to race on speed and make his own luck and just looks the winner. Maybe save with an exacta on the 5-9 from 1 as well, but happy to have a solid win bet here at around $2.50. Should win. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 9-AMARACHI $5 EW QUINELLA: Race 2: 9-AMARACHI, 6-FAMILY PORTRAIT x $2 QUINELLA: Race 2: 9-AMARACHI, 8-WHITTEN’S DELIGHT x $2 Drop back type who was noticeably finishing off really well on Cup Day on a track that was favouring those racing on the speed. Long straight here at Sandown should suit and drawn out to get into clear running and make a long uninterrupted run at them. Nice each way odds at around $7 and have a dabble at some value quinellas with the fresher horses on the scene, the (6) and (8). BEST WIN: Race 7: 4-PROVERB $10 WIN BEST WIN: Race 7: 14-HOST OF THE PARTY $7.50 WIN BEST WIN: Race 7: 12-GOLD MEDALS $3 WIN The Sandown Guineas is always an open race and think you can back a few straight out here. Really liked the run of the (4) at Flemington, it was a stop, start tempo and he drifted back and was running on really well late, the two others in this race that finished in front of him had already pinched a break but he was closing really well. Proven over further than 1600M is good for the long Sandown run home, and should have improvement out of that run coming off a 5 week let up. So back him to win, and there are two at good odds here on the way up to watch out for, the (14) and the (12). The (14) has had only the 2 starts, finished on really strongly last start to not miss by much and blinkers go on today should see further improvement. Another who is suited by the long run home and will run out a strong Sandown 1600M and looks on the way up. Great value at around $21. The (12) was well backed last start and finished on well and stable won this race last year. Happy to back all three, and looking for some value with the fresher horses on the scene. Definitely have something on the (14) at odds, think he will run a race. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 13-NEW BEGINNING $5EW QUINELLA: Race 9: 13-NEW BEGINNING-FIELD x 50 cents = $7.50 If you are looking to get out for spring in the last race, then wish you good luck !. Bloody tough capacity field of mares, but the value runner here might be the (13). Ran into a dead end when making her run last start at Flemington, had to stop and start again and still finishing on well. Drawn out but just needs to get some cover and get out into clear running but there should be solid speed in a big field. Pretty much anything could step up and win this, so back each way and take a quinella with the field and hope a roughie lands in the finish as well. Each way at around $10, but probably much better on the tote on the day. QUINELLA: Race 5: 1-OVER QUOTA #2,10,12 x $4 = $12 This one is just so super consistent and very under rated, keeps starting at nice odds every start. Fitter for the 3 runs in, should be right at peak now and has been going along OK. His special trick is that he just lobs on the speed and makes his own luck. Up against a field of dead set non winners here, the likes of 8-MISTER MILTON and yes, yes we are talking about you 9-MORANT. Don’t be surprised to see an upset result here, not sure how well some of these are going or how much they have left this spring. Has to give weight to this field, so might find one better, but pretty much always in the finish and looks good value at around $14 so should be some nice quinellas on offer through the main dangers the (2) and the (10) and the roughie the up and coming (12) in a field of questionable form. BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 14-BIG BUDDIE $3 EW Again very big field in this race and we do have a short priced favourite the (11) who was very impressive last start but is going up substantially in weight and you just never know in a big field what is going to happen. Even though this one is not suited under this weight scale he is just racing really well, probably should have won at MV last start, drawn a nice barrier and will get the run of the race here and probably stick his head into the finish somewhere. Most of these are out of form or 1st up, so pick the race fit one and have something each way at around $15. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 2-LUNAR RISE at around $5 The Sandown Guineas is always a even race with lots of chances and often there are fresh horses on the scene that pop up. Even though this one won last start at Flemington he meets his rivals from that race slightly worse at the weights, and he is an on pacer drawn wide here who is probably going to get caught out wide and get a hard run. Just preferred the run of those behind him last start, if not something lightly raced might pop up here and produce so happy to take on at the odds on offer. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUADRELLA: Races 6,7,8,9 : 1 / 4,14 / 3,4,6,9,11,14,15 / 1,8,9,12,13 x $5 = 7.14% Pretty keen on the 1-MOURAYAN in the Sandown Classic and you can anchor him in the quaddie here. Be brave and just go the two runners in the Sandown Guineas, the (4) and the long shot the (14) so then we can go wide in the last two legs in wide open fields and hope for a result. Quaddie should still pay very well with big fields and especially if the favourite the (11) gets beaten in the third leg. Good luck. |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. ENJOY SPRINGVALE Race 2: 9-AMARACHI, 6-FAMILY PORTRAIT, 8-WHITTEN’S DELIGHT Race 3: 1-IRONSTEIN, 6-VERDANT, 3-IBICENCO Race 4: 6-STRIKE THE STARS, 5-ÉCLAIR SURPRISE, 8-TAI TAI TESS Race 5: 1-OVER QUOTA, 2-RASPBERRIES, 10-LORD WIMBLE Race 6: 1-MOURAYAN, 9-RAWNAQ, 5-GARUD Race 7: 4-PROVERB, 14-HOST OF THE PARTY, 12-GOLD MEDALS Race 8: 15-MID SUMMER MUSIC, 4-HOT SNITZEL, 14-BIG BUDDIE Race 9: 13-NEW BEGINNING, 1-SKYERUSH, 9-CARBERNET |
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| RACE 6: SANDOWN ZIPPING CLASSIC GROUP 2 2400M WFA |
| Tips: 1-MOURAYAN 9-RAWNAQ 5-GARUD |
| Others:8 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 8-DAME CLAIRE Handy: 1-MOURAYAN, 4-HE'S HOT TO TROT, 5-GARUD Back: 2-PRECEDENCE, 3-TANBY, 6-UMATIC, 7-EXCEPTIONALLY, 9-RAWNAQ Chances: 1-MOURAYAN is one we have a bit of time for and he is a tough, on pace stayer who just keeps putting in when right. We liked his chances in the Melbourne Cup, but the main concern was that he might be a little under done, and in hindsight that looks to be the case – he got the perfect sit, pulled out to make a run and looked dangerous and hit the lead soon after they straightened, but just didn’t quite finish it off. Still a solid effort though and suspect he is going to get a lot of improvement out of that run. Really his form this time in, all at WFA group level is miles above his opponents here, and the trick to this race is often there is only one genuine WFA horse in the field – and that is him. Third in this race last year behind AMERICAIN and MANIGHAR which is pretty strong form. Should go forward here and make his own luck, stable have won this race multiple times recently with horses coming out of the Melbourne Cup and stand out, on top, one to beat. Really should win. 5-GARUD is a lightly raced one on the up and he has a bit of a dash and a turn of foot which is good to see. Stable are obviously eyeing next year’s Cup and want to get his rating up before next Spring. Geelong win was super impressive, the speed was solid, but he let down and zoomed passed them really nicely. Sent out favourite on Cup Day and he did have to go very early and very wide and hit the lead 4 wide on the home turn, and actually stuck on really, really well down the straight - the first three home in that race spaced the rest clearly. Already had a pretty long preparation so you wonder how much is left, and not suited under this weight scale but has the most upside out of any in this race. Has a bit of a finishing burst so a sit and sprint wouldn’t bother him too much. Chance. 8-DAME CLAIRE is one we think is a wee bit under rated and rate her as a chance of an upset here. She is a really tough on pace mare and that is going to be the big plus here – she will lead and make her own luck and just about always sticks on really well. Was a bit wayward in the straight in the Bart Cummings when right in the finish, then not suited back to the 2000M in the Coogny but still fought on well and set a decent task trying to lead all the way in the Lexus and wasn’t disgraced. Obviously not suited under WFA, but small field might come down to tactics. If the track is favouring on pacers definitely elevate her, but she is the value runner here for your trifectas – would be very surprised if she doesn’t run in the first three giving the right run. Rough chance. 9-RAWNAQ improved out of sight in the VRC Derby and now we need to work out how genuine that form is. Tricky. Really hadn’t shown much before that but the Derby run was out of this world. Go back and watch it, on the inside on the home turn out the back of the field, almost knocked over, must have been giving the leaders ten lengths or so and railed through, switched out and came with one almighty run. Seriously impressive. Almost too good to be true. Gets into this with no weight and pretty fresh. Just hard to line up the 3YO staying types at WFA, but really this isn’t much of a field., and he gets 7 to 9 kgs from them, so pretty hard to ignore. Likely to drop back in a small field, but really you have to say if he repeats the VRC Derby run he probably wins this. At first glance we were happy to go around this one, but having watched the video again he is right in this. Strong chance. Place: 2-PRECEDENCE is a tough, consistent type who just falls short of the top level but has been going along pretty well this spring. Really he has been running on well in pretty much every start this spring and not surprised he managed to make the top ten in the Melbourne Cup. Realistically, he is a handicapper though, but the handicaps have got the better of him and he is forced to carry big weights when he goes around, so the WFA scale here probably suits. Sandown winner, probably prefer a slightly firmer track than this, will drop back in a race that is probably going to have a muddling tempo and he really needs a fast speed to run on. Prefer place. 7-EXCEPTIONALLY has been trying hard all spring but just couldn’t cut it for an invite into the Melbourne Cup. Super consistent stayer who just is her own worse enemy dropping well back in races, struggling to get clear and then coming with powerful finishing bursts. Her finishing bursts in the Naturalism and Herbert Power were outstanding, the jog and canter Geelong Cup didn’t suit and then stuck on pretty well in the Lexus. The long straight here is going to suit, as is a little bit of give in the ground. Small field though means there is a good chance of a trot and canter again and that is what bought her undone at Geelong and you just wonder how much more she has got left to give this spring? Has placed in this race before, will be thereabouts, but just hard to back with confidence giving her racing pattern. Rough only. Sacking: 3-TANBY is a solid stayer who to be honest we think is a little over rated, he really just tends to grind away without doing much special. Seems very once paced this preparation. Was probably slightly disappointing first few runs this time in, then won a pretty weak Bart Cummings, although he managed to stick on well on Stakes Day in the Queen Elizabeth behind a rather smart one. Stable are obviously a good chance to win this race again – maybe they should rename it the Lloyd Williams Classic ? He just grinds away and prefer to back others under this weight scale though. No 4-HE'S HOT TO TROT is stepping up from restricted races to Group 2 WFA so you can probably grab a healthy 100-1 or so about his chances. Fair win strike rate at best, been comfortably held over in Adelaide in his lead up races and those who beat him home contested races during Cup week without much success. Not suited under this weight scale either. Probably races handy. Bit ambitious ? No. 6-UMATIC is coming off even lower class races than the (4) – might be time to rethink the “Classic” name tag here. Been thereabouts in all his runs this time in, but in much weaker grade and although not being beaten far, not really giving much incentive to follow either. Been up since late July, not suited under this weight scale. No Summary: The trick to this race is the small field, the tactics and the WFA scale – normally there is only one genuine WFA horse in this field, it is normally “trained” by Lloyd Williams and its name normally starts with a “Z”, but we will take an “M” this year. Those coming through the Melbourne Cup actually have a really good record in this race, four of the last five winners have come through the Cup, though guess three of those times it was ZIPPING anyway. But if you can finish in the first ten in the Cup then you are a pretty solid chance here. Small field and only one likely leader, the 8-DAME CLAIRE who could put in a bit of a race if the track is favouring on pacers and she gets her own way in front – she is best ridden aggressively to a long lead. 1-MOURAYAN the only other on pacer and likely to get the run of the race here and most of his rivals are going to be giving him a decent head start. Really pretty keen on the 1-MOURAYAN here, was pretty fresh going into the Melbourne Cup, went pretty well there, going to have a lot of improvement coming out of that run and normally thrives on hard racing. Big plus racing on speed, making own luck and stable knows how to win this race. But best of all he is really the only genuine WFA horse in the field and his form is miles ahead of his rivals. We declared ZIPPING a good thing a few times in this race and think pretty much the same about the 1-MOURAYAN here – happy to have a solid plonk on it. The wild card is the 9-RAWNAQ whose Derby run was huge, realistically he probably either wins or does nothing, and the 5-GARUD the other one on the up. So happy to have a solid win bet on the 1-MOURAYAN, maybe rove a few trifectas with the 8-DAME CLAIRE filling a place and maybe just save on an exacta with the 5-9 from the 1. Very keen to bet though and one of the few races where happy to back a short priced favourite under these conditions. One to risk: 3-TANBY Roughie: 8-DAME CLAIRE The Key: Who has genuine WFA form ? |
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