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| CAULFIELD: SANDOWN CLASSIC - 16th Nov 2013 |
| Track: SLOW (6) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Plenty of cold, miserable weather mid week in Melbourne. Thank goodness we didn’t get this weather last week for the Cup. Clearing up a little towards the weekend but this track is going to remain genuinely rain affected and a genuine SLOW at very best. We are racing at faux Sandown, also known as Caulfield, whilst Sandown undergoes track repairs. Any other track they would plan major repairs to AVOID their major meetings, but it is a bit different with Sandown, which is just a no frills work horse for Melbourne racing – its main function is to provide dreary mid week meetings for the rest of the year. Generally when the rail is out at Caulfield on a wet track they come off the rails in the straight and the racing pattern favours horses finishing on late out wide. Watch out for outside barriers and strong finishing horses later in the day, but also be wary there isn’t much speed in quite a few of these races with smallish fields. Often it can pay to watch out for fresher horses on Sandown Classic day, as most of these are right at the end of their spring campaigns, and have often missed targets during the spring and just trying to grab a Sandown consolation prize pack. Smallish fields, and the juicy exotics of Cup Week are now gone, so the best betting plan is to just back one or two runners straight out to win, or maybe all up some win bets to try and make a big collect. There isn’t that much value in most of these races and you would think the main chances will feature in most events. The tips do look exceedingly boring and predictable. We need a major miracle to get out in the Betting Portfolio so we need to throw in a few exotics to fluke a $500 plus collect BEST BET: Race 3: 4-BEL THOR $8 WIN TRIFECTA: Race 3: 4 / 1,8,9 / 1,8,9 x $2 = 33.33% We collected on this one last week and can’t see any reason to drop off this week. Been racing very consistently all spring, been thereabouts and often not winning, but the key to this one is riding him cold at the back of the field and a track with some give in it. Looked the one you wanted to be on a long way out last week and this field isn’t that much stronger, and stays around the same weight. The wet track is the real plus here and think the $5.50 odds on offer looks really good value. Throw in a miracle get out trifecta as well with the value runners the (8) and the (9). BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 3-MAHISARA $7 WIN QUINELLA: Race 5: 3-MAHISARA, 1-GALAH x $3 QUINELLA: Race 5: 3-MAHISARA, 8-EXIMUS x $2.50 QUINELLA: Race 5: 3-MAHISARA, 6-KOONOOMOO x $2.50 Won this race last year coming off a Cup Week win, but his run down the straight 1st up this year was actually pretty good. He led down the outside rail that day, those that fought out the finish came down the middle of the track so he may be been in the wrong ground, and he was leading till inside the last 1000M or so. Solid 1400M record, there isn’t much speed in this and he should jump and lead and be pretty hard to run down at around $4.80. Instead of backing each way, back straight out and take some quinellas to try and get a bigger collect, the (1) has been racing well but probably doesn’t win as often as he should, the (8) is the fresh horse on the scene who likes it wet and his 1st up run was good and the (6) had been racing well before last start where there may have been issues. Think this guy should pretty much lead and win though. BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 6-ESPRIT ROSSA $2.50 EW QUINELLA: Race 9: 3,4,6,7,10 boxed x 50 cents = $5 Last two races are the more open events of the day and think we are going to push for this one at odds. Is up in class and not really suited under this weight scale, but has been racing really well and really fighting out her finishes. Wet track is no problem and she does run out a strong 1600M – and there are quite a few in this that are either out of form, up in distance rapidly or who are a query at the 1600M.Drawn a nice middle barrier to come off the rails later in the day and should sit off these and suspect she is going to run a race at around $21. Have something each way and box up a quinella in one of the few races where there should be a dividend, especially if the (7) does something at long odds in this. Might as well try to finish spring with a bang with a $20 winner as the top selection. TRIFECTA: Race 8: 1,10 / 1,10,11,12 / 1,3,4,6,7,10,11,12 x $10 = 27.77% The more open races are the last few so let’s try and hit a decent trifecta to get out for the spring. One to beat here is the 10-PLATELET who was a strong chance in the feature Group 1 last week until she was caught sneaking out the bedroom window and was grounded. On pacer, loves it wet, drawn middle and on speed off the rails, with excellent Caulfield record. Best weighted horse under this weight scale is the very consistent 1-PINWHEEL, who has been at the top of the weights in his races for along while. They look the most likely winning chances, the main dangers are the (11) and the (12), so take a trifecta with these fighting out the finish and load up for 3rd and just hope something like the 7-AMAETHON pops into the frame to blow out the dividend. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 1-PAXIMADIA at around $3.20 Stable does have a good record in this race, but just think everything went right for this one last start. First race of the day, first use of a track that favoured on pacers, and got a soft, uncontested lead. Flopped here when didn’t lead in between the two Flemington wins. Doubt they will let him lead uncontested here, the blinkers have gone on the (3) who probably goes forward as does the (5) and the (7). Suspect one of the more lightly raced ones down the bottom will suddenly step up and win too, just hard to know which one. But happy to lay this one as don’ think the race will be run to suit and is likely to shorten even further on race day. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. $5 ALL UP PLACE Race 2: 6-PLANET PURPLE PLACE Race 3: 9-SAVITAR PLACE Race 6: 6-EPINGLE PLACE Race 9: 6-ESPRIT ROSSA Last week we kicked off a 4 horse all up place bet with 2 winners, so let’s try it again. Have to steer away from the obvious picks to try and find some value place getters, in Race 2 the (6) just keeps plodding away and did finish on well last start, the (9) looks over the odds in Race 3, the (6) will run on strongly in Race 6 and looks ready to do something and let’s come home on our best roughie in the last at odds. More trying to find long shot place getters than winning chances, which, knowing the way of the punt, probably means they all win. Looking at close to a $1000 collect if this gets up for a $5 outlay, so what the heck, let’s have a stab at a miracle collect. |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. DRIVE TO SANDOWN. WRONG TRACK. COME BACK. Race 2: 6-PLANET PURPLE, 4-MUJADALE, 3-CARAVAN ROLLS ON Race 3: 4-BEL THOR, 1-MOURO, 9-SAVITAR Race 4: 4-POLITENESS, 6-SENSE OF HITE, 1-METASTASIO Race 5: 3-MAHISARA, 1-GALAH, 8-EXIMUS Race 6: 8-QUEENSTOWN, 1-PRECEDENCE, 6-EPINGLE Race 7: 6-APOLLO’S CHOICE, 4-BEST CASE, 3-EQUATOR Race 8: 10-PLATELET, 1-PINWHEEL, 11-SHE CAN SKATE Race 9: 6-ESPRIT ROSSA, 4-BONARIA, 3-SHE’S CLEAN |
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| RACE 6: SANDOWN CLASSIC GROUP 2 2400M WFA |
| Tips: 8-QUEENSTOWN 1-PRECEDENCE 6-EPINGLE |
| Others: 2, 9 Pace: LEADER DICTATES Leaders: 8-QUEENSTOWN Handy: 1-PRECEDENCE, 2-SERTORIUS Back: 3-RANSOMED, 5-WHAT'S IN A NAME, 4-MIDSUMMER SUN, 6-EPINGLE, 7-DETOX, 9-KAZANLUK, 10-MISS ZENELLA Chances: 1-PRECEDENCE is racing in close to career best form, which is good work for an 8YO if you can get it. Last two runs have been excellent, always looked the winner swooping out wide in the MV Cup, and last start settled a lot more forward than usual and knuckled down and fought out the race with the other on pacer, the (2) who he meets here again. Is very well suited under this weight scale too – meets the (2) +2.5kgs for beating it home by the barest of margins last start. Does have a habit of settling well back and probably wouldn’t want to do that in this small field with not much speed on. Caulfield record isn’t the best, but the main issue here is the wet track – on paper his wet track form doesn’t seem the best. If you do look closely though most of those runs were over shorter trips so maybe he is just an unknown on the wet, rather than a query. Definitely a question mark though on a slow track. Flying at the moment, suited under this WFA scale and has the best WFA form in this field – in that he has actually ran at WFA where most of these have not. Strong chance. 2-SERTORIUS has always shown a heap of ability and they have been very patient in his previous preparations building up to this spring where he has really got to the level he always promised to. Excellent win/place strike rate. Showed a touch a class to sprint away from them in the Bendigo Cup and fought out the finish to the line last start at Flemington. He has a better turn of foot than all of these and that may be a factor in a slowly run pseudo WFA race here. Just be wary of his wet track form as well, the slow and heavy wins were over 1200M and 1300M in fairly weak grade, so jury is still out on whether he handles it wet. Not well weighted against the (1) from last start, and barrier (1) may not be the place to be if they are coming off the rails. But he can settle more handy than most of these in a small field and is a strong chance here. Chance. 6-EPINGLE is one we have a bit of time for, though she doesn’t tend to win out of turn, but is a solid, strong finishing staying type who we just don’t think we have seen the best of yet. Fitter for the 3 runs in and last 2 runs have been good, running on strongly at MV and then loomed up at Flemington but just didn’t quite finish it off. Think she will get a lot of improvement out of that run and she just looks like she is ready to do something here. Another who is not suited under this weight scale. But she is a solid strong finishing staying type, she definitely handles it wet, the 2400M should suit and think she is a genuine chance in this. Main issue may be lack of speed in a small field, but if they are running on OK out wide, and they should be, think she is a major player here. Strong chance. 8-QUEENSTOWN is one you can make a strong case for here. Racing in very consistent form, and was probably unlucky to get nabbed literally right on the line last week when she had to work across from an outside barrier. Very smart win / place strike rate and will handle the wet track here. The big plus for this one is that she is the leader, and there is close to no speed at all in this field and she should be able to dictate the speed easily in this. Tough, grinding on pacer and she is going to be awfully hard to run down in this. One to beat and looks the winner. Strong chance. 9-KAZANLUK is another one coming into this fresher than many of her rivals and does seem to be running into form. Fitter for the 3 runs in, ran on really well in very strong form race at Flemington 1st up, nothing made ground 2nd up at MV and was the best of the late finishers last week at Flemington and meets everything out of that race 1 to 2 kgs better off. Quick a few ticks to pay attention to there. Only the one slow track run so largely an unknown. Does drop a long way back and does need the speed on and not sure she will get that in this small field. Hasn’t won past 1600M a slight concern, in a WFA 2400M race. But being the best weighted and strongest finisher out of the race last week, and those runners make up much of this field you can make a case for her. Chance. Place: 4-MIDSUMMER SUN is coming into this fresher than many of these and that is often a big plus at the end of a long spring campaign. Only the 2 runs in though, so stepping up quickly in distance again. Finished on well at Flemington so does seem to be running into form and is a previous Caulfield winner. Import who might just be starting to hit his straps after one preparation down under, so seeing him continue to improve would not be a surprise. Not really suited under this weight scale, but then again , neither are most of his rivals. Probably won’t be far away, but prefer place. Place. Sacking: 3-RANSOMED is a moderately performed NZ visitor and hard to believe he has come all the way across just for this – maybe he is visiting some relatives whilst he is over here? He has at least actually been running in WFA races, whereas many of these have not. Just be wary of his wet track form here too, the 2nd on a heavy track was beaten a long way. Not sure of his racing pattern in a small field? Pretty much watch the market on this one, but hard to get over enthused about his chances. No 5-WHAT'S IN A NAME has popped into this Group 2 2400M WFA classic with the traditional benchmark 90 race lead in run. Lower grade horse, who is lightly raced at least, but making a massive step up in class here. Guess he did finish on well last start. Has been stepping up rapidly in distances 1200/1600M/2000M and up again to the 2400M here. Not wet track form either. No 7-DETOX is one of quite a few coming through the mares race last week and hard to see how she is going to beat home those who finished in front of her there. Start before that at MV was good when got too far back in a leader dominated race behind the (8). Yet to win past 1600M, doesn’t have any wet track form and hard to see beating home the ones that have had her covered last few. No. 10-MISS ZENELLA is another mare coming out of the Matriarch and strange that most of the field this year is made up of runners from that race. Fitter for the 3 runs in, but really hasn’t shown any form this time in. Lightly raced and has some ability and may appreciate the wet ground here, but hard to get over enthused about her form till she actually shows some. No Summary: This is actually normally a pretty good race to have a solid bet on, the field is normally small, there are very few genuine WFA horses in it and at this end of the spring we know how all these are going and what level they are at. Just looking back over previous winners it has been the tried and true old time stayer who has won this race, though the field is a bit unusual this year with half of the Matriarch field backing up for some reason. The slow to heavy track this year and the small field does throw some unknowns into this race though, as most of these are backmarkers, there is close to no speed and quite a few are queries on wet ground. The leader looks the 8-QUEENSTOWN, who is hard, fit, in form and will get her own way in front here and looks very hard to run down, with only 1-PRECEDENCE and 2-SERTORIUS likely to sit handy. Have to go for 8-QUEENSTOWN here on that basis, she just looks like she will get the run of the race in this. 1-PRECEDENCE the main danger, is in pretty much career best form, and ticks the box of hard old time stayer in this and is probably the most suited under WFA conditions, and pretty sure 6-EPINGLE is going to do something today with improvement from last week on a wet track as long as they go fast enough to allow her to run on. But you can probably take quinellas with the (8) and you would think it would be pretty safe way to end Spring with a collect. One to risk: - Roughie: 9-KAZANLUK The Key: Race handy in a small field |
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