|SANDOWN: SANDOWN CLASSIC - 12th November 2016|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
This is the last week of our Turf Deli Mini Spring Campaign 2016. We will continue to post tips on Facebook and Twitter for the rest of the year, and be back next Spring hopefully with more time and a new website. Thanks for coming along for the ride this Spring.
We are racing at Sandown Hillside this year and that track normally favours those running on late. Track is firm at the moment, but there is rain and storms forecast for tonight and tomorrow morning before clearing, which should take the edge off the track. Sandown has had a nice refreshing break, so we should get even racing, but it might be hard to lead and win.
The Betting Portfolio has been running for 17 meetings this season for 5 profits, 11 returns and only 1 wipe out and we are agonisingly close to posting a season profit with net currently sitting at -$27.30. There seem to be a few good each way bets on this program too to finish off the season.
BEST BET : Race 7: 1-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN $7 WIN
Proven stayer who has been racing in great form with narrow defeat in the MV Cup and then stormed home in the Melbourne Cup. Won this race in a canter last year against a weaker field – but also coming off much worse form. Should be able to camp on the speed here, and in a race with a lot of unknowns stick with the one that is proven at WFA and back straight out at around $3.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 8-JUNGLE EDGE $3 EW
Really tough wet track on pacer, and some rain on the way is a big plus for this one. Excellent career stats and good record here at Sandown and although better known over further fought on really well last start at MV over this trip, and 1000M record is pretty good. Drawn out to roll on speed in clear running and think he is going to be hard to run down here. Each way at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 11-SUPER CASH $5 EW
Sandown Classic Day is often Spring Consolation Prize Day and we can’t think of a horse more deserving than this one. Always shown a lot of talent and a great win 1st up. Got scratched at the barriers on Caulfield Cup Day in a race that was run to suit the backmarkers and she probably would have gone close to winning, and then drew the wrong side of the track on Derby Day when thrashed all those that came along the inside. Up against the males here, not that suited at the weights, but there are a lot of question marks over how some of these are going and just think she is flying. Confident each way bet at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 11-ALASKAN ROSE $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 1,10,11,13 boxed x $3 = 50%
Has been racing really well this spring and no luck at all last week when got blocked for runs at a crucial stage and should have been in the finish. Bit of rain will be a big plus for this one. Drawn out and drop back and the racing pattern should favour those running on and just think she is going better than many of these. Each way at around $9 and there should be some value in the quinella in a big field with the main danger the 13-COOL CHAP who will lead here and is a horse on the way up, the consistent 1-LIDARI and the value runner might be the 10-GABELLA who wasn’t suited last start trapped from an inside barrier with a big weight and will also appreciate some rain around.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 11-ANOTHER BULLSEYE $2.50 EW
Big even field and you want to go for a value runner here. Drop back type who has drawn a perfect middle barrier and last 2 runs have been excellent against these – especially last start when running on well but didn’t get the clearest run. Given a freshen up into this, and should be storming home late at odds of around $12, but suspect will drift come race time.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 9-SOVIET SECRET $2 EW
Small field in the Sandown Guineas and this race can sometimes throw up some funny results – especially watch out for the fresh horse on the scene. This one has been going through her grades well this time in. On trial at the 1600M, but has good career stats and contested decent class races in her first preparation and wasn’t disgraced. Might be the boilover here at around $21 and a good way to increase value in trifectas and first fours in a skinny race.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 3-DE LITTLE ENGINE at around $4.50
Consistent stayer who is really, really good at running on for 4th, but we just find him impossible to catch. Has run some great races in good company this time in, and this is probably a winnable race, but he hasn’t really got into a finish this time in. Only won 1 of last 14 starts now, and has been in the betting market in most of those races. Not a huge amount of opposition here, but just can’t consider backing him with any confidence.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
$5 ALL UP PLACE
PLACE Race 3: 5-MURPHY’ S DELIGHT
PLACE Race 4: 8-JUNGLE EDGE
PLACE Race 8: 11-SUPER CASH
PLACE Race 9: 11-ALASKAN ROSE
Let’s end the season with a Poor Man’s Quaddie, the place getter in four races all up. The 5-MURPHY’ S DELIGHT looks a great each way kick off, fought on well last start with weight and should be fitter for the run, and come home doubling up on our other each way bets for the day who should all be in the finish hopefully. Looking at around $250 for a $5 outlay
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. JUST BACK THE TONY MCEVOY HORSE
Race 2: 1-STRATUM STAR, 4-REDKIRK WARRIOR, 5-SOVEREIGN NATION
Race 3: 5-MURPHY’ S DELIGHT, 1-QEWY, 2-BRING SOMETHING
Race 4: 8-JUNGLE EDGE, 6-O’MALLEY, 10-ROCK’N’GOLD
Race 5: 11-ANOTHER BULLSEYE, 14-PETITION, 12-GHENWAA
Race 6: 8-JENNIFER LYNN, 1-MORTON’S FORK, 9-SOVIET SECRET
Race 7: 1-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 2-BIG ORANGE, 8-SO SI BON
Race 8: 11-SUPER CASH, 4-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD, 2-UNDER THE LOUVRE
Race 9: 11-ALASKAN ROSE, 13-COOL CHAP, 10-GABELLA
Race 10: 12-SHILLELAGH, 6-METAPHORICAL, 9-EXTENSIBLE