|SANDOWN: SANDOWN CLASSIC - 17th NOV 2018|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Of course there is always Sandown Ė and this meeting is always under rated as is this racecourse. There are always deep fields with plenty of value on this day and it is actually a good day to have a bet and even get some Spring Carnival redemption. The trick is always if they are racing Hillside or Lakeside, as Hillside favours runners on and Lakeside favours on pacers, especially at this meeting when the track has the biggest break it has all year. We are racing at Hillside this year so they should be able to run on OK and win.
This is always the consolation meeting at the end of spring for many of these horses, having one last run before they go out for a spell. So watch out for fresher horses on the rise as many of these will be coming to the end of their campaigns.
In the WFA Sandown Classic, there isnít a single WFA quality horse, so letís stop pretending. Horses backing up off a Melbourne Cup actually have a pretty good record in this race. There is a small field and next to no speed, but that often seems to be the case in this race and it still seems to turn into a strong staying contest up the long Sandown straight. The 4-THE TAJ MAHAL is the only leader here, and won this race last year leading all the way. Does have excuses for last two runs, taking off very early in the Caulfield Cup, and racing wide all the way in the MV Cup, but even so, struggling to get enthused about a horse who racing pattern is a bit erratic. The only other likely on pacers are the 2-VENTURA STORM who didnít stay the 3200M on a wet Flemington track, but really had the MV Cup handed to him on a platter for first win in 2 years, and the improving import 7-DAL HARRALID.
However we are going to put the veteran 3-LIBRAN on top, last two starts have been excellent finishing on strongly both times and normally has to carry big weights in handicaps these days so suited by the WFA conditions here. The long Sandown straight should suit and think he might outstay them here. Respect for the improving 8-OUR LIBRETTO who has been mapping a low key path through the spring but looks destined for bigger things. Definitely one on the rise and was just getting warm late in the Matriarch last week over the last 100M. Think she is under the odds, but might show her potential today. Not writing off the 1-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN either, donít think wet tracks are his thing and the MV Cup run was excellent as top weight, so back on a firm track today at WFA might show his best form again. From a betting point of view, will be having a solid win bet on the top pick at around $7.
There are a stack of horses we tipped and backed during Cup Week going around today, like Race 3: 14-ZARGOS, Race 4: 3-KIWIA, Race 5: 8-SAVANNA AMOUR, Race 6: 6-MAN OF HJIS WORD, Race 7: 2-GOODíNíFAST, 3-RINGERDINGDING so we will have to have a saver bet on them just in case. Lots of decent each way bets on this program so we are going to double up to $100 in the Betting Portfolio and have a bet in most races on a day where we can see lots of $10 chances we want to have a bet on for the last day of Spring Campaign.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 3-LIBRAN $15 WIN
We have found lots of good each way bets today, but this is the best of them so lets just go straight out to win. Solid consistent stayer whose last two runs have been excellent, running on late in the MV Cup, and sticking on well last week at Flemington, both times having to give weight to his opposition. Suited to WFA conditions today and should be one that toughs it out up the long Sandown straight so happy to back straight out at around $7.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 5-BLACK ON GOLD $7.50 EW
Eye catching run at Flemington on Cup Day when he was finishing home really well along the inside, and that was coming off a 2 month let up so should have plenty of improvement to come. Doesnít even handle wet tracks that well so that was a super impressive effort. 1800M record is outstanding, 3 wins from 6 starts and last start 4th was first time he has even missed a place over this distance. Should be able to settle more handy here in this small field and looks a good each way bet at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 8-SAVANNA AMOUR $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 8-SAVANNA AMOUR, 10-COOL PASSION x $2.50 = 250%
QUINELLA: Race 5: 8-SAVANNA AMOUR, 5-CHAMOIS ROAD x $2.50 = 250%
OK, so maybe we back this horse too much, but she does has a fair bit of talent on her day. Fitter for the 3 runs in and run down the Flemington straight last time was OK when not beaten that far, she loomed up, but some more talented back markers zoomed past her. Happy to give her one more chance and yet more of our hard earned at around $8 and save on the quinella with the consistent on pacers the 10-COOL PASSION and 5-CHAMOIS ROAD in case they pinch a break and canít be run down.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 7-ZOUTORI $5 EW
The Sandown Guineas is always a very open race and you can make cases for plenty of these. One thing to be wary of is that most of the field are backmarkers and there is little speed here except for the 4-SCOTTISH ROGUE. We like the way the (7) is progressing through the spring, he got badly hampered by a riderless horses two starts back when should have placed, and then really didnít get clear running for most of the straight on Derby Day and finished on well. The long straight at Sandown and the 1600M should suit and keen to back each way at around $11.
QUINELLA: Race 10: 8-SEDUCTIVE MISS, 10-SNOGGING, 6-TRULY DISCREET boxed x $9 = 300%
The last race of spring is wide open and there will be plenty of value in the much under rated Quinella. Letís go for glory and try and score a value collect with the 8-SEDUCTIVE MISS who looked home last week at Flemington before just fading late over the 1700m, the 10-SNOGGING who has ability but just doesnít often find the right race and is a strong finisher who is going to be suited 3rd up at Sandown in a race with a fair bit of speed, and the 6-TRULY DISCREET as the on pacer who got caught up in a speed battle when had to work last start. At odds of $7, $18 and $23 thatís at least a $50+ quinella on three value chances in a tricky race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 14-ZARGOS $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 3,5,7,13,14 box x $5 = 50%
We are going to give this one another chance even after backing it and running poorly on Derby Day. Wasnít given much chance that day when wide and went for home early and did loom up but died on the run. Run before that at Caulfield was excellent and think you can forgive the poor Flemington run against a pretty strong field. Back to own sex here and back to 1400M suits, and this race is very open so might as well back something at around $25. Also take a box quinella which should pay in an open field with the 3-EAWASE who chased hard last start, the 5-TAHITIAN DANCER who is a strong finisher, the 7-INTO THE ABYSS who is due to win and the random roughie 13-TATIARA who hasnít been racing that badly and might do something at around $61.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 9-FOX HALL $5 EW
Talented galloper coming back from an injury lay off and the two runs back have both been good. Should be ready to peak now and should jump and go forward here, although there are a few other leaders in the race, so maybe better to just sit behind the speed. Just get the feeling there is a lot of improvement to come off the last two runs and think he will do something today at around $12.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 4-MALIBU STYLE $5 EW
This is a really open 1000M race with lots of chances. The Sandown 1000M is a bit different to most in that they donít really go around a bend, they just ease around the turn from a chute. There is a stack of speed in this race, and some really good back markers in the 10-INVINCIBLE AL, 3-BONíS AWAY and 5-Iíll HAVE A BIT and they should be able to run on OK as you can just sit out wide in space around this track and distance. But the value in the race is the (4), who is fitter for the 2 runs in, keeps his form when he finds it, always takes a few runs in to find his best form and can sit just off the speed here from an outside barrier, and get a clear crack at them in between the leaders and the back markers. Something each way at around $20.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 3-YOGI at around $2.90
We are the first to admit there is a good chance that this Lay Of the Day will win, but we just canít justify backing this horse. Talented drop back stayer, who does have a good Sandown record and you would think getting out to the 3200M would suit. Doesnít have much opposition here is a worry for us in terms of getting him beaten, but he just keeps dropping back in his races and not winning and just canít justify backing him at these odds. If he canít win this, perfectly placed and suited against mediocre opposition you should definitely never back him again. More like just donít care if he wins regardless, rather than taking him on.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 4: 5-BLACK ON GOLD
PLACE: Race 6: 9-FOX HALL
PLACE: Race 8: 3-LIBRAN
PLACE Race 9: 4-MALIBU STYLE
Doubling up on some of our bets already, but letís go a Poor Manís Quaddie to end the Spring Campaign. In smallish fields, so we donít want any scratchings to lose the three place dividends, but the Race 4: 5-BLACK ON GOLD, Race 6: 9-FOX HALL and Race 8: 3-LIBRAN should all be around the finish which just means we need the roughie Race 9: 4-MALIBU STYLE to lob into a place and we are looking at around a $450 return.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. GET STUCK ON DANDENONG ROAD.
Race 2: 6-AZURO, 8-KELLSTORM, 7-COUGAR EXPRESS
Race 3: 14-ZARGOS, 7-INTO THE ABYSS, 5-TAHITIAN DANCER
Race 4: 5-BLACK ON GOLD, 3-KIWIA, 8-RADIPOLE
Race 5: 8-SAVANNA AMOUR, 10-COOL PASSION. 5-CHAMOIS ROAD
Race 6: 9-FOX HALL, 8-FIFTY STARS, 6-MAN OF HIS WORD
Race 7: 7-ZOUTORI, 3-RINGERDINGDING, 5-SECRET BLAZE
Race 8: 3-LIBRAN, 8-OUR LIBRETTO, 1-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
Race 9: 10-INVINCIBLE AL, 4-MALIBU STYLE, 3-BONS AWAY
Race 10: 8-SEDUCTIVE MISS, 10-SNOGGING, 6-TRULY DISCREET