|SANDOWN: SANDOWN CLASSIC - 14th November 2020|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
End of spring and we are back at dear old Sandown and finally owners are allowed back on course. We are racing on the Hillside track this year, which normally means that runners on can win, however just be wary as the course has had a nice long break so being up on speed and close to the rails will be no disadvantage.
There are a few naysayers on social media about this meeting, but to be honest we reckon itís a pretty good meeting to have a bet and find a winner. Whilst some of the fields are on the small side, it just means we can have some confident win bets and we have actually managed to find a few we are keen on at good odds so we are going to double up to $100 and have a whack on a few on the last meeting of Spring Campaign 2020.
For the feature Sandown Classic, this race has often been won by a horse coming through the Melbourne Cup (even off an ordinary run) and the 1-AVILIUS is the only horse to meet that criteria this year. Despite often drawing a small field, this race always seems to be a genuine staying test and requires a strong stayer. We have a clear leader this year in the 2-LEVENDI with the 3-BRIMHAM ROCKS and 4-SOUND sitting next in the run but donít expect them to string out too much in this.
Going through the field, the 1-AVILIUS was unlucky not to be in the finish of the Caulfield Cup when the gap closed just as he was making the run, and then he finished well tailed off in the Melbourne Cup so it would be a fair turnaround to feature here, though he is currently favourite in the betting. He has raced at the top level for a few years now and is probably classier than most of these, just find it hard to get enthused about taking $4 on a horse that finished 22nd last start. The 2-LEVENDI has been injury plagued for a few years now and has struggled to regain his 3YO form, the one third this preparation was well spaced on a leaderís track and form just isnít good enough at the moment. The 3-BRIMHAM ROCKS is a very consistent stayer who has been thereabouts this spring and does have solid 2400M stats and will settle handy here and give himself every chance so has to rate as a chance. The 4-SOUND has been super consistent this spring and has been in the finish of most races he has contested, so probably deserves a win. Unlucky in the MV Cup when he got shuffled back on the rails on the turn and then looked the winner at Flemington before a solid staying effort from an international runner beat him. He is a solid staying type, in form, who can settle handy here so really the race is his to win if he wants Ė just a matter of if he is a winner or not Ė 18 starts in Australia now for still not a single win. The 5-FUTURE SCORE is one we wanted to back last week in the Queen Elizabeth with confidence, double check what the reason was for the scratching. Fresher in the spring than most of these, appreciated the fast speed in the Cranbourne Cup for a nice win and then hopelessly unlucky in the Hotham Handicap when he couldnít get out behind runners early in the straight and finished off well once in the clear. Does meet the (3) and (4) worse off on weights from that run, but think he has more improvement to come than them and is the one to beat here.
The 6-LORD BELVEDERE is another who has been racing very consistently this spring, winning three on the trot at Flemington, and he actually wasnít beaten that far last start in a strong race. He is a solid staying type and he needs room to gradually wind up into a race so didnít think the inside barrier suited last start, although he has drawn inside here the small field will give him plenty of running room. Winning chance off a freshen up. The 7-ATTORNEY was also scratched last week, so check the reason, and he hasnít raced for a month now. Thought he was a little disappointing in this last Sydney run and happy to risk end of campaign run here. The 8-PRINCESS JENNI surprised with how strong she was at her first try at 2400M last start, they went at a fast speed there and she was travelling very well a long way out. The runner-up confirmed the form when narrowly getting beaten last week, and she has always shown a fair bit of ability. Think she represents value at the odds on offer as she could be a pretty good stayer and we just didnít know it before. The 9-SCARLET DREAM has been finishing behind them most of the spring, even enough efforts the last two but hard to see her improving enough to be competitive here and not sure she is a true stayer.
We were intending to declare the 5-FUTURE SCORE last week, so as long as the scratching set back was a minor issue we are going to declare him here again today, fresher than these, excellent run up in distance last start and keen to back straight out at around $5. The consistent 4-SOUND as the main danger who really deserves a win and the long Sandown straight will probably suit, and wary of the 8-PRINCESS JENNI whose Bendigo Cup win was pretty impressive and she had the race won a long way out. Punting plan is a confident win bet on the top pick with saver quinellas with the two main dangers. Keen to bet.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 5-FUTURE SCORE $15 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 8: 5-FUTURE SCORE#4-SOUND, 8-PRINCESS JENNI x $5 = 250%
We were really keen on this one last week in the Queen Elizabeth, but he was scratched so as long as that wasnít an injury setback keen to try again today. Fresher this spring than most of these, fitter for the 3 runs in and good Cranbourne Cup win off a solid speed before hitting the line well when held up for runs in the Hotham. Excellent track and distance stats and expect there will be a lot of improvement still to come off last run when was stepping up in distance. Back straight out at around $5 and save on a quinella with the consistent 4-SOUND and the 8-PRINCESS JENNI who impressive winning the Bendigo Cup.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 7-WILD VIXEN $10 EW
Under rated mare who was good winning 1st up at Geelong at nice odds and then hit the front about 200M out and looked the winner at Flemington, but was just swamped late by some strong finishers. That was second up so plenty of improvement to come and really like the way she has run into the race last two starts, she has a very nice turn of foot when it is timed correctly. Small field, unlikely to be much speed and she should be able to run into race here and win at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 2-ICONOCLASM $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 2-ICONOCLASM, 5-GALAXY RAIDER, 7-MR EXCLUSIVE boxed x $6 = 100%
Small field, but actually think nearly all of these have some chance, so we are actually going to ignore the two short priced favourites and look elsewhere. This one is a tough on-pacer who hold his form once he finds it, small field on-speed suits, unbeaten at the 1500M (he does find a mile a bit too far), likes firm ground and should just get a perfect sit behind the speed in this race. Back each way at around $10, which looks very generous odds for a horse that has won 11 starts, and save on a quinella with the strong finishing 5-GALAXY RAIDER and donít be surprised if the roughie 7-MR EXCLUSIVE runs a race here, ran a very narrow second in this race last year and totally forget the first up run when he got stuck on the rails the length of the straight and race was over before he got warm. Plenty of value here if the favourites fail to leave up to expectations.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 3-STROME $7 EW
Wide open last race and there are quite a few at odds that seem to have some chance. This one went to the lead last start into a headwind, on a day that was favouring those running on, kicked clear in the straight and really was only run down the last 50M, was a great run. Good barrier and can settle handy here in a race where there doesnít seem to be a lot of speed and quite a few of these are a query past 1400M. Looks well over the odds at around $25 and we are going to try for a nice value box quinella below in the Wonder Bet in this race as well.
QUINELLA: Race 4: 4,5,8,9 boxed x $6 = 100%
Fairly open sprint race where the classy 9-EXPRESS PASS is the one to beat, but we are also wary of the 4-TAVISAN who looks a clear leader with not much pressure Ė just he normally takes a few runs to find best each time in. There are two good value roughies in the strong finishing 5-VAINSTREAM fitter for the 2 runs in and back on a dry track, and the on-speed 8-TONY NICCONI who ran into the race like the winner last start and might improve at odds. Taking a quinella around these as suspect we will get some at odds into the finish in this race.
QUINELLA: Race 7: 5-SIN TO WIN#7-NAVAL WARFARE, 2-ETAH JAMES x $6 = 300%
We gave out a strong tip for this one last start as he finally got out to a suitable 2800M distance and loved the way he outstayed them from last there at Flemington. He has been racing really consistently for a while now and this race looks very suitable, there really isnít much in the way of form or opposition here. Not keen to back a horse straight out at $4 who doesnít win that often though, but there should be good value in the quinella here with the fit on-pacer the 7-NAVAL WARFARE and expect improvement from the 2-ETAH JAMES who has only had the three runs this time in and MV Cup run was promising before finding the Melbourne Cup a bit too much.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 5-CHEQUERBOARD $3 EW
This one has Sandown form, and was good first up last start at Bendigo when the track was favouring those on-speed, but she did lead and kick strongly in the straight before just running around a bit and getting run down late. Really liked the kick last start, can sit handy off a good speed in this and might run better than the $20 odds suggest. Good rough chance early in the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 4-ALLIBOR $3 WIN, $4 PLACE
We spotted this one last start and although well beaten dropped out to long last and was making substantial ground along the rails late in the race. Up in distance and to Sandown should suit a strong finisher, and note the switch to blinkers today which might see him racing a bit more forward. The short priced favourite the 1-AYSAR looks the one to beat and has been racing well in much, much harder races, but he is also at the end of his campaign and has been run down the last two starts so this one might give this race a shake at around $20.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 6-KENYA at around $2.50
Import who was very impressive leading all the way and winning at Mornington when well supported, but really didnít beat much at all in the way of opposition there. Small field can lead to funny tactics, there is another leader here in the 1-BUFFALO RIVER to take him on and not as easy to lead all the way at Sandown Hillside. Small field can lead to funny results so prefer to play with a few at value here and happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to buy an interstate holiday once the borders are open.
QUINELLA: Race 10: 3,6,7,8,12 boxed x $5 = 50%
Wide open last race and we actually think there are quite a few here over $20 with some chance, and mainly because the favourite here the 4-MISSILE MANTRA is down in class, but is basically a non-winner. We have already backed the top pick the 3-STROME at $25, the strong finishing Sydney sider the 7-TRICKY GIRL is probably the one to beat and the 12-PIERRO BELLE should be fitter for the 3 runs in, wasnít beaten that far last start when coming off 1400M/1100M preparation, drawn well and sits handy with Sandown form and goes around at $51. And if that wasnít enough we have the very consistent 6-NO EFFORT who was super tough in the Pinker Pinker and then something must have been wrong last start so happy to forgive that run, proven past 1400M when most of these are not, so another great long shot at $61. Throw in the talented but frustrating strong finisher the 8-LA TIGERESA at $31 and that is one giant bundle of value quinella in the last race of the Spring Campaign 2020.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. NO BET.
Race 2: 2-HIGHLY DISCREET, 5-CHEQUERBOARD, 1-LA MEXICANA
Race 3: 7-WILD VIXEN, 5-BLAZEJOWSKI, 2-KEMALPASA
Race 4: 9-EXPRESS PASS, 4-TAVISAN, 5-VAINSTREAM
Race 5: 2-ICONOCLASM, 5-GALAXY RAIDER, 7-MR EXCLUSIVE
Race 6: 1-AYSAR, 4-ALLIBOR, 8-SWEET REPLY
Race 7: 5-SIN TO WIN, 7-NAVAL WARFARE, 2-ETAH JAMES
Race 8: 5-FUTURE SCORE, 4-SOUND, 8-PRINCESS JENNI
Race 9: 12-POWER SCHEME, 5-GOLD FIELDS, 2-SO SI BON
Race 10: 3-STROME, 7-TRICKY GIRL, 12-PIERRO BELLE