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- Better odds - up to 20% better |
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| CAULFIELD : SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES - 24th Sept 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(4)- Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Topsy-turvy weather during the week in Melbourne, switching from bitter cold to lovely sunshine, all with plenty of gale force wind. Just a few showers forecast heading into the weekend, so shouldn’t really affect the track and we should be looking at a perfect racing surface DEAD(4). Last week the rail was OUT 10M and the track raced pretty evenly, the on pacers did stick on, but you could come from back in the field and get into the finish OK. Rail goes back to the TRUE here which could favour on pacers, but normally this meeting tends to be a pretty even racing pattern and it is Caulfield Guineas Day that you can often get rail TRUE and dynamite leader’s track. Bit of a lack lustre program , being Part 2B of the Underwood Stakes program. Shame the TAB didn’t run the quadrella across both weeks, would be nothing like the excitement of being live in the last leg - and having to wait 7 days for a result. So just be wary, there are a couple of fields here that are packed with horses with no form at all, and we have thrown a couple of super roughies in the selections accordingly. Spreading the bets around a bit with not much really jumping out of the form guide screaming “back me”. RESULTS : Actually ends up a pretty exciting days racing with ATLANTIC JEWEL and HELMET stepping up as the 3YO stars of the spring. Dry windy day and track actually gets upgraded to a GOOD(2) which is very unusual in this day and age. Even racing, they could run on and get into the finish, but in general it was probably a slight advantage to be on the speed. BEST WIN : Race 3: 4-CARNERO $9 WIN X Finally broke through for a win last start, and just like the way he rolled to the lead and kicked on a track that was actually favouring those running on late. Now that he has broken through he may go on with it. Lots of out of form horses in this field, he will kick and lead and give you a good run for your money at least and think the $5 or so on offer actually looks pretty good odds. RESULTS : Lobs in the lead, but is quickly collared in the straight. Back to the non winner bin for him. Jockey reported track was too firm and he failed to run out the 1700M. BEST WIN : Race 3: Race 5: 9-CHASE THE RAINBOW (scr), 12-CROSS OF GOLD $5 WIN SCR $5 Both of these are 3YO C+G on the way up. The (9) has been coming along nicely, and really probably should have won last start at Flem when drifted back to last and come strongly weaving through the field and was very strong to the line. The (12) has had only the 2 starts and finished on really well last start here and the step up to the 1400M should suit. With a few smart ones in this field it means we are going to get OK odds about these two so can back both of them and still finish ahead. RESULTS : Top pick gets scratched because of a track upgrade, which again is very unusual. The other one runs on OK, but it very well beaten. QUINELLA : Race 7: 10-IRISH DREAM, 5-SHRAPNEL x $4 X QUINELLA : Race 7: 10-IRISH DREAM, 6-ADNOCON x $4 X QUINELLA : Race 7: 10-IRISH DREAM, 9-AMAETHON x $2 X / 1st 9-AMAETHON W=$16.60 The (10) in this race is going along really well, she is stepping up in class, but should be fitter for the 2 runs in and really like her two runs in Melb this spring – she has been very professional, put herself into the race and is very honest. Looks a safe bet to anchor some quinellas around to try and get a value result. The (5) has a stack of ability when right and is unbeaten 2nd up, the (6) might be the value runner here – last start at Flem wasn’t that bad a run when crossed the field and led into the breeze, this is short of his best distance, but stable often places sprinters very well down here. The (12) has good Caulfield and fresh form. Quinella probably still pays OK in an even field. RESULTS : Top pick here is very , very disappointing and never looked likely. Did drift strongly in the betting and another who reported the track was too firm. Shame cause we had the value winner in there so there was a nice quinella to be had. BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 8-PINNACLES $5EW 2nd W=$30.90, P=$6.80 = $34 This one is going along really well, steps up to Group 1 company here and does have a reputation for being a bit of a non winner - but last two runs here have been excellent, is fit, in form, can sit handy and out of trouble. Ticks a lot of the boxes for the form you want to win this race historically. Suspect he will be largely forgotten on the tote and will probably get out to over $20, and good chance he will burst through sometime in the straight and be in the finish here, even if he does find one better. Nice each way bet at odds in a tough field. RESULTS : Lovely run from our value runner here who sat just off the speed and always looked like he was going to be in the finish. Came out at the top of the straight and looked a solid winning chance. Did drift nicely in the betting and had to love the odds on offer about a well drawn, in form, fit runner. BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 8-PACINO $3 EW SCR $6 Famous for mixing his form, but he is fitter for the 3 runs in and was an eye catching run here 2 starts back when finished on really well. Nicked up to Sydney and did nothing, but let’s allow him that flop. His best form is at Caulfield, and he is actually yet to be unplaced in 5 starts over the Caulfield 2000M. Well drawn here, not much speed and he can sit on the speed and he does have a nice kick when let down. Suspect he is going to do something at odds today and there is a lot of dead weight in his field. Currently around $17 on TAB fixed odds. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 5 : 1-HELMET at around $3.00 1st W=$2.60 So far it has been a disastrous run for the Lay of the Day, with 4 winners from 6 weeks. We are doubling up here laying the Sydney form, taking on 13-SMART MISSILE in the feature race as the One To Risk, but it is not because we doubt the Sydney form, it is more just that we don’t think either horse looks well placed today. Our Lay Of the Day rule book is not to take them on off winning runs, but lay them off bad runs (and you would have thought we would have been safe with PANIPIQUE last week). This one is fitter for the 2 runs in, but continues to do a lot wrong in his races, and remember he was SCR at the barriers here as well at Flem in March. The other trick with laying something is making sure there is something in the field that can actually beat it – and carrying top weight in this against quite a few that are up and coming like the (3), (9) and (12) just means we think he looks a bad bet in this. Laying. RESULTS : And there goes another one....Not only does the Lay of the Day win, he sits on the fast speed and absolutely smashes them. The running joke continues at full speed, but we will keep pumping these out just for the bizarre thrill of it all. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Daily Double : Races 6, 8 : 1,7,8,12,14 / 8,15 x 50 cents = $5 2nd 8-PINNACLES W=$30.90, 3rd 12-MASTER OF DESIGN W=$27.40 / 1st 8-MIDNIGHT MARTINI W=$2.20, 2nd 15-MODEL TO NITE W=$11.00 Even though the main race looks wide open, we are confident one of these five will win and there should be some value in the Daily Double with a capacity field in the last leg, where we are quite confident about the (8) and the (15). RESULTS : Darn it we gave that one a bit of a shake, with two nice value long shots in the finish in the main race, and the value runner only just missing in the last. Drat and double drat - not far off a nice collect here. SPENT : $50 RETURN :$45 NET : $-5 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 7-NERIANI, 10-TOTAL LIBERTY, 2-TONIC Race 2: 3-ATLANTIC JEWEL, 8-SHARNEE ROSE, 6-CRUCIAL Race 3: 4-CARNERO, 11-CABEZA, 5-EXTRA ZERO Race 4: 8-PACINO, 5-ANUDJAWUN, 14-THE BLACK OAK Race 5: 9-CHASE THE RAINBOW, 12-CROSS OF GOLD, 3-GOLDEN ARCHER Race 6: 8-PINNACLES, 7-LUEN YAT FOREVER, 1-PINWHEEL Race 7: 10-IRISH DREAM, 5-SHRAPNEL, 6-ADNOCON Race 8: 8-MIDNIGHT MARTINI, 15-MODEL TO NITE, 4-STOLE |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-NERIANI 3rd W=$2.00 10-TOTAL LIBERTY 2nd W=$22.50 *** nice value place getter *** 2-TONIC |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st W=$1.50 8-SHARNEE ROSE 3rd W=$8.30 6-CRUCIAL |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-CARNERO 11-CABEZA 5-EXTRA ZERO 1st W=$5.20 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-PACINO SCR 5-ANUDJAWUN 14-THE BLACK OAK |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-CHASE THE RAINBOW SCR 12-CROSS OF GOLD 3-GOLDEN ARCHER |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-PINNACLES 2nd W=$30.90 *** best each way bet of the day *** 7-LUEN YAT FOREVER 1-PINWHEEL |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-IRISH DREAM 5-SHRAPNEL 6-ADNOCON |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-MIDNIGHT MARTINI 1st W=$2.20 15-MODEL TO NITE 2nd W=$11.00 4-STOLE Quinella : $13.60 |
| RACE 6: SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES GROUP 1 1400M |
| Tips: 8-PINNACLES 2nd W=$30.90 7-LUEN YAT FOREVER 1-PINWHEEL |
| Others: 14, 12 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 5-DANZYLUM, 17-JUNGLE RULER Handy : 1-PINWHEEL , 3-DAO DAO , 7-LUEN YAT FOREVER , 8-PINNACLES , 12-MASTER OF DESIGN , 14-DREAMAWAY, Back : 2-WOORIM , 4-TOORAK TOFF , 6-YOSEI , 9-SILVER GRECIAN , 10-TESTASCANA , 11-BLACKIE , 13-SMART MISSILE , 15-MAJESTIC MUSIC , 16-GOLD SALUTE Chances: 1-PINWHEEL is fitter for the 3 runs in and should be right at peak now. Very nice winning strike rate and fit and in form for this. Meets the (12) substantially better on weights from last run (2.5kgs). Drawn well and can race handy which is a big plus and yet to finish further back than 4th now in his last 11 starts – and never finished further back than 6th ever – now that is one consistent horse. Last 2 starts were 1st tries past 1200M and you get the impression this is probably as far as he wants. Likely to get an extremely good on pace sit in this race and put himself into the finish. It is just the weight that bothers us, to win this race as top weight you really need to be something special. Almost certain to be in the finish though, so maybe anchor trifectas around this one ? Chance. 7-LUEN YAT FOREVER was the surprise overseas pick up from last year, was a bit of a joke runner , and he over raced and was a menace in the Cox Plate, but his form otherwise last spring over these 1400M to 1600M races was excellent, being right in the finish in both the Toorak and the Emirates. He is a tough type, who is a little one paced, but keeps fighting on and really liked his Emirates run where he battled it out for the length of the straight to only be narrowly beaten. Was unlucky to just miss in one of the Sydney runs, and his other Sydney form wasn’t much good over Autumn, but worth noting 3 of those runs were around 2000M and suspect he is much better around the mile. Ran on very strongly carrying weight 1st here up in a blanket finish, but the form from that race has held up OK and he does meet the winner from that race the (8) better on weights for a narrow margin. 2nd up but stays at the 1400M here, and can probably sit wide and handy from this barrier and suspect he is going to stick on for a long while in the straight. Solid chance. 8-PINNACLES is super consistent for a non winner, but he did finally break through 2 starts ago when ridden differently to go forward and hold off practically the whole field in a blanket finish fighting out the length of the straight – that was a really tough win. That was his 1st win in 16 starts with numerous placings in between. Really solid performance here last week when was closing rapidly on the line. Always suspected he just struggled past the 1400M and preferred it dry - even though he did manage that 3rd in the 2008 Doncaster on a bog track. 7 times winners over the 1400M. Gets a nice weight drop from his last 2 runs into this race. Interesting to note that Williams who rode him to win here 2 starts back has gone onto the stable mate instead ? He has drawn a good barrier, he is fit and in form, he can race handy and put himself into the finish here, lots and lots of positives. Suspect he is going to be largely forgotten on the tote, and start over the odds, but rate him quite highly in this. Strong chance. 2nd W=$30.90 12-MASTER OF DESIGN is a lightly raced Sydney visitor with an excellent win strike rate and big plus here is that he has had the 3 runs in and is in winning form, unlike many of his rivals here. Amazing how much of a factor winning form can be in these tough open Group 1 races, so that is really a major tick. At the bottom of the weights, can race handy and that is also a big plus in this race and he does tick a lot of boxes for the sort of horses you want in this race. Chance. 3rd W=$27.40 14-DREAMAWAY is a lightly raced WA visitor with solid form in the 3YO classic races over there. Maintains a good win strike rate, and totally forget the run 1st up at Flem when never get a clear run at any stage in the straight. 2nd up, but stays at the 1400M,dry track will suit and should be able to race in the front half of the field from this barrier. Has some untapped potential, impossible to tell how she is going based on Flem run and gets in at the bottom of the weights here so think has to be respected. Strong chance at odds. Place: 2-WOORIM is a strong finisher who was competitive in these sort of races last spring in Melbourne. 5 times winner over the 1400M. Ran a really good race in this race last year when finished on very strongly for 3rd, but did have a habit of getting too far back and running on too late last spring. Interesting to note that he ran 3rd in this race last year coming off an unlucky run at MV the start before – and that this year he won that MV race in his lead up, so might actually being going better this year ? . Solid win last start, but the track was strongly favouring swoopers that day so might be a little flattering. Nice barrier here and you would really want to see him ridden in the front half of the field – and that is probably the key here, dropping back in big fields is just asking for disaster. Not sure he will settle forward though ? The other issue is the weight, this is always such a tough competitive race it is hard for those at the top of the weights to win. Wining form is a big plus though, so rate a rough chance. Rough. 3-DAO DAO is an above average performer who is maintaining a very healthy win and place strike rate for an 8YO. Firm track and 1400M both suit, placed 7 from 8 over the 1400M and often in WFA races. Placed 1st up here in the Autumn, this track and distance behind MORE JOYOUS and WHOBE, and almost held off WHOBE the start after in the Blamey, which is all pretty darn good form. Drawn out a bit here, and normally does race handy so likely to be caught wide, and just a little dubious about backing a horse 1st up over 1400M in a tough competitive race like this – but he does have the ability to win this so wouldn’t write off all together. Rough chance only 4-TOORAK TOFF has a fair bit of ability when right, he has been retired once and was going to be sent to stud, but a throat operation has returned his voice to it’s former glory and he is now planning a Australia wide concert tour supporting John Farnham. Only had the two runs back since the operation, he didn’t show much in the Goodwood in Adel over the winter, but his 1st up run down the Flem straight in the Bobbie Lewis wasn’t too bad actually, and pretty sure he is not a straight horse anyway. Not beaten far last start, that race is often a good guide to this race, and he poked up on the inside which was probably the worse going. Has a fair bit of ability, dry track suits, nice barrier here, he might just drop back again and be forced to try and barge his way through the field which could be a problem. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a forward race here, but still prefer to see him do something before getting back on and prefer place. 1st W=$10.50 5-DANZYLUM is a tough as they come, on pace, dry track 1400M horse so this is the perfect race for him. 8 times winner over the 1400M (placed 18 times !), won 3 times this track and distance and placed 8 times so this is his sort of thing. Fitter for the 3 runs back in, effort 2nd up down the straight at 150-1 in the Bobbie Lewis was simply outstanding, and that race is often a good guide to this one. Wouldn’t pay too much attention to last run at MV when he led and the track was strongly favouring those running on. Drawn out, but will almost certainly go forward, but he is best in races when he gets his own way in front. Likely to have to work here, chances probably depend a bit on whether the (17) starts (who has been SCR a few times recently), who is his main rival on the speed. Think he is going pretty well and probably will be right in the finish today if he can get across OK from an outside barrier. Probably prefer place at this level, but a definite for those seeking a big trifecta and first four and suspect he is going to start over the odds in this. Value place chance. 10-TESTASCANA is one of Moody’s who has been extremely well placed to string together 4 wins on end. Has had everything go his way in some of those wins when ridden forward and getting dream sits on the speed, but solid effort to over come outside barrier last start, ridden backwards and still won with something in hand. Not really sure about the quality of those he beat that day though. Guess they all have to lose sometime and stepping up in class is as good a time as any. Dropping back 300M probably isn’t that big an issue as this is always such a tough slog of a race, more worried about the outside barrier and having to drop back again in a big field. Definitely much better ridden on speed, if they go forward here he might be a chance, if they drop back suspect he will struggle. Fit, in winning form, but rough chance only for us and prefer place. Place. 11-BLACKIE is a smart one on the rise, and does have the big spring races in his sights. Came along nicely last Autumn and did have a bit of a spruik on him, looking back at the form now not sure he did anything that impressive last campaign, but obviously a fair bit of potential there. Solid effort 1st up at MV when dropped back and ran on well, but the track was strongly favouring runners on that day so maybe that effort was a little flattering. 2nd up and up 200M, another who is likely to drop back and suspect he will be running on very well at the end of this race – but probably a little too late to be a winning chance. Place. Sacking: 6-YOSEI showed a fair bit of ability in her 3YO season, with best win being the 1000 Guineas here, but from memory she got a dream run along the rails on a track where that was the best going ? Ran some bottler races last spring, normally getting too far back and running on late with flashy runs. Set a huge task going into Group 1 Myer Classic against older horses on Derby Day on bog track and never a factor trying to back up in the VRC Oaks a few days later. Put together a good come from behind Group 1 win in the QLD winter. Didn’t do much 1st up down the straight, but probably wasn’t that suited in that race. 2nd up and up 200M coming off a bad run so hard to get enthused about her changes. Main problem is that she tends to drop well back in her runs, she has drawn an inside barrier here, she is going to be smothered at the tail of the field trying to work her way through and would need a ridiculous amount of luck. No 9-SILVER GRECIAN is a Hong Kong visitor so close to impossible to line up. 1st start in Australia, going in the deep end here into a very tough, often very rough and competitive race. Note he hasn’t been nominated for anything fancy over the spring, so watch market, but would want to race handy here from an inside barrier in a big field and always prefer to see these ones run before getting on. No 13-SMART MISSILE is the 3YO super spruik horse from Sydney, which is a compulsory part of any Spring Carnival. Fitter for the 2 runs in, has had the run over the 1400M, super finish 1st up to get up and win, and then just wanted to run off the track 2nd up which probably cost it the race. Famous for beating the super horse SEPOY last Autumn, at its only defeat, which is a very big gold star on his school report. 3YOs have gone well in this race before, such as EXCEED AND EXCEL,TESTA ROSSA, ENCOSTA DE LAGO, but the big difference is that they have all been on pace horses – and this one tends to drop back in his races. The track can favours on pacers on this day, but so often this race seems to be won by those camped on the speed whilst those who get back often strike trouble in this race and run on too late. We are looking at an over hyped Sydney horse having it's first start in Melbourne, first start around Caulfield, first start against open horses, drawn a horrible barrier and likely to drop well back here in a race where those who drop back often find trouble, and he raced erratically last start. Has only been beating fields of 5-7 which you can get away with sitting out the back of the field, but close to impossible to do that in a capacity field - there is always something decent on pace that gets a kick on you. Might win on raw talent alone, and this isn't an overly strong field, but would have to be absolutely outstanding to win this race under these conditions. Happy to take him on here, just prefer to be on those on pace in this race. 15-MAJESTIC MUSIC has a bit of ability, and is best on firm dry tracks over 1400M - 1600M on big tracks as she gets back and needs to run on. 2nd up in this and didn't run on too much 1st up, but should have a fair bit of improvement. Normally quite consistent once she strikes form and been in the finish in plenty of good mares group races. Inside barrier here, likely to drop back and will need a bit of luck in a big field. Suspect she will improve and run a bit better today, but not well enough to be a factor in this. No 4th W=$112 16-GOLD SALUTE does have some ability on his day, but hasn't shown any form for a fair while now. Was favourite for this race back in 2009 when famously denied a fair start, and showed pretty good form that preparation with placings in the Toorak and Emirates which is pretty fair form. 2nd up in this race last year pulled up last with the thumps, so this race seems to be a bit of a hoodoo for him. Will be fitter for the 2 runs in, but showed no form last spring, given a full year off and shown nothing yet this year so really can't get enthused till he starts to show something. Has a history of playing up at the barriers and likely to drop back here. No 17-JUNGLE RULER is a tough, gusty grey front runner who has been hopelessly out of form last couple of months. Needs it seriously wet to show best, and would need it very, very wet to be a factor in a Group 1 race like this. Caulfield record is good, and 5 times winner over the Caulfield 1400M, but has been giving in very quickly in his races recently. Has been scratched quite a few times recently so obviously has some issues at the moment. Closing in on the 100 starts and guess that are going to keep going to the milestone, would be great to see him get back to some form before then. Drawn barrier 1 here and likely leader, so important runner for putting some speed in this, but even with an on pace bias he would struggle against this lot. No Summary: Have to love these tough, wide open 1400M to 1600M, time to bury your head in the form guide and slowly piece all this together. Always a very strong guide is to look at the past winners in these races and look for form patterns, and there are two things that stick out here. The first is that over the last 20 years only 3 horses have carried 57kgs or more to win this race – even though the limits would have gone up a few time over that time period. In fact, 14 of the last 20 winners have carried under 55kgs. The other, often really important factor in these tough competitive Group races is that you really need to be at the top of your form, so in strong winning form, or at least a place getter leading into this race. Look at the last 20 years, 9 times the winner was a last start winner going into this, a whopping 15 times the winner was a last start placegetter (including wining). So look at the form guide and try and match this pattern. The other factor here is the race often has a fair bit of interference, and often you see horses dropping back and running on too late to finish into the placings, whilst something sitting on pace has kicked and pinched the race. Speed here should be genuine, a lot will depend on whether the 17-JUNGLE RULER starts, with the only other likely leaders the 5-DANZYLUM. 1-PINWHEEL , 3-DAO DAO , 7-LUEN YAT FOREVER , 12-MASTER OF DESIGN should all be up on the speed behind these. We are actually going to go for the value here with 8-PINNACLES, just ticks a lot of boxes here, fit, in wining form, 1400M, good barrier can sit on speed and comes in under 55kgs. Many have tagged him a non winner, but really like the way he chased down the leader last start, and still don’t know how he managed to hold off the whole field to win here 2 starts back. Solid each way bet at odds and probably gets out to over $20 on the tote. Very little between him and the 7-LUEN YAT FOREVER who we really like here, strong effort 1st up, just like that he can lob on pace here out wide in clear running and he sticks on very well under these circumstances. 1-PINWHEEL the other on speed horse, just got a feeling he might be more of a trifecta horse than a win bet and probably finds one better here. Best of the rest are the 14-DREAMWAY, who could easily come out and win this, and the 12-MASTER OF DESIGN. Despite being a wide open betting race actually fairly keen that the winner will come from one of these five runners. Good luck ! One to risk: 13-SMART MISSILE 10th W=$2.80 Roughie: 14-DREAMAWAY The Key: Down in weights, last start winner or place getter. RESULTS : Despite not finding the winner think we summed up this race pretty well. Key in this race is to jump and take up a handy position, always so many unlucky runners back in the field. Huge run from the top pick 8-PINNACLES at very nice odds, and we also gave the 3rd place getter 12-MASTER OF DESIGN a solid chance at odds as well. Totally discarded the hyped, spruiked and backed off the map 13-SMART MISSILE who started absolutely ridiculous odds - was never going to win once they jumped and he landed at the back of the field. 7-LUEN YAT FOREVER didn't have much luck getting clear and was very strong to the line. Reckon if you were a Rick Hore-Lacy fan there was a monster $100,000 First 4 begging to be taken here, with rank outsider 15-MAJESTIC MUSIC actually a bit unlucky when finishing on very strong at the end of the race as well. |
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