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| CAULFIELD : SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES - 30th Sept 2012 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Back to Caulfield on Sunday for Part 2 of the Underwood Stakes meeting. Hopefully last week was just a warm up and we might actually find a winner this week. Bit hard to know exactly how this track is going to come up. It has been a fine, windy drying week in Melbourne, but torrential rain and hail forecast through Friday and Saturday so assuming this track is probably going to come up a genuine DEAD at least and probably more towards SLOW. Doing the form for a track worse side of DEAD, even though track is currently a GOOD(3) as displayed above. Rail goes back to TRUE here after being out last couple of meetings so we should get even racing. Maybe coming off the rails in the straight if the track does come up genuinely wet which they tend to do on rain affected Caulfield tracks. Really not sure about the choice to split this meeting into two – used to be a great meeting, now a clumsy Sunday meeting with a few pretty ordinary races. Going to be a few shorties doing around today and whilst they probably win not sure want to be on them at the odds on offer. RESULTS: Well the weather man is well and truly sacked. The forecast rail, hail and sleet ended up being nothing more than few light showers, so the track came up quite firm and our wet track tips were pretty much useless. Caulfield once again, firm track, strongly favoured those racing on the speed and very little made ground into the finish of the race. This has been pretty common this spring and Caulfield seems to be pretty leaderish these days - especially on dry tracks. BEST BET: Race 8: 8-MIDNIGHT MARTINI $10 WIN 3rd W=$5.80 There only seems to be three winning chances in the last race – the (2), (8), (9) and they dominate the market. Pretty keen on the (8) though, fitter for the 2 runs in, last start at MV ended up in the lead which isn’t her normal racing pattern and kicked in the straight before the MV swoopers took over. Really well weighted here getting 4kgs off the (2) after carrying equal weights last start. Key is also a bit of give in the ground which she really likes. Looks a solid bet to end the day on. Maybe a solid win bet and saved on the exactas with the (2) and (9). RESULTS: Looked a solid bet on a wet track that gave those running on a chance. On a dry firm track, strongly favouring on pacers she drifted like nothing, from $3 out to $6.50. Did looom up at one stage, so wasn't a bad run and back her once she finds a track with some give. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 4-SECOND EFFORT $5 EW X QUINELLA: Race 6 : 3,4,6,10,12 x $1 = $10 2nd 3-WE'RE GONNA ROCK W=$8.30, 3rd 6-SOLZHENITSYN W=$5.80 Really liking the odds about the (4) in the main race, especially if the rain comes. Drawn out, so will have to go forward and might get caught wide, but hopefully can sit just off the speed. Caulfield form is solid and run last start over the 1600M is better than it looks and much better suited back to the 1400M day. The each way at $17 looks pretty good, maybe get on early though as will probably shorten as the rain comes down. Wide open race, so should be lots of value in the quinella as well – and the value runner is the other on pace wet tracker the 10-MR MAKE BELIEVE. RESULTS: Once again, firm dry track was against and settled in the 2nd half of the field which is not his normal racing pattern. Pretty much stuffed before they had even gone 100M. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 5-ROCK PRINCESS $5 EW X There is a shortie in this race, the (3) who probably wins, but looks way under the odds at $1.70 at the moment. Actually prefer to be on this one each way, has been racing extremely well during the winter and will be suited if the rain keeps coming down. Actually worked home really well in a race which looked out of his class last start. Looks a solid each way bet at around $7. RESULTS: No rain comes so she drifts like nothing - $8 out to $14. Actually still a pretty good run - she settled at the back of the field, the on pacers won most races and she worked home pretty well. She is actually racing really well and keep following. BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 13-MORANT $2.50 EW 3rd W=$10.60 P=$3.40 = 3.40 x 2.50 = $8.50 Has been racing really well, but just doesn’t seem to have got into the right race. Ran on really well in 2 starts down the straight, but is a drop back, run on type who needs room, so not sure of the wisdom of going to MV and definitely not MV 1000M. Really been looking like he wants 1400M, but big field, should be lots of speed and not too fussed about the outside barrier, think he wants room and to make a long sustained run down the outside. Currently around $15, probably better on the day in a big field on the tote. RESULTS: Fortuntely this was the one race of the day where there was a genuine speed so once again he ran on well late to just miss. Starting to get a bit costly to follow, running well without winning. Would love to see him over 1400M. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 2-PRACTICED at around $1.40 2nd W=$1.40 To be honest there is no particular reason for this, other than we couldn’t find anything else on the program. He is in the tips, mainly cause it is a field of 6, so there wasn’t much choice - but really not that interested in taking $1.40 in the first race of the day – often seems to be a well backed runner in the 1st race of the day and they invariably flop. Plus Williams stable horses always start so short. Not like we are seriously going to back a horse at $1.40 – he isn’t BLACK CAVIAR, so might as well lay it. And if it wins we will refund you the 40 cents you missed out on. RESULTS: Just gets beaten - but nice lay at very short odds. Really if backing $1.40 shots in six horse fields is your idea of kicking off a day on the punt you really need to find a new hobby. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. ALL UP: x $2.50 = $5 PLACE Race 2: 5-ROCK PRINCESS X PLACE Race 5: 5-AWESOME BRO 3rd P=$1.70 PLACE Race 6: 4-SECOND EFFORT, 10-MR MAKE BELIEVE X WIN Race 8: 8-MIDNIGHT MARTINI 3rd W=$5.80 By popular request let’s go back to the Poor Man’s Quaddie. Doubling up on some of our other bets, but lets go solid place bets on the wet tracker in the first leg, the (5) should be around the finish on pace in the 2nd leg, take the 2 value wet track on pacers in the main race and let’s hope we have a solid bank going onto the best bet of the day in the last. RESULTS: Love when you take an all up bet of the best wet trackers of the day - and the track comes up good, firm and sunny. Blame the weather. RESULT: RETURN SPENT: $50 RETURN: $8.50 NET: $-41.50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 3-WHISPER DOWNS, 2-PRACTICED, 5-MUMBEILLY Race 2: 5-ROCK PRINCESS, 3-CHATEAU MARGAUX, 10-KHANDALLAH Race 3: 9-SHARNEE ROSE, 6-TAI TAI TESS, 12-ROCKABEE MISS Race 4: 2-LOVE FOR RANSOM, 4-STELLA LANTE, 8-A TIME FOR JULIA Race 5: 5-AWESOME BRO, 1-EPAULETTE, 4-TIMELY TRUCE Race 6: 4-SECOND EFFORT, 3-WE'RE GONNA ROCK,12-THAT'S THE ONE Race 7: 10-AMAH ROCK, 13-MORANT, 11-ROYAL BENDER Race 8: 8-MIDNIGHT MARTINI, 2-SPIRIT SONG, 9-CALLANISH |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-WHISPER DOWNS 1st W=$5.80 2-PRACTICED 2nd W=$1.40 5-MUMBEILLY Quinella: $2.60 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-ROCK PRINCESS 3-CHATEAU MARGAUX 1st 2.30 10-KHANDALLAH |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-SHARNEE ROSE 2nd W=$2.90 6-TAI TAI TESS 12-ROCKABEE MISS |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-LOVE FOR RANSOM 4-STELLA LANTE 8-A TIME FOR JULIA 2nd W=$4.00 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-AWESOME BRO 3rd W=$7.00 1-EPAULETTE 1st W=$1.90 4-TIMELY TRUCE |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-SECOND EFFORT 3-WE'RE GONNA ROCK 2nd W=$8.30 12-THAT'S THE ONE |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-AMAH ROCK 13-MORANT 3rd W=$10.60 11-ROYAL BENDER |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-MIDNIGHT MARTINI 3rd W=$5.80 2-SPIRIT SONG 2nd W=$5.30 9-CALLANISH 1st W=$2.40 Quinella: $6.80 Trifecta: $36.20 |
| RACE 6: SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES GROUP 1 1400M |
| Tips: 4-SECOND EFFORT 3-WE'RE GONNA ROCK 2nd W=$8.30 12-THAT'S THE ONE |
| Others: 10,6,8 Pace: GENUINE Leaders : 4-SECOND EFFORT (wide), 10-MR MAKE BELIEVE Handy : 1-GLASS HARMONIUM, 6-SOLZHENITSYN, 7-CENTENNIAL PARK, 9-MOMENT OF CHANGE (wide), 13-INSTINCTION, 14-MISTER MILTON Back : 2-PINWHEEL, 3-WE'RE GONNA ROCK, 5-SMOKIN' JOEY, 8-SHANGHAI WARRIOR, 11-STRIKE THE STARS, 12-THAT'S THE ONE, 15-BOMBALATOMBA Chances: 3-WE'RE GONNA ROCK has been a totally different horse since he was given a major chop to the downstairs area. He was one we loved to poke fun at, having a huge reputation but never going anywhere near living up to it. However, these days we are much more wary of him – since being gelded his form has been outstanding. When he loomed up back in the Goodwood in May and for an instant looked like he was going to run down BLACK CAVIAR you knew it was a different horse. Came out and won a pretty tough race 1st up – and the Bobbie Lewis has been a very strong form reference for this race in recent years. 2nd up and up 200M, but just seems to be on a rapid improve – and might finally live up to his spruikers. A wet track would probably be an issue for him – would prefer it dead or better. Will drop back and run on – that 1400M record of 5 starts for 0-0-0 does look worrying and it is worth remembering he still has not won past 1200M, but he did only just miss in a Toorak Hcp. Different horse – could be capable of anything, and think you need to keep him safe. Doesn’t seem to badly in here with 55.5 kgs. Strong chance. 2nd W=$8.30 4-SECOND EFFORT has been going along very nicely and seems really well suited here. Excellent win strike rate and he is one that will love it if the rain comes and this track comes up slow or worse. Looks like he had a few issues 1st up this spring, but given a quick break, nice on pace win here this track and distance in the Liston, and not disgraced back on firmer ground in the Memsie when he peeled out and looked a winning chance half way down the straight. Actually really like the run in the Makybe Diva and black booked him after that – there was a ferocious head wind that day, he was having his first try at 1600M which was always going to be an issue, and he pulled out to the middle of the track very early on and chased hard down the straight into the gale and didn’t really give any ground. Looks really well suited here, especially with rain, Caulfield 1400M form is solid, and can go forward from outside barrier and sit on the speed and make his own luck. Guess there are a few going forward here and the speed looks genuine, so might get caught wide from the barrier. 54.5 kgs looks good for a WFA winner this preparation. Just think he is going to be around the finish – especially if there is rain. Strong chance. 6-SOLZHENITSYN is a QLD visitor with a very impressive win strike rate and trainer has had success bringing his charges down to Caulfield before. 5 wins from 8 starts at the 1400M is a pretty imposing record. Inside barrier is the tricky part here – he has raced handy before, but has also dropped well back in the field before so it will pay to listen out for riding tactics today. Would probably want to jump and sit handy in a big field rather than waiting for luck, but just a matter of whether he can do that first time Melbourne way of going. Probably a slight query if the track got to the worse side of dead. Sure to have plenty of support – watch market and solid chance. Chance. 3rd W=$5.80 8-SHANGHAI WARRIOR is a lightly raced one with an excellent win/place strike rate and trainer has a high opinion of him. Two very nice on pace wins down the straight this time in, then something was wrong at Flem last start when even the jockey pre-race thought something was not quite right – so guess have to forget that run. Trial win since then to make sure everything is back on track. Handles all sort of going which is a big plus. Might just settle back a bit further than usual today being drawn out a little – but listen for riding tactics. Has won past 1400M so distance no issue. Bit hard to tell with this one – lightly raced, heaps of potential, good win/place strike rate, lightly weighted so lots of appeal – maybe ask the jockey as they go to the barriers if he feels any good today? Chance. 10-MR MAKE BELIEVE is one we have some time for. Great run 1st up when chased hard behind talented stable mate, then OK run 2nd up when was cluttered up for a run around the turn and don’t think he had much chance to run into the race. Fitter for the 2 runs in, loves it wet if the rain comes, in fact just a little bit of rain looks to be a big plus. Guess the Group 1 class is the test here, but plenty to like about this one. Will roll forward from middle barrier and get perfect on pace sit – there is a bit of speed in this race though - good win strike rate, should improve with 2 runs in – think he is a genuine rough chance in this. Rough. 12-THAT'S THE ONE has a fair bit of ability and showed a bit early on in his 3YO spring season. Drops well back and a hard finisher and there does seem to be enough speed here if he can get the breaks. Drawn middle means he should have room to finish on out wide. Came home really hard around the tight MV 1200M 1st up and better suited here. Jockey knows how to win these big ones. No weight, lightly raced and heaps of potential so a win would not totally surprise. Might just get back and be giving one or two of these a start, will probably be an eye catcher running on just that wee bit too late but a rough chance and keep safe in your quaddies. The speed on is the big plus for this one. Chance. Place: 2-PINWHEEL is an ultra-consistent middle distance Sydney sider, who is racing pretty well up there and clocked up the big 6 figures in prize money with his last start win. Won at WFA last start, back to a handicap today so has to give 5 kgs to close to half of this field, and you just suspect something down in the weights will pop up. Will probably drift back in the field here with the barrier draw, but the speed does look genuine. Didn’t have the best of luck in this race last year when Sydney form was pretty similar, form is maybe better this year even. Wet track no issue. Very consistent, but just with this weight and dropping back in the field might need luck and prefer place. Place. 9-MOMENT OF CHANGE is one that the stable have raved about, but it is pretty much time to step up to the big league now and put the score on the board. Famous for his soft win this time last year as a 3YO and then put away rather than pursue greater glory in the spring. Solid without being outstanding during the Sydney Autumn. Two runs this time in in Sydney have been good, winning 1st up and not being beaten far 2nd up, both times looking uncomfortable the Sydney was of going and getting a little lost around the turn. Fitter for the 2 runs in and should be right at peak today. Only missed the place once in 8 starts, no weight make appeal, outside barrier is the question mark here as does like to race handy and likely to get caught wide with quite a few who can go forward here. Not really proven on wet ground if the rain comes, but nothing to say he doesn’t handle it either. This is a pretty tough, even competitive field, he does have some ability, just not sure he is going to live up to the initial spruik though. Guess it comes down to value here, there are plenty to back in this at nice odds – and not sure the $4 or so is value about this one, especially if he gets caught wide on the speed in a tough, even field. Prefer place. 1st W=$4.10 Sacking: 1-GLASS HARMONIUM is a handy middle distance WFA horse 1st up into this. Probably has some class on some of these, but this is a race that can be hard for the top weights to win, with often so many in form fit and well weighted horses down the bottom of the field. All 3 1st up runs in Australia have been good, but it is worth noting they were over 1600M to 1800M and he might find the 1400M today a little short. Probably wants track to say dead or better. Will probably race handy, the speed looks genuine, here over the 1400M, and might get smothered on the fence here in a big field. Prefer to let him have the run today and get on him later in spring. No 4th W=$29.50 5-SMOKIN' JOEY put in an OK run 1st up down the straight where he was finishing on strongly and has a pretty solid Caulfield record. Trial win before that so should be pretty forward still, 2nd up and up 200M. Put it all together in the Autumn winning 3 on end, but worth noting he had only won the once from 15 starts or so before that. Will probably drop back here from inside barrier and might need some luck - this race is often marred by interference and horses getting out too late and storming home. Might pass today, but will probably run on and be one you want to follow later in the spring. No 7-CENTENNIAL PARK is a consistent Sydney sider who is lightly weighted and well-drawn here if he wants to sit on the speed. 4 runs this time in, 1st two runs looked pretty good then has probably struggled for form a little the last 2 runs and well beaten when in the market last start. Form over the last year really hasn’t been the best and this looks too tough at the moment. No 11-STRIKE THE STARS is 1st up going into a hustle bustle Group1 1400M race . More of a staying type who will drop back and would need luck. Prefer later on. 13-INSTINCTION is one we have been following but to be honest we are ready to drop off – so just watch as he suddenly pops up at odds this week to sting us. Does have some ability and tends to win at odds, plus with this one is that he races on speed . Nice barrier here today and should go forward and be in the right place. Liked the 1st up run when he went to run into it but couldn’t go on the heavy bog track, then trapped on inside into head wind down the straight at Flemington when again loomed up. Was on him last week here and thought his run was disappointing and ready to drop off. Probably a query if the rain comes. No (…and wait for the sting..) 14-MISTER MILTON seems to be teasing us and not really sure he is a Group 1 horse. Only won the once now from 17 starts. Forget his 1st 2 runs this time in when did not handle the heavy ground. Looked good when racing on speed and being around the finish in the Memsie, and does get a nice weight drop from that race. Then really didn’t do much at Flemington even though guess he did finish 5th, but that was down in class so was expecting a bit more. If the rain comes it is a big negative for this one. Not convinced - and really he has not genuinely been in a finish for quite a while now. No 15-BOMBALATOMBA is one we have been following this spring, or at least planned to but in our opinion he has been really badly placed. Showed a lot of promise during the Autumn, but he is a drop back run on horse who needs room and needs to be coming down the middle or outside of the track. 1st up run we can forgive as got cluttered in between horses down the straight, then not sure why you would take this sort of horse to two x tight MV 1200M scampers – really was not suited. Better placed at Sandown last start, but form doesn’t look good enough at the moment. Will probably run better than the odds suggest but not at Group 1 1400M. No Summary: Always a great betting race with plenty of value. Key historical pointers there are that the Bobbie Lewis has been a really good guide to this race in recent years, and that in big, even fields of quality horses it can be tough for those at the top of the weights. Often this race is marred by a fair bit of interference and there are a few unlucky runners, and one that should have won will run on late. Having said that the speed looks to be quite genuine this year, with 4-SECOND EFFORT (wide), 10-MR MAKE BELIEVE pushing to the lead, and 7-CENTENNIAL PARK, 9-MOMENT OF CHANGE (wide), 13-INSTINCTION, 14-MISTER MILTON all likely to race handy. With quite a few on pacers drawn outside barriers it is just a matter of how hard these ones work early and if they get caught wide or not. Despite the likely speed, still quite keen to have something each way here at odds on 4-SECOND EFFORT. Just a matter of how much gets used up crossing from outside barrier, or if he gets caught wide Really liked his last few runs and just prefer to be up and running on the speed in these races, and well, kinda hoping it is doing to bucket down, so might take the $17 based on the weather. 3-WE'RE GONNA ROCK the main danger, speed on here is going to suit, has the right form lines and this spring might be his grand coming out. Come you come out if you have no love luggage ?. Respect 12-THAT'S THE ONE who will be suited by the speed and run on late if the breaks come and looks much better value than the favourite the 9-MOMENT OF CHANGE, who we just prefer to risk in such a big even field at around $4. And don’t leave out 10-MR MAKE BELIEVE, especially if the rain comes, despite the rise in class think he will do something at odds today. Plenty of value here and keen to spread some win bets around these 4 runners. One to risk: 9-MOMENT OF CHANGE 1st W=$4.10 Roughie: 10-MR MAKE BELIEVE The Key: Watch for the lighter weighted runners. RESULTS: Form analysis if off with the firm track , and even more off when the one we wrote off 9-MOMENT OF CHANGE crosses easily from an outside barrier and really never looks like being beaten. Solid runs the placegetters 3-WE'RE GONNA ROCK and 6-SOLZHENITSYN both 2nd up and up in distance and follow both this spring. |
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