|
| CAULFIELD: SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES - 29th Sept 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Well here we are back at Caulfield again after the debacle that was racing last week. We still don’t understand why they split up one of the best and most under rated meetings of the year, the Underwood/Rupert Clarke/Naturalism/Guineas Preludes into these two meetings. Also means double the work for us ! Big difference here is, of course, being a feature meeting the rail is going to be TRUE. Shame it didn’t happen last week. The rail was out 9M last week, the best ground was out about 45M and there was a great path down the straight if you could find it - just behind the grand stand. Fair bit of rain over Weds to Sat, including some decent storms, as of Friday morning track has improved to a DEAD(5), but plenty more rain forecast Friday night and Saturday so think we will be back to slow track come race day. So like last week this track is likely to stay genuinely wet and looking at a slow track with maybe some improvement during the day with the sun forecast to come out. Should be plenty of fresh ground and we should get even racing here today, but might just tend towards on pace wet trackers, especially if the sun comes out and the track starts to improve. Hopefully this track will be on the improve and the meeting won’t be torn apart by scratchings, difficult to line up odds 3 days out. This is still a pretty interesting program, there are a few shorties, who should probably win though and a few decent each way bets. Searching for value runners again as always as there is no glory in tipping $2.50 winners. We are wearing our mug punter tag firmly and proudly this week, we have ended up backing CHIARAMONTE, BONNE NUIT and BONARIA all of whom we have backed and tipped already this spring – but they just all look well suited so prepared to be a total mug and give them another chance. RESULTS: The rain stays away and we end up on a GOOD(3) track which throws the chances of some of the wet trackers we have tipped. Track races evenly and every horse has its chance. The tips put in a premiership winning performance, with 4 winners on top and 6 winners in the top three selections - including three winners at double figure odds. We actually find the first 5 legs of the Big Six in the first 2 selections, with the supplementary dividend paying $10,000 with Any Other Runner in the last leg - which the favourite wins anyway. But somehow, somehow, the Betting Portfolio can't snare a profit - we were unlucky though snaring 1st and 3rd in a few quinellas. BEST BET: Race 6: 6-CHIARAMONTE $10 WIN 3rd W=$3.80 QUINELLA: Race 6: 6-CHIARAMONTE, 4-IT IS WRITTEN x $3 3rd 6-CHIARAMONTE W=$3.80, 1st 4-IT IS WRITTEN W=$6.50 QUINELLA: Race 6: 6-CHIARAMONTE, 7-CAVALLO NERO x $2 3rd 6-CHIARAMONTE W=$3.80 Been eagerly waiting for this one to pop up again and pretty keen to have a decent bash at it. Lightly raced, good win strike rate, only missed the place once in eleven starts. Both runs this time in have been excellent, 1st up down the straight led most of the way exposed, and last start got caught up on a fast on pace speed, kicked clear in the straight but got run down by a Group 1 sprinter. Should be able to take more of a sit on the speed here, should handle it wet and looks the one to beat. Back straight out and the $4.80 looks good odds for the best bet of the day and try for some extra value with quinellas with the main danger the (4) and the perpetual place getter the (7). If Glen Boss can get 7-CAVALLO NERO to finally win one he can celebrate for the rest of spring for all we care. Keen to have a serious bet on this one. RESULTS: This really looked close to a good thing and a great bet at the odds on offer. Jumped on speed and just got challenged a bit by one on its inside, cornered and kicked clear, but got run down in the straight again. Repeat performance of last run. The main danger and 2nd pick knocked off the Best Bet of the Day, but we had the quinella covered till the last few strides. Unlucky not to get a collect here. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 4-BONNE NUIT $5 EW 4th W=$13.80 Oh dear we are tipping her again – but really think you can make a case for her today. Her form last few months has been outstanding, Flemington win over 2000M was excellent when swooped past the whole field on the turn and held them off for the length of the straight. Then got too far back and worked home well here in the Heatherlie, before looming but not being able to get to her preferred outside running at Flemington 2 starts back. Wasn’t disgraced last start at MV in a Group race and just looks really well placed here with a claim. Drawn outside which is the key to her, she doesn’t like being inside runners and most importantly she strikes a slow track for the first time since her big Flem win. Should sit off these and come hard late with a clear run in a small field. Wasn’t going to keep tipping her, but just looks so well suited here and like the $8 or so each way. RESULTS: Track firms up which is against her chances, races erratically again but well beaten into 4th. OK -we are definitely dropping off now. Promise ! BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 14-BONARIA $4 EW X Always like to have a go at something at odds in the feature race and the key to that race is always the lower weighted horses.. This one is fitter for the two runs in, which have both been excellent and should really be ready to go here, and there should be enough speed to let her run on – maybe wouldn’t want to settle too far back though. Genuine wet tracker too and definitely worth something each way at the $15 on offer – expect her to drift on the day too as moves come for various spruik horses. RESULTS: Drops well back and never figures - very out of character run. BEST PLACE: Race 4: 9-LORD DURANTE $2 WIN $5 PLACE 3rd W=$10.70, P=$3.00 = 3 x 5 = $15 This race is dominated by two short priced favourites, the 5-BASS STRAIT and the 13-DESERT WIZARD. And fair enough two, both of them put in huge runs at WFA in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes last start, in fact the (5) should have gone close to winning had he got a clear run on the rails. So most likely one of those two will win, but the one that is going along really well is the (9). Placed 11 from 15 starts, definitely handles a wet track, fitter for the 3 runs in and they have all been stepping up in distance each start and just looks ready to do something here. Will race on speed from good barrier too and put himself into the race at the right time. The $17 the win, $4.20 the place looks good odds for this one, but realistically one of the favourites will probably win this so looking at more a place bet. RESULTS: The favourite 5-BASS STRAIT wins and our place bet just falls into 3rd place - which was very lucky indeed, saving us from a wipe out. QUINELLA: Race 7: 6-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG, 8-MARWOOD x $2.50 1st 6-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG W=$13.00 QUINELLA: Race 7: 6-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG, 4-LONG JOHN x $2.50 1st 6-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG W=$13.00, 3rd 4-LONG JOHN W=$2.70 The Guineas Prelude is always a great betting race and more often than not something steps up here from the provincials and gets really well backed – assuming this year it will be the (8) who has been flying in his country wins. The (4) is the one with the best city form. But the value runner here is probably the (6) at around $12, who hasn’t done much wrong in his 3 starts to date and should roll along right on the speed here and get every chance. Might find one better, so back with quinellas with the two favoured runners. RESULTS: Spot on the money here - top pick gets perfect sit on the speed and gets up at nice odds. The 4-LONG JOHN flies late and just misses the quinella - again a bit stiff not to get a collect here. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 8-HUNGER at around $4.80 6th W=$4.40 fav Lightly raced one that goes OK and handles it wet, but has drawn barrier (16) here in a big even field of stayers and will either have to sit out wide, drop back or work to the lead. Total non betting race anyway in that something silly will almost certainly pop up and win in a field with close to no form, so easier option is to just lay the favourite and let the field run for you. RESULTS: Drops back and isn't far off them but never a winning chance so a non stress lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. DAILY DOUBLE: Races 6,8: 4,6 /5,9,11(scr),14,19(scr) x 50 cents = $5. SCR $1 1st 4-IT IS WRITTEN w=$6.50 / X The Daily Double should pay OK with a big field in the feature race, so take the top two picks in Race 6, which includes the best bet of the day, 6-CHIARAMONTE which we are really keen on and go wide including some value runners in the Rupert Clarke (5),(9),(11),(14),(19). Note that the (19) is an emergency so if it doesn’t get a run, or one of the others is scratched, swap in the (16). RESULTS: Two scratchings, get the first leg nicely, but not in the finish in the 2nd leg. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $16 NET: $-34 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 3-MAY’S DREAM, 2-THE HUNTRESS, 5-SUAVITO Race 2: 4-BONNE NUIT, 6-GREEN ROLLER, 1-ORIENTAL RUBY Race 3: 5-SUPREME WARRIOR, 14-PHANTOM BREW, 6-AERONWY Race 4: 5-BASS STRAIT, 9-LORD DURANTE, 13-DESERT WIZARD Race 5: 11-NOTICE RECEIVED, 3-JADE MARAUDER, 5-ROSE PATTERN Race 6: 6-CHIARAMONTE, 4-IT IS WRITTEN, 7-CAVALLO NERO Race 7: 6-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG, 8-MARWOOD, 4-LONG JOHN Race 8: 14-BONARIA, 5-FERLAX, 11-LIDARI |
 |
|
| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-MAY’S DREAM 1st W=$2.40 2-THE HUNTRESS SCR 5-SUAVITO 3rd W=$3.30 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-BONNE NUIT 6-GREEN ROLLER 1-ORIENTAL RUBY |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-SUPREME WARRIOR 14-PHANTOM BREW 1st W=$14.20 *** nice value winner *** 6-AERONWY SCR |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-BASS STRAIT 1st W=$3.20 9-LORD DURANTE 3rd W=$10.70 13-DESERT WIZARD |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-NOTICE RECEIVED 1st W=$15.30 ** nice value winner on top to kick off the quaddie *** 3-JADE MARAUDER SCR 5-ROSE PATTERN |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-CHIARAMONTE 3rd W=$3.80 4-IT IS WRITTEN 1st W=$6.50 7-CAVALLO NERO |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG 1st W=$13.00 *** another nice value winner *** 8-MARWOOD 4-LONG JOHN 3rd W=$2.70 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-BONARIA 5-FERLAX 11-LIDARI SCR |
| RACE 8: SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES GROUP 1 1400M |
| Tips: 14-BONARIA 5-FERLAX 11-LIDARI SCR |
| Others: 9,19,16,18 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 6-BUDRIGUEZ, 10-FONTELINA Handy: 3-SOLZHENITSYN, 4-LUCKYGRAY , 5-FERLAX , 12-PAGO ROCK , 15-THY , 16-DANY THE FOX, 18-STRAWBERRY BOY Back: 1-LINTON, 2-DECEMBER DRAW, 7-TEMPLE OF BOOM , 8-REBEL DANE, 9-SPEEDINESS, 11-LIDARI, 13-YOSEI, 14-BONARIA, 17-MUTUAL TRUST, 19-PERON (emerg) Chances: 5-FERLAX is a very lightly raced one on the up and would still have a lot of career improvement to come. Went from a Sale 0-68 race to a Group 1 Australian Guineas in the Autumn –as you do. Fitter for the 2 runs in, both runs have been excellent – running on well 1st up and then worked home nicely out wide here in the Memsie to beat all but one in a very high quality field. Pretty hard to knock that form. Should be right on at peak today, drawn an inside barrier, can probably take a nice handy sit just behind the speed and should be peaking right at the right time. Has the class to win this. Looks the one to beat. Strong chance. 9-SPEEDINESS has been threatening for a few years to win a nice race and finally did last start when the fast speed suited his strong late finish. Drawn out here but that is good for him, as he is definitely a drop back and finish hard late horse. Wet track form was a while ago but looks OK. Maintains a pretty solid winning strike rate. Likely to start solid each way odds again despite the last start win and will mainly come down to a matter of how fast they go and if they are running on OK. Rough chance. 4th W=$10.70 11-LIDARI has come back in fine form with two fantastic runs this time in. Huge effort 1st up when came from last to storm home and upset his more fancied stable mates. Then right in the finish in the Dato Tan when he was poking through on the inside and looked like he was going to be the winner about 50 M out. Showed a bit of potential in his first Australian campaign when he was ridden forward, but does seem to be better ridden cold at the back of the field. Interesting that they seemed to have switched from a Cups campaign with this one, to the feature miles and a bit unusual to have horses dropping back from WFA 1600M races into this race – normally they go up in distance. Yet to strike a wet track in Australia, but seemed OK overseas. Hard to knock current form. Drawn outside and likely to drop back here, but will get a clear crack at them down the middle of the track – question will be if that is the best ground ?, and suspect he may just run on too late after something sitting closer to the lead has pinched this. But going really well though and has to go in as a solid chance. Chance. SCR 14-BONARIA is one of our favourite horses going around at the moment, mainly cause she keeps winning or placing at nice odds, time and time again, and you can hardly complain when they do that. Very much under rated and has a wonderful finishing burst at the end of these 1400M and 1600M races. Looks perfect suited 3rd up into this. 2 runs this time in have both been good, finishing really hard late here 1st up, and then just gave a few good ones too much of a head start when again finishing on strongly at Flemington in what could be a pretty strong form race. Should be at peak now, and she is one of the few here that genuinely handles it wet and probably even better in the wet. Has proven herself at group level in mares class and probably up to this lot. Strong finishing wet tracker with no weight 3rd up in this – looks a great bet. Strong chance. 16-DANY THE FOX is a very consistent and professional type who always seems to lob into the box seat in his races and give himself every chance. Pretty good win strike rate and placed 6 from 8 over the 1400M. Seems to have a huge army of fans backing him, and continually starts way under the odds on the tote – almost certain he opened up even money favourite last start at Flemington. He puts himself into the right spot every race, but, and this may just be us, he just seems a little one paced when he comes to the business end of the race. But really, he has everything going for him in this race. 3rd up, fitter for the 2 runs in, had the 1400M run, drawn a perfect barrier, will sit just behind the speed, at the bottom of the weights. Lots and lots of ticks. Worth noting G.Boss has jumped off to ride another one as it comes with more chances of over exuberant winning celebrations. Even though he has wet track form it has been in much lower grade races so he is still a bit of an unknown. Probably just the class here is the question mark. Everything is perfectly set up for him here today, may even start better than $3 for once with the big field !, but just get the feeling he will find one better. Will be in the finish though. Chance. 18-STRAWBERRY BOY has always had a huge reputation on him – and to be honest we always thought he was very over rated. Although he won his two Melbourne runs last preparation they were hardly impressive. Kicked on the home turn here last start and looked home for all money, but folded up and got swamped by his stablemates in the last 50M. Guess he was carrying weight last start and drops to the minimum here, and meets the (11) 2.5 kgs better off. Love that he is still nominated for both the Cox Plate – and the Patinack Farm Classic Sprint – now that’s called having an each way bet. Easy winner only try on a wet track. Few things in his favour today – will get perfect on speed run here from barrier and there are always lots of drop back hard luck stories in this race – so he will put himself into the race at the right time. And for once you are going to actually get decent odds about him. Likely to be in the finish. Chance. 19-PERON (emerg) is the emergency but one you want to keep an eye out for. Lightly raced with good winning strike rate, and real eye catching finishing on hard late 1st up. 2nd up and up 200M here. Has solid wet track form and 4 wins from 5 over the 1400M. Only missed the place once in 9 starts. May just drop back here from outside barrier, but looks on the up and last start run was seriously good so remember to include her if she gets into the field. Chance. SCR Place: 3-SOLZHENITSYN is a proven quality miler who is starting to creep up in the weights in these races due to his sheer consistency. 5 times winner over the 1400M. 2nd up into this, but solid run over 1400M 1st up in Sydney. Placed in this race last year and won the Toorak the start after, so does seem to go well here. Worth nothing those races was carrying 52kgs / 53kgs though. Drawn a nice barrier and he does tend to settle closer to the speed these days which is good. The weight and the genuine wet track is going to be the question mark here – he does look questionable on slow ground. Should get a perfect run here, and has the class, so won’t be far off though. Prefer place. 3rd W=$7.00 7-TEMPLE OF BOOM is best known as a strong finishing Flemington straight track specialist. Fitter for the 2 runs in, both have been excellent and right in the finish both times. Place getters coming through the Bobbie Lewis have a really good record into this race. Has genuine wet track form as well and is one of few here who are going to be suited by wet ground. Best known over 1200M though and the 1400M is the question today – 3 starts no wins – though if you look closely two of those starts were beaten less than 3L in Group 1 1400M races. Just a little worried he might get buried back in the field on the rails from barrier 1 in a big field. Having said that he is in form, gets it wet, and has form in the right races so probably want to keep him safe in this. Rough chance. 8-REBEL DANE is a Sydney visitor with a huge spruik on him, and started a ridiculous $2.60 favourite in a tough even 18 horse Flemington straight race last start. Loomed up at the right time too, might have just got a little lost down the straight. Fitter for the 2 runs in and the Bobbie Lewis is often the best form race for this. Ran a narrow 2nd at only start on a heavy track, and has a slow track win, so seems to handle the wet ground OK. Question is going to be the barrier here – and whether they have to ride him back and for luck in a big field which might prove tricky. Worth noting that he is meeting the same horses who beat him home last start – and they will start better odds yet again? Probably won’t be far off them, but suspect he is going to start really poor value in a big field, especially on the tote. Prefer to take him on again today. Prefer place. 1st W=$6.30 Sacking: 1-LINTON never quite lived up to his 3YO spruik when it looked liked he could have been anything, but seems to have found his niche now he has been kept to the shorter trips rather than being prepared as a stayer. Sterling winter form stringing together 3 wins on end, including the sneaky, sneaky, sneaky, sneak along the rails win at long odds in the Stradbroke. Interesting that he is being set for the feature sprints this year – but kicking off 1st up at 1400M before dropping back in distance ! Rather unusual. He won 2nd up in Adel over 1400M last time in, and was unlucky in a Dato Tan over 1600M 1st up the preparation before that so actually his first up form over these sorts of trips isn’t as bad as it looks. Drawn a nice middle barrier, should be plenty of speed in the big field to allow him to run on. Against him is that top weights don’t normally win this race, it is definitely a light weights race, and he is a big question mark on wet ground. No 2-DECEMBER DRAW is very good when right but there has to be a question mark over how he is going. Been struggling with injury since smashing 2011 spring campaign when he got injured in the Caulfield Cup when a short priced favourite. Had a long break before last spring where he ran a few good races and almost got back to his best. Another year off, so really must have some serious issues, and just an even on pace run in the Makybe Diva 1st up. Dropping back in class 2nd up here – and also back in distance which is rather unusual as you would have thought the more distance the better for him. This is the first time he has raced under handicap conditions for a long while, and first time ever he has raced under 1600M – does look an unusual placement. Brave new world for him. Drawn inside, likely to drop back over the shorter trip in a race that often has hard luck stories, unknown on wet tracks and at the top of the weights – plus really just can’t be sure how he is going. Passing. 4-LUCKYGRAY is a smart WA performer who has been struggling to find his niche over here. 4 times winner over the 1400M and fitter for the 2 runs in, he ran on pretty well 1st up down the straight, and then was outclassed in a very smart field in the Memsie Stakes here. Largely unknown in wet ground, though he seemed to go OK in it at only try at Flemington in the Aurie Star and wasn’t far off last year in the Liston when was well backed to start favourite. At the top of the weights isn’t a plus in this race. Drawn a nice barrier and probably got some improvement coming but think want to see him be genuinely competitive in a race over here before we get on – hard to work out what level he fits in at. Passing. 6-BUDRIGUEZ is a very consistent when right front running Adelaide sprinter miler. And has front running guru D.Gauci aboard for the ride. Good Caulfield record. Good 1400M record. Only ever start on a wet track was 2 starts back and he did race poorly so he might be a query in the ground. 3rd up into this and should be ready to improve, but hard to get enthused about his 2 runs this time in -although he did carry a big weight last start. Likely to push forward here and is best when he gets his own way in front – and not sure that is going to happen here. Will probably improve today, but hard to put him in just at the moment. No 10-FONTELINA can be a little hard to catch – but is very good when right. Hasn’t really gone on since that well backed Flemington straight win on Derby Day last year. Though it is interesting to note the first and only time he dropped out of Group 1 level races he won a Listed race at Scone – he has been contesting some very serious races since then. Hard to line up his wet form as most of it is in those Group 1 races, but does look a slight query in the wet. Drawn inside and likely to press forward here. Even effort first up down the straight but meeting plenty here who beat him home last start. Back into a Group 1 race too. Passing. 2nd W=$20.30 12-PAGO ROCK has been up for a while though and he is usually thereabouts in these races, but his form does seem to have tapered off just a little. 3 times Caulfield winner. Maintains a super impressive 50% win strike rate. Kicked off during winter in fine form and his run to chase down a leader who had kicked here in the Monash was excellent. Been thereabouts last 3 starts, over raced in the Liston and then didn’t get a clear run when trying to sneak up on the rails last start at Flemington. Been racing at WFA or carrying big weights so actually nicely in here on 54kgs. Drawn out a little and does like to go forward so probably gets caught wide here on a decent speed. Main problem is he is unknown on wet tracks and pretty sure he is a very big question mark on wet tracks so hard to have here. Suspect he might drift out to much longer odds than he should be though, so maybe sneak him in if you are looking for a big trifecta or first four collect, otherwise no. Passing. 13-YOSEI is a permanent fixture in these sort of races, normally out the back, finding trouble and running on late. When we asked people to nominate non-winners on Facebook a few weeks ago she was a run away winner of the #nonwinnerhashtag award. Last win was June 2011. Has to be said though, some of her best form has been at Caulfield, even though it doesn’t look it on stats – but she won the Thousand Guineas here and probably should have won last year’s Toorak Handicap – when – wait for it – she didn’t have the best of luck. 3rd up and should be ready to show something today. 2 runs this time in though has been pretty ordinary so bit hard to get enthused. Funny could have sworn she was a wet tracker – but her wet track stats don’t look that great ? Drawn very wide and likely to drop well back, but maybe she might get a clear run from the outside barrier – so no excuses this time ? Hard to have her on form, and even if she did have form – you would probably look over her on reputation alone regardless. No. 15-THY is a bit of a hit and miss type horse, she either storms from last and wins – or does nothing. Huge effort 1st up when came from a clear last over the unsuitable 1200M to swoop past the whole field, then was well backed but slightly disappointing at Flemington 2nd up. Seems to handle wet tracks just fine. Tends to drop back over the short trips but does lead or race on pace at a mile and further so bit hard to know where she is going to settle today. Nice light weight though and definitely has ability, just basically, can’t work her out so find it hard to justify backing her. Passing. 17-MUTUAL TRUST is an overseas import who has been struggling to fit in Down Under. Yet to show much in 3 starts and 2 preparations down here, but was an eye catcher finishing on really hard late last start at Flemington 1st up, and gets in at the bottom of the weights here. Drawn outside and likely to drop well back, and will need them to run along and them to be running on OK down the outside like they were last week – which is unlikely. Will probably run on OK at odds again, but hard to have as a betting proposition. No Summary: This is always a great betting race with a big field, but it is also a race where it is really important to look at the history of winners. This race is famous for horses having bad luck back in the big field, getting held up and running on too late – and sure we will hear that story again come Sunday. So maybe be wary of those who are going to drop really far back and give some smart on pace ones a decent start, or look for those who are going to lob on speed and sprint clear at the right time whilst the backmarkers come home – too late. In a big field there is always more than half of the field with light weights and normally one of them goes OK. Looking back over the last 20 years only 3 horses have carried over 56kgs to win this race – although obviously keep in mind that the minimums keep going up. 9 winners out of the last 20 have carried 53kgs or less. It is really hard for horses up the top of the weights to win this race. 7 of the last 20 winners have come through the Bobbie Lewis – most of them being place getters in that race. What is really interesting is that a massive 16 of the last 20 winners have been last start winners or place getters – you simply need to be in peak form to win a tough competitive feature Group 1 in a big field. So look for lightly weighted last start place getters to feature here. In a big field you would think the speed would be genuine, with 6-BUDRIGUEZ, 10-FONTELINA the most likely to set the speed and 12-PAGO ROCK, 16-DANY THE FOX, 18-STRAWBERRY BOY sitting handy behind them. Largely going to be a question of if they can run on OK with the rail back to the TRUE here, but suspect you won’t want to get too far back in this. 5-FERLAX, 16-DANY THE FOX, 18-STRAWBERRY BOY the most likely to get perfect on speed sits and suspect they will be in the finish at the business end of the race. In a big field reckon it is always worth looking for one at odds, and we are going to push for one of our favourite horses (yet again), the 14-BONARIA with no weight, on a suitable wet track and finishing hard late at odds – as long as she doesn’t give these too big a head start – would be good to see her racing just past midfield. Just looks ready to ping here with the 2 runs in, both of which were excellent. Not a last start place getter – but was in a photo for 3rd so we will count that. Need to respect the two coming back from great WFA runs, the 5-FERLAX who beat home an awful lot of good horses here in the Memsie, and can get a good run from an inside barrier, and the 11-LIDARI who seems to have gone up a notch this time in and went close to winning the Dato Tan. Happy to back these three to win in a big field at nice odds, and take a quinella with the other main chances, the 9-SPEEDINESS and the 19-PERON (emerg). One to risk: 8-REBEL DANE 1st W=$6.30 Roughie: 19-PERON (emerg) SCR The Key: Lightly weighted last start place getter. RESULTS: Track comes up quite firm which stuffs up the form for this race. After a great tipping day no surprise that the one we wanted to take on got up and stung us - bit foolish in hindsight seeing he came through the Bobbie Lewis which is the best form guide for this race. Not much between them at all in the finish, and the 9-SPEEDINESS unlucky not to win after being held up early in the straight. |
|
