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FLEMINGTON : STAKES DAY - 10th Nov 2007

Track: GOOD - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 6M

Betting Portfolio ($100): Perfect weather and a good track, track has been racing very fairly this week. Rail stays in the same position as Thurs, where the tendency was that they swing out wide like they did on the 2nd half of the program. Interesting that with the camber on the home turn now jockeys don’t seem scared to make their runs early – and looks like we will see more and more of the wall of horses spread out around the home turn. Generally want to be on runners on today, so look for strong finishers out wide and risk those who have drawn inside. Outside rail fastest down straight, some big fields though, so try and avoid those drawn extremely wide as unlikely they are going to get through. Not a particularly good betting day, races are either wide open, or have short priced favourites – expect the 2 Lloyd Williams runners in Race 3 and Race 8 will start very short. Still, sure we can find something to bet on… RESULTS : We made a bit of a stuff up here. Rail was actually out 9M, and that made a huge difference. Usually rail is out 6M on this day and runners on dominate. With the rail out 9M the herd mentality of jockeys continued to try and go wide in the straight, till they finally worked out there was nothing wrong with the inside. Track raced evenly, probably favoured on pacers, but lots of funny results were partially because jockeys had read the pattern wrong. BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 14-ROMAN SQUIRE $20 EW Very keen on this in the main race, probably not going to get as attractive odds as we thought, but should be a little over $10. RESULTS : Gets too far back and making good ground at the end BEST EACH WAY : Race 2: 4-BELLA CASSANI $10 EW Absolute stack of speed in this race, this one is a strong finisher fitter for the 2 runs in and the run over the 1400M. Ran home well 1st up, then was dominant leaders track last start when fair effort. Drawn out and should finish on hard. RESULTS : Ended up back on inside (from an outside barrier), struggling to get through a wall of horses and not far off them. Worth following. BEST EACH WAY : Race 4: 7-FENTON HALL $10 EW Very impressive winning 2 starts back, then Ok run at MV when did a few things wrong. Blinkers go on today, well drawn and strong finisher who will be better suited by bigger track. RESULTS : Did nothing QUINELLA : Race 9: 6-FLYING OBJECT x 15-JEUNIQUE x $5 QUINELLA : Race 9: 6-FLYING OBJECT x 17-PIETRO VANNUCCI (emerg) x $5 QUINELLA : Race 9: 6-FLYING OBJECT x 8-OKAY OKY x $5 Last race is wide open, but let’s try to get out on the last race of the week with a value quinella. Big field, stack of speed, so let’s back the strong finishers. The (6) hasn’t raced over 1400M before, but a strong finisher and last 8 runs have all been in Group or Listed company so will appreciate the class drop. RESULTS : Track was favouring on pacers by end of the day, so these tips were hopeless. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. QUINELLA Race 2: 4-BELLA CASSANI, 9-JUSTSAY SUMTHINK x $5 Take one of best each way bets of day with 2nd pick, who was been racing very well and flew home last start. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $0 NET : $-100 RESULTS : Day of upsets, and a long walk home as the tips fail to flatter.

The Tips: Race 1: 17-BARWON EXPRESS (emerg), 12-SAYAPRAYERFORME, 11-GEE UP, 8-JERRYMAC Race 2: 4-BELLA CASSANI, 9-JUSTSAY SUMTHINK, 16-OH EIGHT HUNDRED Race 3: 7-EXTEND, 5-PACINO, 2-BLUE COLLAR JACK Race 4: 7-FENTON HALL, 2-TESKARA, 1-EL MANDON Race 5: 3-GOLD EDITION, 4-MISS ANDRETTI, 5-CATECHUCHU Race 6: 14-ROMAN SQUIRE, 11-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 2-WONDERFUL WORLD Race 7: 4-POST THYME, 12-TICK OF LIGHT, 1-ANAMATO Race 8: 13-COMPLETION, 7-SENTIRE, 9-JUKEBOX JOHNNY Race 9: 6-FLYING OBJECT, 15-JEUNIQUE, 17-PIETRO VANNUCCI (emerg), 8-OKAY OKY

RACE 1: RESULTS

Tips: 17-BARWON EXPRESS 12-SAYAPRAYERFORME 11-GEE UP

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 4-BELLA CASSANI 9-JUSTSAY SUMTHINK 16-OH EIGHT HUNDRED

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 7-EXTEND 1st W=$2.00 5-PACINO 3rd W=$4.70 2-BLUE COLLAR JACK

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 7-FENTON HALL 2-TESKARA 1-EL MANDON 2nd W=$3.10

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 3-GOLD EDITION 2nd W=$3.40 4-MISS ANDRETTI 1st W=$1.50 5-CATECHUCHU Quinella : $1.50 Woo Hoo

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 14-ROMAN SQUIRE 11-WEEKEND HUSSLER 2-WONDERFUL WORLD

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 4-POST THYME 12-TICK OF LIGHT 1-ANAMATO

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 13-COMPLETION #3rd W=$2.40 7-SENTIRE SCR 9-JUKEBOX JOHNNY

RACE 9: RESULTS

Tips: 6-FLYING OBJECT 15-JEUNIQUE 17-PIETRO VANNUCCI

RACE 6: DIFFERENT SPONSOR EVERY YEAR STAKES 1600M GROUP 1

Tips: 14-ROMAN SQUIRE 11-WEEKEND HUSSLER 2-WONDERFUL WORLD

Others: 12, 5, 3 Pace: GENUINE Leaders : 10-LORD OF THE DANCE Handy : 2-WONDERFUL WORLD, 5-SONIC QUEST, 7-ORANGE COUNTY, 8-SHINZIG, 11-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 13-MR BARITONE, 16-TEARS I CRY Back : 1-NICONERO, 3-LAD OF THE MANOR, 4-UNDUE, 6-VALEDICTUM, 9-DR NIPANDTUCK, 12-BIRD DANCER, 14-ROMAN SQUIRE, 15-ELBRUS Chances: 2-WONDERFUL WORLD was ridden a treat in a slowly run non event of a Cox Plate, kicked on the home turn and almost pinched it. Has really found form last 3 starts and does hold form once he finds it. Stable has been on a freak run with limited ammunition last couple of weeks. Does race handy and those racing on pace often get swamped in this race over the last 100M. Bit of a tricky ride as will need to scout to the middle of the track, but at least drawn out a little to do so. Have to respect Cox Plate place getter going into this, does get a weight penalty for that, again just don’t generally like getting on top weights in this race, but definitely a chance. 5-SONIC QUEST has a huge boom on him after thrashing them last start, and trainer has even said may be aimed at the Cox Plate next year. Form from that race has held up. Fitter for 3 runs in and should improve even more with the run over the 1600M. Looks a top liner on the way up. The trick here is the barrier, does like to race handy, has drawn inside barrier, this race is just about always won by those finishing hard down the outside and almost certain to be stuck on the inside here. Sounds cruel, cause form is top rate, but that’s almost enough to totally put us off him. Chance, with some pretty big reservations. 11-WEEKEND HUSSLER is the boom horse of the spring and great that they have continued on with him after the Caulfield Guineas, instead of laminating him and putting him in their scrapbooks. Been dominant all spring winning by serious margins, amazing effort in the Caulfield Guineas when went for home 3 wide on the turn and thought was “jockey has stuffed this up”, but he knew what he had and won easily. Showed versatility to win down the straight last Sat. Swapping straight 1200M runs and 1600m runs often works well. Probably races on speed here, out a little wide, but you will probably want to be making your run wide in the straight. But this is a totally different ball game, 3YO into open company for the 1st time, and not just any open company, but tough competitive Group 1 feature mile. Not sure of the records of 3YO in this race. Bottom line is, looks the one to beat, but if you want to bet you should get odds that reflect the challenge before him today, and think that’s around $3.00- $3.50. Suspect he will start ridiculously short on the tote (< $2.50) and that looks poor value to us. One to beat, not the one to back ! 12-BIRD DANCER is really consistent and deserves to pick up one of these races. Freshened up into 1200M sprint last start couldn’t really expect much. Rupert Clarke run before that was excellent – was flying home on the fence, would’ve gone close to running a place and got almost put over the fence looking for a narrow gap. Strong finisher who likes the speed on and suited in this sort of race with no weight. Hasn’t won past 1400M though and has been up a very long time and out partying all week. Think he is a great value chance, and a genuine rough chance, and put him the multiples if you are looking for a big collect. Rough. 2nd W=$89.70, P=$13.70 *** nice rough chance *** 14-ROMAN SQUIRE is well drawn and fitter for the 3 runs in. Finished on well 1st up down the straight, got ridiculously too far back at Caulf in race dominated by on pacers and again finished on well, and very eye catching run here last week when was really storming home over the 1400M. Strong finishing back markers down in weight often win this race, as do horses coming through last week’s race. Track should be favouring runners on too. Will be suited by the extra distance, the pace should be strong enough to allow him to run in, and like him cause it looks like he has been set for this and is going to peak today. Rating him on top, happy to have a decent each way bet at the odds on offer as he ticks all the boxes as to the type of horse we want to back in this race. Excellent chance. Place: 1-NICONERO is very consistent in these types of events – just loves the handicap 1400/1600M races. Ran 2nd in this race last year at big odds. Racing pretty consistently this time in, obviously forget the Cox Plate run, before that right in the finish (as he usually is), and meets the (2) slightly better on weights, and beat him home in both those runs. Does have a history of finding trouble (no, there is no Ben Cousins gag here). Drawn out and can probably drop back and run on in this which is more his style of racing, and always want to be on the runners on in this race. Just can’t see him carrying top weight to win this – this race is usually won by those down in the weights. Place 3-LAD OF THE MANOR was pretty damm disappointing in the Cox Plate (yes, we backed it), he was in winkers 1st time and over raced from the outset, before finding nothing when the pressure was on. Has an excellent record this track, and this distance, and worth noting he came off an ordinary run in last year’s Cox Plate to run a eye catching and fast finishing 5th in this race, when carrying more weight. Was just winding up at the end of the Toorak and did look ready to return to old form. Was very disappointed with Cox Plate run, last year’s was probably better as he did find trouble, but you would have to still consider him a rough chance based on Toorak run and last year’s run in this. Very rough only. 6-VALEDICTUM has a good record in this race, finishing 3rd last year and winning the year before that. Best form is here at Flem. Fair effort here last week, does drop in weight (but the limit has dropped as well). Form this time in is actually better than last year’s lead up form, has been thereabouts in a few of the lead up runs. Drawn out and can be ridden cold and finish hard. Don’t think form is good enough to win this, but has to go in as a place chance. 10-LORD OF THE DANCE was very impressive winning on pace and running away from them at Caulf 2 starts back, then only a far effort when loomed up but couldn’t go on here last week. Was stuck on inside, and that wasn’t the best going, but another on pacer stuck on well in that race to finish 2nd, so not much of an excuse. Yet to be unplaced over the 1600M. Looks the only leader here and probably can dictate this race, but drawn out and will need to work to get across and leaders don’t normally win this race. Still lightweight, and win before that was impressive, so maybe sticks on for a place. Probably won’t be far off them, will kick in the straight and get swamped last 50M. Place 15-ELBRUS is another strong finishing miler who will appreciate the firm track. Carried 2kgs more than the (16) when not much between them last start. Fitter for the 3 runs in and especially the run over the 1600M. Class here is obviously the test, but wouldn’t be surprised to see him running on and not be to far off these. Rough chance. Sacking: 4-UNDUE is as honest as they come, run down the straight last week wasn’t as bad as it looked, he was finishing off OK. Started the spring with a big win 1st up, then form has slipped. Query here is the distance, has not won past 1350M. 2 x 1600M runs were respectable close up 4ths last year in the Toorak and Waterford Crystal. Drawn out is a plus, probably will run better than most people expect and be just behind them, but think these have his measure over the mile. Passing. 7-ORANGE COUNTY is an honest on pacer who has been going along OK. Think he does prefer a bit of give in the ground and this track is likely to be pretty hard by the time this race comes around. Thrashed by the (5) last start at MV, does meet him 2kgs better, but that’s not enough to turn around the margin. To be honest, think he is suspect at a strong 1600M, and this race is always a very genuine mile, so happy to leave him out today. 8-SHINZIG is fitter for the 2 runs in and did run well here last week – and winner often comes through that race. Like that he is fresh on the scene and due to peak today, whereas many of his rivals are at the end of their springs. It is often those down in the weights that win this race. Been racing in NZ and QLD prior to returning this spring, so has plenty of backpacking stories to tell. 7 starts at the 1600M for only 1 placing does not look good – though most have been in feature miles. Raced close to the speed last week, normally does drop back, but can do either. From inside barrier guessing they race forward again, which is not going to be a plus when they swing wide in the straight. On last 2 runs alone would say he was a nice rough chance, barrier and appalling 1600M form means he probably needs to be left out 3rd W=$66.90 9-DR NIPANDTUCK started spring with a boom, when tried as a sprinter, almost toppling one of the best sprinters in the land and running on very stylishly. Form has petered out since stepping up in distance, does get nice weight drop from last start, but still looks safely held against the (5) and the (7) coming out of that race. Had every chance last few against these and hasn’t been good enough – does appear to need it wet for best form. No 13-MR BARITONE is an honest enough miler who has been going along OK in the country. Best form seems to be on track with a bit of give. Will race handy here from inside barrier and does drop substantially in weight going up in class here – carried 56kgs and over last 3 runs. But think he is outclassed in this company. No 16-TEARS I CRY has been racing very consistently throughout this preparation, and right in the finish at every start this time in. Normally races on speed, dropped back here on Tues and went along inside rails, and the winners were coming down the outside, and drops a stack in weight from that run. Well beaten by the (5) at MV. Drawn out wide, does like to go forward, so going to get trapped pretty wide on this, and don’t think run on Tues was quite good enough (despite the big weight). Passing today.1st W=$63.50 Summary: Always a very competitive race, usually the pace is pretty fierce, they swing wide in the straight, there are a stack of hard luck stories and something finishes on strongly out wide or dives through a gap at odds to win. Do like betting in this race, just about always throws up a value winner, so nuts if we are going to go an even money favourite. Last year we had an equal favourite win this, including her there have been only 3 favourites in the last 20 years in this race. Last six winners before last year started at $26, $51, $11, $15, $17 – you would be mad on that not to search for value here, even with a boom 3YO in the field. Last six winners have also all carried under 54kgs. So simple, let’s go for value, peak a strong finisher, down in the weights. Pace here should be genuine enough - 10-LORD OF THE DANCE should cross and lead with a little bit of work, 2-WONDERFUL WORLD, 8-SHINZIG, 11-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 16-TEARS I CRY (wide) should be close enough to put a bit of pressure on. 11-WEEKEND HUSSLER should be able to sit a little wide just off the speed and kick clear in the straight, just a matter of how hard they have gone when the back markers come. Really keen on 14-ROMAN SQUIRE, guessing we get a little over 10-1 (forget the $41 quoted in this mickey mouse markets in the morning papers), strong finisher, about to peak, light weight, comes through the race last week that often throws up the winner of this and if you saw last run would be running to get on this one. 11-WEEKEND HUSSLER the one to beat, but not interested in taking short odds a 3YO 1st time in open company at the end of his campaign, and 2-WONDERFUL WORLD have to respect the Cox Plate run. 12-BIRD DANCER to one to put in if you are looking for a big trifecta or first four. Pretty keen to bet each way on the top pick though. One to risk: 7-ORANGE COUNTY Roughie: 12-BIRD DANCER 2nd W=$89.70, P=$13.70 *** nice rough chance *** RESULTS: Monster upset result !. Honestly, though, you could see it coming. Who on earth would take $2.10 about 11-WEEKEND HUSSLER ?. All the pointers are there in the form comments, this race is just about always won by an outsider, by an outsider down in the weights. It's probably the number one race of the year where you just avoid the favourite at all costs. Whilst the media continued to fall over themselves to push the hyped horse, we did kinda suggest you would be stark raving mad to get on. Found one of the roughies at least.