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FLEMINGTON : STAKES DAY - 8th Nov 2008

Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: IT’S ACTUALLY RAINING ! - Rail: OUT 7M

Betting Portfolio ($100): Rail stays in the 5M position, which is the same as Thursday. Track has raced very fairly this week, though on Oaks Day it was a bit leader-ish, the on pacers seemed to win most races, and it was the same story on Cup Day. Normally, at the end of a long week, this meeting favours runners on, but maybe just keep an eye on things in case the leaders kick on again. There is rain forecast, storms even, so see how much rain comes – the track might chop up and they might be coming out to the middle of the track. Inside rail will be fastest down straight, and the jockeys should’ve worked that out now ! Doubling our betting portfolio again – always plenty to bet on on Stakes Day. RESULTS : Well it did rain for a little rain, but Flemington didn't get much of it. Track races farily, most winners did come down the middle of the track though, and they tended to race a few horses off the rails. Inside rail fastest down straight- which is preferable if you are trying to bet on the straight races. Tips go along OK. BEST BET : Race 9: 7-CAPECOVER $20 WIN 1st W=$4.90 = $98 Eye catching run here last week when was making considerable ground at the end of the race. Last two runs have been good, was mixing form before that, but looks like he is about to run into form. His two main rivals, the (1) and the (2) have been racing very well, but think both only just run out the 2500M – suspect this one might run over the top of them. Always keen to get on them backing up within a week off a good run. Handles it wet if the rains comes, and at around $8 at the moment quite keen to have a ping. RESULTS : This was one of the best bets of Cup Week, starts better odds with the bookies, and great ride as he sits off them, and as predicted finishes over the top of his main rivals. BEST WIN : Race 3: 7-ARLINGTON $20 WIN 3rd W=$5.10 OK – this one owes us. Hard ridden to go to the lead in the Mackinnon last week, and think he probably stuffed up the chances of our pick BARBARICUS. Still ran pretty well, fought on well, finished 5th – so looks extremely well in at the weights here at 54kgs. In fact, he is coming off a Group 1 WFA run, back to 54 kgs in this looks incredibly well weighted – most of his opposition has country form. Drop back to the 1600M should suit, had to lump big weights previously in Sydney and should go forward from barrier in a race with not much speed. RESULTS : Drops back - have to love that after went forward and stuffed up the chances of our runner last week. Works home OK, but might be a bit of a money sucker BEST EACH WAY : Race 7: 6-SNIPER'S BULLET $12.50 EW Definitely want to have something each way on our top pick in the main race. Fitter for 2 runs in, both runs have been excellent, gets weight advantage from last week, and as long as jockey takes a sit and doesn’t go forward again should be right in the finish. RESULTS : Snagged back, probably too far back and made a little ground but never looked likely. BEST ROUGH : Race 4: 9-ESKIMO DAN $ 5 EW SCR $10 Genuine 2000M horse, and quite liked the way this one went in the Cranbourne Cup, he was closing nicely on the line. Should be at peak now with the 4 runs in, and would be good to see him go forward here as he can race handy and there is not much speed in this race. RUNNING DOUBLE : Race 6,7 : 8 /5,6,12,19 x $5 = $20 3rd 8-SUNBURNT LAND W=$4.30 / 2nd 5-SEA BATTLE W=$6.30 Quite happy to have a bet on 8-SUNBURNT LAND to beat the favourite in the sprint race. He is flying, hopelessly unlucky when couldn’t get clear last week, and not much speed for a spring, so don’t be surprised to see him ridden much more forward and making his own luck. Always good to get on them backing up in Cup week off a good run. Take a double with the 3 main chances in the main race – swap in the (9) in the 2nd leg if the (19) dos not get a run. RESULTS : SUNBURNT LAND has every chance, hits the lead but gets claimed. SEA BATTLE huge effort from wide barrier. Double does pay way over with short priced favourite going down in the first leg. LAY OF THE DAY : RACE 5:1-ÉCLAIR FANTASTIC around $3.50 6th W=$3.20 Unbeaten in 3 runs, and huge raps on this one. Did miss start and huge win last start, but today, out to 1400M for the 1st time, previous wins were 1000M/1000M/1200M, and has had 4 weeks between runs up in distance. Not sure how good the ones he beat last time are. Top weight, probably races on speed, seems to be a lot of speed in this race and suspect will set it up for something from behind. This race is often won by some silly maiden coming through fresh on the way up. RESULTS : 1-ÉCLAIR FANTASTIC gets extremely well backed into favourtism, gets perfect run but fails to produce - which is what we were hoping ! TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. QUINELLA : Race 4: 9-ESKIMO DAN, 11-INSTRUCTOR x $2.50 SCR QUINELLA : Race 4: 9-ESKIMO DAN, 12-ROAD TO ROCK x $2.50 SCR, 1st 12-ROAD TO ROCK W=$7.70 Takes some quinellas with our roughie in Race 4 and should be plenty of value. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $113 NET: $+13

The Tips: Race 1: 2-GRAN SASSO, 14-IMASHADOW, 9-BOLD MOMENT Race 2: 5-HANABANANAH, 15-SILKEN APPEAL, 7-HASTY GIRL Race 3: 7-ARLINGTON, 8-GOLD SALUTE, 15-CAN’T WAIT Race 4: 9-ESKIMO DAN, 11-INSTRUCTOR, 12-ROAD TO ROCK Race 5: 4-DRUMBEATS, 10-LIBERTY EDITION, 2-GOLD IN DUBAI Race 6: 8-SUNBURNT LAND, 1-APACHE CAT, 5-TURFFONTEIN Race 7: 6-SNIPER'S BULLET, 5-SEA BATTLE, 12-CONQUERING Race 8: 4-REGGIE, 5-MISS BADOURA, 17-PERMISSION TO LAND (emerg), 6-READY TO LIFT Race 9: 7-CAPECOVER, 1-BAUGHURST, 2-LIGHT VISION Race 10: 12-TEARS ‘N’ TRIUMPH, 5-FRIDAY CREEK, 10-RIGHTFULLY YOURS

RACE 1: RESULTS

Tips: 2-GRAN SASSO 3rd W=$6.80 14-IMASHADOW 2nd W=$5.80 9-BOLD MOMENT

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 5-HANABANANAH 15-SILKEN APPEAL 7-HASTY GIRL

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 7-ARLINGTON 3rd W=$5.10 8-GOLD SALUTE 15-CAN’T WAIT

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 9-ESKIMO DAN SCR 11-INSTRUCTOR 12-ROAD TO ROCK 1st W=$7.70

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 4-DRUMBEATS 1st W=$3.40 10-LIBERTY EDITION 2-GOLD IN DUBAI 3rd W=$10.00

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 8-SUNBURNT LAND 3rd W=$4.30 1-APACHE CAT 5-TURFFONTEIN 2nd W=$22.40

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 6-SNIPER'S BULLET 5-SEA BATTLE 2nd W=$6.30 12-CONQUERING

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 4-REGGIE 5-MISS BADOURA 17-PERMISSION TO LAND

RACE 9: RESULTS

Tips: 7-CAPECOVER 1st W=$4.90 1-BAUGHURST 3rd W=$4.00 2-LIGHT VISION 2nd W=$4.20 Quinella : $10.60 Trifecta : $60.30

RACE 10: RESULTS

Tips: 12-TEARS ‘N’ TRIUMPH 5-FRIDAY CREEK SCR 10-RIGHTFULLY YOURS 1st W=$3.00

RACE 7: EMIRATES STAKES 1600 M GROUP 1

Tips: 6-SNIPER'S BULLET 5-SEA BATTLE 2nd W=$6.30 12-CONQUERING

Others: 19,10,9,3,4 Pace: FAST Leaders : 7-BANK ROBBER, 8-ROYAL DISCRETION, 12-CONQUERING Handy : 1-MENTALITY, 4-MR BARITONE, 6-SNIPER'S BULLET, 15-MIMI LEBROCK, 20-MARCHING Back : 2-NICONERO, 3-ORANGE COUNTY, 5-SEA BATTLE, 9-VALEDICTUM, 10-ALL SILENT, 11-CARGO CULT, 13-DEALER PRINCIPAL, 14-MALCOLM, 16-SERIOUS SPEED, 17-PINNACLES, 18-PILLAR OF HERCULES, 19-MAJESTICAL Chances: 5-SEA BATTLE is absolutely flying this time in. Handles all conditions so wet won’t be a problem. Been right in the finish at every start this time in. Toorak Hcp run was excellent when drew outside barrier, pushed forward and stuck on extremely well. Then, drew outside again at MV, they decided to go back and he came around them and won with style. Big plus with this guy is that he is versatile – can race handy, drop back, handles all conditions. Drawn wide here again, and does get penalised for last win – so goes up in weight, whereas all others from that race drop in weight. Guessing they have to drop him back again here from wide barrier – has drawn 17-14-15 last 3 starts. But meeting every challenge and strong winning chance. 2nd W=$6.30 6-SNIPER'S BULLET is fitter for the 2 runs in, both of which have been full of merit. Flew home 1st up at Caulfield, and then ridden aggressively to lead last Sat at Flem from wide barrier when stuck on OK and probably unlucky not to win, only got beaten by one getting a dream sneaky run on the rails. Like the way he kicked on them about the 200M. Wet track form looks OK. Drawn wide, think they probably race handy as is normal racing pattern, so might get caught a little wide. Definitely want them to take a sit though and not push to the lead like they did last start. Last two runs have been excellent, think he has more improvement to come than most of his rivals from those races and looks a genuine winning chance. Go well. 9-VALEDICTUM is another old stager who had a long track record in this race. 4th in this race last year, with form that is very, very similar to this year. 3rd in this race in 2006 – when form was worse !. And winner of this race in 2005. We have been following him – and losing our money – but he has been going along pretty well. Excellent effort 1st up down the straight, flying home in Rupert Clarke from outside barrier, got on him in the Toorak – from good barrier – and for some reason still dropped out to last – and flew home again to just miss a placing. Then given a tidy up run going into this last week down the straight. Seems OK in the wet. Don’t understand why they have to keep dropping him so far back, he can race handy if required. This race is often won by swoopers, he has finished off the Rupert Clarke and Toorak pretty well, so think he has to go in. Rough chance. 10-ALL SILENT won here last Sat when got absolute dream run along inside – drop back horse drawn barrier 2 was always going to be query, but fantastic ride got him home. Really not much between all those from that race. Strong finish in Epsom before that, and like that he has had the extra run whereas the others from that race have had a 6 week break into this. In form, drops back and runs on, which is what you want in this race, and speed should be on. Genuine chance. 1st W=$6.20 12-CONQUERING is a vastly under rated horse – his form the last couple of months has been outstanding. Led and fought on well last start – when really hard to work to the lead, and should be better for that run – was stepping up in distance from 1100M to 1600M. Coming off a 1100M win with a whopping 65.5kgs ! Form before that in Melbourne was excellent – leading and winning, especially as he managed to do it on a dry track and past 1600M which were queries. Probably a case of the wetter the better for him. Would love to get on him in this – have to say it’s hard for leaders to win this race, there are a few that will take him on in front, he has drawn 1 so probably going to get a lot of pressure up front, and best ground on Stakes Day is normally the middle of the track. Going to put him in as a chance cause he is one of our favourites, but does seem to have a lot against him today. If one or more of the on pacers don’t run – then get more confident. Last run was really good, so have to put him in as a chance. Just watch and see if the track is chopping up and whether it’s swoopers or on pacers to determine how strong his chance is. 19-MAJESTICAL (emerg) is absolutely flying at the moment, great win in Cranbourne Cup, and loomed and looked the dead set winner at MV start before that. Has had the 4 weeks off since that run. No weight, in form – and like that he has a totally different form line than all of those – so could be better than all of them ! Drop back, will run on – if he gets into the field throw him in as a nice rough chance. SCR Place: 3-ORANGE COUNTY is going to appreciate the rain if it comes, and definitely better on tracks with some give in them. Ran home well at MV, and meets the (5) 2kgs better off from that run for only a 1.5L defeat. Dominant win 3 starts back at Caulfield in Group 1 race when went whoosh and dropped his rivals. Ran 6th in this race last year, again coming off a Waterford Crystal placing. Goes well at Flem – 3 wins and 4 placings from 8 starts – in fact , the only time he has missed a place was this race last year. We think we know this guy pretty well, and the 1600M is as far as he wants – although he has placed over the distance, he has yet to win in 6 starts. For him to win, he would need everything to go right, might get the rain which is a good start, but outsider barrier is a big problem – didn’t show anything when drew wide in Toorak, and think place at very best today. 4-MR BARITONE is coming along pretty nicely, should be at peak now with 4 runs in and has been thereabouts most starts. Not far off these last Sat and drops in weight. Did draw wide that day, so much better draw today. Eye catching run start before that at MV. Became a Group 1 winner in QLD over the winter at long odds, so suddenly has to carry considerable weight in his races. Wet tracks are a big plus for him. Ran 14th in this race last year – he was racing up close to the speed and they did run along. Over the 1600M and from nice barrier expect to see him racing a lot handier. Question is most people still struggle to believe his Group 1 win, and whether this is a bit above him. But on a wet track would be a place chance as is going along OK. 7-BANK ROBBER has had 6 weeks off since the Epsom. Lightly raced and imposing win strike rate. Led and run down in Epsom, so wet track no problem here if it rains. Well drawn to go forward, but there does seem to be a fair bit of speed in this race. Form from Epsom has held up through Mackinnon. Six week break is a little concern, into tough feature mile, 1st time in Melbourne Generally this is not a race for leaders, it’s always a hard tough run 1600M and it’s normally won by a swooper, especially as the track is normally wearing. Just keep an eye on how much rain we get, how the track is racing (swoopers / leaders). Place chance – elevate if racing pattern and conditions are in his favour. 4th W=$8.40 16-SERIOUS SPEED got scratched from the Myer Classic last week – not sure if it was to keep her for this race, or there was a problem? You would think there was a problem else they would’ve had a crack at both races – which is a concern. Fitter for 3 runs in, they have been OK, but nothing to get too excited about. Only wet track run was in Doncaster this year, when finished 5th, so that’s not too bad and not enough to write her off. Drop back horse, no weight, loves the speed on and will be suited if swoopers are winning. Rough chance – if she finds her best form she can be in the finish here. Sacking: 1-MENTALITY has had 6 weeks off going into this race. Wet track in the Epsom probably not to liking, so definite query if this track ends up wet today as well. Normally races on speed, drawn wide and there is probably a fair bit of speed in this race already. Never keen to get on top weights in this race and happy to leave out. 2-NICONERO is an old timer who just about always puts in some sort of run in these races. Ran 9th in this race last year – coming off a Cox Plate run and a Toorak placing. 2nd in this race in 2006 (again ran a placing in the Toorak that year), and 4th in 2005 (when won the Waterford Crystal the start before). Form this time in doesn’t seem anywhere near as good – and couldn’t win this race in previous years with less weight and better form. Drawn out, probably drops well back and often finds trouble in his races. Form this time in probably isn’t as bad as it looks, might not have liked the Sydney way of going and wet track in the Epsom probably not his thing, and did make a little ground here last week with monster weight. Gets weight drop into this, but meeting a lot who did beat him home last start. Probably runs on, but passing on him this year. 8-ROYAL DISCRETION pulled up lame here last Sat after a fair effort – how long does it take to become un-lame? Lots of hot baths? Massage ? Foot rub? Narrow winner against these start before at Caulfield when jockey took some initiative from outside barrier and went forward. Will go forward again here from OK barrier – has drawn wide last two starts, so expect him to race much more prominent today. Wet tracks no problem. Yet to really prove himself over the 1600M, but 4 wins over the 1400M, so you would think it wouldn’t be much problem. Really nothing between many of these last two runs – think the ride won him the race 2 starts back, and although drawing better today can see him getting caught up on speed in fast pace. Bit worried about pulling up lame last week too and backing up so quickly. Leaving out. 11-CARGO CULT hasn’t had the best of luck over recent months. Injury plagued galloper who is held together with rubber bands and sticky tape. Did nothing last run, but race probably favoured on pacers a bit. Was winding up with gusto here down the straight 2 starts back and hit a brick wall of horse arse and that was the end of that. Ran on well in 3 runs previous. Did place over 1600M in the Futurity during the Autumn, and previously run 5th in both the Toorak and Waterford Crystal in 2006 – so although 1600M record doesn’t look great, it’s probably not quite that bad. Little bit of give probably wouldn’t hurt, lot of rain might be a query. Bit hard to have him today, but he will drop back, get ridden quietly, and was going along OK before last start – have a feeling he didn’t like the firm track? Can’t seriously consider him, but if you are going for the $100,000 First Four think he is your rank outsider to put in. 13-DEALER PRINCIPAL has had 6 weeks off since last Syd run. More a staying type who is freshened back to the 1600M here today. Wet would probably be an issue for this one. Not sure about form through last two races in Sydney. Speed on here would suit, but think he might get too far back from inside barrier and need an awful lot of luck to get a run through the field. Happy to risk. 14-MALCOLM hasn’t shown any form this time in. Well drawn and did win a race over the Flem carnival in 2006, but doesn’t seem to be at best on wet ground and not going well enough into this. No 15-MIMI LEBROCK is going along extremely well and worth a shot at this race (can’t believe they didn’t do the same with FORESNICS who would’ve been a genuine chance). She is drawn well, will race on pace and sit behind the speed, so will put herself into the race at the right time. Had the race won a long way out at Caulfield, and put through fence at Flem start before that. Should be OK if it rains. Just still a niggling little question at a strong 1600M – especially if they do run along here. She was posted a little wide last week, but just felt she was stopping going towards the lines and think a strong mile in this sort of company probably finds her out. Happy to risk her today. 3rd W=$7.10 17-PINNACLES (emerg) is going along just OK Actually placed in Doncaster on a wet track – coming from last – which is a pretty fair effort. Was actually going to say 1600M here today was a little query otherwise. 4 runs in and should be at peak. Just though that he had every chance last two starts, will appreciate the nice light weight here today, but not convinced how well he is going. Drawn very wide and will have to drop well back – then again ran well in Doncaster under identical conditions !. Passing. 18-PILLAR OF HERCULES (emerg) has been thereabouts in lead up runs. Just felt he has had every chance last 2 starts in Toorak and Waterford Crystal – not that far away – but has to meet those who has beaten him home. Drawn very wide will make it tough – another who will have to drop back and concede a start – normally races handy but can’t see them going forward and wide in this field. Passing. 20-MARCHING (emerg) should be at peak now with 4 runs in, but really hasn’t shown any form. Last start isn’t as bad as it looks – was just about to run into the race on home turn and got badly blocked for runs. Definite query if there is any rain at all. Can race handy from nice barrier if he gets a start – which is unlikely. Still not convinced about form – but was unlucky last start so watch out for him in something weaker shortly. No Summary: Always a great race to bet on, always a tough run mile, very hard for on pacers to win this race. Track normally favours swoopers on this day, and especially in this race – record is well known of long short horses down in the weights winning this race. Looks like the rain has finally come, so in an even field a lot will come down to how this track races – make sure you watch the earlier races and see if the leaders are kicking on OK, if the track has cut up and they are coming out wide in the straight (likely), and if the track is favouring runners on. The 1400M race from Derby Day is normally a pretty strong guide to this race – hence they change it’s name every year to try and catch you out. Lining up the weights from the time honoured “AAMI Travel Insurance Stakes” - 10-ALL SILENT winner drops 1kgs, 6-SNIPER'S BULLET 2nd beaten ¾ L drops 2.5 kgs, 2-NICONERO drops 3.5 kgs (beaten 4.6 L), 4-MR BARITONE drops 2.5 kgs (beaten 2.8L), 8-ROYAL DISCREATION drops 2.5kgs (beaten 3.1L), 17-PINNACLES drops 3kgs (beaten 2.9L) and 14-MALCOLM drops 3.5 kgs (beaten 4.9L). 6-SNIPER'S BULLET meets the (10) 1.5 kgs better off, it had to work to get to the lead and the (10) got a dream run along the rails – hence 6-SNIPER'S BULLET is our top pick. From the Waterford Crystal, winner 5-SEA BATTLE goes up 0.5 kgs (did have outside barrier), 12-CONQUERING 2nd beaten 1.25L drops 1kgs, 3-ORANGE COUNTY 3rd beaten 1.25L drops 1.5kgs, 19-PILLAR OF HERCULES beaten 2.1L drops 1kgs. Here 3-ORANGE COUNTY meets the (5) 2kgs better off for a 1.25L defeat. Pace here does look quite strong - 7-BANK ROBBER, 8-ROYAL DISCRETION, 12-CONQUERING can all go to the lead, and poor 12-CONQUERING is the one that is going to get all the pressure and probably the worse going from inside barrier. 1-MENTALITY, 4-MR BARITONE, 6-SNIPER'S BULLET, 15-MIMI LEBROCK sitting handy behind them. Just watch though if there are scratchings because of the wet weather that takes some of the speed out of the race. Pretty damm keen on 6-SNIPER'S BULLET here at each way odds. Fitter for the 2 runs in, both of which have been excellent, last start was sitting out wide and was ridden aggressively to lead – showed a nice kick at the 200M and only just run down by one getting a dream run. Should be improvement still to come from that run, but you do want them to sit just off the speed here rather than going forward. Despite not being well weighted from last run, 5-SEA BATTLE the main danger – is flying – even with outside barrier, ridden cold and with the swoopers winning should be right in the finish. And with the rain coming happy to consider 12-CONQUERING now, under rated horse, will go forward, chances really depend on racing pattern coming into this race. Rough chances to 9-VALEDICTUM and especially 19-MAJESTICAL if he gets into the field. Happy punting. One to risk: 15-MIMI LEBROCK #RED 3rd W=$7.10 Roughie: 9-VALEDICTUM, 19-MAJESTICAL (emerg) RESULTS : For once a fairly predictable result in this once - the favoured runners fight out the finish. 10-ALL SILENT streaks away from them, great effort again from 5-SEA BATTLE coming from last and wide barrier. Runners on win this race again - is close to impossible to lead and win this race.

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