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| FLEMINGTON : STAKES DAY - 7th Nov 2009 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: LOVELY - Rail: OUT 8M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Lovely 30 degree weather heading into the weekend and looks like a great day to head to the races. Pretty much every major meeting this spring the track has started out as a DEAD(4) and improved considerably during the day. Showers have been threatened all week, but never really came so this track could end up quite firm. Avoid those who need some give in the ground – especially later in the day. Flemington has raced pretty evenly all week, maybe slight tendency for runners on down the middle to win on most days. Normally on Stakes Day on a worn track it normally favours runners on, but just be wary, in previous years they have left the rail in the same spot as the Oaks meeting, but we did get a strong on pacers track here in 2007 when they moved the rail out similar to today from Oaks Day. Down the straight they are coming down the middle of the track at the moment which makes things tricky, though have to say those towards the inside have kicked on well in every race this week so think the best going down the straight will be more towards the inside. Just be wary on Stakes Day – often some of these have missed their main spring target and are coming to the end of their campaign, so often you can get fresher horses winning. Always plenty to bet on so let’s double up to $100 today and go a little exotic in the bets and have some fun. RESULTS : Track races evenly, but just seems to favour those running on again, as it has all week. Bit of a tough day on the punt and the tips bomb out after having a pretty good week. BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 5-GOLD SALUTE $20 EW 3rd W=$6.40, P=$2.10 = 2.10 x 20 = $42 This one has done everything right this spring, was robbed of a chance to win a Group 1 in a barrier mishap back in Sept and gets his chance today. Goes well at Flem, runs a strong mile, solid effort last start from wide barrier and will be running on strongly today. Should be in the finish, just needs to beat the 3YO rising star, so let’s back it each way. RESULTS : Blows the start yet again and ridden cold makes good ground through the field. If he jumped away would have been right in the finish, but is starting to get costly at the barriers. BEST BET : Race 8: 8-HUME FLEXI TRIFECTA : 8 / 10,13,14,17,18 / 4,5,7,10,13,14,17,18 x $15 = 43% - / 3rd 18-NAVAL ESCORT W=$15.10 / 1st 5-STERLING PRINCE W=$18.10 Last two runs have been excellent, was weaving home late in the Coogny, then coming home well here last week behind SHOCKING, who from memory went OK in the Cup ? Clearly beat the rest of the field here last week. Drawn well, there seems to be a heap of speed in this so he should get good cover and be finishing on strongly off a fast pace. Looks a solid bet – has to be said though this is a big field of even stayers, there is going to be a very fast speed and would expect odds of $3.50 to $4.00 – TAB Fixed Odds currently has him at $2.40 which seems ridiculous in such a big field. So instead let’s take a trifecta, big field and should be plenty of value place chances. RESULTS : 8-HUME is the obvious top pick in this race, but start a ludricious W=$2.90 on the tote - this is a even field of 16 hard fit stayers, it should be $4.00 + the field. Looms up like he is going to go into the finish, but doesn't finish it off. QUINELLA : Race 5: 7-BANK ROBBER -5-NICCONI x $5 3rd 7-BANK ROBBER W=$11.30 QUINELLA : Race 5: 7-BANK ROBBER -6-MIC MAC x $5 3rd 7-BANK ROBBER W=$11.30 QUINELLA : Race 5: 7-BANK ROBBER # 1,3 x $2.50 3rd 7-BANK ROBBER W=$11.30, 1st 3-ALL SILENT W$3.70 The sprint race looks a dead set cracker – there isn’t much between these at all. Crack field of in form run on sprinters – and that is the key – they are just about all run on sprinters. 7-BANK ROBBER looks the clear leader here and the leaders down the inside of the straight have been kicking on well all week. 1st up he stuck on really well at MV, remember he took on LUCKY SECRET in the lead that day who folded so it was a pretty solid effort and he wasn’t beaten that far. That was a 1st up run, so he probably has more improvement to come than the others coming out of that race too, and there wasn’t much between them. Might get run down, so take the quinellas, preferring the 5-NICCONI, 6-MIC MAC as the main dangers who both have gear changes today. Take saver quinellas with the other obvious chances 1-APACHE CAT and 3-ALL SILENT. Just not sure about 1-APACHE CAT today, his last two runs down the straight he has flopped badly, but they were both 1st up runs so that might be the reason. If you do back him do it with a bookie, the odds on the tote are far, far inferior (probably going to be around $4.00 with bookies and round $2.50 on the tote). But there definitely isn’t much between these, just think 7-BANK ROBBER is going to scoot to the lead here and give you a really good run for your money. RESULTS : Went pretty close to a collect here, as predicted 7-BANK ROBBER got a soft lead, and led most of the way down the straight. Looked the winner about 100M out. Swamped over last 50M, but only miss the quinella in the last couple of strides. 1-APACHE CAT finishes fourth, obviously not at best down straight, trainer has said he won't run him down the straight again. QUINELLA : Race 4: 1-GOVERNANCE - 8-AGRIPPA x $10 3rd 1-GOVERNANCE W=$2.00 QUINELLA : Race 4: 1-GOVERNANCE - 6-ABSOLUTE SODA x $10 3rd 1-GOVERNANCE W=$2.00 QUINELLA : Race 4: 1-GOVERNANCE - 5-DEMPSEY x $5 3rd 1-GOVERNANCE W=$2.00 This one is going to start short, but really should win. Last start should have actually beaten a smart one at MV, just got held up coming around the turn and finished on really strongly. Likely to start even money and not a fan of backing short priced horses so let’s take some more quinellas. This race over the years often causes an upset, and often it is something coming off country or maiden form. RESULTS : Short priced favourite just misses in driving finish after dead set awful ride. Ridden back and inside horses and held up for runs, on best horse in the field jockey should have been stalking them at the back and ready to make a clear swoop out wide. Again this race is won by a horse coming off maiden form at big odds - does seem to happen quite often. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 2 : LARRY’S NEVER LATE around $3.00 6th W=$4.60 Larry is a pretty good horse and he is striking a fairly weak field here. However, often his best runs tend to be fresh and he has flopped at short odds before. Small field, not much speed, wonder if he may be looking for further and might get left a little flat footed here. Let’s take him on. RESULTS : Larry gets a pretty good run, is in the right position at the top of the straight, but does absolutely nothing. Nice lay and no stress in the run. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. RUNNING DOUBLE : Races 6,7 : 2,5,11,12,16 / 3,10 x 50 cents = $5 2nd 12-SO YOU THINK W=$3.50, 3rd 5-GOLD SALUTE W=$6.40 / 3rd 3-LAY LYNETTE W=$4.30 Always worth going wide in the feature race which can often have an upset result. The following mares race should be wide open so should provide some value, but stick with the in form 3-LADY LYNETTE who somehow won at MV even though it looked like she was going to run a battling 4th 100M out, and she ran on well in feature race last Sat. 10-BASHFUL GIRL ran on well on Tues and is going to be at odds. Just a little concerned about the very firm track with the likely favourite 1-PURPLE. Double should pay OK with big fields. RESULTS : Upset result in the Stakes yet again, but not one we picked. Almost worth just taking the bottom 5 runners in that race every year cause they are on a pretty good winning streak at odds. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $42 NET : $-58 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. ENJOY THE SUNSHINE Race 2: 9-ABSOLUTE STAR, 8-POISED TO WIN, 7-LUCKY THUNDER Race 3: 6-TIMETABLE, 1-RAFFAELLO, 9-MY BENTLEY Race 4: 1-GOVERNANCE, 8-AGRIPPA, 6-ABSOLUTE SODA Race 5: 7-BANK ROBBER, 5-NICCONI, 6-MIC MAC Race 6: 5-GOLD SALUTE, 12-SO YOU THINK, 16-WALKING OR DANCING Race 7: 3-LADY LYNETTE, 10-BASHFUL GIRL, 1-PURPLE Race 8: 8-HUME, 18-NAVAL ESCORT (emerg), 17-BIG COL (emerg), 13-ZUPACOOL Race 9: 1-ROYAL IDA, 4-BARWON EXPRESS, 8-OKAY OKY |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-ABSOLUTE STAR 8-POISED TO WIN 1st W=$13.00 *** nice value winner *** 7-LUCKY THUNDER 2nd W=$3.30 Quinella : $20.10 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-TIMETABLE 1-RAFFAELLO 1st W=$3.50 9-MY BENTLEY 3rd W=$3.90 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-GOVERNANCE 3rd W=$2.00 8-AGRIPPA 6-ABSOLUTE SODA |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-BANK ROBBER 3rd W=$11.30 5-NICCONI 6-MIC MAC |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-GOLD SALUTE 3rd W=$6.40 12-SO YOU THINK 2nd W=$3.50 16-WALKING OR DANCING |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-LADY LYNETTE 3rd W=$4.30 10-BASHFUL GIRL 1-PURPLE 1st W=$3.70 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-HUME 18-NAVAL ESCORT 3rd W=$15.10 17-BIG COL |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-ROYAL IDA 4-BARWON EXPRESS 8-OKAY OKY 3rd W=$10.60 |
| RACE 6: EMIRATES STAKES 1600M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 5-GOLD SALUTE 3rd W=$6.40 12-SO YOU THINK 2nd W=$3.50 16-WALKING OR DANCING |
| Others: 2, 11 Pace: SOLID Leaders : 6-KING MUFHASA, 8-SIR SLICK Handy : 3-SNIPER'S BULLET, 5-GOLD SALUTE, 9-EAGLE FALLS (wide), 10-TRIPLE HONOUR, 12-SO YOU THINK, 13-ALL AMERICAN Back : 1-BLACK PIRANHA, 2-ROAD TO ROCK, 4-VIGOR, 11-RIGHTFULLY YOURS, 14-CHINCHILLA ROSE, 15-VON COSTA DE HERO Chances: 2-ROAD TO ROCK is a solid type who was going along pretty well in Sydney before aiming too high in the Cox Plate. He needs to make a long sustained run at them and doubt MV was his cup of tea. He won on this day last year. Drawn an outside barrier probably suits, he wants to come to the middle of the track and make a long run at them. Wasn’t that far off in the Australian Cup here in March. Actually think he is a rough chance in this, if they are winning running on, his form in Sydney was good and forget the Cox Plate run. Rough. 5-GOLD SALUTE deserves a Group 1 win to his name. Has been knocking on the door all spring, huge 1st up run when scooted to lead along inside rail and only beaten by one on the outside. Then late scratching when got caught up in barriers at the start of the Rupert Clarke, so declared a non runner. Carried huge weight to win at Caulfield, then tricky ride from outside barrier and only just beaten in the Toorak. Drawn a little better today, versatile horse who can race anywhere in the field. 3 times winner this track and just looks ready to fire. Done everything right this spring, think today he finally gets the breaks and definitely looks the one to beat to us. Top chance. 3rd W=$6.40 11-RIGHTFULLY YOURS is a smart one who should be a show in a race like this. Fitter for the 3 runs in and should be ready to give this a serious crack today. Big betting drifter last start – why? – even though he ran 2nd last start thought he was a little disappointing, the winner might have just been too good but that race looked all his on paper. Started favourite in the Railway over 1600M and didn’t do much and might just be a little suspect over the 1600M in top company ? Hasn’t done much wrong this time in though, will sit off them out wide from barrier and probably swoop into race so rough chance. 12-SO YOU THINK was a total revelation in dominant Cox Plate win – that was a SUNLINE like performance, he didn’t stack up them and dawdle, he jumped and bolted and slaughtered them. Could be a super star on the rise. Interesting to see what they do here – you would think now he has learnt to go forward he will go forward again and race handy – can’t see him bolting to the lead again like last start though. There is a bit of pressure up front today though and this race is normally won by those running on. Was ridden well back in the field before last start, but you would think now he has a taste for the lead would be hard to change that. Surely he couldn’t win a Cox Plate leading all the way and an Emirates coming from last ? Hard to line up the 3YOs in this race – pretty unusual to have 3YOs in this race at all, they are normally back home in bed after a tough spring campaign. Last time was 2 years ago when WEEKEND HUSSLER started a ridiculously short priced favourite and bombed and we had a 100-1 winner. Similarly, WEEKEND HUSSLER had been a very impressive winner as a 3YO, but think there are a few differences – he had already had a long hard spring, and he also had only ran against his own age before today. SO YOU THINK has proven himself in open company before going into this race, and has had a lighter spring than he did. Yet he is probably going to start better odds (WEEKEND HUSSLER started W=$2.10 on the tote). Very hard to line up, if he has something left to give this spring and sits on the speed he just wins, just wary of the traditional types who win this race. Solid chance. 2nd W=$3.50 16-WALKING OR DANCING put in a pretty good run here last Sat, and often the winner of this race comes through that race. He didn’t get any room in the straight at all and was still finishing on strongly over the last 50M. Should have a lot of improvement to come out of that run too, he was 2nd up there and off a 5 week break. Drawn a nice barrier, can sit handy and will put himself into the race at the right time. Seems to run out the 1600M OK. Looks a good chance in this, always back the ones at the bottom of the weights in this race, and should be OK odds. Chance. Place: 1-BLACK PIRANHA is an ultra consistent Sydney miler who before coming to Melbourne has been in the first four at his last 14 starts. Run in Toorak was pretty good when actually did not have much luck, then was aiming too high in the Cox Plate. Back to the 1600M here will suit, but has drawn inside and will drop well back in this. Ends up as top weight in this and never a fan of backing topweights in this race, it is often won by those lower in the weights. Probably runs on OK and place best. 4th W=$12.80 7-RED LORD has been mixing it up this spring. Jockey jumped off him after the Caulfield Cup and said “he doesn’t stay”. What ? And after we paid all this good money to train you for the Melbourne Cup too you ungrateful sod. Shot forward to sit outside lead in the Turnbull and quickly gave in, and most of the other on pacers stuck on OK in that race. Is best ridden back in the field though and does have a nice turn of foot when let down. You would think he is past his best this time in and just looking for consolation prizes. Has drawn wide though, will drop back, pace should be solid here, he is probably worth throwing in at long odds if you want the big trifecta / first four as he might run on OK at odds. Rough place chance – can probably make excuses for last two poor runs (ridden upside down / didn’t stay). 9-EAGLE FALLS is an emerging talent and dynamic win down the straight here last start. Often they can mix straight 1200M/1600M form OK. Has been kept solely as a sprinter this time in and has been going great – was the switch to 1600M always planed or just a last minute “might as well have a crack” type thing ? Was obviously kept to being a sprinter cause they had concerns over the 1600M trip, but wasn’t disgraced in two tries over this trip. Bit of an unknown factor in this. Has drawn wide though, think over the longer trip he probably goes forward, going to get caught wide here and might come unstuck. Unknown quantity though and in impressive winning form so rough chance. 10-TRIPLE HONOUR is a Sydney visitor who wasn’t too far off them here last Sat and gets nice weight drop into this. Well drawn and can race handy so is going to get a pretty good run into this race. Runs a strong mile. Probably better with just a little give in the ground and this track is going to come up quite firm. Prefer place. Sacking: 3-SNIPER'S BULLET is fitter for the 3 runs in and should see some improvement today. Finished on well here last start last Sat and often the winner of this race comes through that race (whatever they call it this year). Drops 2kgs from that run. Yet to win past 1400M though, and had 6 tries at the mile for 3 placings. Think he is a query at the distance, especially at the feature mile level. We tipped him in this race last year, his lead up form was pretty similar, he dropped too far back and just ran on OK. Nice barrier here and is probably going to get a pretty good run in this, will sit just behind the speed. Suspect he will poke through midway down the straight, but will get swamped. Happy to risk. 4-VIGOR is the poor old sod who missed the run in the Melbourne Cup, so has to try and make do with this race. Must be a very tricky training performance – was being trained for 2 miles on Tues, they didn’t know till Sat he wasn’t going to be in the field, so need to drop everything and go for the 1600M race a week later? Can’t be easy to do. Win here in the Makybe Diva was super impressive, then struggled a little next two runs, didn’t want to go between horses in the Underwood but didn’t have much to give anyway, then found trouble when drew inside again in the Turnbull. Drawn outside with no weight in the Caulfield Cup he put in a huge run – wide all the way and stuck on well. 5 times winner this track. The barriers really seem to be the key to this guy, his poor runs have been when drawn inside barriers – and guess what – he has drawn barrier 1 today. Poor bastard is having one hell of a week. Form is good, concerned about the switch in training and can’t have him from inside barrier. Risking 6-KING MUFHASA is a NZ visitor who normally rolls to the front in his races. Went forward from wide barrier in the Toorak and wasn’t beaten that far in 1st run over here this time in, so probably improves on that run. Fitter for the 3 runs in and probably still got improvement to come into this. Drawn nice barrier and should just about lead here. This race just isn’t won by leaders though (same goes for most feature miles), they are always tough even affairs with lots of pressure up front. Prefer to risk. 8-SIR SLICK is dead set hopeless - but kind of them to let him run anyway. Will go to the front and put some speed in the race. No 13-ALL AMERICAN continues to tease and likes to run home to run about 5th or 6th as he did in the Rupert Clarke and the Toorak. Ran on OK for 3rd in the MV Crystal, but that was beaten a long, long way. Keeps mixing distances between sprinting and the mile, not quite sure if even he knows which he prefers. Drawn a nice barrier and can sit handy, but think he has had plenty of chances in these sort of races and just hasn’t been good enough. Still hasn’t won past 1200M despite plenty of tries. No 1st W=$30.30 14-CHINCHILLA ROSE is fitter for the 3 runs in but looks out of her depth in this. Yet to win past 1400M, hasn’t shown much in 3 starts this time in and the genuinely firm track today is probably going to be against. No 15-VON COSTA DE HERO is the pin up boy for horses punters love to hate. Shows brief bursts of brilliance, followed by long periods of head shaking and tut tutting. Coming into a feature mile off a 5 week break doesn’t look ideal. 1st up run this time in was hopelessly unlucky, dropped back to last and ran on well, 2nd up ridden forward stopped in an instant to trail off and really didn’t do much in 2 runs since then. 1600M is probably his best distance with Caulfield and Australian Guineas placings as a 3YO. Has ability on his day, but finding that day out of the other 365 days of the year is too much hard work. Inside barrier, will drop well back and need luck. No Summary: Always a great betting race and often produces a value winner down the bottom of the weights. Extra intrigue this year with dominant Cox Plate winning 12-SO YOU THINK keeping us guessing with his unusual, but highly successful spring campaign. 1600M feature mile races are always tough, high pressure races, they are normally won by those running on, you really need to run out a strong mile and it is very hard for on pacers to win these sorts of races. Often the winner of this race come through the 1400M last race on Derby Day. Pace should be solid here, 6-KING MUFHASA, 8-SIR SLICK will both go forward and ensure a good tempo, would be very surprised if 12-SO YOU THINK goes too hard early so will probably sit handy not far off them. 3-SNIPER'S BULLET, 9-EAGLE FALLS (wide) the others likely to be up on the speed. Pretty keen to go each way here on the 5-GOLD SALUTE, been doing everything right this spring, deserves a Group 1 victory, fitter for 3 runs in and should put himself right into the finish today running on hard. 12-SO YOU THINK obviously the wild card, can’t see them leading, but probably sits handy, Cox Plate win was really dominant and could be something special – be interesting to see what odds he goes round at. The $2.80 at the moment actually seems OK value – he is a 3YO, but he is proven with a dominant open class win. 16-WALKING OR DANCING the one down at the bottom of the weight at OK odds to watch out for. Best roughie is 2-ROAD TO ROCK who will probably make a long hard run out wide. Intriguing race with the 3YO going around. One to risk: 4-VIGOR 7th W=$8.00 Roughie: 2-ROAD TO ROCK The Key: Often won by horses at the bottom of the weights / runners on RESULTS : Another year, another lightly weigthed long shot winner of the Stakes. Almost just worth taking all those at the bottom of the field. 12-SO YOU THINK gets worked up, over races, has to go to lead and looks like a clear easy winner about 100M out. Still can't believe that 13-ALL AMERICAN could come out and swamp them like that.5-GOLD SALUTE loses race at the barrier - again. |
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