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- Better odds - up to 20% better |
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| FLEMINGTON : STAKES DAY - 6th Nov 2010 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: LOVELY - Rail: OUT 9M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Finally the sun is going to come out for Stakes Day and don’t be surprised if they get a mega bumper crowd. Oaks Day seems to be crashing badly in popularity with falling crowds and everyone is moving to Stakes Day, which is not going to end up as quiet as most people expect and you might get a crowd pushing 100,000. The track has raced pretty well all week considering all the bad weather. It was a SLOW(7) on Thursday, but you would think with a full day of sunshine it is probably going to rapidly improve and we should be looking at a genuine DEAD or better by race time. So no need to go looking for those wet trackers any more. It was noticeable on Thursday as the track was drying out the on pacers were doing better and better, and the winners were moving closer and closer to the rails. You might actually find the track tends towards on pacers today, especially as the track continues to dry out. Down the straight should be pretty even – but again maybe tend towards the inside. Tricky program to find value, especially with a few dual engagements so not sure what race some horses are going to run in. Early part of the program not sure there is much value in multiples, so just a few select wins bets – and not many we are super keen on. Races 6,7,8 all likely to be huge multiple dividends so go wide and throw in those bolters. Largely just play bets this week. RESULTS : Track dries out nicely, and they did tend to stick on on the speed. Down the straight they come a few horses in from the outside as they have all week. Tips go along extremely well again - we have had a sensational Cup / Oaks / Stakes Day finding plenty of value winners, topping it off today with a $40 winner in the Betting Portfolio !! BEST WIN : Race 3: 3-RED COLOSSUS $15 WIN 2nd W=$2.00 Surprised many with a very forward showing in the Mackinnon last week which totally not suited at WFA, and this is much easier. Fitter for the 4 runs in which have all been solid, lightly raced with a good strike rate and seems to have improvement to come. Best part though is hopefully should box seat from the barrier in a race with no much speed on a track that may be favouring on pacers. Solid bet. RESULTS : Have to apologise for this bet. Was the obvious pick in this race, and worth backing at around $3 to $3.50, but with a few scratchings it has started ridicolous odds. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 13-WILLY JIMMY $5 EW 2nd W=$8.10, P=$2.50 = 5 x 2.5 = $12.50 Will be better for the 3 runs after a 2 month break and was finishing on nicely when almost grabbed the favourite at Caulfield last start. Solid 1600M record and is actually much better on a dry track. Each way RESULTS : Comes home hard, late, but doesn't really challenge the winner BEST ROUGH : Race 6: 10-LUEN YAT FOREVER $2.50 EW 4th W=$33.50 Yes, yes we know this sounds really silly. But his run in the Toorak was pretty good and you can forget the Cox Plate run when over raced badly. Drawn a nice barrier, jockey is in form and just wonder if he might pinch a feature race here. Can sit on speed in a race where these isn’t much speed and might run better than most people expect. Suspect will blow out to long, long odds on the tote too ($50 or over). Worth a play bet in a race that throws up outsiders quite often. RESULTS : Darn it ! It was a pretty brave pick you have to admit. Raced as predicted - sat on speed, loomed up half way down the straight, actually hit the lead about 80M out, but bobbed out of a placing in a tight four way finish. A little unlucky not to get a collect here. Points for effort? BEST ROUGH : Race 7: 15-WELL ROUNDED $2.50 EW 1st W=$38.30, P=$9.10 = 47.4 x 2.5 = $118.50 Problem with this race is the (1) and the (2) who are the in form class mares have both drawn shocking barriers, so we are going around them. That means plenty of value about those well drawn that are going to race on pace. This one went well on Tuesday, is fitter for the 4 runs in will sit on speed from a good barrier and might stick on OK. Rough each way. RESULTS : And we have a winner ! Hope you got on - great rough bet. Even better it raced as we predicted, sat just behind the speed, poked through and was too good for them. We found a huge value winner, plus predicted exactly how it would win. DAILY DOUBLE : Races 6,8 : 9,10,15,20 / 3,10,11,14,16 x 50 cents = $10 4th 10-LAN YAT FOREVER W=$33.50 / 2nd 3-CAPECOVER W=$20.80, 3rd 10-PERSIAN STAR W=$51.40 Sure to be plenty of value in this daily double. Take our four picks in the 1st leg, which includes the 4th emergency the (20). If that doesn’t get a run, try the 2nd emergency the (18). And if that doesn’t get a run then put in the (4). Keeping up ? Often a value result in the Emirates so always worth throwing in some roughies, especially the emergencies. The 2nd leg is wide open too – and made even more difficult by the appearance of a few of the over seas staying left overs. Don’t know anything about them – so no point guessing, but plenty of value about the other runners, especially the (10) and the (16) who might do something at odds. Will be a decent dividend what ever happens. RESULTS : NO glory here, but our roughies in both legs were right in the finish of both races. So close to mega boasting glory. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4 : 1-TERRITORY at around $3.20 3rd W=$4.00 Happy to take on the favourite in Race 4. He has drawn inside and can race on speed, which is good and he is better back on a dry track – so he is probably going to start well supported. But he was very lucky to hold on to win here 2 starts back, is lumped with a whopping 59kgs today and from memory this race just about always throws up a winner down in the weights coming through the provincials. Expect something fresh on the scene this spring to step up and head towards the Sandown Guineas. Risking. RESULTS : We looked in serious trouble 100M out when this one kicked and looked home, but thankfully it got swamped over the last 20M. Close call. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 7 : QUINELLA: 1, 9,15,16,17 x 50 cents boxed = $5 1st 15-WELL ROUNDED W=$38.50, 2nd 1-PURPLE W=$8.40 QUIN = $157.10 x 0.5 = $78.55 Betting in Race 7 again and as mentioned above the better class mares have drawn badly so lets go with those in form, on pace with nice barriers who might get into the finish at odds. RESULTS : Nice collect ! We find the roughie, and box up the on pace mares and turn $5 into close to $100. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $209.55 NET : $+159.55 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 1-MASTHEAD, 13-SPECTROLITE, 8-LIEUTENANT COLONEL Race 2: 13-WILLY JIMMY, 1-TRADER, 7-NO JURISDICTION Race 3: 3-RED COLOSSUS, 1-PLAYWRIGHT, 10-GALIZANI Race 4: 4-BIGELOW, 2-THAT’S NOT IT, 6-YORKSHIRE LAD Race 5: 2-HAY LIST, 6-BLACK CAVIAR, 7-STAR WITNESS Race 6: 20-TRADER(emerg), 9-DRUMBEATS, 15-SNOW ALERT, 10-LUEN YAT FOREVER Race 7: 9-DELTA GEE, 17-PLATINUM PASSION (emerg), 15-WELL ROUNDED, 16-RIVER BYPASS Race 8: 3-CAPECOVER, 14-MY BENTLEY, 16-SEA GALLEON Race 9: 2-BERRINGAMA, 3-WE’RE GONNA ROCK, 11-ISHANT |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-MASTHEAD 13-SPECTROLITE 8-LIEUTENANT COLONEL |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-WILLY JIMMY 2nd W=$8.10 1-TRADER 7-NO JURISDICTION |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-RED COLOSSUS 2nd W=2.00 1-PLAYWRIGHT 1st W=$6.00 10-GALIZANI SCR Quinella : $4.80 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-BIGELOW 1st W=$3.40 2-THAT’S NOT IT 6-YORKSHIRE LAD 2nd W=$9.90 Quinella : $16.90 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-HAY LIST 6-BLACK CAVIAR 1st W=$1.80 7-STAR WITNESS 2nd W=$6.50 Quinella : $4.40 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-DRUMBEATS 15-SNOW ALERT 10-LUEN YAT FOREVER |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-DELTA GEE 17-PLATINUM PASSION 15-WELL ROUNDED 1st W=$38.30 *** best rough of day *** |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-CAPECOVER 2nd W=$20.80 14-MY BENTLEY 16-SEA GALLEON |
| RACE 9 RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-BERRINGAMA 3-WE’RE GONNA ROCK 11-ISHANT |
| RACE 6: EMIRATES STAKES 1600M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 20-TRADER(emerg) SCR 9-DRUMBEATS 15-SNOW ALERT 10-LUEN YAT FOREVER 4th W=$33.50 |
| Others: 18, 4, 5,17 Pace: SLOW Leaders : 17-GATHERING, 20-TRADER Handy : 2-SNIPER'S BULLET, 3-WALL STREET, 5-SOUND JOURNEY, 10-LUEN YAT FOREVER, 15-SNOW ALERT, 16-ALLEZ WONDER, 18-DEMERIT Back : 1-BLACK PIRANHA, 4-CAPTAIN SONADOR, 6-ALBERT THE FAT, 7-DAO DAO, 8-TRUSTING, 9-DRUMBEATS, 11-ROTHERA, 12-CHASM, 13-GOLD SALUTE, 19-WE'RE GONNA ROCK Chances: 4-CAPTAIN SONADOR has been racing sparingly this spring so probably still has plenty to give. Nice win in the Epsom when was only 3rd run in and stepping up in distance so probably had improvement still to come, and obviously out of depth in the Cox Plate so ignore that run. Firming track here is going to suit as suspect on wet ground. Drawn a nice barrier and has to rate a chance in this. Chance. 5-SOUND JOURNEY can mix his form a little but last 2 runs have been excellent. Made solid ground from behind on a leader’s track on Caulfield Guineas day, and suited by fast tempo and swoopers track when ran over the top of the coming from well back at MV. That was a pretty impressive win. Another who we thought was slightly suspect at a strong 1600M before last start. Dry track definitely better for him. Drawn a nice barrier and expect to see him ridden much closer today – and should get an extremely good run into this. Strong chance. 9-DRUMBEATS is coming along nicely and running into form this spring. Another with an ordinary 1600M record - 5 starts, just the 1 placing. Finished on well last start at MV, and note that he meets the (5) 1.5 kgs better off and the (20) 1kgs better off, so does look well in here. He was finishing on really strongly there and plenty to like about his run. Often drops back in the run and probably appreciate the bigger track here, and Flem form is pretty good. Back at Flem have to rate him very highly. Might even race handier today ? Solid chance. 10-LUEN YAT FOREVER is the Macau visitor who surprised many when he poked through late in the Toorak. Then over raced and never looked likely in the Cox Plate – who else was worried he was going to do something silly and go and knock over the favourite who was sitting outside him in that race? Should be fitter for the 2 runs in, drawn a nice barrier and can sit on speed. Oh no – that is exactly the type of horse we are looking for in this race ! So we have to consider him. And look who goes on – jockey Walker who is riding very well and is going to pinch a big race sooner rather than later. Going to start long odds – and think you can just write off the Cox Plate run when never settled. Will sit on speed, Toorak run was OK, nice barrier, track likely to favour those racing on speed and in form jockey, at nice odds. This is going to sound incredibly silly but think he is a chance. Suspect he will blow out to super long odds on the tote too. Best rough ! Throw him in. 4th W=$33.50 15-SNOW ALERT is a solid dry tracker who can run the mile and beyond which is always a plus in these sort of races cause the feature mile seems to find so many of them out. Nice light weight. Unlucky at MV last start when got hopelessly held up for runs and finished on really well once clear. You would think bigger Flem track would suit better anyway. He can actually race on pace – has drawn very wide but there isn’t much speed here – do they take their chances and go forward? Else will drop well back and have to try his luck like half of this field. Lot to like about last run and have to consider strongly in this . Solid chance. 18-DEMERIT(emerg) is a lightly raced one holding his form. Looks good going into this , fitter for the 3 runs in, had the 2 x 1400M runs in lead up and nice run here last start when finishing on like he was going to win, but one kicked back who probably handled the wet better. Should be better back on a dry track. Out to the 1600M for the 1st time though and that is the query – will he run a strong mile? He has drawn a nice barrier though and will race on speed so is a solid winning chance. Chance. SCR 20-TRADER(emerg) is one we really like, but the odds of him getting a start as 4th emergency at pretty slim indeed. Fitter for the 4 runs in, will improve with the run over the 1600M. Kicked clear off a solid speed last start when went forward and looked like he was going to win, but one swooped around the bend and finished over the top of him. Wasn’t beaten by much at all though. Drawn nicely, can sit on speed – and there isn’t much speed here, chance on pacers will be favoured on a drying track, no weight. So much to like about him. Forget wet track run before that when jockey said simply didn’t handle it. Clear top pick in this race – but unlikely to get a start. Maybe if we said please? Top chance. SCR Place: 2-SNIPER'S BULLET is another feature mile specialist who sometimes look a bit suss running out a strong 1600M. Just the 1 win from 10 starts at the mile, and that was in the Railway Stakes last year, and he went on to win over 1800M after that. Have to admit we thought he was suss at the 1600M before those wins. Nice effort flying home on a very heavy track at Caulfield when was probably unlucky to miss – he looked like he had finished on and won. He had struggled for form before that. Probably better on dry tracks anyway. He was 5th and a little unlucky in this race last year, and 9th the year before. Outside barrier is a bit of a worry, the plus is that he can race on speed and from a nice barrier here would have put him in as a strong chance, but think he is likely to get caught wide here. Still think he is just about to strike form and like the way he went to the line last start so a rough chance only. Rough. 3-WALL STREET is a highly regarded NZer who didn’t show much in the Cox Plate. Was expected to go forward and maybe even lead there, but slightly missed start and really didn’t do anything after that. Form in NZ does seem to hold up so is worth of respect here, and still has pretty smart win strike rate. Bit hard to know what to do with this one, maybe watch the market to see if he gets supported today ? Just seemed to never got warm in the Cox Plate, so is definitely capable of better. Sitting on speed from a outside barrier today might do something, just hard to back with confidence. Rough 1st W=$5.30 7-DAO DAO is another coming into this 3rd up, stepping up from 1200M/1400M runs. Unlike many in this race he actually has an excellent 1600M record, 9 starts, 4 wins and 7 placings. Outside barrier in a capacity field isn’t going to be much help though and you can see him dropping well back , and wide in this. He went pretty well through Autumn and was competitive in everything he contested. Nice weight drop too from last week. Throw in as a place chance. 2nd W=$14.90 14-PALACIO DE CRISTAL is a talented strong finishing mare who is suited in this sort of race. Stuck to the rails for nice win 1st up a Flem, then never went a yard in the wet going last week in the Myer. Just wonder how much those runs took out of the horses who didn’t handle the track, note that YOSEI didn’t back up on Thursday in the Oaks. Firm track today obviously suits, drawn outside and will drop back and run on. Just needs a solid tempo and the runners on to be winning – and not sure that is going to happen. Rough chance only 17-GATHERING (emerg) is a tough on pacer who jumped and ran and brained them here 3 starts back. Wasn’t disgraced on heavy track at Caulfield in a race where there was a lot of pressure up front, and set the speed before compounding at MV. Was easily beaten home by a few going around here at that run. He is tough though, drawn a nice barrier and will sit on speed or lead in a race where there seems to be very little pace. Likely to be in the finish – not sure is a winning chance, but definitely put into your trifectas as a strong place chance. Strong place chance. SCR 19-WE'RE GONNA ROCK (emerg) has always promised so much, but is yet to really deliver. He is starting to go close though. He has been pretty consistent this time in – finishing in the first half dozen or so in all the lead up races. Loomed up like he was going to win here 3 starts back, but stopped very quickly, they suspected he swallowed his tongue, or a fly, or something. Great run in Toorak and solid effort here last week when probably not suited on the heavy track. Plenty to like about him – but remember he still hasn’t won much – and he still has not won a race past 1000M ! Hence he is only 3rd emergency and unlikely to get into this field. Drawn a shocking barrier, and has to drop well back here. Rough chance only if gets a start – form is good, but media and stable hype is over whelming and always seems to start under the odds. Rough only. SCR Sacking: 1-BLACK PIRANHA is a solid feature mile veteran. Funny thing is horses that contest these feature miles regularly always end up with appalling 1600M records – just cause they are so hard to win, normally there are capacity fields and its darn tough work. So this ones 1600M record – 11 starts – a pretty ordinary 2 placings only. Been going along just OK this spring, ran on OK in the Epsom. Ran 4th in this race last year coming off an OK Toorak run that was pretty similar to his Epsom run this year. Doesn’t seem to be in quite as good form this year though. Likely to drop well back, and topweights just don’t win this race very often and don’ think he is going well enough. No 6-ALBERT THE FAT is 3rd up and up 200M into this race. Have to admit we prefer them to have had 3 runs or 2 x 1400M runs going into the feature miles, just cause they are such tough competitive affairs. He finished on very well here last Sat, running up right behind the place getters. Drop back strong finishing type who made a lot of ground in the Stradbroke over the winter. Interestingly though has never been past 1400M in 24 starts – looks a little unusual, especially for one that is running on strongly all the time. Drawn an extreme outsider barrier and likely to drop well back here, and just reckon it is so hard to win feature miles from well back – there are always a stack of good horses sitting on speed that you are giving a start too. Prefer to risk today. 8-TRUSTING is a grand pretender who has never lived up to the promise he showed as a 3YO. Peeking glimpses of form in the 2nd and 3rd up runs in Sydney, when he looked like he was going to come out and go ping and show how much ability he had. Never got warm in Cox Plate when missed start and never bothered trying after that. Fair effort in Mackinnon when nothing really made ground anyway. Drawn outside, will drop well back and pretty much everyone has had enough of him by now. No. 11-ROTHERA was a tough, tough performance to win on a bog track, but he was probably lucky to get the photo finish from the (2) who was finishing all over the top of him. 3rd up , 1200M/1400M and up in distance again today. Won 10 from 23, with only 1 placing, so he is very much an all or nothing type. 3 times winner over the 1600M is good – so many of these have dubious 1600M form. Just drying track is strongly against him, not hopeless on a dry track but wet track form is outstanding. Drop back horse, drawn barrier 1 in a big field he is going to get jammed on the inside here and struggle to get clear. Happy to risk today, conditions and barrier are against him. 12-CHASM has been around forever and is a bit hard to catch. Did show lots of ability early on, but then form seemed to taper off. Has been going really well this time in, his two straight track runs he has finished on really well, and he doesn’t even handle wet tracks. Much better on a dry track. Wasn’t beaten that far in the Toorak, but it was a bunched finish and there were plenty of hard luck stories. Seems to keep his best for Flem too. Drawn a nice barrier, but always drops well out of ground. His form is OK, so not hopeless, and down in the weights, just find him a bit hard to follow so going to pass on today. No 3rd W=$15.70 13-GOLD SALUTE has ability on his day, but you need to find that day when they don’t need to drag him kicking and screaming into the barriers like a kid being forced to go to the dentist. His Toorak run was actually pretty good, he was finishing off nicely, and with the 3 runs in was primed to do something at MV. But played up behind the barriers (yet again) and race was over before it even began. Won 3 from 6 at Flem and placed 5 from 6 so goes very well here. Drawn a nice barrier – hopefully one with lovely calming ocean views to try and settle him. To be honest we were on him last start and that was his last chance, always shown a lot of ability and always seemed likely to pick up one of these features, but beginning to wonder if it is ever going to happen. No 16-ALLEZ WONDER is one of Bart’s who we think is rather over rated. Only 3 wins from 23 starts, and only a measly 1 placing on top of that. She is an out and out dry tracker though so the improving weather is a big plus. Did win last year’s Toorak, but she had no weight and the run came at the perfect time. Fitter for the 2 runs in this time, and her 1st up run was pretty good when she was finishing on quite strongly. She probably won’t be far off them here today, so consider for trifectas and first fours, but we can’t have her. No Summary: This is always a race for those down in the weights, and often for long shots. You might as well scrap any form analysis and just pick those at the bottom of the weights, those drawn an OK barrier and those $15 or better. Top weights have only won this race 3 times in the last 25 years. In fact, no horse has carried more than 56.5 kgs in the last 25 years to win this race. As always a very tough even field, so apologies for rating so many winning / place chances. Bit hard to line these up, especially the ones coming through the Cox Plate cause most of them never got warm. Usually when you get to the last day of Cup week the track is all worn out, and you can happily back some strong finisher swooping down the middle of the track in this race. But suspect this year might be different, as the track was drying out on Thursday they were getting closer and closer to the rails and actually suspect the track might even favour on pacers today so watch the first couple of races. Other issue is there is not much speed here at all – so really want to find something with a nice barrier that is going to sit in the 1st half of the field. Suspect the drop back runner on milers are going to struggle. Only likely leaders are the two emergencies 17-GATHERING, 20-TRADER, and both are unlikely to get a run. In which case maybe 3-WALL STREET leads ? Or even 10-LUEN YAT FOREVER – jockey has been riding leaders to perfection last couple of weeks. Those racing handy are 5-SOUND JOURNEY, 15-SNOW ALERT (maybe?), 18-DEMERIT. But just doesn’t seem to be much pressure up front despite the big field. We are actually quite keen on the 4th emergency, 20-TRADER(emerg), fitter for the 4 runs in, bottom of weights, kicked nicely last start and will sit on speed. Main problem is getting into the bloody field. 9-DRUMBEATS the main danger, finished on really well last start, can race handier today and seems to go much better at Flem. 15-SNOW ALERT again strong finisher with no luck last start, just maybe would like to see them try and go forward from an outside barrier here. And yes we are going to throw in this silly Macau horses, 10-LUEN YAT FOREVER, still seems insane, but if you forget the Cox Plate run and it camps on pace here might cause a boilover – just looks worth a play bet at the odds. Solid chance to 18-DEMERIT as well, but we can’t tip all the emergencies. Tough race. Good luck ! One to risk: 11-ROTHERA 16th W=$11.10 Roughie: 10-LUEN YAT FOREVER 4th W=$33.50 The Key: Look at the bottom of the weights – pick an outsider, any outsider RESULTS : Absolutely crazy betting race - it was just about $10 the field. Four way finish and our brave roughie pick only just gets nosed out of a place, after contesting the lead most of the way down the straight and hitting the front about 80M out. 3-WALL STREET just bobs and gets the prize, to be honest would have wanted better odds about him in this field. Follow 7-DAO DAO who was wide all the way and was only his 3rd run in so plenty of improvement to come. Interesting to note the ones who fought out the finish had the solid 1600M records, so many horses contesting these feature miles don't actually have a very good 1600M record. |
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