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| FLEMINGTON : STAKES DAY - 5th Nov 2011 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 9M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Fine sunny day forecast for Saturday and suspect we will end up with a very firm track here. They were winning running on Derby Day because of the head wind. Cup Day, it was pretty even and those running on could get into the finish, but the on pacers often kicked and it did seem like the jockeys were going too wide. It was quite evident on Oaks Day that the track was turning to favour on pacers as it dried out, even though the rail stayed in the 3M position from Tuesday. How on earth IT”S PRINCE lasted to win the last we don’t know. Logic would say that on a wearing track it will favour those running on, but actually think there is a good chance that the on pace pattern from late on Oaks Day will continue. Generally on hard tracks on sunny drying days Flemington can get a little leaderish. So assume even racing, but watch the first few and be prepared if there is a leader’s pattern. Few form notes. - Super Moody stable have not had a winner all week, which is really unusual. Guess BLACK CAVIAR, might, just might get up for them ? Maybe ? Good luck as he tries to train a feature race first four ! - look at Race 4. 14 runners with 8 last start winners. 12 of the 14 have run a place in their last race. Totally impossible race to line up as any of them could go on so look for value here. - Race 8 : 1-BAUER will start very short and really is a class above these. Looks the winner, but will start very short. Probably should have won the Geelong Cup, beating the Melbourne Cup winner and would have been competitive in the Melbourne Cup where he just missed out on a start. Just be wary though that there is no speed in this race, and the track could favour those on pace. So maybe save with quinellas with the (4) and the (5) – who is the only on speed horse here. Unless they use the stable mate the (3) as a pace maker ? Seeing it is Cup week let’s double up our betting portfolio again, but have a few more bets and make them each way, and a few exotic variations. Think we went a bit narrow on Thursday with straight out win bets only and it cost us. RESULTS : Logic was right - we got the racing pattern totally wrong. The track comes up quite firm and strongly favours those running on down the middle of the track. Quite a few horses won from extreme outsider barriers. Absolute shocking day for punters, with a $300,000 plus quaddie, though guess if you were on the ball with the racing pattern there was some money to be made. We couldn't find a winner anywhere, though the betting portfolio didn't miss by much and wasn't far off the money. BEST BET : Race 2: 8-ERASET $20 WIN 2nd W=$5.90 QUINELLA : Race 2: 8-ERASET, 4-HAPPY TRAILS x $5 2nd 8-ERASET W=$5.90, 4th 4-HAPPY TRAILS W=$8.90 QUINELLA : Race 2: 8-ERASET, 12-NICASTRO x $5 SCR $5 This one just looks ready to win. Fitter for the 3 runs in and stormed home to only just miss last start at Caulfield. Placed 6 from 7 over the 1600M. Likes hard firm tracks. EXLUDED from last race went well here on Tues so form holds up. Best of all he meets his main rival the (4) here better on weights – a very nice 3kgs better off when there was nothing between them last start. Only query might be he does drop back so needs them to be running on and some speed. Back straight out and save on the quinella with the main rival the (4) and the value on pacer the (12) who went well here on Tuesday. RESULTS : Didn't miss by much here and would have put us into the black for the day. Came with a strong run down the middle of the track and looked the winner before one poked through late on the inside. Darn ! Saver quinellas and exactas are always a good back up plan when having a straight out win bet on one horse. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-SECRET ADMIRER $10 EW 3rd W=$6.90, P=$2.60 = $26 Let’s have something each way on our top pick in the main race. Very even field and great odds about many of these. Just really liked her Cox Plate run when she was the first to peel out and go for home, and made a very long sustained run and was still making ground at the end of the race. Might have to sneak through runners here on the inside, but she has a very powerful finishing burst when let loose which we might see today at its best. RESULTS : Pokes through late to be right in the finish, and if not for being held up slightly for a run back at the top of the straight probably would have challenged the winner here. Solid effort. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 11-SEA GALLEON $5EW X QUINELLA : Race 3: 11-SEA GALLEON, 2-TEXAN WARNEY x $5 X QUINELLA : Race 3 : 2-TEXAN WARNEY#4,7,9,10 x $2.50 = $10 X / 1st 10-MUSICAL HIT W=$16.10 We are a bit stuck here, we tipped the 11-SEA GALLEON as our best roughie on Thurs and it was scratched for this race, so we need to back it again – else suffer punters lament for dropping off. He is a stayer with some ability coming back after a year long lay off. Looking like he might get back to best form too, won 1st up – surprising after such a long break, and working home really well again 2nd up last start. He has pretty solid form – SA Derby place getter, solid run in MV Cup last year. This is a very even field though and we are also keen on the 2-TEXAN WARNEY who is a very tough consistent on pacer with excellent 2000M form and big plus is that he can roll on the speed here. Both are over 10-1, so let’s back the (11) each way, and realistically he probably wins or does nothing, and take the quinellas with the (2) who looks great value in the quinellas as he is just about always in the finish. RESULTS : OK, so looking back in hindsight betting on this race was a super foolish idea. Wide open race, $8 the field, our ones jump on the speed, which is not the racing pattern and are amongst the first beaten. Do find the value winner in the quinellas though. TRIFECTA : Race 7 : 5, 9 / 5,9,10,14 / 2,5,6,7,8,9,10,14,16(scr) x $14 = 33% X SCR $3 When we first glanced at this race we were really keen on the 9-PLATINUM PASSION. She has always shown a bit of potential, but just get the feeling she had gone up a notch this spring. Tough on pace win at Caulfield 2 starts back and then led in the Coogny into ferocious head win and all the on pacers were stopping dead that day. She kicked and was only run down in the last 50M. Huge run. Firm track suits and good chance on an on pace bias so she looks well suited and on pacers have won this race quite often in the last couple of years. Only problem is that there seems to be a lot of on pacers in this race – the (2), (8), (16) all go forward so jockey probably has to be aware and take a sit today. Main danger is the (5) and very wary of this one whose run last week here in the Myer was excellent weaving through and making late ground. They look the two stand out chances in this. There is going to be some nice value in the trifecta here in the big field, so take just those two to win, the (10) and the (14) look great place chances, especially the (14) with good sit off the speed from the barrier and go as wide as possible for third. RESULTS : We were totally off target there. Track is strongly favouring those running on and never a chance. BEST ROUGH : Race 4: 10-SLYVAN POWER $3EW X As we have already said this race is just crazy, so many last start winners and place getters, so many different form lines. Might as well just play with something at value. This one has only had the 2 starts and they have both been excellent, he flattens out and goes for home nicely. Even though up sharply in distance the way he ran on last start suggests the distance will suit. Likely to get a very nice smother back on the rails here in a race with a bit of speed and might just poke through at odds at the end of the race. Worth an each way play bet at around $25. RESULTS : Actually leads on turning on the inside, but that was not the place to be. Keep following this one might have some ability back to the right race. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4 : 3-MENTAL at around $5.50 4th W=$5.90 This is an utterly crazy race, so many last start winners and lightly raced horses on the up – really just about anything could win – even the rank outsider and bottom weight the (14). This one is going to start close to favourite, but is drawn out a little, normally races handy but there is a fair bit of speed here so is likely to get trapped wide. Bit hard to have a serious bet in such an even field with 14 different form lines to line up, so much easily just to lay the favourite. RESULTS : Actually a but lucky here, this one finished on really well and is worth following. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. RUNNING DOUBLE : Race 6 : 7,8,10,13,15 / 5,9 x 50 cents = $5 1st 7-ALBERT THE FAT W=$19.10 / 3rd 5-SKYERUSH W=$3.10 Often we get a value winner in the Emirates Stakes, down the bottom of the weights. So take a running double on some of the value runners into the (5) and the (9) who look likely to fight out Race 7. RESULTS : Not far off a collect here, finding the nice value winner of the Emirates Stakes, but the favourite in the 2nd leg starts far too short and is never a winning chance. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $34 NET : -$66 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. WATCH THE MORNING CARTOONS Race 2: 8-ERASET, 4-HAPPY TRAILS, 12-NICASTRO Race 3: 11-SEA GALLEON, 2-TEXAN WARNEY, 7-THE BLACK OAK Race 4: 10-SLYVAN POWER, 2-MAHISARA, 5-TONED Race 5: 3-BLACK CAVIAR, 5-MID SUMMER MUSIC, 2-BUFFERING Race 6: 8-SECRET ADMIRER, 13-DAO DAO, 10-TESTA MY PATIENCE Race 7: 9-PLATINUM PASSION, 5-SKYERUSH, 14-KY’S THE LIMIT Race 8: 1-BAUER, 4-BOOM’N’ZOOM, 5-PADDY O’REILLY Race 9: 8-STIRLING GROVE, 3-AMAETHON, 9-OUTLANDISH LAD |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-ERASET 2nd W=$5.90 4-HAPPY TRAILS 12-NICASTRO SCR |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-SEA GALLEON 2-TEXAN WARNEY 7-THE BLACK OAK |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-SLYVAN POWER 2-MAHISARA 2nd W=$7.40 5-TONED |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-BLACK CAVIAR 1st W=$1.04 *** woo hoo *** 5-MID SUMMER MUSIC 3rd W=$23.90 2-BUFFERING 2nd W=$37.60 Quinella : $5.00 Trifecta : $14.80 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SECRET ADMIRER 3rd W=$6.90 13-DAO DAO 10-TESTA MY PATIENCE |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-PLATINUM PASSION 5-SKYERUSH 3rd W=$3.10 14-KY’S THE LIMIT |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-BAUER 4-BOOM’N’ZOOM 5-PADDY O’REILLY 3rd W=$18.40 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-STIRLING GROVE 2nd W=$4.40 3-AMAETHON 3rd W=$3.60 9-OUTLANDISH LAD |
| RACE 6: EMIRATES STAKES 1600M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 8-SECRET ADMIRER 3rd W=$6.90 13-DAO DAO 10-TESTA MY PATIENCE |
| Others:11,2,7,15 Pace: EVEN Leaders : ??? Handy : 1-JIMMY CHOUX, 4-LOVE CONQUERS ALL, 5-TOORAK TOFF, 6-PINWHEEL , 8-SECRET ADMIRER , 10-TESTA MY PATIENCE , 12-PINNACLES , 13-DAO DAO , 16-RED TRACER (wide), 19-LORD PYRUS (emerg), Back : 2-WALL STREET , 3-DANLEIGH, 7-ALBERT THE FAT , 9-WOORIM , 14-LUEN YAT FOREVER , 15-YOSEI, 17-LARGO LAD (emerg), 18-WILLY JIMMY (emerg), 20-HE'S REMARKABLE (emerg) Chances: 2-WALL STREET is a super honest miler from NZ who has been going along as well as ever this spring. Worked home OK in the Toorak and then surprised he started such long odds in the Cox Plate, where he missed the start and was ridden cold and came home very hard late. Pretty good run. 9 times winner over the 1600M. Winner of this race last year in a 4 way finish. Carried 55.5 kgs to win this race last year and only carrying 56 kgs this year. Maybe the only worry with him is the inside barrier, if he misses the start again he is going to be out the back of this field and need a lot of luck. Likely to be squashed on the rails mid field at best and think he needs to get out and running in clear space to show his best. Last run was huge though and note that he meets the (1) 3.5 kgs better off here – that’s a pretty big weight turn around. Looks way over the odds at the $12 here. Chance 7-ALBERT THE FAT is another Sydney visitor with a excellent win strike rate. Fitter for the 3 runs in, but has gone 1200M/1200M/1400M and we really prefer them to have had a 1600M run or 2 x 1400M going into these tough competitive feature miles. Eye catching run at Caulfield last start when finishing very hard late indeed so you would think that the mile would suit here and meets the (4) slightly better on the weights. Only 1600M run was in this race last year when went forward which was against normal racing pattern. He is a winner, last run was good, drawn out in some space to drop back and run home and another with some chance. Chance. 1st W=$19.10 8-SECRET ADMIRER has been flying this campaign. Flying win in Epsom when up and running and beat the Cox Plate winner that day. Cox Plate run was actually extremely good, she was one of the first to go for home out wide, made a long sustained run and was still making ground in the straight. Huge effort. Meets the (1) 2kgs better off here which narrows the margin considerably. Think she will be better off at Flemington too. Drawn an inside barrier and good chance she can position closer to the speed here. Note that she is unbeaten in 2 starts over 1600M. Just really liked the Cox Plate run and think she is an extremely strong chance here. Go well. 3rd W=$6.90 10-TESTA MY PATIENCE has been on a rapid upward spiral this spring and is stepping up to the challenge. Flashed home 1st up, just got too far back 2nd up on a leaders track. Never in doubt when short priced favourite 3rd up. Very professional win in the Crystal mile when camped just on the speed and won by a clear margin. The on pacers did dominate that race though, and not much made ground. Only missed the place once in 14 starts – and that was a 4th. This is probably a fair bit harder. Drawn an inside barrier, races on the speed and good chance the inside going may be the place to be again. This is another step up in class, but looks to have everything going his way here so a solid chance. Chance. 11-KING'S ROSE has had a sensational spring and she is a very professional race horse. Memsie and Stocks Stakes wins were first class, she presents at the right time to run into the race and does everything right. Entered for the Epsom, but SCR with a minor setback and trainer said just short a run in the Toorak when again did everything right and just missed. Was keen about her chances in the Cox Plate, and she was competitive with PINKER PINKER in the Stock Stakes. She got the dream sit in the Cox Plate, on the rails behind the leader and thought she could win because of that. She came out to put herself into the race and got shut out and didn’t really put in after that – it is hard to tell if the run was disappointing or if she just lost momentum at a crucial stage and that was the end of that ? Jockey was very apologetic about the ride and did seem to think he was a genuine chance. Stable has had a horrible week so what are the chances of going out on a Group 1 win ? Nice barrier here to sit just off the speed in space, her previous form was excellent and think she is a very strong chance here. Chance. 2nd W=$9.00 13-DAO DAO is a very consistent type who has a solid 1600M record. This one really needs a dead set firm track and he is going to get that today and that is very important to note. Fitter for the 3 runs in, made very nice ground in the Rupert Clarke, and probably not suited to the tight turning MV where nothing really made ground in that race anyway. Drawn out, but he can go forward and race handy here. Has not won a race in Australia since April 2009 which is a very long time. But he has been consistently around the finish in these races over that time – string of Group 1 and Group 2 mile WFA placings and only narrowly beaten in a 4 way finish to this race last year. Note that he carries 2kgs less in this race this year. Just remember him here in the Autumn in the Blamey this track and distance where he kicked and WHOBEGOTYOU really had to pull out everything to run him down. 4 starts here at Flem – for 3 placings. Looks like a fresh horse that has been set for this, when so many others are continuing on for one more bonus run. Really like this one today and despite not having won for a while think he is good each way bet in this. Blinkers first time too. Strong chance. 15-YOSEI is very capable on her day and Group 1 winner over the QLD Winter against her own sex. Fitter for the 3 runs in and should just about be ready to do something. Run in Toorak was OK, she stuck to the rails and made a littler ground weaving through on the inside. Was entered to run last Sat here over 1200M, but scratched – not sure why ? Often they will swap straight track 1200M runs with mile runs. She was covered by most of these last start, but doesn’t have much weight there and just get the impression she is about to hit her peak this time in. Drawn a nice barrier, drops back, jockey won the Thousand Guineas on this one with a dream run on the rails, also known as the ALLEZ WONDER split, and she might be able to do it again here. Always worth looking at light weighted outsiders in this race so think she is some rough chance. Rough. Place: 1-JIMMY CHOUX is a very highly rated NZer who was very competitive in the Cox Plate when he probably just hit the lead a little too early, but had to take the run. Dominant over in NZ and beat most of his rivals over there. Drawn out is a plus, can sit in clear space in a capacity field. He is all class. Better suited at WFA though, he comes into this not weighted the best, meeting the (2) 3.5kgs worse off for 0.5L and the (8) 2kgs worse off for 0.5L. Both of those finished very close to him in the Cox Plate. Topweights have a really bad record in this race, it is so often won by value runners down in the weights. This guy is all class though. Suspect he will be in the finish, he would have to be really top class to win under this weight scale though – which he may well be, but prefer place. Place.4th W=$5.00 12-PINNACLES is as tough as they come, 8YO, 60 starts, but seems to be running as good as ever. Nice win with big weight in the Sale Cup and gets a substantial weight drop here. Not far off a few of these in the Epsom the start before that. Camped on speed and right in the finish of the Rupert Clarke too. Really flying at the moment. Drawn out a bit here and probably gets caught wide sitting handy if they go forward. He was tagged a non winner for a long time, so amazing to see how he has turned it all around. Have to admit, despite winning the Sale Cup last start, and his Doncaster placing way back in 2008 always thought he was better over the 1400M and the 1600M just found him out. That Sale Cup win was his first win over 1600M in 8 tries. Rough place chance only as he is going so well. 14-LUEN YAT FOREVER is one we know extremely well having tipped him quite a few times now with no success. First 3 runs in this campaign were all excellent. He flew home late first up at Caulfield. Then baulked for runs at a crucial stage in the Rupert Clarke when finishing extremely well. In the Toorak he was coming and coming and just didn’t get there. Just seemed to get a little lost around MV and worth remembering that his worse run was there in the Cox Plate last year, so looks like it is not his track. Just starting to chalk up a few convictions now, yet to win in Australia in a dozen starts or so. He ran a very close up 4th in this race last year, when he went forward, hit the lead early and still just had the lead 50M to go. He just seems a little one paced, he grinds away, but just lacks that extra bit of turn of foot to win one of these. Suspect he may go better ridden forward as he always sticks on, but drawn out today means he will almost certainly drop back. Can forgive the MV run though, so his other form is good and a place chance here. Place. 16-RED TRACER is another you could make some case for, lightly raced, good win strike rate and yet to miss a place in 12 starts. Excellent run in the Epsom when led and it is damn hard to lead and win these feature miles. Does meet the winner from there the (8) 2kgs better off too. That was her first try over the 1600M and she seemed to go OK. Probably goes forward here from outside barrier – guess that is the query here, running out a strong 1600M after being used up early. Just watch how the track is racing, if the on pacers are winning probably elevate her into a solid rough winning chance, else still think she is a decent place chance. Place. Sacking: 3-DANLEIGH is a traditional runner in these feature miles. Fitter for the 3 runs in, but really hasn’t shown much form this time in. Best form in on rain affected tracks and strikes a very firm track here. Just seems to really struggle at the 1600M – only 1 win from 11 starts over the distance and contested these sort of races quite a few times and not been a factor. Probably drops back here from inside barrier and would need luck in the straight. No 4-LOVE CONQUERS ALL is a Sydney visitor was who impressive winning at Caulfield, but did get the perfect cover on a day with a strong head wind. Did carry the same weight as the (6) and the (7) that day and has to give them 1kgs and 1.5kgs here which should narrow the margin. Class horse with good winning strike rate, and should go forward here from OK barrier and camp just off the speed. Question mark is probably going to be the 1600M here, though he has had only one try at the distance and he went OK so probably too early to tell. Just prefer to be on the place getters behind him from Caulfield, they were finishing on strongly, they get a bit of a weight turn around today and just suspect they might be stronger at the end of the 1600M. Passing 5-TOORAK TOFF is a classy type who is a Group 1 winner which is important so he is right up to this level. Hard, firm ground suits this one and drawn a nice barrier to go forward and sit on the speed. Good win strike rate and is a class runner. Main problem here is the 1600M is a huge query – and you really have to be able to run a very strong mile in this sort of company – big field always very competitive. Jockey reported that he failed to run out the 1600M in the Toorak, which seemed obvious to anyone watching the race. He got a perfect sit just off the pace that day, and had every chance. 3 x 1600M runs for nothing. Other two 1600M runs have not been that bad, but have to leave him out today. No 6-PINWHEEL is very consistent, placed a whopping 22 times from 27 starts and is going along OK. Another who worked home nicely last start at Caulfield, but probably just prefer the run of the (7) who was finishing on the better. Can race on speed, but is drawn wide, but wonder if they might go forward here regardless as there isn’t all that much speed in this despite the big field. That was also his 5th run in this time and just wonder if some of the others have more improvement in them. Never had a run over the 1600M either and in a super even field with a stack of form think that is enough to go past this one. Passing. 9-WOORIM has an awful lot of ability, but probably doesn’t win as often as he should because he always drops so far back in his races. Needs a fast pace and for them to be running on well. Stormed home to win here last week – but the track was strongly favouring on pacers that day. Despite the big field not sure that the pace here is going to be that fast either. Only had the 2 starts over the 1600M – MV run was OK when it was a leader’s track and he was carrying a whopping weight. Worked home OK in the Toorak. Drawn middle barrier but still likely to be giving these a big start, chance the track will still be favouring on pacers and speed here might be an issue. Just prefer to risk him because of his racing style and think you are better off looking at others. Risking. 17-LARGO LAD (emerg) has a bit of talent, but is frustratingly difficult to follow and only makes the briefest of guest appearances at the races every now and then. Obviously has had a lot of injury problems with only 4 starts since Jan 2010. Fitter for the 2 runs in, but gone 1200M/1400M and up in distance again today, Firm track suits, but just drops so far back in his races and needs a fast pace and the runners on to be winning. Also worth noting he has won 6 races – but 3 of these were 1st up. He is basically just a good fresh horse. Not here. 18-WILLY JIMMY (emerg) is a Sydney visitor who maintains a pretty good win strike rate. Only had the 3 runs in since a 2 month break with plenty of trials in between, but probably a bit of improvement to come today for this one. Not far off some of these in the Epsom, worth noting he was 2nd up and up in distance that day and probably has a bit of improvement to come, and meets the (8) 1.5kgs better off from that run. 5 times winner over the 1600M is a big plus too. 2nd emergency so unlikely to get a run and main problem here is the wide barrier – (20) – really a tough ask in a capacity field. Probably will go OK if gets a run but have to leave out here. No 19-LORD PYRUS (emerg) is an average 1400M to 1600M horse who is flying a bit high here probably. Lightly weighted outsider – and they do have a good record in this race. Firm track suits, and although drawn wide probably goes forward here as he often does. At peak now with the 4 runs in and Sale Cup run was good, but is badly weighted against the (12) who won that race and still meets him 2 kgs worse off here. Scooted forward in the Toorak and didn’t do much, and although he has won over 1600M and 1800M before still suspect that the 1400M is his best distance. Would have to be used up to go forward here from outsider barrier and this is too tough an ask. No 20-HE'S REMARKABLE (emerg) is a NZ visitor who had a bit of support to start favourite in the Crystal mile at MV. He went OK there, hooking out to run on late in a race that was dominated by those racing on the speed. Drawn OK, light weight, but main problem here as fourth emergency he has stuff all chance of getting a run. No Summary: This is always an incredibly tough race, but this year is just about the toughest we can remember. The field is packed with fit, in form, horses, and so many horses with good winning strike rates. Extremely even field. So many lightly raced horses with good form. It is quite astounding actually. Often you do get a value winner down in the weights in this race, but think this race has a lot more depth than normal. Barriers are important in a capacity field and just be wary if the firm track starts to favour those racing on the speed. Top weights have only won this race 3 times in the last 25 years, and the last 10 winners have all carried under 56 kgs. In fact 2-WALL STREET last year was the only horse to have carried over 54kgs and win this race in the last ten years. History is strongly against the 1-JIMMY CHOUX here, he is good – but is he that good ? (although to be fair the bottom limits have problem gone up in that time). It is also worth watching out for fresh horses on the scene here. Most of these have been through the Cox Plate, which was their spring target, so this is their last run before going for a spell and one or more will be past their best. There actually does not seem to be much speed here at all. If 19-LORD PYRUS (emerg) starts then he probably crosses the field to lead, else it would be 16-RED TRACER working from an outside barrier to go forward and probably 4-LOVE CONQUERS ALL, 5-TOORAK TOFF, 10-TESTA MY PATIENCE sitting off him. But doesn’t actually look like they will go that quickly which could make it tough for the dead set back markers. We are keen on the 8-SECRET ADMIRER here though. That Cox Plate run was outstanding, long sustained run and still making ground in the straight and Epsom win was very flashy. Probably just prefer to see her mid field or better from a good barrier with not much speed here. 13-DAO DAO the compulsory roughie to throw into this race, just cause they so often do well, bit fresher than most of these, hasn’t been through the Cox Plate and the hard firm track and 1600M is his go. 10-TESTA MY PATIENCE on the rise, this is probably a big jump in class, but not much speed here, drawn inside and going to get every chance. 15-YOSEI a super rough chance, for no other reason that you have to find a super rough chance at the bottom of the weights in this race. 7-ALBERT THE FAT the other value runner here. But no surprise to see any of about a half dozen of these get up in win. Will be a fascinating race to watch. One to risk: 4-LOVE CONQUERS ALL 5th W=$6.60 Roughie: 15-YOSEI The Key: Even field – so barriers and position in running very important. RESULTS : Pace is even and the track is strongly favouring those running on. We do give a good push for the value winner 7-ALBERT THE FAT, but you do have to wonder if he would have won without the perfect barrier (outside), perfect ride and perfect spot in running (fast lane down middle of track). 11-KING'S ROSE super consistent again, her form this spring has been simply outstanding, WFA wins, set weights win, and only a nose away in two feature Group 1 miles - makes you think getting blocked for a run there in the Cox Plate did make the difference. Follow her in the autumn, she will go on. 8-SECRET ADMIRER excellent held up slightly early in the straight else would have made a contest of it. 1-JIMMY CHOUX consistent and tough effort despite not being suited at the weights. Not much between these at all. |
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