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| FLEMINGTON: STAKES DAY - 10th Nov 2012 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 8M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): There has been rain threatening all week, but really very little has actually appeared so this track has stayed pretty firm all week. Again a few showers around, but track likely to stay DEAD or better. Come Stakes Day the track can often favour those running on late as the track starts to wear out. It was noticeable that they were winning running on at the end of Oaks Day which is the normal pattern on a wearing track. Down the straight the jockeys still keep making the mistake of going too wide, and most of the winners are sticking closer to the rails, though there does seem to be a fast lane roughly at the middle of the course that they all want to try and get into. Stakes Day is a good day to have a bet in terms of quality races and competitive fields, but a few times in the last ten years we have had a day full of bizarre results and blowouts so just be wary and see how the day is unfolding. Think that probably occurs cause most of these horses are having their last run for spring, so most are close to the end of their preparations so you can get some funny results. Keep an eye on the fresh horses coming through today. Few shorties in a few races which is unusual, but some wide open fields to challenge us as well. Plenty to bet on today so let’s double up to $100, more because we want to take some quinellas and doubles and try and score some decent collects. Quite a few solid each way bets around the $10 mark today to play with. Spreading the bets around which seems to have worked so far this week. RESULTS: There is a little bit of rain over night meaning the day kicks off on a DEAD(5), but dries out quickly on a fine sunny day. As the day progresses on a drying track the best ground does appear to be close to the rails and the on pacers kick on well in most races. Betting Portfolio and selections both bomb out badly at the end of a long tough week for punters. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 6-TIGER TEES $5 EW 4th W=$18.50 QUINELLA: Race 5: 6-TIGER TEES # 1,5,10,11,13 x $2 = $10 X / 1st 5-MENTAL W=$6.50 QUINELLA: Race 5: 5,6,10,11,13 boxed x 50 cents = $5 1st 5-MENTAL W=$6.50, 2nd 10-SEA SIREN W=$4.30 Quinella = $4.65 Fantastic that we have finally got an open field in a feature sprint after so many years of short priced favourites. There are an absolute stack of winning chances here, but the (6) is really sticking out at the $18 on offer. Backing up after a good run down the straight last week and often horses who back up during Cup Week keep their form and go just as well. Really liked the run last week when he knuckled down and chased hard, but best of all he gets a substantial weight turn around of 4.5 kgs against the (8) and 1kgs against the (3). Good win strike rate, drawn a nice middle barrier and can go forward and just sit behind the ample speed here and most importantly probably hits that fast lane down the middle of the track. Just really like the way he finished off last week and expect him to do the same again. Very even field though, so back each way, and take some quinellas which are sure to pay well, with the main other dangers the (1) who is the class horse but just worried he might not be in the right part of the track, the (5) who flashed home nicely last start, the (10) who is the class sprinter at the moment, the (11) who might be under rated, fitter for the 2 runs in and was working home well at MV and might be a straight track horse and the (13) at odds who is fitter for the 2 runs in, never got a clear run at Caulfield and is going to be suited finishing hard off a fast speed. Complicated, but plenty of value here, so back each way, take a quinella with the top pick and save with a box quinella as well just in case as likely to be a decent dividend in a big field. RESULTS: This one jumps and puts himself in prime position, but is outclassed when it gets to the business end of the race. We get back the 5 horse box quinella which is a pittance, but also rather cleverly cover the trifecta 5-10-11 which pays $218 and the first four 5-10-11-6 which pays $3526. Clever that is in that of course we didn't take them. BEST WIN: Race 8: 4-FOLDING GEAR, 12-DARE TO DREAM, 7-IRONSTEIN $5 WIN 2nd 7-IROENSTEIN W=$18.70 There is a short priced favourite in this race the 11-PUISSANCE DE LUNE who is obviously going to be hard to beat coming off a 8 length thrashing in the Bendigo Cup. But worth remembering that another grey stayer BAUER got beaten in this race last year at even money. These staying races are always full of hard fit stayers and are often much more even than appear at first glance so it pays to back a few. Therefore, happy to back three at better odds here. The (4) has been going along really well and was extremely unlucky in the Caulfield Cup when he was running into it and got squashed between horses and had to stop and start again – was really a huge run and he might be a lot better than we thought. The (12) finished on really hard last week here in the Lexus and the form from there looks really good with the winner running a good race in the Melbourne Cup, and 4 of the last 5 winners of this race have backed up from the Lexus race into this. The (7) has been racing well, doesn’t win out of turn, but won this race last year and was pretty unlucky in the MV Cup when couldn’t get off the inside rail. Happy to back all these 3 straight out to win with over the odds considering we have a shortie going around in this field. RESULTS: Well the favourite 11-PUISSANCE DE LUNE strolls around the bend in a lazy canter and slaughters them. In hindsight a saver exacta may have been a good idea. BEST PLACE: Race 6: 16-SPIRIT SONG $4 WIN $10 PLACE X QUINELLA: Race 6: 10-FAWKNER, 16-SPIRIT SONG x $3 2nd 10-FAWKNER W=$4.80 QUINELLA: Race 6: 16-SPIRIT SONG #4,6,8,13 x $2 = $8 X / 3rd 8-SECRET ADMIRER W=$12.30 The value runner in the main race is definitely the 16-SPIRIT SONG, who is tough, on pace, never missed a place over the mile and is nicely weighted in a race where those down in the weights often win. Might just get swooped over the top by one finishing hard late, but likely to be in the finish at odds. Should poke through and get into the finish and the place odds of $4.50 look pretty appealing at the moment. We had a nice collect in the Toorak with her in the quinella so back the place and take some quinellas around the other chances. Better chuck a few dollars on to win cause you know what happens if you only back them to place hey? RESULTS: 16-SPIRIT SONG puts in the worse run of her career and misses a place for the first time over the distance. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 5-CHOSEN MOMENT $5 EW X QUINELLA: Race 4: 5-CHOSEN MOMENT, 7-GENERALIFE x $2 X QUINELLA: Race 4: 5-CHOSEN MOMENT, 6-HAUSSMANN x $2 X This race is always incredibly difficult with about 200 different form lines to try and line up, but maybe the safest way to go is each way on the (5) at around $11. Fitter for the 2 runs in, came hard and late 1st up and just missed, and 2nd up missed the start but still worked home well. Just drawn a nice barrier here and should sit on the speed over the Flem 1400M which is always important and just looks the safest way to go in a very even field. Pop a few quinellas with the other selections to try and snare a collect. RESULTS: Never likely BEST EACH WAY : Race 9: 3-UTAH SAINTS $5 EW X If you are looking to get out for the week in the last, this one looks a solid each way bet at around $14. Fitter for the 3 runs in, will go forward here over the Flem 1400M, placed 4 from 5 this track and distance and actually doesn’t seem to be that much on pace pressure in this race so should give a fair bit of kick. Looks a safe each way bet to end the day. RESULTS: Looms up in the straight but fails to go on. BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 6-MODULE $3 EW X There is a short priced favourite in this race, the 3-SERTORIUS who is flying at the moment and is going to be very hard to beat, but think it is worth having a little dabble on this one as well at around $21. Fresh horse on the scene, should have plenty of improvement to come and fitter for the 2 runs in and ran on pretty well late last start. Solid Flemington form and 2000M form and guess that is the only slight query you could put on the favourite here who probably isn’t really proven over this longer distance yet so might be slightly vulnerable. Just an little each way dabble at $21. RESULTS: Never likely LAY OF THE DAY: Race 9: 8-TOKUGAWA at around $3.50 3rd W=$4.00 This is actually one we follow and have had a few collects on, so bit cautious about making it Lay of the Day, but coming into the last race of the week the last thing you want to do is back a $3.50 favourite. Has been going along really well this spring and probably the drop back to the 1400M suits, but beginning to wonder if he is just a MV horse and besides this last race of the day can often throw up some funny results with lots of fresh horses on the scene. If you want to get out for the week – find something at odds and go for it. Happy to lay this one at the current odds of $3.50. RESULTS: Again lucky to get out here, as he pokes through on the inside to get his head into the finish but just finds one better. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. DAILY DOUBLE: Races 6,8: 4,8,10,13,16 / 4, 12 x 50 cents = $5 2nd 10-FAWKNER W=$4.80, 3rd 8-SECRET ADMIRER W=$12.30 / X Sure to be plenty of value in the Daily Double, especially if the short priced favourite gets beaten in the 2nd leg. So take the main winning chances in each leg, even though we are doubling up on other bets we have placed already – hopefully that just means we will get to win twice. RESULTS: So close in the first leg, but favourite easily wins the second leg. RESULT: RETURN SPENT: $100 RETURN: $4.65 NET: $-95.35 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 8-IL CAVALLO, 5-CITATIONS, 11-DIVA DEE Race 2: 3-GALAH, 8-GOOD VALUE, 12-I FEEL GOOD Race 3: 6-MODULE, 3-SERTORIUS, 7-DESTINY’S KISS Race 4: 5-CHOSEN MOMENT, 7-GENERALIFE, 6-HAUSSMANN Race 5: 6-TIGER TEES, 10-SEA SIREN, 11-HALLOWELL BELLE Race 6: 10-FAWKNER, 16-SPIRIT SONG, 8-SECRET ADMIRER Race 7: 1-SILENT ACHIEVER, 6-FULL OF SPIRIT, 10-ROCK HIT Race 8: 4-FOLDING GEAR, 12-DARE TO DREAM, 7-IRONSTEIN Race 9: 3-UTAH SAINTS, 6-TESTASCANA, 13-BERENGER |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-IL CAVALLO SCR 5-CITATIONS 11-DIVA DEE |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-GALAH 2nd W=$2.80 8-GOOD VALUE 1st W=$11.30 12-I FEEL GOOD Quinella: $18.30 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-MODULE 3-SERTORIUS 1st W=$3.00 7-DESTINY’S KISS |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-CHOSEN MOMENT 7-GENERALIFE 6-HAUSSMANN |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-TIGER TEES 10-SEA SIREN 2nd W=$4.30 11-HALLOWELL BELLE 3rd W=$13.50 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-FAWKNER 2nd W=$4.80 16-SPIRIT SONG 8-SECRET ADMIRER 3rd W=$12.30 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SILENT ACHIEVER 6-FULL OF SPIRIT 10-ROCK HIT |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-FOLDING GEAR 12-DARE TO DREAM 7-IRONSTEIN 2nd W=$18.70 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-UTAH SAINTS 6-TESTASCANA 13-BERENGER |
| RACE 6: EMIRATES STAKES GROUP 1 1600M |
| Tips: 10-FAWKNER 2nd W=$4.80 16-SPIRIT SONG 8-SECRET ADMIRER 3rd W=$12.30 |
| Others: 4,13,6 Pace: FAST Leaders: 1-FAT AL, 12-ROLLING PIN (wide), 14-PEAR TART (wide), 18-STAR OF GISELLE (emerg) (wide) Handy: 6-AMBIDEXTER, 9-STREAMA, 11-HAPPY ZERO, 16-SPIRIT SONG, 17-FREE WHEELING (emerg), 19-OVER QUOTA (emerg) Back: 2-HAPPY TRAILS, 3-PLAYING GOD, 4-SOLZHENITSYN, 5-WALL STREET, 7-HE'S REMARKABLE, 8-SECRET ADMIRER, 13-YOSEI, 15-SMOKIN' JOEY, 20-STRIKE THE STARS (emerg) Chances: 4-SOLZHENITSYN has been racing extremely well all spring. Finished on really well in the Rupert Clarke on a track that was strongly favouring those on speed, then launched down the middle of the track in the Toorak and right in the finish of the Crystal mile when probably not suited around MV and needs a bit more space to wind up. Was working home pretty well there once he got balanced again after the turn. Strong finishing miler in top form and that is the type you want for this race. Firm track will suit. Again up to the 58kgs, but the top half of this field are all on that weight so the history of those up in the weights in this race is likely to be re-written. Barrier 2 probably not ideal, another who wants to make a long sweeping run down the middle of the track. But on form he is probably the one to beat here. Strong chance. 6-AMBIDEXTER is another lightly raced Sydney miler who went pretty well in the Epsom and gets 1kgs more off the (1) here today. Probably slightly disappointing in the Crystal Mile, but that was a bit of a funny run race in a small field so not sure you can pay too much attention to the form. Did just sort of grind away though. Fitter for the 3 runs in and should be right at peak for this race. Yet to win past 1400M but has been competitive over further so should be able to run out the mile just fine. Big plus with this one is the nice middle barrier and that he can race handy and make his own luck, which is so important in these feature miles –so often the backmarkers drop out and have hard luck stories. Note blinkers first time here too. So whilst they are out the back searching for runs this one will be scooting for home and on that basis alone rates a strong chance here. Strong chance. 8-SECRET ADMIRER is a classy strong finishing miler who has been going along OK this time in without being outstanding. Just seemed a little one paced in her Sydney runs, she would work home, but not with the same gusto she showed last spring. Set for the Caulfield Cup which looked an unusual choice which didn’t really come off. Ran really well here last Saturday in a blanket finish in the Myer where didn’t get much room to poke through and always worth following those who have ran well over Cup week backing up again. She needs time to wind up and she couldn’t really get clear till late last week. Ran 3rd in this race last year, not beaten very far, but realistically her form was actually a lot better last year. Outside barrier here so will have to drop back and come down the middle of the track late, but that is her racing pattern and so often the way this race is run so that shouldn’t be an issue. Chance. 3rd W=$12.30 10-FAWKNER is in career best form and has really gone up a notch this time in. 4 times winner at the 1600M, 5 times winner at Flemington, you don’t get much better stats than that. Going for 4 wins on end and all the wins this time in have been super impressive, and he has looked to have his opposition well covered. Up to the 1600M here today, but solid 1600M form and the race here last week was run at a very fast speed so was probably closer to a mile race. That race often throws up the winner of this race too. Maybe just the inside barrier a slight concern as he is probably better racing outside horses. Slightly worse off at the weights against the (5) from last week but just seems to be flying at the moment. Probably wants to get to the outside from barrier 3 though? Definitely the one to beat here. Strong chance. 2nd W=$4.80 13-YOSEI is a very hard horse to catch and does have a lot of quirks still – even after 30 starts. Her best form has been on tracks with some give and the Sydney way of going but she does keep teasing with her runs in Melbourne. Ran home strongly in the Epsom, then probably should have gone close to winning the Toorak when was inside of runners and wouldn’t peel off to dive through a gap. She raced very erratically here last week in the Myer, again stuck on the inside of runners, and was finishing on OK, but just wouldn’t take the runs and kept shifting out – the run last week was much, much better than it looks on paper. She is nicely weighted getting 2kgs from the (4) from the Toorak when beaten < 1 length. Her 1600M form is starting to look a little ordinary, but that often happens when they only compete in these feature Group 1s. Her Flemington form is starting to look even worse – 9 starts for just the one third. She is drawn middle today which is good, barrier 1 last week was obviously an issue and pulled out to the middle of the track she is a genuine chance here. Hard to back with confidence, but she is probably the one most likely of a upset here. Rough chance. 4th W=$20.00 16-SPIRIT SONG is one of our favourite horses and a super consistent on pace mare. We tipped her in the Toorak and thought she was going to pinch the race at odds when she poked through on the inside and hit the lead. She just battled away at MV the start after behind the (18), but she is meeting that one 2.5kgs better off today. She is only a little thing and think the 59kgs really bogged her down last start. Good dry track form, and the big tick here – good 1600M form and is yet to miss the place in 9 starts over this distance –which is really impressive. Plenty to like about this one, she can sit just behind the speed here and poke through again at the right time, she meets the (4) a very nice 3.5kgs off from the Toorak for just a 0.5L defeat and she is just honest and consistent. Always prefer to back those down in the weights in this and she looks a really strong chance here. Quite keen again. Strong chance. Place: 1-FAT AL is a lightly raced Sydney miler with a excellent win strike rate. Stable has had an utterly horrific spring and are probably due to win a feature race. Has genuine 1600M form which is a big plus, so many times horses competing in these races don’t have that great a record over the 1600M. Only had the 3 runs this time in, so should still have plenty to give here, which is good as sometimes the Sydney visitors can have already peaked by the time they get to this race. Drawn inside barrier and likely to go forward here – and this race is normally won by strong finishers. This race was won by ALBERT THE FAT last year – could this be the start of the golden age of Fat Als ? It is the weight here that is the big issue, 58 kgs, this race really isn’t a race for top weights, though with the weight scale squeezing up over the years it is probably becoming less of an issue. Just jumping 6kgs on the Epsom win looks a decent task. Should be in this for a long way, but leading and weight just want to look towards others – especially with a bit of pressure up front here. Prefer place. 5-WALL STREET is a NZ feature miler with a very impressive 1600M record – a whopping 9 wins, and has competed in this race the last 2 years, wining in 2010 with 55.5 kgs and finishing 6th last year with 56 kgs. In previous years he has had 4 or more lead up runs into this race and has come through the Cox Plate, and his form has actually been a lot better. Guess this time in he is going to be fresher though. Only the 2 runs in, and had 2 months off between runs which looks like he has had some injury issues. Ran on nicely here last Sat off a furious tempo, and actually meets the (10) 2kgs better off from that run. Has to be said though the (10) came from behind him and went straight past him. Drawn out , will drop back and run on down the middle of the track. Just get the impression he has had a few issue this time in though and is a bit behind where he should be. Prefer place. 15-SMOKIN' JOEY is coming through a different form line than most of these. He has been going along OK this campaign, but probably short of his best. Finished on well 1st up down the straight, run in the Rupert Clarke was excellent when finished on really well on a track that was strongly favouring on pacers and then disappointing when favourite 2 starts back under a big weight. Not far from them under a very big weight at Sale so he is going along OK. Few things are a worry though – the 5 starts now at the 1600M for no placings, and the 7 starts at Flemington for just the 1 win. Drawn a nice barrier, will appreciate the drop in weights here today, but unsure as to how well he really is going but think he is probably the value runner for your trifectas as a place chance if you want to try and grab a decent dividend. Place. 17-FREE WHEELING (emerg) is a bit fresher than a lot of those only having had the 2 runs in and looks to have plenty of improvement to come. Going into this 3rd up off a 1200M and a 1400M run. Drawn nicely and can take up a handy position if he gets into the field. Yet to race past 1500M though and unproven at the distance. Likely to get a good run here and looks to have lots of upside and it is the lower weighted horses that normally win this race. Meets the (10) 1.5 kgs better off from last week too, but they did make their runs together and the other one really went straight past this one. Should be thereabouts – just prefer place. 18-STAR OF GISELLE (emerg) has been flying this spring, going up rapidly through the classes and taking everything in her stride. She just might be much, much better than we thought – we used to think she could just get 1400M on a soft lead, but she has strung 3 wins together – all identical – she gets a soft lead and just kicks and they can’t run her down. 3 wins from 3 starts over 1600M now. Doesn’t meet the (16) very well on weights here from last start, yet another on pacer who has drawn wide so the early tempo is going to be furious. This isn’t a leaders race, it is a light weights race, but there just seems to be so much pressure up front here you would think it is going to set it up for the backmarkers ? Still she is going so well still give her some rough chance with no weight. Rough. Sacking: 2-HAPPY TRAILS has had an absolutely sensational spring and it was great to see him go up a level and finally live up to this potential. Previously he was famous for unlucky runs, being held up or running on too late in these feature miles, but this spring , ridden more forward he has been a competitive WFA horse. Form looks really good now in the Dato Tan when he managed to hold off the eventual Melbourne Cup winner who looked to have him well and truly covered. Even effort in the Turnbull and the 2000M was really a bit of a query so no surprise to see him struggle in the Cox Plate. This is more his thing, feature mile, drawn out so might drop back a little again. Unfortunately now he is at the top of the weights, compared to the 52 kgs he carried in the last Doncaster. Just a bit worried about going through the Cox Plate, and how much that may have taken out of him. Think you want a fresh horse here set for this race, and just wonder if he might be close to the end of his spring preparation. Prefer to risk today. No 1st W=$13.10 3-PLAYING GOD has been a bit of a disappointment in his previous visits to Melbourne in that he never really seemed to bring his best WA form with him. Had a few Spring and Autumn campaigns over here and whilst he managed to be thereabouts in the major races, he always tended to loom up and not quite finish it off - but suck plenty of punters in for his next start. Guess his Flem 1600M form reads pretty well, 4th in a Makybe Diva, and 3rd in an Australia Guineas, so maybe he is just better at a mile. Firm track here will suit. Been given a very light lead in with only the 2 x 1200M runs this time in which is a bit of an unusual lead up. Another with weight, but the weight scale is now different and there are quite a few runners here with 58kgs. Main issue here is the barrier – barrier 1 – he is a roomy run on down the middle of the track horse and often tends to race a bit sideways, the barrier is a real worry. Been stung plenty of times following him in Melbourne before and happy to risk him today. No 7-HE'S REMARKABLE is a NZ visitor who really hasn’t had much luck in Australia so surprised they bothered to come back. He didn’t make the field for this race last year, but was impressive winning one of the earlier races on the card that day, then lost the Group 1 Railway on a controversial protest decision. Has genuine 1600M form – you like to see lots of 1600M wins in that form break down. Had the 3 runs in over in NZ which have been OK, without being outstanding and has been given a decent 5 week break going into this which looks unusual. Drawn out and likely to drop back here. Just a bit hard to know how he is going, and in a very even field that is probably enough to leave him out today. No. 9-STREAMA has been mixing her form a little but has a stack of ability when right. Bit of a surprise move to go forward at Caulfield, but she worked early and just kept on going in a very strong win. Set the same task last week here in the Myer, they went hard early except this time she didn’t find very much. Interesting to see what they do here today from barrier 16 – drop back or go forward? Considering she came unstuck here last week going forward you would think they might think twice about it, and there are a few who will be wanting to go forward form outside barriers today.. Just think from an awkward barrier though and coming off a poor run last week probably prefer to be on others coming through that race and happy to let her run today. No 11-HAPPY ZERO has had only the 2 runs in, 1200M , 1400M and really prefer them to have 3 runs in or 2 x 1400M runs leading into these feature miles. Worked home OK last start at Caulfield and should still have plenty of improvement to come. Drawn a nice barrier and can probably settle a bit closer than usual. Hasn’t won past 1400M though, and just seems a little close to his better performed rivals here on weights. No 12-ROLLING PIN is a Sydney visitor with a good win strike rate coming through a lead up run down the straight here last week which is a bit of an unusual lead up. Sydney form is very solid and makes his own luck rolling on the speed. On pace horses don’t normally win this race though, he has drawn barrier 19 which is going to mean a lot of work to go forward and has had a pretty long preparation so you just wonder how much improvement there is to come. Prefer to risk. 14-PEAR TART is fitter for the 3 runs in and the run at Caulfield was good sticking on well on speed. Blanket finish here last week and didn’t really produce, but wasn’t disgraced either. She is yet another runner drawn out here who wants to go forward so a lot of these are going to be used up burning across the field. Her form is better on genuine wet tracks which looks very unlikely here and last week was her first try at the 1600M so she could be some query at the distance. Risking. 19-OVER QUOTA (emerg) is a super consistent country miler who looks to be flying a bit too high here. Fitter for the 3 runs in, had some solid mile runs this time in, thereabouts in the finish of his last two and 7 times winner over the 1600M. Just lobs on the pace and keeps on popping up at big odds so is very under rated. Drawn to get a very nice sit here, but realistically unlikely to get into the field and looks outclassed even if he does. No 20-STRIKE THE STARS (emerg) has pretty much no hope of getting into the field as 4th emergency. 3rd up and fitter or the 2 runs in, which have been OK, but he is definitely looking for more ground. No weight, staying type, fast speed and run on pattern here will suit so will probably run better than expected if he gets into the field and he is just about due to show something, but not against these. No Summary: This race often throws up a value winner, and normally you want to look at a strong finishing miler coming down the middle of the track as the pressure is normally on in this race and the track pattern often favours those finishing on late. Normally it is those down in the weights that win this race too, in fact only one horse has carried over 54kgs to win this race in the last 10 years. However, the weight scales keep increasing the minimum weight and this year we have quite a few runners on 58 kgs so obviously that pattern is going to change with increasing weight scales. The pace here looks quite solid with 1-FAT AL leading from the inside, but 12-ROLLING PIN , 14-PEAR TART, 18-STAR OF GISELLE (emerg) will all be looking to cross form outside barriers so the early speed could be quite quick. Behind them racing handy should be 6-AMBIDEXTER, 9-STREAMA, 16-SPIRIT SONG, 17-FREE WHEELING (emerg), 19-OVER QUOTA (emerg). You would think this is going to set it up again for another strong finisher down the middle of the track. Really can’t go past the 10-FAWKNER on form, has been doing everything right, the speed is going to be on, loves Flemington, maybe just needs to get out from the inside barrier. The value runner here again is the 16-SPIRIT SONG who is extremely well weighted, will get a perfect sit behind the speed and take her in quinellas as she still has not missed a place over the 1600M. 8-SECRET ADMIRER and 4-SOLZHENITSYN the other two strong finishers to look at here, and 13-YOSEI drawn outside might finally put it all together today. Always a great betting race and you can back a few straight out here and still finish in front. One to risk: 1-FAT AL 12th W=$8.30 Roughie: 13-YOSEI 4th W=$20.00 The Key: Solid 1600M form RESULTS: Very even competitive finish between three of them and unfortunately our two just get nosed out. 2-HAPPY TRAILS again shows this spring what a tough bugger he is and how hard he is to get past in a finish, 10-FAWKNER every chance and 8-SECRET ADMIRER looms like the winner out wide just doesn't seem to finish off her races like she used to. |
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