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| FLEMINGTON : STAKES DAY - 9th Nov 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Weather has been pretty good this week, which is surprising for Cup Week and even more surprisingly there have actually been quite a few favourites winning, especially those from Sydney. All that is going to change towards the weekend though with rain forecast for Friday and Saturday and you would think after having a fair bit of racing that this track will chop up. Most of the week it has seemed to be an advantage to be on speed, even on Thursday it was hard to run down on pace horses from behind. So, if the rain doesn’t come, expect the track to continue to favour on pacers, but if the rain does come, and it is supposed to, you would think this track is going to chop up, that they will come off the rails and you may want to be on outside barriers and strong late finishers, especially later in the day. Down the straight the best ground seems to be right down the middle of the track and you probably don’t want to be drawn too wide, or on the inside, but just right in the middle. There has been a couple of total wipe out days on Stakes Day the last few years with just plain bizarre results. No idea why, but most of these horses are often reaching the end of their spring preparations, so it may pay to watch out for fresh horses on the rise. One other important note there – the rail is only going OUT 3M, which is the same position as Thursday. Just had a quick look back and the rail has always been out 6M to 9M for this meeting for the last 15 years, so this is extremely unusual. Surely the inside here is going to chop up and they will be coming off the rails in the straight ? Fair bit to bet on today and there are plenty of solid each way bets, plus thee very open features to have a crack at so plenty to challenge the punter. We are doing to double up to the $100 again, just think there are some nice collects lurking here, but have to go wider to make the most of them. RESULTS: Fair bit of rain around and a cold day, but track holds up and remains a DEAD(4). Track races pretty evenly, they can come from behind and win, though most of the winners race on pace, and quite a few horses get up on the inside of runners. Once again we get off to a flying start, but just can't quite nudge the Betting Portfolio into a profit. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 14-SPURTONIC $10 WIN X QUINELLA: Race 7: 14-SPURTONIC#2,3,4,15 x $2.50 = $10 X / 1st 2-BOBAN W=$3.70 Lots of ticks for this one in the main race, down in the weights, very well weighted against his rivals, goes forward whereas most of them go back and is going to start better odds than them. Tick, tick, tick and tick. Back straight out at around $8 and instead of each way have some quinellas in case he leads and something runs over the top of him late, so the obvious (2),(3),and (4) and the silly roughie the (15). RESULTS: Settles just off the speed and looms on the turn but never looks likely. Pretty disappointing run actually. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 6-BEL THOR $7.50 EW 1st W=$3.40, P=$1.90 = $39.75 QUINELLA : Race 3: 6-BEL THOR, 3-BACKBONE x $5 SCR $5 QUINELLA : Race 3: 6-BEL THOR, 8-ALROUZ x $3 QUINELLA : Race 3: 6-BEL THOR, 4-HIOCTDANE x $2 This one has been racing extremely consistently and although yet to win over the 2000M has placed 3 from 5. Best ridden dropped out, and they should be running on well today down the middle of the track, but the big tick is the forecast rain and the wetter the better for this one. Has been racing well on DEAD tracks but really we have just been waiting for him to hit a wet track which he should get today. Back each way at around $6, and as he is usually in the finish so double up with some quinellas. The (3) has an extremely strong form line so plonk on that quinella, the (4) is the other obvious danger and the (8) might be the value runner on speed here with not that much pressure up front. Each way and should really be in the finish. RESULTS: Scratchings cut through this field so we lose a lot of the odds, but this one never looks in doubt and really looks close to a good thing in a small field. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 13-EPINGLE $6.50 EW 4th W=$19.30 Big field in the F+M 2000M race and suspect the pace will be very genuine and you will want to be on one from a good barrier that gets cover and finishes on hard. This one is drawn out, but should drop back behind them and is always finishing on really well. Fitter for the 2 runs in, chased hard at MV, isn’t the best in at the weights against the (4) in this though. Yet to win over the 2000M – but also yet to miss a place in 5 starts, wet track should be no issue, and just Flemington, 2000M, solid tempo, track favouring runners on, just seems to be a perfect set up for this one. Quite keen despite a tough race and have something each way at $16. RESULTS: Probably just comes into this one run short, looms and works home OK, but just doesn't quite get into the finish. Keep following though, she should be ready to win now with the 3 runs in. RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 5,6 – 2,4,11,13 / 1,8,12(scr),14 x $20 = 125% X / X SCR $5 Seems to be plenty of value around in two of the features Race 5 and Race 6 with large fields and spirited betting. We actually think there are four solid chances in Race 5, all strong finishers, running on , the 13-EPINGLE, who we have already mentioned, the 4-LAKE SENTENTIA, 2-ZURELLA and even the 11-DOLLY DOLLY at odds. The feature sprint is wide open, take the class sprinter the top weight 1-LUCKY NINE, the 12-PLATELET who loves the wet and proven down the straight, and watch out for those who raced well last Saturday and are backing up 8-FONTELINA and 14-VILLA VERDE. Chance here of getting a $15 winner by a $10 winner and a $200 plus running double in big field so worth a crack. RESULTS: Doesn't really get warm but a good idea, nice value winners in both legs and the double pays a healthy $172 BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 8-CONSORTING $5 EW 3rd W=$4.80, P=$1.80 = 1.80 x 5 = $9 This race often throws up a funny result and funny enough it is often actually won by a horse coming off a maiden win. Can’t see one to fit that pattern today, but have really liked the last 2 runs on this one. Both at MV, both coming off the bend and finishing on hard and just looks like the 1400M and bigger track is what he is looking for. Outside barrier should suit, strong finisher and should be finishing on hard here. Currently around $10, but expecting much better odds on the tote on the day. RESULTS: Few scratchings lessen the odds and then this one gets totally backed off the map to almost start favourite which was a bit surprising. Looms up like the winner and isn't beaten far. BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 14-VILLA VERDE $2 WIN, $5 PLACE X Already have this one in our running double anyway, but like backing them if they are backing up off good runs during Cup week, over the years you often see horses backing up and going well. 3YO into the feature sprint, but often they cause the upset, went pretty well last week, drawn middle which is the place to be seen these days, wet should be OK and can just see him getting a perfect trail into this. Shop around for the best odds, probably will drift on the day with plunges on various high profile smart sprinters. RESULTS: Looms up at the business end of the race but just not good enough. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 7-QUEENSTOWN at around $4.50 2nd W=$3.90 Lightly raced on pace Waterhouse runner who led all the way last start at MV but was tiring on the line. Capacity field here, has drawn a horror barrier 18, will need to work to go forward, there is a fair bit of other speed in this (especially if the (19) emergency gets into the field), and can just see a strong finisher sitting off the speed from a good barrier and running over the leaders here. Pretty keen to take this one on in a big field. RESULTS: Gets across OK and lucky for us is nabbed just on the line by a strong finisher. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. $5 ALL UP PLACE Race 2: 9-POST D’FRANCE 1st W=$11.10, P=$3.10 PLACE Race 3: 6-BEL THOR 1st W=$3.40, P=$1.90 PLACE Race 7: 14-SPURTONIC PLACE Race 8: 12-GARUD Looks a good day for the Poor Man’s Quaddie, being four value place getters. Kick off with top pick in Race 2 who is racing very well, has a good win strike rate and might be on the improve, keep going with our each way bets in Race 3 and Race 7 and come home on a value runner in Race 8 who ran well last week and should have plenty of improvement from that run. Looking at a tidy $300 collect for a $5 outlay, at the very least let’s hope we get rolling early to at least keep the interest up. RESULTS: We we definitely did get rolling early, with the first two legs winning instead of placing (gotta love that), and we were all set up for a nice collect but the later legs let us down. Still an impressive start to the day. SPENT: $100 RETURN: $58.75 NET: -$41.25 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. WATCH CUP REPLAY AGAIN Race 2: 9-POST D’FRANCE, 11-XAVI, 3-SYSMO Race 3: 6-BEL THOR, 3-BACKBONE, 8-ALROUZ Race 4: 8-CONSORTING, 3-SUAVITO, 1-BARBED Race 5: 13-EPINGLE, 4-LAKE SENTENTIA, 2-ZURELLA Race 6: 12-PLATELET, 1-LUCKY NINE, 14-VILLA VERDE Race 7: 14-SPURTONIC, 4-TOYDINI, 3-SACRED FALLS Race 8: 5-LET’S MAKE A DEAL, 12-GARUD, 7-SHOREHAM Race 9: 3-KARACATIS, 4-BY THE WAY, 5-DISCIPLE |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-POST D’FRANCE 1st W=$11.10 *** Nice value winner on top *** 11-XAVI 2nd W=$9.20 3-SYSMO 3rd W=$3.40 Quinella: $47.50 Straight Trifecta: $487.10 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-BEL THOR 1st W=$3.40 *** Best Each Way Bet of the Day *** 3-BACKBONE SCR 8-ALROUZ |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-CONSORTING 3rd W=$4.80 3-SUAVITO 2nd W=$5.50 1-BARBED |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-EPINGLE 4-LAKE SENTENTIA 2-ZURELLA |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-PLATELET SCR 1-LUCKY NINE 14-VILLA VERDE |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-SPURTONIC 4-TOYDINI 3-SACRED FALLS |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-LET’S MAKE A DEAL 3rd W=$7.50 12-GARUD 7-SHOREHAM SCR |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-KARACATIS 4-BY THE WAY 3rd W=$12.50 5-DISCIPLE |
| RACE 7: EMIRATES STAKES GROUP 1 1600M |
| Tips: 14-SPURTONIC 4-TOYDINI 3-SACRED FALLS |
| Others: 10,2,15 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 6-MULL OF KILLOUGH, 14-SPURTONIC Handy: 1-SOLZHENITSYN, 9-SPEEDINESS, 10-MOURO Back: 2-BOBAN, 3-SACRED FALLS, 4-TOYDINI, 5-LINTON, 8-NASHVILLE, 11-STIPULATE, 12-BLACKIE, 13-SMOKIN' JOEY, 15-STRIKE THE STARS, 16-RHYTHM TO SPARE Chances: 2-BOBAN is absolutely flying at the moment with 4 wins on end, including the Epsom, and his win at Caulfield last start when he tracked through from last on the rails to steadily, but surely over haul the leader was sensational. Stable has been on fire with winners all week and they are probably due to take out one of the feature races. Worth noting he is meeting the (4) slightly worse off on weights from the Epsom where there was very little between them. Strong finisher who is going to be suited if the track chops up and they are winning running on. He is another though where a genuine slow track might be a concern. Starting to creep up in the weights too. In peak form though so has to go in as a solid winning chance. Just looks a little under the odds to us. Strong chance. 1st W=$3.70 3-SACRED FALLS is one of several very well performed Sydney milers and they do seem to be a cut above the local horses. Impressive win strike rate, wasn’t that far behind these in the Epsom, and then loomed like the winner out wide at MV when not beaten very far. Worth noting that nothing really won on Cox Plate day where he made his run – they all led or cut the corner on the turn, nothing won swooping. So probably not much between him and the (4). Another of the Waller stable who have been on fire this week. The plus with this one is that a wet track is no problem at all, whereas it is with some of his main rivals. That puts him right in this and there isn’t much between the Sydney milers. Strong chance. 4-TOYDINI is part of the attack force of Sydney milers that seem to have this race between them. They seem to be cloning superior late finishing milers up there, this field is full of them. Another who has had a great spring, not beaten very far in the Epsom and then really, really liked the MV Crystal Mile win. When the (9) cut through on the turn there, and we were on him, he is a good horse and we thought he was home for all money. This one came out and cut him down on the line – think that was a super impressive win, even if it was a narrow margin, as the (9) is a pretty good horse and he really had kicked and pinched a winning break. Still pretty much unknown on wet ground, but it may be an issue for him. Outside barrier is a big tick here, if the rain comes think they will be winning running on and he can swoop down the outside dropping back. Still can’t get over last start win – he might be very, very good indeed. Strong chance. 10-MOURO is yet another who is going along really well and this is really an extremely in form field. Placed 7 from 8 at the 1600M, and only missed the place twice in 12 career starts. Stormed home along the inside 1st up, then disappointing 2nd up, but may not have appreciated the very firm track and pretty much always looked the winner on pace last start in the Sale Cup. Seems to be OK on wet ground, is fresher than many of these and seems to have a fair bit of upside about him. Plus gets in here with a nice 53kgs. Drawn a middle barrier, and he can go forward here if required, in a field full of drop back, backmarkers and think you need to rate him in this – form, weight, racing pattern all get a tick. Chance. SCR 14-SPURTONIC is yet another Sydney miler. Boring already. Lightly raced, good win strike rate, and not much between many of these in the Epsom. Big difference is that this one races forward and all of his Sydney team mates are drop back horses. Really has barely set a foot wrong this time in, and there isn’t much speed in this so he is going to get a good run up front – watch out if they are winning running on or not though. Gets into this with nice light weight and meets the (2) a very nice 4kgs better for only a 0.5 Epsom defeat, and the (4) 3kgs better off. Very well weighted in this. Just check out his wet track form closely, at first glance it looks Ok, but he was beaten both times on slow tracks when well in the market. His chances mainly come down to the racing pattern, if they continue to win on speed like they have most of the week he is right in this race with his light weight, if they are winning out wide on a track that is chopping up then probably place is best. But he is by far the best weighted horse in this, he will make his own luck on the speed whilst the others drop back and think he is a major player here. Lightly weighted horses often win this race. Strong chance. 15-STRIKE THE STARS actually ticks a lot of boxes with this race, the winner often comes through the Derby Day 1400M race, he has 2 x 1400M runs this time in which means he will still have more improvement to come and he a lot fresher than many of these. He really stormed home last week. Wet track would probably be a little issue, and doesn’t have the best win strike rate. Placed 3 from 5 over the 1600M. Is meeting a very smart field here, and is yet another backmarker in a field with not much speed. This race does have a history of light weighted long shots winning though, often they are strong finishing horses and often they are fresher horses on the scene. Will be long odds, but just quite liked the run last week, will improve from that even further so think he is a total blow out race chance. Rough. Place: 1-SOLZHENITSYN is a super tough consistent miler who generally keeps his form once he finds it. Astounding 1600M record – 5 wins and 2 placings form 8 starts, often the horses that compete in these feature miles end up with really poor 1600M records, just because they are such tough races with big fields most of the time. So that is one seriously impressive record. Right at peak of form with two Caulfield runs, won the Toorak for the 2nd year in the row and this time carrying weight, and then set a task to try out the 2000M for the first time in the Mackinnon and really never looked in the race. Stewards report is important here, respiratory noise, and note the raft of gear changes today as they think he choked down on his Wheet Bix last week. That run – last beaten 23L was so totally out of character for him something must have been very, very wrong. The fact that they are backing him up within a week would suggest that they are confident they have it sorted, but guess you always have that niggling doubt. Few queries though, coming off a bad run, top weight in this and often light weights win this race, not sure how he will back up off a failed 2000M run, and the biggest concern here is the rain – 3 starts on slow for 0-0-0. Quite a few here meet him better off at the weights too. Having said that bit surprised at the $15 on offer. Probably will be in the finish again somewhere, but think we want to look otherwise today. Prefer place. 5-LINTON is a former Cups and features horse who has found a new lease of life as a 1400 to 1600M horse and put together a string of wins during the winter. Has a stack of class on his day, and normally gets lumped with a fair bit of weight, but comes into this fairly well weighted. Fitter for the 2 runs in, 1st up run was excellent when he loomed early in the straight but didn’t quite finish it off, and then probably slightly disappointing 2nd up but you can forgive them one run. Slow track is probably OK if you look at his wet track form. Does meet the (1) 2 kgs better off here. Plus for him is that he is fresher than most of these and has some improvement to come – and he is good enough to win this on his best. He is worth considering and capable of an upset here, only thing that does bother us is barrier 1, don’t think he is good racing inside horses (despite the Stradbroke win) and doubt the inside is going to be the place to be later in the day. Rough only. 6-MULL OF KILLOUGH is an international visitor who came out for the Cox Plate and is sticking around to get his money’s worth. Worth noting that the other Cox Plate visitor won on Saturday, and this guy went OK on Cup day. Bit unusual to see an overseas horse backing up within a week, but generally if a horse runs well during Cup week and backs up again they hold their form and race well. Solid 1600M form, gets further if this is a tough slog 1600M and good wet track form. Lobbed on speed under a very big weight on Tues and stuck on OK. Drawn wide, but local jockey on board and you would think they probably go forward again – and that might be the key here. This field is just full of drop back milers, so something racing on speed is probably a pretty good chance to pinch this. Question mark is if he backs up OK, and not sure the race on Tues was all that strong , but probably some rough chance here. Prefer place. 4th W=$18.90 9-SPEEDINESS is a very talented miler who just doesn’t win as many as he should as he is often slowly away, drops back in the field and needs luck getting runs – and those types just never win as many as they should. Form has been first rate this time in, strong finishing win down the straight first up off a fast speed, should have won the Rupert Clarke but was slow to begin and had trouble getting clear again, and then stormed home in the Toorak. Looked to have the MV Crystal mile in his keeping when he settled closer last start and when he went for home around the turn, the race was really over – how on earth the (4) ran him down we still don’t know. He handles it wet – and many of his rivals either don’t or are unknowns. Listen for riding tactics here - they rode him more forward last start and you would think they will do it again – surely the trainer must be just as fed up as the punters about his drop back and unlucky runs racing style. Does meet the (4) 2 kgs better off for a very narrow defeat last start, but just think he was beaten fair and square on his merits. Inside barrier here means likely to be trapped in the worse going, and just can’t see him beating the (4). Place only. 3rd W=$8.50 12-BLACKIE is one who had always shown a lot of potential, but was struggling to find consistent form till this preparation. Form this preparation has been first rate, finished on really well 1st up down the straight, then scooted early, looped the field and hit the rails at MV and won running away from them. Fought on really well out wide in the Toorak and meets the (1) 2kgs better off for that run. Not far behind many of these at MV, and worth remembering they weren’t winning swooping that day like this one tried to do. Much better suited under these weight conditions too – meets the (9) 2.5kgs better off and the (4) 4kgs better off – they are both very nice weight turn arounds for a 2.6L defeat. Wet track no problem. Probably drops back from inside barrier here which may be an issue, inside likely to be worse ground, outside there are half a dozen others taking that run. Last 2 wins have both been at MV too. But does look very well weighted in this, so rough chance, tending toward place. Place. Sacking: 7-HAVANA GOLD SCRATCHED 8-NASHVILLE is very hard to line up as a NZ visitor, but has a smart win strike rate, good 1600M record and these NZ visitors are often quite well placed and go close when produced. 3 runs in, up in distance each time and the 2000M run will be a plus for a tough feature mile here. Wet track should be fine. Not sure of racing pattern? But you would think probably drops back here from barrier 16. Not much you can do except watch the market on this one, you will know very quickly if the moves come as to his chances. Failed to produce in previous Aus visit. Just in a very even field, as an unknown probably pass over him today though. No. 11-STIPULATE is an international visitor into a local stable, looking at a feature mile. Actually thought our milers were OK, not sure why we need to import them. Market best guide as always, but local trainer can’t have had him for very long as he only raced 11 weeks ago in England, and it does take a while to hitch hike to Australia. Total unknown and no point throwing money at it, let it race and see how it goes. No 13-SMOKIN' JOEY still has punters baffled as he put in pretty much the win of Cup week in the last race on Derby Day. On a track that was favouring on pacers, he sat back, went around them wide and with ease and won going away. Huh? Always had some ability but had been struggling to put it all together and change of stable seems to have done the trick. Wet track form isn’t actually that bad if you look through it, but note there have been plenty of slow and heavy track scratchings. Derby Day 1400M race is also often a good guide to this. Have to say don’t think there was that much depth to the race he won this week, this race has come up the strongest form race of the spring with pretty much every runner in form, and only had the 2 runs in 1200M / 1400M and think that is a real issue going to a tough feature mile. Passing. 2nd W=$19.00 16-RHYTHM TO SPARE is a pretty handy lightly raced horse on the up, but is hitting an extremely strong field here. Apart from his little health turn at Caulfield 2nd up, his form this time in has been excellent. Ran on well at Sale, but does meet the winner from there 3kgs worse off so hard to see him turning the tables here. Yet another back marker, and they are going to be lining up out the back of the field to make their runs. Only missed the place twice in his career, stack of ability , but just think this field has his measure. No Summary: Always a great betting race to end the spring and this year is no exception, this is an extremely even field and you could make cases for most of these, so apologies for the very lopsided win / place / sacking lists. Amazingly have 5 last start winners, 12 of the 16 have placed in the last start and 8 of the 16 have won a race this preparation. The race is famous for the odd long shot winner, often they are horses at the bottom of the weights and with most of these feature miles it can be quite tough to win when you are up the top of the weights. Track pattern often favours those running on late, and look for fresher horses on the scene instead of ones that have been through long spring campaigns and already peaked. How many of these still have improvement to come? Which ones have been set for this race specifically ? Note that only 3 horses in the last 20 years have carried more than 56 kgs to win this, though the weights have been raised a few times over the years so it is hard to line up that statistic, but generally this is a race for lower weighted horses. Bit strange to have so many horses with similar form coming into the one race, so it is important here to line up the weights. The Epsom Handicap this year has been an extremely strong form race, the ones in the finish there all went their separate ways, they all won, and here they are back again for an Epsom rematch. Epsom Handicap: 2-BOBAN 1st goes up 4kgs, 4-TOYDINI 3rd beaten 0.3 L goes up 2.5kgs, 3-SACRED FALLS 8th beaten 2.4L same weight, 14-SPURTONIC 4th beaten only 0.6L and drops ½ kgs. So out of that race the place getters go up substantially in weight and the (14) is extremely well weighted getting substantial weight pulls off a very narrow margin. Toorak Handicap: 1-SOLZHENITSYN 1st on the same weight, 12-BLACKIE beaten 2.3L drops 2kgs into this, 9-SPEEDINESS beaten 2.5L drops 1 kgs into this, 5-LINTON beaten 3.6L drops 2kgs and 10-MOURO beaten 5.2L drops 1.5kgs. Crystal Mile: 4-TOYDINI 1st drops 2 kgs, 9-SPEEDINESS 2nd beaten just 0.1L drops 4kgs, 3-SACRED FALLS 3rd beaten only 0.3L drops 2kgs. 12-BLACKIE beaten 2.6L drops a very nice 6.5 kgs. So the (12) is very well weighted out of that race. Bearing that in mind think you need to be wary here that the proven milers up the top of the weights are set on task on the handicapping against those they have been racing against. Quite strange to have so many in form feature milers in this race. Doesn’t seem to be much speed here at all and think you need to be wary here, even if the track is racing favouring those running on, a lot of these are going to drop back and give the ones up front a big head start off a moderate tempo. 6-MULL OF KILLOUGH, 14-SPURTONIC the likely leaders with only 1-SOLZHENITSYN, 9-SPEEDINESS, 10-MOURO others likely to press forward so doubt there is going to be much pressure up front. There is one that jumps out here on weights, racing on speed making his own luck, lightly weighted, well weighted against this rivals and that is the 14-SPURTONIC. Just ticks so many boxes in this and likely to start decent each way odds. The 4-TOYDINI the main danger, just cause loved the win at MV last start and maybe the 3-SACRED FALLS the other danger as just suspect he might have more improvement to come compared to many he has been racing against. Plenty of chances though, obviously 2-BOBAN, reckon he is too short though in this field under this weight scale, and the 10-MOURO and the 15-STRIKE THE STARS the best rough chances. One to risk: 1-SOLZHENITSYN 13th W=$17.40 Roughie: 15-STRIKE THE STARS The Key: Line up weights from previous runs. RESULTS: Very even competitive affair and they spread wide across the track. Despite the weight rise the 2-BOBAN is just too good finishing hard late. Great ride by the 9-SPEEDINESS getting up on the inside and really he had every chance. Best run of the race though by a mile was the 13-SMOKIN' JOEY coming off a very impressive win last week, this week he was 5-6 wide and hitting the lead far too early on the home turn, but stuck on for the length of the straight to still be in the finish. Probably wins with some cover in running and follow him with confidence next start. |
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