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Sportsbet are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd in the Emirates Stakes |
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| FLEMINGTON: STAKES DAY - 8th Nov 2014 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 4M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Racing pattern has been a bit variable this week. On Derby Day with a strong head wind they were winning running on and down the outside rail. On Cup Day, they were winning on speed and hard against the fence where very few raced on Saturday. On Oaks Day although they could run on and win early it was noticeable a few winners stuck to the fence and the on pacers won the last few races. Rail is staying in the same position as Thursday, and Stakes Day normally favours those running on late on a wearing track. However, considering on pacers were winning on Oaks Day and we have a warm sunny day suspect the racing pattern may continue to favour those on speed. We are on track for an unprecedented tale of punting and tipping woe, having taken on the winner of each of the feature races so for this week in our One To Risk section in the main form preview. Can we complete an historical tipping tragic quadrella in the Emirates Stakes? There is plenty to bet on for Stakes Day as always RESULTS: After a really ordinary week we turn it around big time with a huge day on the punt. The tragic tipping quadrella comes home, with the One To Risk winning all FOUR feature races this week, the Derby, the Melbourne Cup, the Oaks and the Emirates Stakes. Fortunately the tips were sensational so that makes up for that woeful effort. Track strongly favours on pacers as predicted, which is why the tips went so well. Down the straight they even came to the inside rail which is rare. Astounding tips, managed two of the three place getters in five of the eight races. BEST BET: Race 5: 2-BIG MEMORY $7 WIN 3rd W=$4.90 QUINELLA Race 5: 2-BIG MEMORY, 3-LE ROI x $3 3rd 2-BIG MEMORY W=$4.90, 1st 3-LE ROI W=$5.80 This one has been racing really well all spring and fought on really well here last week. Horses often go well when they back up during Cup week and there isn’t much depth to this race at all. Should sit on speed and give himself every chance and think he is just going better than these. Back straight out at around $4.40, which seems great odds, and save on the quinella with the stable mate the (3) who should be fitter for the 3 runs in and the 2500M run and will roll on speed as well. These two should really fight this race out. RESULTS: Pretty close to the mark here and these two fight the race out most of the way down the straight, but just get one running into second and knocking us out of the quinella. Right on the money but. l BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 13-HELD HOSTAGE $3 EW 1st W=$7.40, P=$2.50 = $29.70 QUINELLA: Race 3: 13-HELD HOSTAGE#3,4,6,14 x $4 = 100% 1st 13-HELD HOSTAGE W=$7.40, 2nd 3-CLANG AND BANG W=$25.90. Quinella = $114.80 Honest rolling on speed type and should get the run of the race here in a big field, but a big field with not much speed. Got held up for runs last start at Caulfield and should have finished closer. Big field here and good chance of a result, and the quinella should pay well, so back each way and anchor in a quinella with the (3),(4),(6) and (14). Note that is a quinella with the 13-HELD HOSTAGE with the other runners. RESULTS: Well that was a good way to suddenly turn around a very ordinary week on the punt! Top pick wins at nice odds in the first race we tipped for on the day, plus we found the $114 quinella in the selections and the suggested bets for a very minimal outlay. You don't get much better starts to the day than that. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 1-SOLICIT $5 EW X QUINELLA: Race 8: 1-SOLICIT, 13-AMANPOUR x $2 X, 2nd 13-AMANPOUR W=$7.70 QUINELLA: Race 8: 1-SOLICIT, 11-SPINDERBELLA (scr) x $1 SCR $1 QUINELLA: Race 8: 1-SOLICIT, 4-TANGO’S DAUGHTER x $1 X, 4-TANGO’S DAUGHTER 4th W=$32.10 Class mare who hasn’t quite got back to her best this time in, but if she does she should win this. Normally leads or goes forward, but dropped back last start here last week and was making good ground late. Despite the big field again there does not seem to be a huge amount of speed and left alone up near the front she should be hard to run down, especially if the track is favouring on pacers. Big field, and again, plenty of value in the quinella, so back each way and anchor in a quinella with the 13-AMANPOUR who was really good here on Tuesday and will sit handy as well, the 11-SPINDERBELLA who is on the up and was the only horse to win from behind on a MV leaders’ track last start, and the 4-TANGO’S DAUGHTER who might be the value runner on speed here. RESULTS: We weren't far off a collect here, the 1-SOLICIT gets a perfect sit and runs into the race like the winner half way down the straight, but dies on her run and the 13-AMANPOUR sticks on really well. BEST PLACE: Race 6: 7-REBEL DANE $2 WIN, $5 PLACE X Been racing really well all spring in these feature sprints and there hasn’t been much between these at all as the Manikato finish showed. He has tried to squeeze up on the inside at both runs at MV when finishing on well and been struggling for a clear run. Although he hasn’t won down the straight before, the bigger space here and room is really going to suit much better and he may even be a chance of a boilover in this – it is not like his form is that bad. He has been beaten < 0.5 lengths against these last 2 starts and been unlucky both times. Short priced favourite probably wins though, so a little something the win at $19 and looks a nice place bet at around $5. RESULTS: Drops back to last and runs on OK, but never really threatens. BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 7-SAINT OR SINNER $2 EW 1st W=$11.00, P=$3.10 = $28.20 Some of these early races are very, very open and there is a good chance of a long shot result. This one is fitter for the 3 runs in and looks ready to do something, his form might be better than it looks. Last start went to the lead and really had to work hard, kicked clear early in the straight but died on the run. Fitter for that effort, drawn to go forward here, but can sit behind the speed and there isn’t a huge amount of speed in this race. Solid Flemington record and might do something at odds here at around $21. RESULTS: Track is favouring on pacers, sits just behind the speed hard against the rail and we kick off the day with the first two winners on top at nice odds. Got very well backed, there was plenty of $21 around on the morning of the race. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 1-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE at around $3.20 5th W=$2.80 Import come local who has been going along OK in Sydney, but hasn’t been overly impressive and comes into this big field as top weight and having to give weight to a big even bunch of horses, one of whom will probably pop up at odds. Just seems under the odds at around $3.20 and prefer to back something at value in this race. RESULTS: Not beaten that far but never a factor so never a threat. TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 7: 9, 15 / 2,5,9,15 / 2,4,5,6,7,9,15,16 x $5 = 13.88% 2nd 9-LUCKY HUSSLER W=$8.20 / X / 3rd 2-THE CLEANER W=$7.70 Sure to be plenty of value in the trifecta in the feature race so let’s have a crack at it. The two main winning chances are the 15-RHYTHM TO SPARE, 9-LUCKY HUSSLER, the 2-THE CLEANER and 5-HOOKED should be around the finish, and then just load up the 3rd spot with as many as possible including super roughies like 16-ESCADO and hope for a result. RESULTS: The 9-LUCKY HUSSLER looked the winner all of the way down the straight but just couldn't run down the winner 7-HUCKLEBUCK. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $173.70 NET: $+123.70 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACES. NO BET. Race 2: 13-HELD HOSTAGE, 14-CADILLAC MOUNTAIN, 3-CLANG AND BANG Race 3: 7-SAINT OR SINNER, 8-PIN YOUR HOPES, 13-FELIDEA Race 4: 12-DUCAL CASTLE, 3-HUSSON EAGLE, 4-LORD ASPEN Race 5: 2-BIG MEMORY, 3-LE ROI, 8-NOBLE PROTECTOR Race 6: 10-CHAUTAUQUA, 7-REBEL DANE, 12-DRIEFONTEIN Race 7: 15-RHYTHM TO SPARE, 9-LUCKY HUSSLER, 2-THE CLEANER Race 8: 1-SOLICIT, 13-AMANPOUR, 11-SPINDERBELLA Race 9: 7-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG, 13-TELEPATHIC, 15-WRITTEN INTENT |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-HELD HOSTAGE 1st W=$7.40 *** Best Each Way Bet *** 14-CADILLAC MOUNTAIN 3-CLANG AND BANG 2nd W=$25.90 Quinella = $114.80 *** great value quinella in the selections |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-SAINT OR SINNER 1st W=$11.00 *** Best Rough *** 8-PIN YOUR HOPES 2nd W=$10.60 13-FELIDEA SCR Quinella: $64.50 *** another great value quinella *** |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-DUCAL CASTLE 3rd W=$27.30, P=$6.80 *** great value top pick *** 3-HUSSON EAGLE 4-LORD ASPEN 1st W=$3.20 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-BIG MEMORY 3rd W=$4.90 3-LE ROI 1st W=$5.80 8-NOBLE PROTECTOR |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-CHAUTAUQUA 2nd W=$2.50 7-REBEL DANE 12-DRIEFONTEIN |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-RHYTHM TO SPARE 9-LUCKY HUSSLER 2nd W=$8.20 2-THE CLEANER 3rd W=$7.70 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SOLICIT 13-AMANPOUR 2nd W=$7.70 11-SPINDERBELLA SCR |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG 1st W=$4.40 13-TELEPATHIC 15-WRITTEN INTENT |
| RACE 7: EMIRATES STAKES GROUP 1 1600M |
| Tips: 15-RHYTHM TO SPARE 9-LUCKY HUSSLER 2nd W=$8.20 2-THE CLEANER 3rd W=$7.70 |
| Others: 5,4,6 Pace: FAST Leaders: 2-THE CLEANER Handy: 1-RIVER LAD, 5-HOOKED, 7-HUCKLEBUCK, 10-LEEBAZ, 12-HONORIUS, 16-ESCADO Back: 3-SPEEDINESS, 4-SMOKIN' JOEY, 6-CONTRIBUTER, 8-STIPULATE , 9-LUCKY HUSSLER, 11-BULL POINT, 13-DESERT JEUNEY, 14-I'M IMPOSING, 15-RHYTHM TO SPARE, 17-SPY DECODER (emerg) Chances: 2-THE CLEANER has been one of the stars of the spring and did his best in the Cox Plate where they really pushed up and ran along and he did have to do an awful amount of work to get to the lead there. Form before that was excellent and he just leads and breaks them apart. Away from Moonee Valley but his last two runs here at Flem have been good. Placed 4 from 6 at Flem so pretty good record. Should get the lead without any issues here and is going to find he can dictate this race. On form he is going to be hard to beat, this is a pretty ordinary field and there aren’t many strong milers in this race – and he is going to make it a strongly run 1600M. Question marks are going to be how much he has left after a long campaign and if the track is favouring those running on as it often does on this day. Has to go in as a strong chance though. Strong chance. 3rd W=$7.70 4-SMOKIN' JOEY is an erratic performer who can be hard to catch, but has heaps of ability on his day. Has a reputation for winning at long odds, he won a Goodwood at $41, and the Derby Day 1400M race last year at $41. He ran 2nd in this race last year, and it was a huge run, he was widest runner all the way and was still coming on the line – worth noting he did that off just two lead up runs too. You get the impression he has been set for this race this year, he is fitter for the 3 runs in and might be ready to do something here. Ran on pretty well at Caulfield and then wasn’t beaten far here last week. Dry track is a plus. The 8 starts at the 1600M for one 2nd is a bit of a concern, but he is just plain erratic regardless. Just think he is ready to do something, and you have to keep last year’s run in mind and put him in just in case. Was coming off a win last year and is carrying 4kgs more this year. Race this year is much weaker though and if he repeats last year’s run he will win this. Rough chance. 5-HOOKED is racing in peak form and is going to be very hard to beat here. Sat just off the speed in the Crystal Mile and quickly put the race behind doubt. Huge run in the Epsom when was caught wide all the way on speed and still fighting on in the finish, and won feature race at Newcastle before that. Form is really top notch. He has been competitive over further distances which is always a big plus for a strong mile, especially for a mile run at a frantic pace. Drawn well, will sit here behind the leader the (2), question mark might be if he is the one that needs to set out at the top of the straight and run him down and if that brings him undone? Not well weighted against those who finished behind him at MV. But best form going into this and looms at the horse to beat here. Go well. 6-CONTRIBUTER is an international come local who was dominant in the Coogny and showed a really nice turn of foot off a slow pace to put the race beyond doubt. Lightly raced with an excellent win strike rate and likely to keep on improving. Might be one to watch the betting market on, he is dropping back in distance, but you would think Flemington, and the fast speed here is going to suit and he might be one who is suited by the fast tempo and can make a long run at them. Have to respect last start win. Might drop back here along the inside and get held up for runs. Strong chance. 9-LUCKY HUSSLER has been flying this spring and stable has a habit of turning them around. Good firm track form. Really has been right in the finish of everything he has contested this spring, and has been charging home late on the line. He was a distance query at 1400M even, and hadn’t won over that distance before last start, but the Caulfield win was super impressive when he came from well back and went past a good field and extended away from them. Out to the 1600M here is the query, he has placed twice over the trip from 3 starts – just be wary of the stats here! His 1600M form breakdown shows 1 placing from 3 starts, but one of these was a placing and he was disqualified. He did start favourite in two of those races too, but worth noting they were both on wet tracks. Will drop well back from outside barrier, so will need them to be winning running on but will get the speed to suit. Just really liked the last start win, and after looking closer at the form maybe the 1600M isn’t a query after all. Strong chance. 2nd W=$8.20 15-RHYTHM TO SPARE is a pretty good dry track strong finisher miler on his day so gets conditions to suit here. 4 times winner over the 1600M is a big plus. Fitter for the 3 runs in and should be ready to peak today and does look like he has been aimed at this race. Stable lost their Cup runner during the week. Toorak Handicap run was excellent, was finishing on really well late and got crowded for runs and the jockey did look at the video to think about protesting. Probably should have placed there. Nice middle barrier means he probably won’t get too far back here either. Light weight, strong finisher, proven miler lots of boxes to tick here. Did run in this race last year and was sent to the lead which was entirely against normal racing pattern. Just looks primed for this race and think he has a lot in his favour today. Strong chance Place: 10-LEEBAZ is coming into this 2nd up, with just the 1 x 1400M run this time in and normally horses that win this race have had 3-4 runs in. Generally prefer horses to have had 3 runs into a tough competitive feature mile regardless. Excellent win strike rate and good solid 1600M form which is what you want and has been competitive over further. Normally races forward so will be sitting just behind the (2) here on speed. Started favourite 1st up at Caulfield and got stuck on the fence behind 3-4 horses with nowhere to go for the entire length of the straight so can forget that run. Suited if the track favours on speed. Just this is going to be a super tough 1600M and prefer to be on others with a few more runs in so prefer place. Place. 4th W=$9.80 11-BULL POINT has been racing very consistently this spring but normally finding a few better each start. Good win/place strike rate. Ridden cold he has been finishing off his races pretty well, was not beaten far in the Toorak at all, and was really good late coming from the tail of the field in the Crystal mile. Meets the (5) 2 kgs better off too from that run. Oliver on board here. Really nothing wrong with form and has been in the finish of the lead up races, but just suspect will find one better here again. Place. 13-DESERT JEUNEY has been racing really consistently all spring, running on late and needs to pick up a win somewhere along the line. Pulled out at the top of the straight and loomed like the winner in the Toorak, which was exciting when we had tipped him as the best roughie at 100-1. Fought on well in the Crystal mile when not suited under the WFA weight conditions of that race. Drops 5.5kgs into this race, and meets those who finished in front of him much better on weights, particularly the (5). Outside barrier probably not ideal as he is best ridden mid field with a bit of cover. Yet to win from 7 starts on firm tracks is a bit of a worry too. He is racing well enough to win this, and gets into this very well weighted, but will need them to be winning running on down the middle of the track. Prefer place. 14-I'M IMPOSING has been going along OK in Sydney and should have more improvement to come off last run which was off a 2 month let up. Proven over further too which is a real plus for a strong 1600M. Hasn’t raced in Melbourne for a few seasons now. Tends to race on speed normally, but has been ridden more cold last few runs and surely they have to drop back here from an outside barrier. Solid dry track form, light weight and this race has a history of long shot upsets. Tough type who might be suited by the fast speed here. Rough place chance. 16-ESCADO is fitter for the 3 runs in and he has been showing some promise this time in. Running home really well late 1st up and 2nd up here, and then not beaten that far in the Toorak. Actually quite well weighted against the (9) from their previous meeting. Win strike rate isn’t the best, and yet to win from 13 starts on firm tracks, or from 9 starts at Flemington. Middle barrier here and although can race handy he has gone better ridden cold earlier on this preparation. This isn’t the strongest field this year and light weight chances can cause upsets in this race. He is actually going along OK, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the finish at massive odds, so put him in trifectas and first fours if you are looking for a big collect. Rough place chance. Sacking: 1-RIVER LAD is the long shot winner of the Stradbroke Handicap and seems harshly in as a result in this field as top weight – and top weights very rarely win this race. Just goes to show it is a pretty poor quality field this year. Far better known over the sprinting trips. Firm ground no issues. Only 1600M win was in a no metro win race in 2011, so is a very big unknown at the trip, especially in Group 1 company in a feature mile event. Just the 2 runs in, and is coming into this race a lot fresher than many of his rivals. Guess he wasn’t disgraced 1st up down the straight here, but form is hardly impressive. You want hard fit, in form strong milers in these feature miles and he ticks none of those boxes. May sit on speed though. No 3-SPEEDINESS has pretty much had enough chances and punters now flee to the hills at the slightest mention of his name. He keeps looming up, or running on late, or looking the winner in these feature miles, but just doesn’t win them. Fitter for the 4 runs in, ran on well 1st up in a race he won last year, did nothing 2nd up and he was better in that race last year, and then 3rd up in the Toorak made really good ground late against the inside. That really set him up for the Crystal mile and he should have been right in that finish, but loomed on the home turn and only battled. Two times winner here and is placed 8 from 12 over the distance. But we now have a 2nd in the Toorak in 2014, a 2nd in the George Ryder, a 3rd in this race last year, a 2nd in the Crystal Mile last year, each time he has ran into the race like the winner but just found one better. Did run 3rd in this race last year with 55kgs but his form was better. Barrier 1 is no plus for a drop back and drop out horse. There aren’t many strong milers in this field which is to his advantage. OK dry track form, but think the key to this one is that he needs some give in the ground and he is not going to get it this year. Had too many chances. No 7-HUCKLEBUCK has a stack of class and ability and has a class turn of foot when it counts. Solid Flemington record with 2 wins from 4 starts. Has been kept very fresh for this race with just the 2 runs in at 1200M and 1400M and normally prefer them to have 3 or more runs into these feature miles. He is a winner and in winning form, and it pays to respect horses backing up during Cup week who have ran well. The strong mile is the big question mark here, he started favourite in the Australian Guineas and was a bit disappointing and failed in the Carbine Club last year when an even money favourite. So two starts at 1600M when favourite and he hasn’t won either. Perfect barrier here, but the question mark is really going to be the (2) running them along and turning this into a very tough 1600M. For a horse that is already a query at the 1600M, that means we are happy to risk this one as a result. Risking. 1st W=$10.40 8-STIPULATE hasn’t really gone up to the level he might have this spring. His 1st up win at Caulfield in the Naturalism was super impressive, and that was a strong form race and he looked like he was going to be a major player this spring based on that. Just fair in the Turnbull and Caulfield Cup and then really didn’t do much in a weaker race here on Cup Day, though guess he was working home OK. Strong finisher who will be suited by the speed here and he may be better dropped back in distance but struggle to have him on current form. No 12-HONORIUS doesn’t have as impressive stats as many of his rivals here but wasn’t beaten that far in the Epsom, and then stuck it out well to the line in the Coogny. Hard to see him beating home the winner of that race here though. Has been competitive over further which is a plus for a strongly run mile here. Drawn out and probably goes forward here and will get caught a bit wide. Usually not too far away, but doesn’t seem to be going well enough to be a factor here. No 17-SPY DECODER (emerg) is a lightly raced one who is going along well and was only just beaten when finishing hard late here on Tuesday. Horses that back up during Cup week often go well again and emergencies have won this race before. Drawn out and probably drops back here and should be suited by the strong speed up front. Only had the one try over the 1600M and didn’t show much , but guess that doesn’t prove anything. Is coming through much weaker races than this, wouldn’t be an impossible winning chance if he made the field, but just prefer others. Passing. Summary: As always this is a great betting race with plenty of chances, but probably not the strongest field this year. This race does have a history of long shot lightly weighted upsets, so don’t be scared to back a few at odds. The key to this race is going to be how the track is playing. Normally come Stakes Day the track is wearing and favouring those running on, but the on pacers were sticking on well even on Oaks Day and with a warm sunny day ahead it might actually be tough to make ground. The other crucial factor here is the leader the 2-THE CLEANER and he is going to get an uncontested lead here and be able to do what he wants. He will also turn it into a very strongly run 1600M, so think that is going to bring undone any who are even the slightest query at the trip, and think you probably want to be on something sitting midfield here with cover and not given the leader too much of a head start. Plenty of chances, but let’s go with the 15-RHYTHM TO SPARE on top who is fitter for the 3 runs in, was finishing on really strongly last start when got blocked for runs, and has excellent dry track and 1600M form. Just seems ready to win, but would like to see him ridden a bit more forward from a good barrier. The in form 9-LUCKY HUSSLER the main danger, and he is flying at the moment, would need them to be winning running on though as he always gives them a big head start. If the track is playing towards on pacers then really 2-THE CLEANER just about wins, this is going to be a very different race than the Cox Plate when he had to work hard to the lead – he looks like getting a very soft lead today and can dictate the speed. 5-HOOKED the next best and should be the first to go out after the leader and if you are looking for a big collect put 16-ESCADO into your trifectas and first fours as rank outsider who suspect is going to run a lot better than most people expect. One to risk: 7-HUCKLEBUCK 1st W=$10.40 Roughie: 16-ESCADO The Key: Strong miler RESULTS: As warned, and in a pretty freaky tipping performance we managed to land the winners of the Derby, the Melbourne Cup, the Oaks and the Emirates Stakes ALL as the Ones To Risk! All at very nice odds too - that is one pretty funny tipping performance. 7-HUCKLEBUCK had the class to beat these, the 9-LUCKY HUSSLER tried hard and really looked the winner all of the way down the straight, and the 2-THE CLEANER stuck on well as usual. Very spaced out field here and a lot didn't handle the firm track. |
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