|FLEMINGTON: STAKES DAY - 5th Nov 2016|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: OUT 3M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Pretty sure we still call this Stakes Day? With the Emirates Stakes becoming the Mackinnon but staying the Emirates Stakes. Or something like this. Think we would have got an almost identical field if this race was still on Derby Day, but instead we got the spectacle of 21 mares running down the straight.
Fine warm weather on Friday and the weather is supposed to change for Saturday, but not actually that much rain, so this track should stay relatively firm. Interestingly the rail is staying in the 3M position from Thursday, and that is the first time we can remember that happening – normally the rail goes out to 6M or 9M on this day. So just keep an eye on the racing pattern but suspect you might want to be on speed again today as the on pacers have been winning for much of the week. Down the straight the outside rail has been the place to go all week.
In the feature Not The Emirates Stakes, the focus will all be on the internationals 7-SCOTTISH and 5-VADAMOS who should run them along, and they should set up a genuine speed for favourite 3-THE UNITED STATES. Sticking with the 7-SCOTTISH who was really good in the Caulfield Cup, and the roughie who is going to get a great sit just off the speed is the 6-AWESOME ROCK and think he is capable of causing the upset here.
One big rule of Cup week is to always get on horses that run well and back up again within the week – there is very little that changes in their form in such a short period of time and they often run well again, and we have plenty who tick those boxes today who should go close again.
The Betting Portfolio made a nice profit on Derby Day and was in the finish with small losses over Cup Day and Oaks Day to just be slightly ahead for the week. Sticking to the $50 here still though as some these races are a bit low on quality, or just plain bloody tough. Success for the week will largely come down to our best bet of the day just winning.
BEST BET: Race 8: 3-THE QUARTERBACK $10 WIN
Think this is pretty much the bet of the week. Flemington straight track specialist who has now won 3 of his last 4 runs down the straight. Really good win here 1st up when managed to sit handy instead of drop back, and was always going to struggle around tight turning MV on an unsuitable wet track last start but still finished off extremely well. Suited if they come to the outside rail (which they should), just needs them to run along enough for him to run on, but really think he just wins this at around $5.50. Back straight out, and we will also throw in some quinellas in the Turf Deli Wonder Bet.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 13-CURRAGH $4 EW
Lightly raced with a good win/place strike rate and racing well in a field with lots of out of form horses. Out to 2000M for the first time but should be able to box seat right on the speed in this, and not convinced about the strength of his rivals here. Each way at around $7.50
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 6-INSIDE AGENT $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 8-CRAFTED#6,11,12,15,18 x $5 = 100%
There are two we are interested in this race –both at double figure odds. The 6-INSIDE AGENT is a very smart horse and was really good winning here 2 starts back and just looked all lost cluttered up for runs on the inside in a messy race at Caulfield last start. Much better suited back to Flemington, actually thought they would have run him last Saturday in the Carbine Club. Has drawn inside today though, so might need some luck but think he will do something at around $12 if he gets clear running. The other value runner is the 8-CRAFTED at around $15 who is a maiden but has been racing extremely well and only just missed last start at MV. Should get a really good run here from an inside barrier with plenty having to work from out wide and get on the speed. Might find one better, so anchor in quinellas with a few dangers and a few roughies and we should get a pretty good dividend in a big even field.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 5-SURVIVED $2 EW
This is a pretty awful race with lots of out of form horses and really just about anything could win so might as well go for something at value. Overall win/place strike rate still pretty good and a solid front runner stayer on his day. 1st up over 1600M normally isn’t our thing, but he should be able to run to the lead here, on pacers might be favoured again, and his last few fresh runs have been OK. Each way at around $21 but again probably longer on the tote come race time.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 6-AWESOME ROCK $3 EW
Doesn’t win out of turn, but we actually have a pretty good record of jumping on board when he does. His form this time in is much better than it looks – flopped in the Underwood, but then really good late chasing with weight in the Toorak, and stuck on well in the Cox Plate on unsuitable wet track (jockey said he thought he would have placed on a dry track). Wants a dry track and Flemington and stats here are actually pretty good. 2000M is as far as he wants though, so we wouldn’t want the international leaders to run this along too quickly, and he should be able to sit just behind the leaders here and give himself every chance. But most of all, it is going to be highly ironic, if having been robbed of his Group 1 Flemington $1.5 Million Australian Cup here in March, he won the first edition of the re-booted Mackinnon at $2 Million. Each way at around $21 and will probably get out to better odds come race time.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 7-REDKIRK WARRIOR, 6-LORD ASPEN x $2
For those coming to the last race of the week and needing a get out, lets try a value quinella. The favourite here the 8-DEMONSTRATE is going to be hard to beat coming off a Cup Day win and in good form – but 1400M is as far as he wants and does prefer more give in the ground so wouldn’t be surprised to see him get beaten in this. The 7-REDKIRK WARRIOR was really good making a long wide run at MV 1st up in Australia, and the 6-LORD ASPEN is racing well and should box seat on the speed here so might prove a nice value quinella in the last race.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 4-NICCOLANCE at around $4
This race can often throw up a value winner – often something coming off a maiden run too. This one should be extremely well backed, and fair enough too, has won last 2 starts, smart stable and beat subsequent Carbine Club winner. Does like to go forward though, drawn very wide, there are quite a few that can go forward here and think they might bring him undone. Regardless, just prefer to shop for some extra value in a big field so happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
Race 8: QUINELLA: 3-THE QUARTERBACK, 12-SHEIDEL x $3 = 300%
Race 8: QUINELLA: 3-THE QUARTERBACK, 6-OUR BOY MALACHI x $2 = 200%
We have already declared our Best Bet of the day in the feature sprint, the 3-THE QUARTERBACK but lets go for some extra oomph with some quinellas which should pay OK in an open betting market. Actually think the main danger is the winning, winning, winning mare the 12-SHEIDEL who won here last Saturday and sticking to the theory of backing those who back up within Cup Week. Other chance is the 6-OUR BOY MALACHI who is flying at the moment. Probably looking at around $25 and $15 for the quinellas if we can land them.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. NO BET.
Race 2: 13-CURRAGH, 5-HIPPARCHUS, 14-KILMACURRAGH
Race 3: 3-TOM MELBOURNE, 7-VENGEUR MASQUE, 5-DE LITTLE ENGINE
Race 4: 6-INSIDE AGENT, 8-CRAFTED, 12-MAN FROM UNCLE
Race 5: 5-SURVIVED, 8-LUCKY PADDY, 7-COLDSTONE
Race 6: 10-LADY LE FAY, 12-ALASKAN ROSE, 16-HAPPY HANNAH
Race 7: 7-SCOTTISH, 6-AWESOME ROCK, 3-THE UNITED STATES
Race 8: 3-THE QUARTERBACK, 12-SHEIDEL, 6-OUR BOY MALACHI
Race 9: 7-REDKIRK WARRIOR, 6-LORD ASPEN, 8-DEMONSTRATE