|FLEMINGTON: STAKES DAY- 10th NOV 2018|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 8M|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Flemington has raced pretty fairly this week, especially considering the mad weather mayhem of Tuesday, On Oaks Day they could win on speed or from behind and the rail moves out again further to the OUT 8M position. That can often mean on pacers are advantaged and suspect there will be some advantage to be on speed today, but with so much of the track being used over this week we should get pretty even racing. They will come to the outside rail again down the straight and there should be no disadvantage to be drawn out wide.
In the feature Mackinon Stakes, which thankfully is called the Mackinnon Stakes again, and not the Emirates Stakes we really arenít getting much in the way of different fields from when the race was run on Derby Day, except the 3YO Derby horses can now back up into this race. Smallish field and a lot of these are not WFA horses or are mixing their form so there is unlikely to be any surprises. Small field also means the on pacers can dictate with the 4-TRAP OF FOOLS leading (who may go better at MV) and the 3-BLAIR HOUSE sitting off him, and the 2-PRIZED ICON and 7-LATROBE next.
The short priced favourite 3-BLAIR HOUSE does look the one to beat both runs in Australia have been excellent, finished on well late in the Underwood and then toughed it out head to head in the Caulfield Stakes when only just beaten. Should box seat here and be really hard to beat. Plenty of respect for the 3YO VRC Derby winner backing up the 9-EXTRA BRUT, his win last week was one of the best Derby wins for a while, was wide off a furious tempo and just kept coming and staying. Only concern might be that was an extremely tough run and how much he has left backing up today, but he is a seriously good horse and can win this. Watch out for the pesky non-winner 2-PRIZED ICON too, last run wasnít too bad and he is going to box seat on the speed here and might run a lot better than expected. From a punting point of view probably largely staying out of this race, there isnít much value and think the favourite probably wins, maybe some exotics with the favourite to win and anchoring the two other selection to place and going wide for third.
The golden rule for Cup Week is always get on horses that have ran well doing the week who are backing up again, same track, short time frame, they are going to run well again. So watch out for Race 1: 3-MANUEL , Race 5:7-JAMMEH and Race 6: 13-MISS SISKA though there are a stack who havenít done as well going around as well. We have had an extremely ordinary week, though things started to pick up a little on Oaks Day, but will have to double up to $100 to try and dig the money pit hole a bit deeper.
BEST WIN: Race 3: 6-RINGERDINGDING $10 WIN
TRIFECTA: Race 3: 6-RINGERDINGDING / 1,4,9,12,14 / 1,4,9,11,12,13,14,15 x $10 = 28.5%
Has been racing well all spring, except the flat run at Caulfield 2 starts back (when we backed and tipped him). Flew home 1st up at MV, solid win 2nd up at Bendigo, did nothing at Caulfield on wet track and then was the black booker of the day on Cox Plate day on a dynamite leaders track when stormed home with jet engines from well back. They should be able to run on and win OK today and there does look to be a genuine speed in this race that will favour runners on. Back straight out at round $4, although have to say we are slightly wary of backing the favourite in this race as it is often won by fresher horses at the bottom of the weights. Good chance some of those will get into the finish, so lets also anchor him to win in a trifecta, with value roughies like the 12-NO EMOTION, 14-BIG NIGHT OUT and try and score a get out dividend for Cup Week. We have taken a few of these trifectas this spring and got the winner each time, but missed the exotic and yes we have included the 11-BRICKTOP the $100 outsider in the placings, it is well over the odds.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 4-DREAMFORCE $10 WIN
Sydney galloper with a solid win strike rate and both runs in Melbourne this time in have been good. Jumped to the lead and fought on well at Caulfield and should be fitter for that run. There doesnít look to be much depth in this race and a few of these are really struggling for form, so he really should be able to jump to the lead again and give himself every chance, with the only other speed coming form the 3-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR. Happy to back straight out at round $6 as he just looks ready to win and very well suited in this race.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 2-BRAVE SMASH $7 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 2-BRAVE SMASH, 1-REDZEL x $2 = 200%
QUINELLA: Race 7: 2-BRAVE SMASH#6,8,13 x $3 = 100%
Pretty consistent sprinter whose every run this time in has been full of merit and really like the last start win when jockey was smart enough to just settle him one slot more forward than usual and that made the difference to winning the race. Only run down the straight was in the Newmarket when he won the race along the inside and was full of running. Drawn wide is a plus, probably just want him to settle a tiny bit more forward again as there doesnít seem to be much speed in this race. Back each way at around $15 and should be plenty of value in a quinella in a even betting field with the favourite the 1-REDZEL who should get a pretty soft lead and normally keeps his form, and the other on pacer the 6-PIERATA, the import 8-SPIRIT OF VALOUR who has had a good spring, and the 13-SPRIGHT who is going to go around at huge odds despite coming off two great runs at MV.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 13-SULLY $5 EW
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 12-MISS ADMIRATION $5 EW
The 13-SULLY is a lightly raced stayer who seems to be building this spring and suspect has probably been aimed towards this race. Fitter for the 4 runs in, ran on well in first two starts this spring, led and only run down late in the Cranbourne Cup and was OK in MV Cup when stepping up in distance. Should have a lot of improvement to come off that run and should go forward here from a good barrier in race where there doesnít seem to be that much speed. There is another we were interested in here, the 12-MISS ADMIRATION who has been running on really well, and made great ground last start against the bias at MV. Prefer to go with the one on speed at around $18, but back both each way as both are double figure odds.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 2,6,11,13,18 boxed x $10 = 100%
The last race is just a total raffle, so best way to go in just a wide box quinella. The 13-AS IT LIES has been racing well in the country, the 18-I DID IT AGAIN is really on its last chance but has been thereabouts, the 2-ESPERANCE wasnít suited on MV leaders track, the 6-SIRIUS SUSPECT is going OK in the country and the 11-ORDER OF COMMAND has good straight track form. Box them up and watch the chaotic finish in the big field straight track race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 10-BOXACHOCOLATES $3 EW
Away from the two favourites in this race, the 7-DANON ROMAN, 5-LUCKY FOR ALL the rest really arenít that crash hot so good chance something at value can get into the finish. This one is fitter for the 3 runs in, ran on well last start, and is a winner over 2000M. Might just prefer it with some give in the ground, but also like that he can race forward here in a race with no speed at all. If they go forward and he lobs on speed he might run a lot better than the $26 suggest so a little something each way.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 13-MISS SISKA $5 EW
The Matriach can often throw up a value winner and a lot of this field are mixing their form. She has drawn well, and will go forward and make her own luck. Was OK here on Tuesday when right in the middle of the rain and storm. 2000M is a query, but horses who donít run 2000M have won this race before. Winner of this race often comes through the Tuesday race and cant see much pressure up front here so she should give you a good run for your money at around $19.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 11-MIDTERM at around $6.50
We did struggle to find a Lay of the Day today, but we know everyone follows them for the side splitting laughs when they get up and win. This one is an imported stayer and to be fair his form this spring has been a bit plain. Is drawn well and can go forward, but think he is well under his correct odds based on what his form is. In fact the 8-NORTHWEST PASSAGE beat him home easily in the Geelong Cup and is going to start 3 x the odds here. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
RUNNING DOUBE: Races 5,6: 7,12,13 / 1,8,11,12,13 x $5 = 33.33%
There should be some value in the staying race as we quite like two at double figure odds the
13-SULLY, and 12-MISS ADMIRATION, but we better put in the favourite the 7-JAAMEEH as well. Running double should pay pretty well into a wide open Matriach, especially if we spot a double figure winner in the first leg. Plenty of value in the mares 2000M race with the on speed 13-MISS SISKA, the classy, but disappointing on Saturday 1-ALOISIA, the 11-TEMPLE OF BEL who will drop back but is looking for the 200M, and the 12-AQUA DíIVINA and just in case, our old favourite 8-SHEEZDASHING who has a lot of ability but probably need some rain and needs to get a race where they are running on OK.
Race 1: 3-MANUEL, 2-AL PASSEM, 7-ESHTIRAAK
Race 2: 7-DANON ROMAN, 10-BOXACHOCOLATES, 5-LUCKY FOR ALL
Race 3: 6-RINGERDINGDING, 12-NO EMOTION, 14-BIG NIGHT OUT
Race 4: 4-DREAMFORCE, 1-WIDGEE TURF, 3-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR
Race 5: 13-SULLY, 7-JAAMEEH, 12-MISS ADMIRATION
Race 6: 13-MISS SISKA, 1-ALOISIA, 11-TEMPLE OF BEL
Race 7: 2-BRAVE SMASH, 1-REDZEL, 13-SPRIGHT
Race 8: 3-BLAIR HOUSE, 9-EXTRA BRUT, 2-PRIZED ICON
Race 9: 13-AS IT LIES, 18-I DID IT AGAIN (emerg), 2-ESPERANCE, 6-SIRIUS SUSPECT