|FLEMINGTON : MACKINNON STAKES - 9th November 2019|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: RAIN/WIND - Rail: OUT 9M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Utterly amazing that despite consistent showers and rain on Thursday we still raced on a GOOD(4) track. There was solid rain Thursday night and more forecast Friday and into Saturday so surely we will have to be racing on a genuine soft track by race day. Lots of wind forecast again, and the racing pattern on Oaks Day definitely favoured those running on late and on pacers struggled to get into the finish. So tough windy and wet conditions and look for tough horses today. Down the straight they will come to the outside rail, though they have been able to win up the middle of the track on Cup Day and Oaks Day.
In the feature Mackinnon Stakes we have a very big field of pretty much every horse that has been contesting these events over spring, so pretty much a Best Of Spring Recap Episode . So itís a very even field, but we get the feeling a lot of these have missed their spring targets, or are not racing in their best form so there looks to be a lot of no hopers to us. The speed here should be genuine but not overly fast with the 2-GAILO CHOP and 14-MAGIC WAND going forward, and note that the 16-ARISTIA is going to get a perfect on speed sit here, and the only others sitting handy are the 7-HARLEM and 11-FIFTY STARS. There is no doubt the 15-MELODY BELLE is the one to beat here, her win last Saturday from well behind was sensational, she is a proven WFA horse and most importantly she just keeps winning and most of these are mixing it up a little. Drawn wide, they should be winning running on, though would prefer she didnít drop as far back as last week. The main danger is actually the 16-ARISTIA who she ran down last week, perfect draw, kicked clear here last week and looked the winner and drawn to get a perfect on speed run. Probably just prefers it a little drier, but looks great value at $21 and note they could have ran her in the Matriarch where she would have just about started favourite, but they have given the harder race a crack which is always a positive sign. The 3-HUMIDOR is a winning chance, ran on well at Caulfield, and then the MV Cup probably wasnít ideal, remember his 2000M form includes an Australian Cup win and two Cox Plate placings. He will be suited running on late out wide, another who probably prefers it a bit firmer. Respect for the 8-KINGS WILL DREAM too who was actually pretty good in the Cox Plate making ground out wide when the main contenders had already pinched the race. Best rough is the old favourite 9-LIFE LESS ORDINARY, who is better over the 2000M, was OK here last week over 1600M but will fight this race out as he always does and has good Flemington stats. Amazingly he has 11 placings from 13 starts over 2000M, but has only won once! This is a wide betting race with plenty of value, think we can box these up in a quinella or running double and you should go close to a collect and want to have something each way on the 16-ARISTIA.
For the Sprint Classic, the small field down the straight at WFA will make tactics vital. Really the 2-NATURE STRIP gets a clear and uncontested lead here and he is hard to beat when he does that, just worried about a windy day firing him up. Most of his rivals are backmarkers, so maybe look for something that can sit just off him. The 1-SANTA ANNA LANE has just come a tad too late last two starts and won this race last year. The 8 placings from 10 starts on slow ground surprises us, as we always had him flagged as being a query on wet ground. Does look the one to beat, though think the $2.40 is under the odds. Maybe also watch out for those who have missed The Everest and might have improvement to come, rather than those racing past their Grand Final. The 4-THE BOSTANIAN has been building towards a win, and the value runner is almost certainly the 6-ZOUTORI who matched it with the (1) here two starts back carrying almost equal weights. Think you can forgive his run here last Saturday when a beaten short priced favourite, the recent rain made the track a bit slippery and he ran OK and always pays to watch out for horses backing up during Cup Week who have ran well. Overall though think we have to put the 9-LOVING GABY on top, these lightly weighted 3YOs are often hard to beat in the feature sprints, Williams has had a great spring carnival and she can hopefully go forward again and sit handy and kick for home and pinch the race from the backmarkers.
We have had a great week on the punt, making solid profits Derby Day and Cup Day and being right in the finish several times on Oaks Day and just missing. One of the important rules of Stakes Day is to follow up on horses that have run well during the week and are backing up again, they invariably keep their form. We think there is a bit of value around today and have spotted some great roughies so are going to double up to $100 in the Betting Portfolio. Good luck to anyone who thinks they can get out for the carnival in Race 9!
BEST WIN: Race 4: 8-CARIF $15 WIN
There is a short priced favourite in this race, the 5-TRUE SELF who was really good in the Geelong Cup and almost ran down PRINCE OF ARRAN who was right in the finish of the Melbourne Cup, but he is also very short at around $2.20. We actually prefer to back the 8-CARIF who was fantastic here last Saturday and straight away went into the Black Book as the horse to back today if he backed up. He chased hard and was making really solid ground when also hanging in first time Melbourne way of going. Should be plenty of improvement to come from that run and this looks a race in two so happy to back this one straight out at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 9-LOVING GABY $7.50 EW
This 3YO filly has become a bit of a sprinting sensation and good to see her living up to her early potential. Well documented that a positive ride from jockey Williams won the Manikato, and these fit, in form 3YOs are very hard to beat in the WFA sprints when they get such big weight pulls. We think there isnít much speed up front here so hoping they go forward again and sit handy and she pings for home and pinches the race ahead of the late finishing backmarkers. Looks a good each way bet at round $7.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 7-RONDINELLA $7.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 7-RONDINELLA#13-GIRL TUESDAY, 5-ALIFEROUS x $5 = 250%
We have a big note in our form notes for this meeting to always back fit, in form, on pace mares in this race, and she fits the bill perfectly. The speed here actually looks quite genuine with the 1-SPANISH REEF, 3-AMANGIRI, 8-GREYSFUL GLAMOUR and 9-MISS SISKA all capable of going forward, but a few of them are a bit suspect at the 2000M. The 7-RONDINELLA is going to sit just behind them, probably needs to get off the rails from an inside barrier, but she is a tough staying mare who is proven over further. She has been well in the betting last two starts and we have deliberately stayed away as been waiting for further distance and she has raced like she wants the 2000M, tough and grinding away. Back each way at around $5 and you might get better odds on the day in a big field, and save on a quinella with the 13-GIRL TUESDAY who looks the main danger, dropping nicely in weights from MV and a strong finisher, as is the 5-ALIFEROUS who was good here on Cup Day in a race that is often a good guide to this.
QUINELLA: Race 3: 6-BANQUO, 7-FLOREAT PICA, 9-SOPHIAíS CHOICE boxed x $6 = 200%
No wonderfully detailed reason for this bet, we just looked at the tips and thought that quinella will probably pay OK. This 3YO race is always a bit tricky, the winner often comes off country form and we have a short priced spruik favourite that we are happy to go around. The 7-FLOREAT PICA is the value runner here and a strong finisher if that is the pattern.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 10-PLOT THE COURSE $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 1,2,10,11 boxed x $6 = 100%
Letís try to get off to an absolute flying start to the day with a top pick $20 winner in the first. We know this horseís form extremely well, he is much better on a wet track and needs a track where they are running on and winning. He is 3rd up today, and has placed 5 from 6 when 3rd up, and the last run at MV is much better than it looks as he had to go wide and early around the whole field to try and offset a leaderís biased track. There should be genuine enough speed for him to run on today and watch for those black and yellow colours running on late down the middle of the track at around $20. Plenty of value in the quinella, with the favourite the 1-MANDELA EFFECT, who we have slight queries over with 59kgs on a wet track 1600M, the Sydney back marker the 2-RANIER, and donít rule out the consistent 11-MR EXCLUSIVE after that poor run at Geelong, suspect the track was a bit firm for him that day and he has good form here and over the 1600M.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 1-STREETS OF AVALON $5 EW
This is our favourite horse, so it is obligatory we put him in the bets, especially after we didnít actually put him as top pick at Caulfield when he won. The trick to him is that he simply doesnít run 1600M, his runs in the Toorak and last Saturday here in the Cantala were actually pretty good as he was contesting the lead about 200M out in both races, but faded. He is paying for his consistency now having to carry 59 kgs which is some concern, and he probably does prefer it drier, but he is tough as, and looks to lead here or sit on speed out to the middle of the track with not much pressure up front and just tough it out down the straight. Suspect he might be tougher than a lot of these today, a lot of his opposition are a bit soft, and be in the finish at around $18.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 16-ARISTIA $5 WIN, $8 PLACE
Big field in the feature race so there is plenty of value. Whilst the 15-MELODY BELLE is the horse to beat, we quite like the run of the 16-ARISTIA in the same race last week and she is drawn to get a perfect on speed run here today. Another who would prefer it drier, but think she will present at the right time in the straight at around $26 and think she might get backed too so maybe put your bets on today.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 3-KNICKPOINT at around $2.40
Again no particular reason for this, other than we have a severe allergy to short priced spruik Sydney horses in blue colours. This generally isnít a favouriteís race and can often throw up funny results and these type of horses just start way under the odds. If he had other colours and these wins were in Victoria he would be double the odds at least. Happy to lay and seems silly odds in a race where it is difficult to have a confident bet regardless.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a helicopter ride home.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 3,8,9,15,16 boxed x $5 = 50%
We tipped the trifecta in the Derby here on Saturday, got a bit ambitious and missed a very gettable First Four in the Oaks so letís stick to the feature races. We think the two mares the 15-MELODY BELLE and 16-ARISTIA are the two to beat here, but donít think itís a good trifecta race as just about anything could place. There should be plenty of value in the quinella though in a big field with the two mares, and the other chances the 3-HUMIDOR, 8-KINGS WILL DREAM and roughie 9-LIFE LESS ORDINARY. And whatís the bet they run the trifecta after we have totally wussed it and only taken a quinella.
Race 1: 10-PLOT THE COURSE, 2-RANIER, 11-MR EXCLUSIVE
Race 2: 7-GRINZINGER STAR, 12-RIDGEWOOD DRIVE, 2-WETAKEMANHATTAN
Race 3: 6-BANQUO, 7-FLOREAT PICA, 9-SOPHIAíS CHOICE
Race 4: 8-CARIF, 5-TRUE SELF, 1-RED CARDINAL
Race 5: 9-LOVING GABY, 1-SANTA ANNA LANE, 6-ZOUTORI
Race 6: 7-RONDINELLA, 13-GIRL TUESDAY, 5-ALIFEROUS
Race 7: 10-REYKJAVIK, 1-STREETS OF AVALON, 3-ADMIRALíS JOKER
Race 8: 15-MELODY BELLE, 16-ARISTIA, 3-HUMIDOR
Race 9: 7-MORRISSY, 6-MOOR WANTED, 2-POISED TO STRIKE