The Flemington track has raced really well this week, even after all the rain on Monday, but sheesh it is going to be facing a big challenge today with a stack of wind and rain forecast. Most of the rain is forecast to come after the meeting starts, so we are going to be getting continual track downgrades and probably late scratchings, so it’s really tough to do the form for this meeting the day before. Working off a SOFT(7) track and they will be coming off the rails and down the middle of the track most of the meeting, so it will be difficult to lead and win. Outside rail will be fastest down the straight races.
Been an extraordinary run of favourites this week (which is pretty much unheard of for Melbourne Cup week), but the conditions today should throw the form out and pretty much anything could happen. We didn’t even get warm on Oaks Day (despite there not being that many upsets), and whilst we have been around the money on the suggested bets it has been a pretty ordinary week. Doing the form for the Champions Mile as the more interesting race to look at and doubling up to $100 with the Betting Portfolio as always plenty to bet on. Playing with some fun exotics to try and grab a collect on the final day of Cup Week.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows), and will continue until C.F.Orr Stakes Day. Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE $10 WIN
QUINELLA Race 7: 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE#9-TREASURETHE MOMENT, 3-PERICLES x $5 = 250%
Not much between the top few chances in the feature mile, so think you just need to just bite the bullet and be confident and pick one to back. And that means going with the proven performer time and time again in this race (4th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st last four years), who goes even better on wet tracks and just loves tough conditions. Will sit handy, he is racing as well as ever and he won’t be put off by the fast speed leader. Back straight out at around $3.40 (and he has been well backed) and take some confident quinellas with the main danger the 9-TREASURETHE MOMENT (and we struggled to split these two), and the value runner in the 3-PERICLES.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 13-HE’LL RIP $5 EW, QUINELLA 10,11,13,14 boxed x $6 = 100%
This one just loves racing at Flemington and was a good run here on Cup Day when he was held up for runs at a crucial stage and then worked home well afterwards. Has drawn wide here and jockey needs a positive ride and to get in with come cover - he is best ridden with cover and allowed to burst through with a sharp sprint, a few times (like MV 2 starts back), he has dropped out to last and has been given no chance. He does prefer ground on the firmer side so wouldn’t be backing him if this race was later in the day. Back each way at around $12 looks good value and whilst the favourite 2-SABAJ was really unlucky last start the short odds here are ridiculous and likely to get even more so, so take him on and box up a value quinella with the good last start winner from Sydney the 14-SEVEN’S, the 11-NATION’S CALL who handles it wet and will lead and a roughie in the 10-OUTTA COMPTON.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 13-DE BERGERAC $5 EW, QUINELLA 1,3,6,10,13 boxed x $5 = 50%
Amazed at the odds this one keeps going around at, especially down the straight. Last 4 runs down the Flemington straight are 1st, 5th (drew wrong side), 1st and 2nd – he absolutely loves it here. Seems to handle it wet just fine and strong finisher who just needs them to go fast enough in front and to get towards the better ground on the outside rail. Back each way at around $13. Box up a value quinella with the 3-KING OF ROSEAU who was good winning here a few months back and loves it wet, the tough old 1-FRONT PAGE with weight who may get a soft lead here, the Sydney visitor the 6-NEEDS SOME LUCK and yes, yes, yes, we know, we do keep pushing for him, but he has been racing OK and just needs some speed on so he can run into the race with roughie 10-SUPERAZI at $100. We tipped him last week and they just didn’t go fast enough and he was working home well.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 6-SEA WHAT I SEE $5 EW
TRIFECTA Race 4: 5,6 / 3,5,6,7,12 / 1,3,5,6,7,12,13 x $10 = 25%
This one has been racing really consistently, and can go forward and sit on the speed and get every chance. She was controlling the tempo nicely last start at MV and then one made a mid-race move and totally threw her rhythm off, but she was fighting on well on the line against the 5-SHE’S A HUSTLER and meets that one a healthy 4kgs better off here. Not quite convinced about this one in the wet, so would prefer the track to stay on the better side of SOFT for this race. Back each way at around $6 and think this is a good wide trifecta race with the main danger the 5-SHE’S A HUSTLER to win and quite liked the run of the 12-BLINDEDBYTHELIGHT last start getting too far back and coming out wide who may get into the finish at odds, as may the wet tracker the 7-GOOD BANTER.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 2-BERKELEY SQUARE $7 EW
This one has just been racing so consistently and deserves a win. Loves Flemington and handles it wet, though worth noting most of this recent best form has been on dry tracks. Worked home really well here from well back off a furious tempo two starts back and again worked home well in the Geelong Cup in tough conditions. A lot of these are just going along fairly and he can probably outstay them here in tough conditions. This is the main bet of the day, each way at around $7.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 15-STRAWBERRY ROCK $2 EW
We looked up and down this field quite a few times trying to find the third pick, some of these just plod along, and a few don’t handle the wet (so sorry 13-GRAND PIERRO). And ended up with this one at close to $100 so we better have something on as a roughie. Solid staying type when right, good wet track form and he should be fitter for the three runs in and run over the 2400M last start, when he seemed to be running into form this time in. Drawn well and will settle handy and whack way, and think he is going to run a lot better than these odds suggest today.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 9-YALDI $3 EW, QUINELLA 6,7,9,10,11 boxed x $5 = 50%
Last race of the week and hard against the outside rail will be the best ground down the straight, so this one should be well suited as a strong finisher who was really eye-catching come home late last start. Handles it wet and was a $15 roughie when we started writing this up but has suddenly jumped into $8?? (wasn’t us), odds are jumping all over the place here. Back each way and again take a wide quinella with the 6-STOLI BOLI who has to win a race sometime with such consistent form, the strong finishing the 11-SWEETHEARTED who wasn’t suited on an on-speed Caulfield track last time, roughie the 7-CODIGO with good straight track form who may get a soft run on-speed back towards the inside, and the clear leader the 10-BALASTIER splashing mud into the faces of those behind.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 2-SABAJ at around $2.50
Might as well get this out of the way early in the day. This one was super unlucky last start and probably deserves to be favourite, but suspect they are going to stack on here and will start even shorter than this. Never seen a wet track, 2nd up and up 300M and was scratched from a race on Cup Day, and has ended up with an even wetter track than that. May win, but on a messy racing day not keen to go backing short priced favourites.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into some quality planks for an Ark.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 3: 13-DE BERGERAC
PLACE Race 7: 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE
PLACE Race 8: 11-BENAGIL
PLACE Race 9: 9-YALDI
Looking at around $300 for a $5 outlay, going with some consistent performers early on and some more value runners later in the day.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,3,6,7,10 / 1,3,9 / 10,11 / 6,7,9,10,11 x $20 = 13.33%
Tricky quaddie as the conditions are going to change during the day and there may also be late scratchings so wait till close to start time before putting a quaddie on. Go wide early, main chances in the mile, just throw one other in to upset the short-priced favourite 10-VIA SISTINA in the feature 2000M and suspect the 11-BENAGIL may be ready to run a race today and a wide last leg for value.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 7 CHAMPIONS MILE 1600M GROUP 1 WFA
The fields are on the smaller side for the Champions Sprint, Champions Mile and Champions Stakes but this is the race that really captures the interest. To be honest we much preferred this mile race as a handicap, it always attracted a big field and was a great value race to try and get out on at the end of the week. Obviously the 7-PRIDE OF JENNI is the clear leader here, and there doesn’t seem to be much to pressure her early again, with the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE and 9-TREASURETHE MOMENT sitting next in line and having to reel her in and pretty much anything can settle next in the run here, maybe the 3-PERICLES.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-MR BRIGHTSIDE needs no introduction and is as tough and as consistent as they come. His record at Flemington (won 5/13, placed 9/13) and over 1600m (won 13/24, placed 20/24) is extraordinary, but it’s his record in this race that is the really amazing statistic. He is racing here for the 5th year in a row, having gone 4th, 3rd, 2nd and 1st in the four previous attempts and winning this race last year. So what comes after first? A statue! Big plus with him is that he handles a wet track no issues at all, in fact he probably goes better in it. He fought on well last start in Sydney and most importantly he has chased down 7-PRIDE OF JENNI here before here on a wet track and he can do it again. Suited at WFA against these as the proven WFA performer time and time again. Strong chance.
2-CEOLWULF finally got back to his best form with a strong feature 1600M win after a slightly disappointing spring, where he hadn’t been beaten that far, but just hadn’t lived up to his promise. Big tick for the previous feature race 2000M win coming onto a heavy track. Wet no issue for this one and strong finisher who looks perfectly suited on a big track and a fast leader running them along. First time Melbourne way of going, but he is well proven past 1600M and that is another big plus here. Question might be how much of a head-start he gives the two other class horses up near the speed. Strong chance.
3-PERICLES has been racing extremely well this spring and ran into the race like the winner last start before fading a little late. Proven on heavy ground, interesting that his 1600M stats don’t look that good at first glance, but they have nearly all been in feature miles, including Doncaster and Epsom placings. He has a great turn of foot, not sure if the conditions today may dampen that a bit? He is probably the value runner here, his form is good enough to get into the finish here. Rough.
4-LAKE FOREST became a social media sensation with the trainer’s comments after the last ride in Sydney, apparently he needs really hard riding to get moving. Won the Golden Eagle from last during last Spring and it will be interesting to see riding tactics today. Never seen a wet track. Impossible to line up here, but you would think the tough conditions and Flemington and the 1600M fast tempo would all be positives, but bit hard to push for a horse that came last in his previous start. No.
5-STEPARTY is slowly getting back to the form that saw him run favourite in the 2023 Caulfield Guineas, having had an injury lay off. He has had some good 1600M form since then, but have always thought that was absolutely as far as he wants to go. Good late at Caulfield and then ran well here to be in the finish last Saturday and always follow them backing up off good runs during Cup week. Soft track runs seem fair enough. He is one who can probably be ridden more forward here, but just not sure about him over a WFA 1600M on wet ground and fast tempo – that is going to test him. No
6-VON HAUKE has been promising to win a good race for some time and everything fell into place at MV last start when he railed through and the gap opened to run over the top of them late. Soft track win was actually a maiden and suspect this one is a bit suspect on soft going (think he has been scratched a few times before on wet tracks?). Speed on here will suit a strong finisher and he does goes better here at Flemington and racing well. But hard to have at WFA against these – would have loved this to be a handicap! Passing.
7-PRIDE OF JENNI is one we were all over when she was breaking out in the spring of 2023, but she has been a bit hit and miss since and we have gotten it wrong a few times now. She is vulnerable when tactics are to ride against her (like in the Cox Plate last year), but there are few who are willing to take the risk and doubt she gets much pressure in this race today. She seems to go better Melbourne way of going these days. Thing is she either wins stunningly or fades badly and you need to guess which sort of run it is likely to be. The races she has won recently have been small fields when fresh and track favouring those on-speed. She was up against a lot of horses with a 1600M query here last week and they let her get away in front. She wins when she can rail on on-speed tracks and she is a definite query on wet tracks, especially wet tracks where they are likely to be coming off the rails. Is a good winner backing up within Cup week. Made the mistake of taking her on last week which was stupid, but think justified to take her on this week. Risking.
8-STEFI MAGNETICA only makes rare trips down to Melbourne but she stars up in Sydney. Stormed down the middle of the track to win over 1400M last start, and proved herself over a strong 1600M with Doncaster win back in April. She was right in the finish of this race last year and seems to handle wet tracks with no issues. Barrier 1 is probably not the best if they are coming off the rails, and her win last start was off a 6 week break so she has had only 1200M and 1400M runs coming into a tough feature mile. Think some of the other milers will have her measure today and prefer place. Place.
9-TREASURETHE MOMENT looked like the next big thing with her stunning first up win in the Memsie, and then she seemed to lose her way a little bit after a minor setback. Cox Plate run was excellent, she booted for home on the turn and they really had to fight to run her down. Quite like the drop back to 1600M here in tough conditions, this race is probably going to be more like a 2000M race. She handled a wet track in Sydney at her only try. She will settle in the second bunch here behind the (7) and this is her chance to reel her in and make amends for beaten as a short-priced favourite. Looks a great race shape here chasing down the leader down the middle of the track. Hard to beat.
10-LEICA LUCY chased hard here last week and was a strong effort in the Toorak Hcp before that. Looks to be building to a 1600M win this time in, and she looks a strong finisher down the middle of the track which is what we want here. Looks to handle wet tracks, so she gets a pretty good set up here. Question is whether she is up to the class of the top few here, probably not at WFA and she would have been right in this if it was a handicap and she was getting more of a weight pull. Place.
Summary:
This looks a great race to watch and a great betting race with 7-PRIDE OF JENNI rolling along in the lead and three other proven top class WFA horses trying to chase her down and there is not much between them in the betting or on the form. In the tough conditions we have to go for the proven and reliable 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE who will get a nice run behind the speed and have to reign in the leader, but he is proven time and time again in these races, and loves the wet and grinding way. Nothing much at all between him and the TREASURETHE MOMENT here, really liked the Cox Plate run and she will sit second here and be the first to run into the race here to try and grind down the leader. Going to throw in the roughie 3-PERICLES for third, that run last start was better than it looked and looks to handle it wet. The 2-CEOLWULF running on late as the other main chance, but giving these a head start. Most of this field are racing pretty well and in-form, so it’s just the wet conditions, the fast tempo and the WFA scale that is going to separate them. Great race!
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. PREPARE THE ARK.
Race 2: 13-HE’LL RIP, 14-SEVEN’S, 11-NATION’S CALL,
Race 3: 13-DE BERGERAC, 3-KING OF ROSEAU, 1-FRONT PAGE
Race 4: 6-SEA WHAT I SEE, 5-SHE’S A HUSTLER, 12-BLINDEDBYTHELIGHT
Race 5: 2-BERKELEY SQUARE, 4-ETNA ROSSO, 15-STRAWBERRY ROCK
Race 6: 10-TENTRYIS, 3-CABALLUS, 6-JOLIESTAR
Race 7: 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 9-TREASURETHE MOMENT, 3-PERICLES
Race 8: 10-VIA SISTINA, 11-BENAGIL, 2-LIGHT INFANTRY MAN
Race 9: 9-YALDI, 6-STOLI BOLI, 11-SWEETHEARTED
