The Flemington track has raced fantastically this week, every day we have started out with some rain and some give and it has dried out and race very fairly. Probably tendency towards those on-speed and drawn close to the rails most days as the inside dries out faster. Down the straight the outside rail has been the place to be and often the wider the better. Stakes Day there is going to be rain during the races and we should end up on a track in the genuine SOFT range and probably deteriorating, so we are not going to get the improvements we have seen on other days. They should be coming off the rails more today and allow them to run on and win and we are looking at a genuine soft to heavy track. Note that track has actually come up a GOOD(4) race morning and good chance most of the rain has missed, but who knows.
We finally got two winners on top on Oaks Day, after a rather patience-trying 47 race drought. There were quite a few short-priced favourites who went down, but never fear the one favourite we picked out as the Lay of the Day still won making it an extraordinary 8 out of the last 9 winning. Quite a few straight races today and the outside rail has been the best going all week, but just be wary in Race 4 and Race 9 with big fields it may be difficult for horses to come from well back with them all crowded against the outside rail, and something on-speed or cutting through with a clear run at them may win. Also note jockey Pike in the last race this week has managed an unlucky 2nd on GEEGEES MISTRUTH on Saturday, a win on FUNDAMENTAL NATURE on Tues and a win with a great ride on REY MAGNERIO on Thursday, he comes home with outsider 17-FISSION in the last race today.
We have two short priced favourites here in the Race 6: 6-TEMPTED and the Race 7: 8-AUTMUMN GLOW who both look extremely hard to beat. Hard to see 8-AUTMUMN GLOW getting beaten given her opposition, but although 6-TEMPTED is flying she is vulnerable today, she was trained and ridden to win the Everest last start, she has never been down the Flemington straight before and there are a few sprinters here who are capable of causing the upset. We have learnt a few times this spring that straight racing is very different and can upset the short priced favourites, so whilst she is going to be extremely hard to beat will also be considering others in that race, mainly the 7-JOLIESTAR and 9-SKYBIRD as proven straight track and wet track performers.
For Spring Campaign 2026 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 1-COSMIC CRUSADER $5 WIN
QUINELLA Race 8: 1-COSMIC CRUSADER#5-BIRDMAN, 9-OMNI MAN x $2 = 100%
The outstanding form horse of the spring, who has won from 1200M to 2000M, on all sorts of tracks, from all sorts of positions and meeting the same field he beat last time, and went past all of them – and he is not even going to start favourite?? He has had a long hard preparation, but we have underestimated him all spring and still don’t think punters have realised how extraordinary his campaign has been. Back straight out at around $3.50 and anchor in the quinella with the main danger the 5-BIRDMAN who may dash clear at some stage and the fresh horse on the scene against these the 9-OMNI MAN.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 3-BERKELEY SQUARE $5 EW
Tough old campaigner who keeps his best form for Flemington (four wins) and wet tracks and he was the first local horse home in the Geelong Cup in a strong form race and was strong late with a big weight in the Bendigo Cup. Handles all conditions and super fit and in-form and the last two runs have been excellent in strong competitive staying fields. Deserves to win this. Each way at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 11-PHOTOGRAPH $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 1,8,9,11 boxed x $3 = 50%
Has been racing well this spring, without much luck at all, mainly because he keeps dropping back in the run and needs speed on and a track allowing them to run on. Dropped to the back of the field here last week and was unlucky searching for runs when had plenty to give. He is much better on a wet track which he may get today, main issue will be weaving a path here through a big field, so will need a good ride. Each way at around $9. Box up a quinella with the main danger the 9-IMMORTAL STAR who drops nicely in weight here off a good win at Geelong and is proven down the straight, the consistent 1-ARKANSAW KID who may get a clear run on-speed towards the outside rail and similar for the 8-GRAND IMPACT.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 1,8,14,17,19 boxed x $5 = 50%
It is great that they program this wide open sprint down the straight as the last race each Cup Week for those trying to launch out. Track is likely to be firmer than expected, so happy to go for the 1-VERDOUX on top, we pushed for him last week here at $80 and he was seriously unlucky out the back of the field searching for runs before launching late for 5th. Going to need a good ride and some luck from the apprentice though. The 14-ROYAL RENDEZVOUS won against the race pattern at Geelong but he is another drawn wide and will drop back and they may squash towards the outside here so fingers crossed. The 19-LAYBOROUGH is racing extremely well, firmer track is a plus and will roll on-speed in clear running, the 8-ELECTRIC ELVIS has been racing really well in weaker races and then of course we come to the jockey Pike ride on 17-FISSION, rolling on-speed outside barrier, proven down the straight and prefers firm going so totally possible he does something here at $21.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 9-SKYBIRD $2 EW
Up against the short-priced favourite but think she is going to run a race here in the feature sprint. Won down the straight here two starts back on a wet track, and impressive winning the Lightning Stakes here last year, so that three starts down the straight for two wins and a second. No luck last start in Sydney when was out the back of the field and had to get into clear running and absolutely flew home late. Has drawn barrier 1 here, but think they just wear this and come back to the inside of the field and get a clear crack of them instead of trying to wait and weave through the field? Great roughie here at $26 and keen to have a bet.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 12-SUN GIFT $2 EW
We tipped this one last start at Flemington and thought the run was pretty good against these, sneaking up on the rails in a blanket finish. Totally forget the midweek heavy track run at Kyneton and they have decided to back her up here today and looks like the track is going to come up firmer than expected which is important. She is well drawn and there looks to be decent speed here to allow her to run on late. Rough at $35.
BEST PLACE: Race 7: 5-POUNDING $4 PLACE
We are not for an instant suggesting that this one is capable of upsetting the short-priced favourite, but the place odds are appealing at $7 for a really consistent horse that is just about always in the finish. The main place chance seems to be the 1-TOM KITTEN, but then we have 2-LINDERMANN who has failed multiple times in Melbourne, the 3-BUCKAROO who can be hot and cold, the 4-SEPALS who is a query at 1600M, the 7-EL SOLEADO out of form and the 9-WITHIN THE LAW who is probably the other main place challenger. Anyway, basically the third spot here is up for grabs, this one has great track and distance stats, had to carry 5kgs more than everything in front of him last start and the firmer track today is a plus so he may run into the placings here at odds.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 8-VIVY AIR at around $3.80
Drum roll please….Really you would think in a big even field of mares we would be pretty safe here? We follow this one and she has been going pretty well, but she does tend to drop back in the field and need luck getting runs and barrier 1, dropping back in a big field she is going to need a lot of luck. Risking.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a truckload of Turf Deli caps for the crowds on the lawn.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 3: 3-BERKELEY SQUARE
PLACE Race 4: 9-IMMORTAL STAR
PLACE Race 6: 9-SKYBIRD
PLACE Race 7: 1-TOM KITTEN
We haven’t attempted a Poor Man’s Quaddie for a while, but most of these should be thereabouts in the finish for a possible $300 collect.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 3,6,7,9 / 1,8 / 1,5,9,10 / 1,8,14,17,19 x $20 = 12.5%
Obviously if the favourites win the first two legs this won’t even cover your train fare home, but think its worth putting in some extras in the feature sprint and always worth putting in an insurance second runner in the narrow leg. Last leg is wide open so go as wide as possible.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 8: CHAMPION STAKES GROUP 1 WFA 2000M
The Champion Stakes, or the Mackinnon Stakes for the older and wiser punters has come up basically as a replay of the Cox Plate, this track and distance two weeks ago. Just 40M shorter. With green caps in the crowd instead of red caps.
We even have the same pace setters, with the 6-LAND LEGEND likely to work forward and try and run them along again from the 2-LIGHT INFANTRY MAN and maybe the 3-SIR DELIUS, 11-TREASURE THE MOMENT next in line. This is going to turn into a very tactical race, all the major contenders are going to be sitting out the back, they know how the race pattern is going to play out here and they were all fighting out the finish here in the Cox Plate with not much between them, so the best ride is going to win this. Going to be a great race to watch, some rain during the day should see them coming off the rails by this race and jockeys trying to steer to the best ground and on a genuine soft track or worse.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-COSMIC CRUSADER has gone from strength to strength this spring and we will be the first to admit we got him totally wrong and downplayed his chances most starts, but he just kept rising to every challenge and occasion. Seven starts this time in, four wins, one second, a third and a fourth, winning over 1200M to winning a Cox Plate to a fourth in the Caulfield Cup, this is one of the most outstanding preparations we have ever seen. He basically came from last here in the Cox Plate and went past the whole field – and went past most of those going around here as well. He is probably even better with some give in the ground. Drawn out and likely to get a similar ride here and he has beaten all of his main rivals here multiple times this spring. Only query may be how long he can keep this preparation going, but we said that last start as well. So the main question is why he is $3.30 and not favourite? If he was in a major stable he would be even money with his record this spring, but he has gone through his races without the racing media spruik to shorten the odds. Definitely the one to beat.
2-LIGHT INFANTRY MAN keeps his best form for Flemington and the 2000M and his effort in the Turnbull Stakes was excellent when he led and kicked and looked like he had pinched the race, till the (1) came out and ran him down late. Got crossed here in the Cox Plate and he was the first beaten on the turn and ran a very poor race, probably forget that run as he is better than that. Was OK in this race last year on a very heavy track, and won the Australian Cup here on a soft track, but have always thought that he was better on firm ground, so doubt wet track today is a positive. Basically he has been beaten last start by six other horses going around here so difficult to see him improving enough to turn that around. No.
3-SIR DELIUS was all the rage last spring before being ruled out with a vet check, but he has been really disappointing this spring. Stable admitted after the Cox Plate they still hadn’t got him fully fit, which was unusual, and caused much social media discussion. First two runs this time in he went to loom into the race but he didn’t show that finishing burst and we all expected to see it come out last start, but there was nothing there. Blinkers go on here. He can sit handy here and present at the right time – but what will he have to give? Watch the market on this one to see if the punters have the intel, because on his best form he would win this, but till then we just aren’t sure how he is going. Rough only.
4-ATTRITION is racing right at the top of his level here and we can probably just repeat the comments from the Cox Plate preview. Well held here last start against most of these. Won a fairly low standard edition of a Group 2 in Sydney previously and he has raced well in that race a few times now. The 2000M is right at the top of his distance range, and a solidly run 2000M probably finds him out, especially as this level. Better on firm tracks too. No
5-BIRDMAN has really gone up a notch his last few preparations from a decent enough stayer to a quality WFA horse and he won the Underwood Stakes with some ease showing a great turn of foot. He had to push out here to get a run last start and it did look like he had pinched the race before being run down late. Inside barrier here, but they will probably be coming off the rails so he won’t have as much trouble getting a run. He is better on firm tracks, so keep an eye on how much rain we get during the day. He was right in the finish of the Cox Plate and that means he is a strong chance here, quite like the way he dashed through there, he can win this race with the right run, bursting through the pack. Chance.
6-LAND LEGEND caused the boilover in the Caulfield Stakes with the jump and run tactics (and we had forgotten he did the same thing in the Melbourne Cup last year). He jumped slowly here in the Cox Plate and had to work early to get to the lead, but really showed nothing once he got there. He is one who definitely needs a firm track to show his best, so any rain here is a major issue. Not good enough off last run, but an important runner as the pace setter. No.
7-VON HAUKE is a good handicap miler on his day on a dry track, not so sure about a 2000M WFA Championship on a possible wet track. Fitter for the three runs in and thought he was ready to do something here last start but he showed very little. Never been to the 2000M and even on his best form he would be challenged here, and he is nowhere near his best form. No
8-SABAJ has shown a lot of potential and be working up through the grades in previous preparations, but seemed to hit the limit this time in. Returned to winning form here on Tues when dropped back in class and normally we want to be on anything backing up again within Cup week who has gone well, but not sure that race was that strong. Good run in the Australian Cup earlier this year. Won on a seriously wet track this day last year. Don’t think he is going well enough to trouble the top-liners here, place at very best. Place. SCRATCHED
9-OMNI MAN actually didn’t run in the Cox Plate, but instead came through the Geelong Cup and the form from that race is obviously very strong providing the Melbourne Cup winner. He was strong to the line there and it was a really good run, he was widest on the turn and the best ground and racing pattern was favouring those towards the inside. Was bought out here for the Melbourne Cup and didn’t make the field, but think he creates a lot of interest here as the fresh face on the scene. We can line up all the others and know where they slot in, but he is the unknown factor. He would want a wet track and a strong staying contest dropping back in distance, but think that Geelong Cup run was pretty good and he is a winning chance here. He may outstay them here if we get tough conditions. Chance.
10-AELIANA continues to race extremely well and she is always in the finish, but she has had her chances this spring with no excuses. Really can’t work out why she is clear favourite here, against two horses that beat her home over the same track and distance last start. Think she is better with some give in the ground which she should get today. She has won 6 from 22, but only 1 from 7 in Melbourne, although she has been in the finish pretty much every start down here, so not like we can fault her form. Strong winning chance and elevate her chances on a wet track, but she does start shorter than she should most starts. Chance.
11-TREASURE THE MOMENT has struggled for form this spring and her only good run was when the rest of the field were stopping behind PRIDE OF JENNI a few starts back. Wasn’t beaten far in the Caulfield Cup and didn’t contest the Cox Plate this year. She has been mixing her form last few preparations and really tough to know which horse is going to turn up today, she will sit handy and get every chance but had to tip or back with any confidence. No.
Summary:
We have been trying to talk down 1-COSMIC CRUSADER all spring, too long a preparation, too far in distance, track too firm, but really his campaign this time in has been nothing short of extraordinary. So we are going to put him on top today and let’s see if that can bring his winning form to a shuddering halt. Really he should be favourite here and a clear favourite, having beaten all of the major contenders last start, albeit only narrowly. Even stronger chances on a track with some rain. The 5-BIRDMAN the clear danger and he almost pinched the Cox Plate last start, so if the right run comes and he can dash clear early in the straight he might be hard to beat again. A lot of respect for the 9-OMNI MAN as the fresh horse on the scene here, all of the rest of these are right at the end of their preparations and that Geelong Cup run was really good and he is a genuine winning chance here. Obviously the 10-AELIANA the other winning chance and better if we get a wet track, but don’t understand why she is favourite for. Looking forward to see if the 1-COSMIC CRUSADER can continue on his winning way here in what has been an incredible spring.
Race 1: 7-GODDESS KAY, 8-JACQUETS OFF, 10-NATURAL EMOTION
Race 2: 13-SUPERFABULISTIC, 3-FIORENOT, 3-NATION’S CALL
Race 3: 3-BERKELEY SQUARE, 5-KING PEDRO, 4-PINHOLE
Race 4: 11-PHOTOGRAPH, 9-IMMORTAL STAR, 1-ARKANSAW KID
Race 5: 5-TOO DARN DISCREET, 12-SUN GIFT, 6-PRIVATE LEGACY
Race 6: 7-JOLIESTAR, 6-TEMPTED, 9-SKYBIRD
Race 7: 8-AUTUMN GLOW, 1-TOM KITTEN, 5-POUNDING
Race 8: 1-COSMIC CRUSADER, 5-BIRDMAN, 9-OMNI MAN
Race 9: 1-VERDOUX, 14-ROYAL RENDEZVOUS, 19-LAYBOROUGH
