Turf Deli quest for punting value : 25% BACK ON ALL LOSING BETS Click here for more details

CAULFIELD : THOUSAND GUINEAS - 15th Oct 2008

Track: GOOD (3) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($50): Bit of rain after the Caulfield Guineas meeting, but fine weather since and this track should come up good again. Invariably this track begins to wear with the rail staying in the same position as Sat, and always want to be on those running on down the middle of the track, and they will probably be swinging wide for the later races. Looks an extremely tough program on paper – some of the races, including the main race, are wide open. Best betting strategy is to take wide running doubles, or split your win bets around on several value chances in each race. RESULTS : Is a tough program - quite a few long shot winners and place getters. Track actually races very evenly and probably even tends towards those on pace - definitely those racing on the speed managed to stick on in most races which is unusual for this day. Hence the tips have a dead set shocker - almost a total wipe out. BEST WIN : Race 6: 10-CATS WHISKER, 11-SPARKS FLY $7.50 WIN 2nd 10-CATS WHISKER W=$9.30 The two Edward Manifold place getters look great value in the main race, and they will be the ones running on down the middle of the track, which is what we want. Keen to bet on these at odds. RESULTS : 10-CATS WHISKER actually leads and fights on OK - but no match for the one that beat it home again last start. Same weights, same distance, same result - think we would've learnt by now. BEST EACH WAY : Race 3: 2-DANDAAD $5 EW Fitter for the 2 runs in, ran home very well 1st up at MV, then fair effort at Flem. Not much in the way of speed in this race and can sit handy from a good barrier. Looks a safe each way bet. RESULTS : Starts short and drops well back in a race with no speed. Comes very wide and hard ridden and disappointing. BEST ROUGH : Race 5: 7-COUNT TO ZERO $5 EW Not sure if the favourite the (2) is running in this race, might get kept for Sat, but worth having something on this one anyway. 1st up run was OK, looked like he was just starting to warm up at the end and can be a bit hard to tell with those runs down the straight. 2nd up in this race last year he dropped out to last, cut the corner on the turn and got stopped dead in his tracks to finish well back – and went on to win at Flem 1400M on Derby Day the start after. Does need the speed on – and can’t see much speed at the moment, but don’t be surprised if he pulls out and finishes it off down the middle of the track. RESULTS : No speed on and on pacers dominate this event, but still disappointing. QUINELLA : Race 7: 7-DANE JULIA, 4-AUTUMN JEUNEY x $5 SCR = $5 QUINELLA : Race 7: 7-DANE JULIA, 14-SURFSIDE CHRISTMAS x $5 SCR = $5 Can’t believe it – all of our favourite horses ended up in the one race ! Is it Christmas? Been following 7-DANE JULIA every start this spring and well, haven’t collected, but surely she is due to win? Ran on well at Flem 2nd up on a leader’s track, then unlucky not to win in Group 2 company when had to switch out to get a run around tight MV – and she needs time room and time to wind up. Looked a certainty at Flem last start, but lost much hair as the jockey got trapped out wide and went forward on her against her normal racing pattern. Ridden quietly and chance to finish off today – which should be the racing pattern she should be the one to beat. Should be plenty of value in the quinella – this race has come up very strong this year and big field. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more RUNNING DOUBLE : Races 5,6 : 2,7,9,14,19 / 10, 11 x 50 cents = $5 Again just loving the value about our two top picks in the main race, so take a running double going in and if our roughie gets up will pay nicely indeed. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $10 NET : $-40

The Tips: Race 1: 5-LUCKY THUNDER, 4-BUFFETT, 1-CHILLED Race 2: EARLY 2YOS. SIT THEM OUT Race 3: 2-DANDAAD, 10-REPUTABLE, 12-COUNT THE DIAMONDS Race 4: 5-BORN PRINCESS, 8-TULLY DREAMER, 7-OVERTAKE Race 5: 2-SUNBURNT LAND (running?), 7-COUNT TO ZERO, 14-ZYZXX, 9-LET LOUSHE Race 6: 10-CATS WHISKER, 11-SPARKS FLY, 6-DAN BARONESS Race 7: 7-DANE JULIA, 4-AUTUMN JEUNEY, 14-SURFSIDE CHRISTMAS Race 8: 10-VIGOR, 2-NEWGRANGE, 16-TAGUS

RACE 1: RESULTS

Tips: 5-LUCKY THUNDER 2nd W=$3.70 4-BUFFETT 1-CHILLED

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 2-DANDAAD 10-REPUTABLE 1st W=$5.30 12-COUNT THE DIAMONDS

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 5-BORN PRINCESS 8-TULLY DREAMER 7-OVERTAKE

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 7-COUNT TO ZERO 14-ZYZXX 9-LET LOUSHE

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 10-CATS WHISKER 2nd W=$9.30 11-SPARKS FLY 6-DAN BARONESS

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 7-DANE JULIA SCR 4-AUTUMN JEUNEY 14-SURFSIDE CHRISTMAS

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 10-VIGOR 1st W=$5.20 2-NEWGRANGE 16-TAGUS

RACE 6: THOUSAND GUINEAS 1600M GROUP 1 3YO F

Tips: 10-CATS WHISKER 2nd W=$9.30 11-SPARKS FLY 6-DAN BARONESS

Others: 8, 3, 5 Pace: GENUINE Leaders : 4-GLOWLAMP , 7-LOVE AND KISSES, 9-KIMILLSY , 16-QUEEN OF THE FALLS Handy : 2-GALLICA, 6-DAN BARONESS , 8-ROMNEYA, 10-CATS WHISKER, 15-APENNINE Back : 1-PORTILLO, 3-TAAMEER ,5-OVAL AFFAIR, 11-SPARKS FLY, 12-FLY HIGHER , 13-ARMS WIDE OPEN , 14-TREMOLO, Chances: 3-TAAMEER was ridden back because of wide barrier last start and it worked a treat – waited and pounced and was going away with it nicely on the line. 5 wins from 7 starts so she knows how to win. Led throughout to win on leader’s track 1st up, then disappointing 2nd up, but they did go hard on speed that day. Drawn out again today, so likely they will drop her back and have her finishing on – which is what you want in this race. Guess the question mark is if she will run out a strong 1600M – last start was the test and she passed with flying colours, but probably still a little doubt with the extra journey. In winning form, runner on so have to respect. Chance. 5-OVAL AFFAIR has been running on nicely last couple of runs without really threatening to get into the finish. But looks like one that is going to be suited as the distances increase, and should be suited by the run on pattern that is normally the go on Thousand Guineas day. Fitter for the 3 runs in too, and should just about be nearing peak fitness – she should have the most improvement out of those from the Edward Manifold. Last 2 races have both been leader dominated and she has run on too late – think this race will be more run to suit today. Query is if she is running on - but not really challenging, but going to take the punt and happy to back her at the odds on offer. Best rough chance 6-DAN BARONESS has been racing very well, held up for runs 1st up and finished on well when clear. 2nd up they went quickly, she got the perfect cover and come out and went over them with ease when asked to produce. Raced into it out wide like she was home and hosed at Flem, but maybe she hit the lead too soon, or just failed to see out the trip cause the (3) followed her through and finished all over her. Drawn inside, she needs to get the sit and the split to come at the right time – but she seems to be pretty good at sitting just behind the speed. She might have to make her run to the inside though which is not desirable. Form is hard to fault, so have to consider – she really did loom up like a sure thing last start so willing to give her another chance. Chance. 8-ROMNEYA is an above average filly who has been going along really well this spring without much luck. Fought on well at Flem 2nd up against the males, got shuffled far too far back at Caulfield and came with a withering run – picking up over 6 lengths in the last 200M and should have won easily. Trainer then warned everyone that she was recovering from a respiratory infection before Flem run – pity we missed that bit of news and had a bet on her already. Run was OK, she was trapped wide and finished home OK without really challenging. Drawn barrier 1 and she can race forward, so guess they will ride her more aggressively today, seeing she has dropped back last two. She should have recovered from the sniffles now too. Bit uncertain though, on her Caulfield run you would be backing her with extreme confidence in this, but even allowing for the setback she was clearly beaten home by 3 of these last start. Barrier 1 is a worry too – they just about always win this race out wide. On her best suspect she is better than all of these, so she goes in as a chance, just not sure want to punt on her today. Chance with reservations – maybe see if the money comes? Think she is probably the best filly in this field. 4th W=$5.10 10-CATS WHISKER put in a solid performance in the Edward Manifold and that is the form we want going into this. Fitter for the 3 runs in, and should derive a lot of improvement as she was stepping up from 1200M to 1600M last start. Stable and jockey are firing and she has drawn a nice barrier to sit behind these and pull out when required. Like that she stuck to her task last start after the other one had grabbed a winning break. Definite chance. 2nd W=$9.30 11-SPARKS FLY worked home nicely in the Edward Manifold along the inside, and had to shift for runs a few times. Solid effort. Fitter for 3 runs in and proven over the 1600M is a big plus. Drawn out, strong finisher, Edward Manifold place getter is all the boxes you want to tick for this race so represents a very strong chance. Go well. Place: 1-PORTILLO is a Sydney visitor who is sorely going to be missing her racing pal SAMANTHA MISS – she has been beaten by her at all 5 starts this time in. Maybe they want to put out a lure in the orange colours for her to chase ? Represents the new form line, and that’s what we need to line up. Syd form really didn’t hold up in the Caulfield Guineas, and do have doubts over the strength of Sydney racing at the moment – small fields all the time. Drawn out, will drop back and has been finishing on well, and we do want to be on finishers in this race and she will probably get to the right part of the track. Did go past the others from that race pretty easily last start, so she is the only Syd horse we can consider here. Guess wait and see if the Sydney money comes, usually prefer to take the risk and see how they go. Will be thereabouts – tending towards place. 2-GALLICA has been stepping up from challenge to challenge in great fashion. Coming through country maidens, to show case races, to the Edward Manifold. Strong on pace win in that race. Likely to go forward again here – and we do prefer to avoid the on pacers in this race. Track was probably just favouring on pacers last start too. She sat just off the speed, pinched a break midway down the straight and they couldn’t run her down. Won 3 in a row, so form is faultless and could keep going on with it. Just suspect the two who finished just behind her at Flem are going to run past her today. So obviously a chance on form, but probably going to be backing others. Prefer place1st W=$4.30 12-FLY HIGHER has drawn the outside barrier and will probably drop well back. Nice run here 2nd up when went very wide and early and stuck on really well, which made her a nice bet the start after at MV, when she pretty much did the same thing – but won. Was a pretty tough effort. Stable must have been impressed as well as they sent her into the big league start after that – up against the boys. Thought her run that night was pretty disappointing – she was bustled forward early though against her normal racing pattern as it was a leader’s track. Better suited drawn out, back to fillies class and allowed to drop out and run on. Must be some rough chance, just starting to wonder about the quality of those she beat the start before, so rough chance only. Just watch she doesn’t get out to silly odds though as she might slip into this field largely unnoticed. 14-TREMOLO is coming along OK in her 1st preparation, so obviously still learning what it is all about. Winner at big odds at 1st run (which suggests stable didn’t have any confidence), then made OK ground at Flem in fairly strong standard race coming from last. Dropped out to clear last in Edward Manifold then cut corner and was finishing on OK. She looks like she is still learning what it is all about, and will probably improve sharply with distance and race experience. Think she probably drops out again and gives these too much of a head start, but she is the First Four special – the one you want to put at silly odds cause it might run home for 4th and blow out the dividend. Sacking: 4-GLOWLAMP is another Sydney sider and life member of the “I’ve been beaten by SAMANTHA MISS 5 starts in a row” fan club. Been thereabouts, racing on pace and likely to go forward again here from nice barrier and probably will stick on for along way. The (1) has beaten her home though last 4 starts so going into a tougher field again pretty sure her form isn’t good enough for this – especially not as she is an on pacer and we want runners on here. No 3rd W=$17.00 7-LOVE AND KISSES is a Syd on pacer who has been going along OK – being beaten by SAMANTHA MISS every start, but managing to fill the placings. Got bored with that and switched to the boys races last start and only a fair effort – she did start short too. Sydney 3YO male form really didn’t stack up on Sat in the Caulfield Guineas. She is going to race handy here again, best recent runs have been on wet tracks and shorter distances which might be here thing. Happy to let her run here. 9-KIMILLSY is yet another Syd on pacer who has been beaten by SAMANTHA MISS last 4 starts – are they cloning them up there ? She has stuck on and been thereabouts each run. Drawn inside and probably leads on the fence here. Yet to finish further back than 4th in 5 runs so obviously has ability. The (1) did go past her easily last start though. Again – being bloody minded here, but year after year you want to be on the runners on in this race, so leave her out. 13-ARMS WIDE OPEN looks to have a task here – coming into a tough competitive race over 1600M coming off a 6 week freshen up. Only the 2 runs in – run at Flem wasn’t too bad actually. Just think she would have to be at her best to win this, and unlikely to be – though suspect she will probably run on OK here. 15-APENNINE is fitter for the 3 runs in. Didn’t have any luck at all down the straight first up, then OK effort when sat behind speed here 2 starts back and wasn’t far off them. Raced handy and didn’t show much at Flem against most of these. Drawn wide and does like to go forward, so probably going to be caught wide. Think these have her well covered. No 16-QUEEN OF THE FALLS hasn’t really produced when asked to race against the higher classes last two. Raced on pace last start and dropped out quickly to finish well back. Well and truly covered by many of these last two runs so hard to see her being competitive today. Probably does go forward though and will put some pace into the race. Summary: Usually a race you can bet with some confidence in, these 3YO fillies have all been running against each other, so line them up on form, and weights, and fitness and those likely to improve over the 1600M and back your judgement. Have a big post it note in our race guide that says “Stick to the strongest finisher from the Edward Manifold in this race”. Definitely want to be on something finishing hard down the middle of the track as that is the normal racing pattern on this day and especially in this race. Really comes down to 3 form lines – the Sydney form, the Edward Manifold form and the Flem 1400M form from Sun 28/09 – pretty much every runner here comes through those 3 races. Bit sceptical of the Sydney form, especially after it did not hold up on Saturday, and most of those are on pacers so easy to rule out. How strong is the form from the Flem 1400M race is the question? The Edward Manifold is the proven lead up race going into this, so you can’t go wrong backing those coming through there. 7 out of the last 10 winners of this race have come through the Edward Manifold, Pace should be genuine here – four possible on pacers, sure they will set a decent, but not frantic speed - 4-GLOWLAMP , 7-LOVE AND KISSES, 9-KIMILLSY , 16-QUEEN OF THE FALLS . Just want something that will hook out to the middle of the track and finish on and 10-CATS WHISKER is making great appeal, stable going for the Guineas double, not beaten far in the Edward Manifold when stepping up sharply in distance and suspect lot of improvement to come from that run. 11-SPARKS FLY the main danger from that race and should be finishing on well again. Think these two appeal as good value bets in what seems a pretty open race this year. Third pick ? Not sure – let’s go 6-DAN BARONESS, but not much between her and 3-TAAMEER and question mark on both of them is the 1600M. 5-OVAL AFFAIR by far the best roughie though and will be running on strongly. Keen to bet with some value on the top two picks. One to risk: 2-GALLICA 1st W=$4.30 Roughie: 5-OVAL AFFAIR RESULTS : Track actually plays fair, probably even favours those racing on pace, which is unusual for Thousand Guineas Day. Unfortunately, we suffered a temporary brain freeze when doing this race - why on earth we declared 2-GALLICA couldn't win we have no idea. Woke up the day after sending out the form guide and hoped it was all a bad dream. Apologies. These 3YO fillies just keep winning often, and just keep backing them - same distance, same weights, same result. Edward Manifold form just about always the form for this race and year after year there is money to be made - same quinella - still pays $15. Still very very doubtful over the strength of the Sydney form - keen to take on SAMANTHA MISS when she comes to Melbourne.

Change the way you bet forever - back a horse, lay a horse and get better odds. Join BETFAIR and get a $50 FREE BET on SIGN UP