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| CAULFIELD : THOUSAND GUINEAS - 14th Oct 2009 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SHOCKING - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Major cold snap hitting Melbourne this week so start looking towards wet trackers for the Caulfield Cup on Saturday and start groaning over trying to have a punt on this program, on a wet track, with big fields of the B and C graders. The rain hasn’t come yet, so track is still rated good, but we are doing the form for a genuine dead to slow track. Rail stays TRUE which is where it was on Saturday when the track probably did favour on pacers. Most of the winners either led, or come through close to the rails, it was very hard for horses to make ground more than 2-3 horses out. Invariably on this program the track starts to wear after lots of traffic on two days, so expect runners on to be favoured today. Looks like we are going to get a decent amount of rain, so expect the inside to chop up and they will be coming down the middle of the track by the feature race. Later in the day avoid those drawn inside and look at those with outside barriers coming out wide in the straight. Absolute horrendous program to have a bet, so best advice is maybe just wide running doubles for some fun. This program really needs a revamp. It sucks big time. Almost makes you want to go to work instead. RESULTS : When we drove past Caulfield on Tuesday night the gutters were flooded in a torrential downpour - yet the track comes up GOOD(3) and the rain stays away for the day. Which means all the hours madly studying wet track form count for nothing. Suprisingly the track continues to favour on pacers, though there wasn't much speed in some races, but nothing wins coming out wide and most of the winners lead or sit right on the speed. Hence our tips go belly up as was expecting a different racing pattern. BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 6-SILENT SURROUND $7.50 EW Really like the run of this one last start, was flying home on a track that was favouring on pacers, and often strong finishers win the feature race, and runners from the Manifold. Tricky ride though – drawn barrier 1 and probably the winners will be coming down the middle of the track.. RESULTS : Does nothing. QUINELLA : Race 7: 9-RUNNING RIOT (SCR) # 1,3,7,8,16 x $3 = $15 1st 7-LADY LYNETTE W=$5.50 $15 BACK FOR SCRATCHING. This one is pretty consistent and has been going along OK. Winner just got a break on her last start at MV when she had to carry weight and looks nicely in down in the weights here. Not beaten far in Group 2 race before that and should sit jut behind speed here and put herself into the finish. Value is going to be in the quinella in a big field and she should be around the finish somewhere. RESULTS : SCR on the way to the barrier, suspect we would've gone close to a collect here. RUNNING DOUBLE : Race 4,5 : 6,8,11,12(scr),13 / 4,7,12 (scr) x 50 cents = $7.50 $3.50 BACK FOR SCRATCHING Think the best plan on a tough day is just to take wide running doubles and hope for a result. Here is one we prepared earlier. Race 5: 4-ORBIT EXPRESS couldn’t get a clear run at them last start and goes pretty well when right. RESULTS : Great work - don't get a winner in either leg. BEST ROUGH : Race 8 : 19-PENTO DIABLO (emerg) $3 WIN, $4.50 PLACE 2nd W=$17.60, P=$5.50 = 5.50 x 4.5 = $24.75 Most of these in the last race of out of form or going nowhere fast. This one has only had the 10 starts and has been going along OK, chased hard with big weight in much weaker race last start. Runners on will probably be suited later in the day. Think he might do something – just have to hope he makes the field. RESULTS : Almost finished the day with a big bang ! Our roughie of the day puts in a sizzling last 100M and comes with a flying burst and looked like he had got there - just missed on the line, another metre and a nice collect beckoned. Darn it. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more Race 6 : Quinella : 2,3,5,6,7 x 50 cents = $5 Let’s be a little cheeky and take a box quinella in the main race – and leave out the short priced boom filly. (hey it’s only $5). RESULTS : Short priced boom filly wins and bye bye to the $5. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $43.75 NET : -$6.75 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 3-DEFINITELY READY, 4-TAN TAT BRAV, 7-ILLUSIONARY Race 2: EARLY 2YO. PRETEND YOU ARE DOING SOME WORK. Race 3: 1-HANKS, 2-SPACECRAFT, 6-ZA BULLET Race 4: 8-SOUND OF NATURE, 11-UNAPRED, 6-EQUABLE Race 5: 4-ORBIT EXPRESS, 12-GOGOCANNY, 7-BARWON EXPRESS Race 6: 6-SILENT SURROUND, 7-JOLIE BRISE, 4-IRISH LIGHTS Race 7: 9-RUNNING RIOT, 3-DANE JULIA, 7-LADY LYNETTE Race 8: 16-O’TOBEFAMOUS, 19-PENTO DIABLO (emerg), 4-GEORGIA’S BOY, 8-TIMETABLE |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-DEFINITELY READY 1st W=$1.50 *** WOO HOO *** 4-TAN TAT BRAV SCR 7-ILLUSIONARY |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-HANKS 2-SPACECRAFT 1st W=$4.20 6-ZA BULLET |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SOUND OF NATURE 2nd W=$6.10 11-UNAPRED 6-EQUABLE |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-ORBIT EXPRESS 12-GOGOCANNY SCR 7-BARWON EXPRESS |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-SILENT SURROUND 7-JOLIE BRISE 4-IRISH LIGHTS 1st W=$3.10 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-RUNNING RIOT SCR 3-DANE JULIA 7-LADY LYNETTE 1st W=$5.50 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 16-O’TOBEFAMOUS 19-PENTO DIABLO 2nd W=$17.60, P=$5.50 *** best roughie of day *** 4-GEORGIA’S BOY |
| RACE 6: THOUSAND GUINEAS 1600M GROUP 1 3YOF |
| Tips: 6-SILENT SURROUND 7-JOLIE BRISE 4-IRISH LIGHTS 1st W=$3.10 |
| Others: 5,2,3 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 5-SISTER MADLY, 7-JOLIE BRISE Handy : 1-MELITO, 9-FOMALITE (wide), 10-MONT FLEURI, 13-JOHANSKI Back : 2-MAJESTIC MUSIC, 3-MY EMOTION, 4-IRISH LIGHTS, 6-SILENT SURROUND, 8-MISS WITH ATTITUDE, 11-MUSIC IN THE PARK , 12-FAINT PERFUME, 14-LAMICHI Chances: 2-MAJESTIC MUSIC has had 2 starts for 2 wins over 1600M and that’s a real plus. Often when we get to the 1600M today some of the 3YOF form starts to turn around, so running out a strong 1600M is a big bonus. Got dream run through on rails at Flem to come from last, after missing the start, but the best going was on the inside. Many of her rivals had more difficult runs and it was a fairly bunched finish. Win in Adel start before was quite impressive dashed away from decent quality field. Unknown on wet ground. Strong finisher which is what you often want in this race. Trick is here trying to line up the form from the Manifold, really wasn’t much between them and although she won she also probably got the best run. Chance. 3-MY EMOTION is very lightly raced having had only the 3 starts. Won 1st up at MV swooping over the top of them in a fast run race set up for backmarkers, then still finished on really well here 2nd up coming from well back out wide. Had to carry a whopping 59kgs that day on a very wet track in very tough windy conditions. Meets the winner of that race, the (7) a whopping 6kgs better for only a 2L margin – that’s a huge turn around. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in and should have more improvement to come. Question mark is hasn’t come through any of the traditional lead ups, Flight, Manifold or Tranquil Star. Drawn wide, strong finisher going to be suited if they are winning coming on. 3rd up and up 200M is the concern, just prefer them to have had the 1600M run going into this race, but does seem well drawn, well in at the weights and is untapped. Chance. 4-IRISH LIGHTS is the boom 3YO filly at the moment and could be one on the way up. Slaughtered a very smart one 1st up at Flem when she come from well back and gobbled them up with ease. Then won the Thousand Guineas Prelude when well supported, and she beat home many she is running against today that day. She has had a full 4 weeks off since then, and only had the 2 runs this time in – so is stepping up another 200M today. We actually have a few concerns about her despite the huge boom on her. Winner of this race normally comes through the Manifold, she has only had the 2 runs in, had 4 weeks off. Either way would’ve really liked to see her have another run leading into this. Unknown on wet ground. She is well drawn and should get to the right part of the track. Just wonder, 3rd up, up 200M, only had a 1100M/1400M preparation , 4 weeks off, most of these have had a 1600M run, might be a solid 1600M on a wet track, she is going to start short. Might have the class to over come all this of course, will be in the finish but probably prefer to back others at value. 1st W=$3.10 5-SISTER MADLY is in her 1st preparation and yet to miss the place in 4 starts. Sydney visitor will lead or sit handy from inside barrier. Seemed to handle wet OK last start which is going to be a huge plus if the rain keeps coming. Had the 1600M run is a big plus. Think she appeals as the best of the interstate visitors. Her chances are really going to be dictated by how the track is racing – if the inside is chopping up and they are swooping wide then she probably has little chance, if they are stick on OK then she looks like she will be in the finish. Watch the earlier races and see how highly to rate her. Chance. 6-SILENT SURROUND has been racing with not much luck this time in. Blocked for runs at back of field at Flem 3 starts back and again at Caulf 2 starts ago. Then was really storming home out wide last start in the Manifold – and that’s a really good sign – often the strongest finisher from that race wins this race. That was on a track that was strongly favouring on pacers too. Drawn barrier 1 is a negative as she is going to have to drop out and come around them. Has a 1600M slow track win to her name so looks like she handles the wet OK. Really quite liked the last run, she is going to be nice odds today and think she is a definite chance. Go well. 7-JOLIE BRISE has hit a purple patch of form and stable has a good record with fillies. Now won last 3 in a row, all on wet tracks which she seems to love and stand out wet tracker in this race if the rain continues to come. Last start she was trapped 3 wide most of the way, the (3) and the (11) loomed up like they were going to run her down last start and she was running away from them again on the line. Wins have been really impressive too- she has been extending away from them and she looks like the more distance will suit. Tough wet tracker on pacer can lead here if they like and roll them along and that’s a dangerous combination. Coming through non traditional lead ups is the only query, but has had the 4 runs in and ready for the 1600M. Main concern is won with light weight last start because of 3kgs apprentice so not well weighted into this, but apart from that by far the best rough chance in this. Go well. 4th W=$11.90 Place: 1-MELITO has been going along nicely in Sydney. Been thereabouts at each of her 4 runs this time in. Winner pinched a break on her 2 starts back and then reportedly wasn’t suited by the wet track last start. Only problem looks like we are going to get a wet track again here. Track was deteriorating rapidly last start at Sydney, so not quite sure we are going to see a track that bad here today? Drawn a good barrier, can sit handy on the speed and will make her own luck. Winning chance on dry track, probably only a place chance on a wet track. Watch the market on the Sydney visitors.2nd W=$4.90 8-MISS WITH ATTITUDE took on the boys last start on a slow track and went OK and that form held up in the Caulfield Guineas. Based on that probably handles the slow OK. Has already had the 6 runs this time in which is a lot and suspect the others here have more improvement to come. Main concern is was well held by the (2) 2 starts ago in Adel, although she did drop far too far out of her ground there and give them too much of a head start and still ran on very well. Probably just prefer the stable mate at this stage though. Place. 14-LAMICHI is 2nd up and up 200M into this race. 1st up run was actually pretty good, she was finishing on well. Maiden. Will drop back and run on and suspect she might run on OK and be one to follow later in the spring. Throw in for rough place chance and the value one for the big trifectas and first fours. Sacking: 9-FOMALITE took up the running last start in the Manifold and stuck on very well in a bunched finish. Have to say the track was favouring on pacers that day though. Stuck on well here start before that behind the (4). Seems to go pretty well on wet tracks. Drawn out a little and is probably going to get caught a little wide going forward here. Just thought she had every chance last start, she will probably be in this for a long way today, and probably won’t be far off the finish, but suspect she will find one or two better. Passing. 10-MONT FLEURI stated utterly ridiculous odds last start – drifted out to $3 favourite with the bookies, but was a laughable $2.40 on the tote. She was even money about 10 mins before they jumped. Based on what ? Case of everyone landing on the same obvious choice from a good stable meaning she started horrendous value. She was seriously disappointing there – form guide shows she was only beaten 1.3L, but she had every chance, got perfect run, just ground away, she finally started to pick it up on the line, but several came from behind her and went past her. Start before that here wasn’t bad, she was just starting to get warm at the end of race. Happy to take her on in this cause though last start was very disappointing. No 11-MUSIC IN THE PARK has only had the 2 runs in, so is up another 200M into this race. Did nothing 1st up – but had no support either, made good ground here 2nd up, but that was late in the day on a rain affected track and the runners on were winning. Should still be improvement coming though. Has to meet both of those who beat her home last start, and is very poorly weighted against the (3), Drawn wide, will drop back, probably not an issue if they are running on out wide. Main concern is only win was carrying 51kgs in a field a 5 !. Happy to leave out. 12-FAINT PERFUME is being set a pretty decent task here, 2nd up and up 400M into this race. Wet track winner who is probably being set for further and in smart stable but not today. 3rd W=$34.40 13-JOHANSKI is coming through Sandown form which probably isn’t good enough for this. Was carrying weight last start and the one who beat her home went pretty well in the Manifold so the form lines probably stands up OK. Well held by the (7) start before that. Outclassed here. Summary: Do quite like betting in this race cause think there is often value about fillies on the improve who switch on today once they get to the 1600M. Usually the track is chopping up or wearing out by this race, so often you want something running on. And more often than not – well just about ALWAYS, the winner comes out of the Edward Manifold. 8 out of the last 11 winners have come through the Manifold, 1 through the Flight and 2 through the Tranquil Star (now called the Thousand Guineas Prelude). Even more interestingly every winner except MACEDON LADY in 2002 (who we didn’t back for this very reason – and she hurt us), has had at least 3 runs in to get them ready for the mile today. And today we are faced with a short priced favourite who hasn’t raced in the Manifold and has had only 2 runs in? Most interesting. Pace here should be even only, 5-SISTER MADLY or 7-JOLIE BRISE can roll to the lead, probably 9-FOMALITE (wide), 10-MONT FLEURI, 13-JOHANSKI sitting behind them. 7-JOLIE BRISE might be hard to run down rolling on pace if we get a wet track. We are going around the favourite a little here – might be a class above these and win regardless, but liking the value about the rest of the field. Really liked the run of 6-SILENT SURROUND, who will probably drop out and come flying home – just think she has to get to the middle of the track from inside barrier which could be tricky. This race so often won by runners on and Edward Manifold runners. 7-JOLIE BRISE did carry a light weight last start, but was a tough wet track win and she will stick on in this. 4-IRISH LIGHTS obviously the one to beat. Respect 5-SISTER MADLY especially if the runners on aren’t winning and best rough chance is 3-MY EMOTION who is going very well and appears value in this field. One to risk: 10-MONT FLEURI Roughie: 3-MY EMOTION The Key: Winner normally comes through the Edward Manifold RESULTS : Class filly wins and have to say was surprised she drifted so badly and started at decent odds W=$3.10, was expecting she was going to start around $2.20. Think the drift was because on pacers were winning again and she normally settles back, but alert jockey and superior ride had her up and sitting 2nd on the speed. |
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