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CAULFIELD : THOUSAND GUINEAS - 13th Oct 2010
Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Track strongly favoured those racing on the speed on Saturday, but that is often the case on Caulfield Guineas Day. Usually what happens is that the rail stays in the same position (TRUE), and the track starts to wear on Thousand Guineas Day, and the racing pattern starts to favour those running on. Having said that just be aware that the last two years the on pacer pattern has actually remained for much of this meeting

The difference this year though will probably be the rain. Bit of rain around Tuesday night, more on Wednesday and even more heading towards the Caulfield Cup on the weekend. On a deteriorating track you would think the inside will start to cut up so look for those swooping later in the day. Often this is a tough program, Races 4 and 8 in particular look wide open but think you can bet with some confidence in Races 6,7.

RESULTS : Plenty of rain does come, track ends up SLOW(6) and early on it looks like it is going to favour those running out wide. Then most of the last 4-5 winners all stick close to the fence ! That's 3 years in a row now that the track has favoured on pacers Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas Day.

BEST BET : Race 6: 3-SISTINE ANGEL $15 WIN X
Often you can’t go wrong backing the winner of the Edward Manifold in the Thousand Guineas. This one has been absolutely flying this time in, and really should be a solid favourite in this field – but isn’t - so looks great value. Just double check the track is allowing them to run on OK – and if that’s the case have a decent bet on this one. Should win.
RESULTS : Looked a moral earlier on in the day when seemed the racing pattern would favour those running on out wide. Ridden more forward, and ridden 3 wide around the home turn instead of dropping back and flashing home. Think they were worried about a lack of speed and on pace bias, but jockey has totally slaughtered it.

BEST WIN : Race 7: 9-RIVER BYPASS $7 WIN (scr), 2-SMALL MINDS $3 WIN SCR $7
QUINELLA : Race 7: 9-RIVER BYPASS (scr) , 2-SMALL MINDS x $5 $5
QUINELLA : Race 7: 9-RIVER BYPASS (scr), 6-JOLIE BRISE x $5 $5
This one is racing well and was extremely unlucky last start at MV, was held up badly for runs around the turn, got clear and pinged to the line and only just missed in a photo. Has been racing at the provincials and most of these are city class – but aren’t going that well and she just seems to be in a purple patch of form. The one to watch out for at odds here is the 2-SMALL MINDS who has a fair bit of ability. Her 1st up run was really good, then bombed out next 2 runs. Had a freshen and she actually ran on very well last start at Flem, extremely wide from an outside barrier. Suspect she is about to regain her form and looks the main danger so have saver bet on her as well.

BEST ROUGH : Race 3: 8-SPURCIFIC $2.50 EW 1st W=$12.50, P=$3.50 = $16 x 2.5 = $40
Still a maiden, but placed 5 from 7 and 3 from 3 over the 1000M. Failed in a maiden over the longer 1400M trip last start, but you just get the feeling the 1000M is probably her go. Handles it wet, so rain would be OK, just needs them to be running on OK. Went OK in good quality races prior to last start maiden placing.
RESULTS: Gotta love it when the rain comes, they are winning out wide, the favourite is a query on wet ground and you are on a 10-1 chance. Yummo !

BEST ROUGH : Race 4: 15-SEA GALLEON 2.50 EW 2nd W=$11.00, P=$3.60 = 3.60 x 2.5 = $9
Showed some ability as a staying 3YO and often didn’t have much luck. Then again just as often got too far back and ran on too late !. Fitter for the 3 runs in, drawn an outside barrier can drop back and come down the middle of the track which is likely to be the racing pattern. Blinkers 1st time, out to the 2000M today just get the feeling is about do something.
RESULTS : Add blinkers and suddenly a drop out and run on horse is striding to the lead and running them along. Kicked in the straight and actually looked the winner, just run down by a import having it's 1st Australian run.

LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4 : 2-RUNDLE at around $2.90 5th W=$4.40
The Williams runners have ran into some form last couple of weeks, but their lightly raced horses so often start under the odds and are appeal to those looking to lay short priced favourites. At Sandown 22/09/2010 we had RUNDLE beaten 4th W=$1.80 and MODULE 4th W=$1.80. This one was very one paced last start, showed a lot of staying ability as a 3YO, but just looks like he wants a big track and lots of distance. Plus lumped at the top of the weights here and plenty down the bottom are on the up and going OK. Lay away.
RESULTS : Never looks like and just plods away. Easy lay.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
FLEXI QUAD : Races 5,6,7,8 : 4,5,10,12 / 3,11 / 2,9(scr) / 10,15,16 x $5 = 10.41% 1st 10-FASTER SON W=$4.30 / 3rd 11-BRAZILIAN PULSE W=$5.00 / - / 1st 16-PREVENTABLE W=$3.10
Think it is worthwhile a crack at the quaddie today. Take the main chances in the 1st leg, but add in those down the bottom of the weights (11),(13) if you are spending more. Take the first two home in the Edward Manifold 3-SISTINE ANGEL, 11-BRAZILIAN PULSE and you should be right in the main race. We have narrowed it down to two chances 9-RIVER BYPASS, 2-SMALL MINDS in the 3rd leg and both are OK odds, so that will put some value in. Last leg is wide open, so take the (10),(15),(16) and hope that’s enough – else load up with as many runners as you can afford.
RESULTS : Not too far off but bomb out in the middle legs

SPENT : $50
RETURN : $66
RETURN :$ +16

The Tips:

Race 1: 6-DOMESKY, 7-WHITE UNIVERSE, 8-CRAWFISH
Race 2: EARLY 2YO. PRETEND YOU ARE WORKING
Race 3: 7-CRISTALLO, 3-CURTANA, 8-SPURCIFIC
Race 4: 15-SEA GALLEON, 14-WINDARRA PLACE, 9-KING OF MOUNTAINS
Race 5: 10-FASTER SON, 4-AHDASHIM, 12-UXORIOUS
Race 6: 3-SISTINE ANGEL, 11-BRAZILIAN PULSE, 1-MORE STRAWBERRIES
Race 7: 9-RIVER BYPASS, 2-SMALL MINDS, 6-JOLIE BRISE
Race 8: 16-PREVENTABLE, 10-DARK NOTE, 15-VIKING HERO



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
6-DOMESKY SCR
7-WHITE UNIVERSE
8-CRAWFISH 2nd W=$5.70

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
7-CRISTALLO 2nd W=$6.80
3-CURTANA
8-SPURCIFIC 1st W=$12.50 *** Best Rough of Day ***

Quinella : $53.90 *** nice value quinella in the selections ***

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
15-SEA GALLEON 2nd W=$11.00
14-WINDARRA PLACE
9-KING OF MOUNTAINS

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
10-FASTER SON 1st W=$4.30
4-AHDASHIM
12-UXORIOUS 3rd W=$2.90

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
3-SISTINE ANGEL
11-BRAZILIAN PULSE 3rd W=$5.00
1-MORE STRAWBERRIES

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
9-RIVER BYPASS SCR
2-SMALL MINDS
6-JOLIE BRISE

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
16-PREVENTABLE 1st W=$3.10
10-DARK NOTE
15-VIKING HERO 3rd W=$9.80




RACE 6: THOUSAND GUINEAS 1600M GROUP 1 3YO F
Tips:
3-SISTINE ANGEL
11-BRAZILIAN PULSE 3rd W=$5.00
1-MORE STRAWBERRIES

Others: 4, 7, 10

Pace: SLOW – BE CAREFUL
Leaders : 8-HEARTSAREFORLOVE
Handy : 1-MORE STRAWBERRIES, 9-ALITTLEBITOFMONICA, 10-PINKER PINKER, 11-BRAZILIAN PULSE
Back : 2-AMBERS WALTZ, 3-SISTINE ANGEL, 4-YOSEI, 5-RINGA RINGA ROSIE, 6-DIVORCES, 7-JESSE'S GIRL, 12-MELTED, 13-SUSSURO, 14-AIN'TNOFALLENSTAR, 15-MARAASEEM, 16-DIZLAGO, 17-PARTY HARD, 18-PLASTIC FANTASTIC

Chances:
1-MORE STRAWBERRIES is a Sydney 3YOF who shares part of her name and some of her father’s genes with the impressive stable mate MORE JOYOUS. Has been going along very well in Sydney, looked the winner last start in the Flight but one flew out of the pack and got her. The question every year with the Sydney 3YOs, and it’s the same with the colts and the fillies is how much they have left in their preparations by the time they come down here. She will handle it wet if the track deteriorates. Big plus with her is that she races on pace and has drawn a good barrier, so can make her own luck – and a lot of her rivals are drop back, run on types. Guess her chances really come down the racing pattern, if they continue to win on pace she is a strong chance. If they are swooping down the middle of the track (more likely) then probably pass on her. Chance.
3-SISTINE ANGEL has been absolutely flying this spring and we think she is rather under rated. 1st / 2nd / 1st in the lead up runs and you can’t do much better than that. She had no luck as a 2YO and always showed a heap of potential. 1st up win against the males was ultra impressive, 2nd up was stuck on rails and shoot through, but is probably better when gets to come down the middle of the track. Last win was super impressive, fair enough track was favouring those running on, but she has come from close to last and really like the way she chased down the (11) who had pinched a break. Can’t really go wrong backing the Edward Manifold winner in this race Placed 3 from 4 at Caulfield. Note that she meets the (6) 1.5 kgs better off for the last Caulfield meeting. She will drop out and run on – so she needs the track to be racing accordingly. Actually think if the track is favouring runners on she is just about a good thing. Astounded by the odds on offer – if she was trained by Bart, or Snowden or Moodie she would be a clear $3.50 favourite. Get on – she really should win and looks a great bet at the $5.50. One to beat.
4-YOSEI has been thereabouts in her races without really putting it together. Was an eye catcher 1st up when she scooted though along the rails, and actually thought she would go on with it from there. Ran on pretty well 2nd up against most of these – and does get a weight advantage today against the ones from the Tranquil. Nicked up to Sydney , but didn’t really do much. Should be fitter for the 3 runs in and probably worth forgetting last run and focussing on the 2 runs in Melbourne, both of which had some potential. She could easily turn it around and is a genuine chance. Chance. 1st W=$12.50
7-JESSE'S GIRL is showing a bit of potential and is coming through a different form line from the majority of these so is worth considering. Fitter for the 2 runs in, both have been good. Got perfect run behind speed at MV when her and the winner cut the corner, then ran on pretty well here on Sat weaving her way through the field and staying closest to the rails in the best ground. Bit unusual to have one backing up from Sat into Wed. Does step up to the 1600M here for the 1st time, but she is always running on so you would think she would see it out. Wouldn’t write her off entirely – she is the different form line so hard to line up. Rough.
11-BRAZILIAN PULSE has only had the 3 starts and seems to be on a rapidly improving upward spiral. Whooshed for home last start, looked the winner and took a pretty gritty performance by the (3) to run her down. That was only her 3rd run, you think she would have improvement still to come and will be fitter for the run over the 1600M. Dropped back from wide barrier last start, drawn out again today but no reason why they couldn’t go more forward – she might be sitting midfield and poised and the back markers might be giving her a bit of a head start and might struggle to run her down this time. Should handle it wet. Strong chance – Edward Manifold form is good form.3rd W=$5.00

Place:
10-PINKER PINKER has been showing a bit of potential and fitter for the 3 runs in. Won in a blanket finish down the straight 1st up, bit unlucky 2nd up when ran on OK, last start worked home well enough to keep under consideration. Wet track would be a plus and elevate if we get serious rain. She had drawn OK and probably doesn’t need to drop too far back – she might have a bit of a head start on some of her run on rivals. She just ground home OK last start – hard to see her beating the ones that finished in front of her. Solid place chance on a dry track, probably a rough upset chance on a wet track.
13-SUSSURO was rather disappointing last start, jockey has reported he didn’t think she liked the hard track. Win before that at MV was absolutely astounding – they were winning running on but she was still a couple of lengths off them 100M to go and absolutely launched to the line. Only 3 runs, trying 1600M for the 1st time, drawn an inside barrier and probably drops well back is going to make it all a bit tough. Blinkers 1st time a plus. If some rain comes and they are winning running on probably give her a rough chance, she worked home OK last start and obviously has heaps of ability based on the MV win. Rough only.
16-DIZLAGO is one we tipped last start and she dropped back and just worked home OK without being anything to get over excited about. Should be fitter for the 3 runs in, good run 2 starts back here when fighting out the finish till the last 50M – but form from that race really hasn’t held up. Comes across as more a staying type, she will probably grind home OK here. Query on wet track. Plus is she has drawn a good barrier and many of her main rivals haven’t, so she will probably plug home OK and run 3rd – 6th ish. Place. SCR
17-PARTY HARD (emerg) is lightly raced and showing some ability. Finished on very well last 2 starts and only beaten < 1L at Flem behind some of these and <3L at MV in a strong form race. Big step up in distance here to the 1600M, but the extra distance should suit the way she has been racing. Again drawn an outside barrier just makes the task that little bit rougher but worth throwing in for 3rd or 4th if you are going wide in your trifectas and first fours. Rough.

Sacking:
2-AMBERS WALTZ is another Sydney visitor who was safely held by the (1) in her last 2 runs up there. Normally races on the speed, but they decided to ride her back at Flem and she did make a little ground and find some trouble, so the run wasn’t totally hopeless. OK barrier here today so assume will probably race handy again. Just hard to see her improving enough to turn the table on many going around here who has beaten her home last 3 runs. Probably a query on wet ground. No 4th W=$56.90
5-RINGA RINGA ROSIE has come down from Brisbane with a bit of spruik on her, and has gone OK in her runs down here, but hasn’t quite put it all together. Strong finisher, drawn out, who will drop back and run on late down the middle of the track, so wants the track to be favouring runners on. Ridden more forward at Flem and poked through at the top of the straight along the inside, maybe not the best ground and maybe she hit the lead too early. Sure they will ride her cold again today. Prob go OK on wet. Hard to see her beating home the (3) and (11) from last start though who went past her pretty easily. Only a place chance at best, and only if they are running on OK.
6-DIVORCES finally broke through for a win here 2 starts back. Worth nothing though that she got a weight advantage from the (3) and (4) that day which she will not get here. Missed the start at Flem, and got held up for runs early in the straight, but had plenty of time to run on and do something and went backwards. Maybe something went amiss at the start and she didn’t put in after that? Will handle it wet. She was beaten by the (1) in Sydney, won here at Caulfield with a perfect run and weight advantage and got beaten by most of these last start. Even if there was an excuse for last run she has a history of running 4th,5th,etc and not winning. Happy to risk her today. Risking
8-HEARTSAREFORLOVE is a Sydney visitor who was safely held by the (1) last start. Form before that not too bad so surprised she started $51 last start. Likely query on wet ground. Was being beaten in easier races before that. Likely to go forward here but hard to see her being competitive. No.2nd W=$149.10
9-ALITTLEBITOFMONICA is another Sydney visitor coming through non standard form lines (it’s normally the Flight Stakes or nothing in this race). Fitter for the 2 runs in, both have been OK, but up 200M again today. Will race handy, best form appears to be on wet tracks. If the rain comes likely the best ground is going to be out wide – and she has drawn barrier 1, so hard to see her getting conditions to suit no matter what happens. No
12-MELTED is 3rd up into this and up 200M again, coming off a solid win at a Caulfield Sunday meeting. Generally it’s the Edward Manifold/ Flight or Tranquil Star for this race so history is against her. Darn history – where has history ever got us?. Should handle it wet. Drawn out and probably ends up dropping back here. Been thereabouts in most her runs so probably has some ability just a bit hard to get enthused against this lot. Passing .
14-AIN'TNOFALLENSTAR is making a giant leap in class here off a 0-68 race. 3rd up, up 300M, up in class, solid enough win last start, but drawn rank outside barrier and looks far too big an ask at this stage in her racing career. No
15-MARAASEEM took on the boys last start and was in the market, but didn’t show much. Going along nicely before that. Handles it wet. Another who has drawn badly (how many outside barriers are there in this race?). Not sure of the strength of the ones she had been beating at Sandown. Prefer to risk.
18-PLASTIC FANTASTIC (emerg) is 3rd up and up 200M. Maiden who is going along OK and loomed on speed last start. Will go forward and race handy if she makes the field – which his unlikely. Even more unlikely that she will win. No

Summary: Like the Caulfield Guineas/Caulfield Prelude on the weekend this is one of the strongest form lines in racing. Out of the last 10 years 7 winners have come through the Edward Manifold, 5 of these have run 1st or 2nd in that race. In fact 5 of the last 7 winners of this race have ran 1st or 2nd in the Manifold. You can pretty much throw away the form guide and just back the first two home from the Manifold.

There actually doesn’t seem to be much speed here, despite the big field. 8-HEARTSAREFORLOVE
and 1-MORE STRAWBERRIES probably go forward, , 9-ALITTLEBITOFMONICA, 10-PINKER PINKER likely to be sitting handy, but there doesn’t actually seem to be much pressure up front here – which is the only concern as we are keen on some backmarkers in this race.

Betting in this race really depends how much rain we get and how the track races. Normally on this day, especially if we get some rain, the track will favour those running on. However, it has continued to favour on pacers the last two years – and there isn’t much speed here. But we are assuming the rain will come, the track will cut up and if that’s the case very keen on 3-SISTINE ANGEL swooping home, her 3 runs this time in have been fantastic and she should actually be a clear cut favourite in this. 11-BRAZILIAN PULSE the main danger, on the improve and she will probably settle a bit closer to the front than the (3) so a lack of pace won’t bother her as much. 1-MORE STRAWBERRIES likely to get a pretty cosy on speed run here and is going to be hard to beat if the on pacers are sticking on. Fairly confident winner will come from these 3, if the runners on are winning launch on the 3-SISTINE ANGEL and save with a boxed quinella just in case.

One to risk: 6-DIVORCES 8th W=$12.70
Roughie: 7-JESSE'S GIRL, 17-PARTY HARD (emerg)

The Key: Edward Manifold form – just back 1st and 2nd out of that race.

RESULTS : 4-YOSEI gets a great ride from a good barrier and gap comes at the right time. Form was actually pretty good if you take out the Sydney run. 3-SISTINE ANGEL given no chance ridden wide and going for home early around the turn. On pace well drawn bolters fill the placings, just showing the track was favouring on pacers.


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