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For one week only, deposit $50 and get a $150 Free Bet.
The standard offer is deposit $50, get a $100 free bet, but this special offer
is valid for one week only and closes when they jump in the Caulfield Cup. |
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| CAULFIELD : THOUSAND GUINEAS - 12th Oct 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Few showers around heading into Weds, but they are only light and as shown by the rapid track improvements on the weekend you need a serious deluge to affect a track these days with the super duper drainage systems they have at most city race courses these days. Normally this track favours those running on down the middle on Thousand Guineas Day as the track starts to wear, but the last couple of years it has definitely favoured those racing on the speed. Once again at Caulfield last Saturday even though the rail remained TRUE the on pacers were advantaged and there is a pretty good chance that will continue today, especially for the first half of the program. They might be able to run on in the last couple of races, but pretty much every week this spring has favoured on pacers – so you can’t really go wrong regardless. Unfortunately with a short priced favourite in the main race there isn’t that much to bet on today. There are a couple of other short priced favourites going around, and not sure they are going to win so some value in those races. However, two to three pretty solid bets to have a bash at if you pick out the right races. RESULTS : Track races very evenly, in fact probably just favours those running on late 3-4 out. Quite a few of the short priced favourites go down - who on earth backs these Williams stable runners at $1.80 ?? The tips struggle and we have the first wipe out of the season in the Betting Portfolio. Frustrating day though with often having 2 out of 3 selections in the finish. BEST BET : Race 7: 1-LADY LYNETTE $15 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 7: 1-LADY LYNETTE, 2-KEEP THE PEACE x $5 3rd 2-KEEP THE PEACE W=$6.00 QUIENLLA : Race 7: 1-LADY LYNETTE , 10-HI BELLE x $3 1st 10-HI BELLE W=$8.80 Ultra tough, consistent, on pace and classy mare who you can back with confidence. Is giving weight to these but has been winning harder races. Only ever missed the place once over the 1600M in 10 starts, and when she draws a good barrier she just jumps and sits on the speed and put herself into the race so you know at least you will have every chance. Only won one from 7 at Caulfield, but most of those runs have been over 1200M and often from wide barriers. Won this race in 2009 and then 3rd last year, when wasn’t going quite as well. Last 2 runs have been excellent, beat a tougher field at Flem and slightly unlucky when held up for runs on the home turn in extremely strong form race at MV when did dash along the inside and look the winner at one stage in the straight. The $3.80 at the moment looks a luxury, if she was trained by Moody she would probably be closer to even money on that form. Back straight out, and take a quinella with the (2) who has been going along OK, is fitter for the 2 runs in and finally draws a barrier, and the very consistent (10). RESULTS : The ultra consistent 1-LADY LYNETTE puts in a dead set shocker. Perfect run back on the fence, but never looks likely. Which was a shame cause we sorted out the main dangers just fine with the winner and the third place getter. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 7-AMERICAN CREW $5 EW X Lots of non winners in this race, and there will be a short priced favourite in the (8), but tend to avoid the short priced Williams runners as often as possible. There is not much speed at all here, a lot of these drop back, the track is still likely to favour those racing on the speed and this one should go forward and get a pretty easy lead. Fitter for the 3 runs in, better for the run over the 1600M and led and really only grabbed in the last 20 M at so last start. Pretty confident here each way at around $9. RESULTS : Led and kicked on the home turn but stopped very quickly and did pull up with an injury. The $1.60 favourite from the Williams stable 8-EXCLUDED ran 3rd, we weren't interested in it at all and totally left it out of the selections. Hmmm.. Would have made a great Lay of the Day ? BEST ROUGH : Race 8: 1-ZEDI KNIGHT $4 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 8: 1-ZEDI KNIGHT # 6,8,11,13 x $2 X / 8-FACILE TIGRE 1st W=$4.30 The last race looks wide open and suspect the top weight here is going to drift nicely on the tote just because he is carrying a hefty 59kgs here against a big field. However, he is fitter for the 2 runs in, he jumped and ran and kicked here last start and should be much improved by the 1200M run. Dry track suits, he has race fitness and many of these do not, and there actually is very little speed despite the 15 horse field so think he can jump and run and lead again here and he is very difficult to run down when he does. Think this one is a bit under rated. Last 50M will be the test though with the weight, so take the quinella with some of the other chances which should still pay well in a big field. RESULTS : Up and running out wide on the home turn , but the first horse beaten. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4 : 9-COSMONAUT at around $3.00 1st W=$2.60 One of Bart’s who finally broke through for a soft maiden win 2 starts back at Ballarat at this 8th start. Ran in the classic 3YO races last spring but didn’t show that much. Has shown some form this time in, but last start was well backed at MV when led on a leader’s track and gave in pretty quickly. Probably didn’t handle the slow track that night, but just not convinced about how genuine this one is and note he was also entered for the Coogny on Saturday and they have gone the softer option – which we think is never a good sign. Prefer to let run at these sort of odds. RESULTS : Yet another Lay of the Day gets home, and this one got the perfect sit and never looked like being beaten. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 7 : TRIFECTA : 1-LADY LYNETTE / 2-KEEP THE PEACE / 4(scr),10,13,14,17 x 50 cents = $2.50 SCR 0.50 Race 7 : TRIFECTA : 1-LADY LYNETTE / 4(scr),10,13,14,17 / 2-KEEP THE PEACE x 50 cents = $2.50 SCR 0.50 X / 1st 10-HI BELLE W=$8.80 / 3rd 2-KEEP THE PEACE W=$6.00 This is one of the few races of the day worth betting on and the (1) really should win on form. The main danger is the (2) who should improve a lot today with a barrier and the 2 runs in. Should still be some value in the trifecta in a big field, so take the 1 to win, and rotate the (2) through the placings with some roughies, mainly looking at those well drawn who are going to race on the speed. The 4-APENNINE is the one we are mainly interested in here as a rough place chance, very consistent when in form and should be ready to do something now with the 2 runs in. RESULTS : Top pick never a chance so never warm SPENT : $50 RETURN : $1 NET : $-49 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 1-COLLAR, 6-SALTER, 3-FIRST COURSE Race 2: EARLY 2YO. PASSING Race 3: 4-THE COUNTERFEITER, 3-VATICAN, 6-SLYVAN POWER Race 4: 3-KEEP COOL, 8-RHYTHMIC KING, 7-LANGRIDGE STREET Race 5: 7-AMERICAN CREW, 11-ABSOLUTELYAWESOME, 10-NAVILLUS SUPERMAN Race 6: 8-ATLANTIC JEWEL, 1-MOSHEEN, 2-HALLOWELL BELLE Race 7: 1-LADY LYNETTE, 2-KEEP THE PEACE, 10-HI BELLE Race 8: 1-ZEDI KNIGHT, 13-ROCKING FORCE, 6-FACILE TIGRE |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-COLLAR 3rd W=$1.60 *** stupid odds *** 6-SALTER 3-FIRST COURSE 2nd W=$12.50 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-THE COUNTERFEITER 3-VATICAN 3rd W=$4.40 6-SLYVAN POWER 2nd W=$26.40 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-KEEP COOL 2nd W=$5.10 8-RHYTHMIC KING 7-LANGRIDGE STREET 3rd W=$8.00 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-AMERICAN CREW 11-ABSOLUTELYAWESOME 10-NAVILLUS SUPERMAN |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st W=$1.70 1-MOSHEEN 2nd W=$4.60 2-HALLOWELL BELLE Quinella : $3.40 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-LADY LYNETTE 2-KEEP THE PEACE 3rd W=$6.00 10-HI BELLE 1st W=$8.80 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-ZEDI KNIGHT 13-ROCKING FORCE 6-FACILE TIGRE 1st W=$4.30 |
| RACE 6: THOUSANDGUINEAS 1600M 3YO F |
| Tips: 8-ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st W=$1.70 1-MOSHEEN 2nd W=$4.60 2-HALLOWELL BELLE Quinella : $3.40 |
| Others: 6 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 4-CUTE EMILY, 6-CELEBRITY GIRL Handy : 1-MOSHEEN, 2-HALLOWELL BELLE, 9-KNEELING Back : 3-BLISS STREET, 5-DISPUTES, 7-MANHATTAN MAID, 10-CRUCIAL, 11-SHARNEE ROSE, 12-RAHVEEL Chances: 1-MOSHEEN is a very professional filly who improved rapidly when the blinkers went on at Flemington last start. To be honest she was probably the one we wanted to drop off out of the busy Tranquil Star finish at Caulfield, but she stepped up, sat on pace and dashed away from them in a very impressive performance last start. 1600M winner a big plus, as is going to be sitting handy on a track that is going to probably favour on pacers. Barrier 10 bit of a worry though as might get caught wide. Has a touch of class about her and capable of causing on upset here if she can get in from the barrier. Strong chance. 2nd W=$4.60 2-HALLOWELL BELLE has been extremely consistent all spring, so not sure how she ended up with the 4 little ducks -2222- next to her names (getting ready for Monday night bingo). At MV 2nd up she worked from an outside barrier to lead and although it was a leader’s track she was just run down by one that had a cosy run on the rails. Bumped into SEPOY 3rd up and was honest to the line, then had absolutely no luck when knocked over, blocked for runs, going left, right, backwards, upwards, sideways in a very hectic Tranquil Star. Should have won that race – and beat several going around here today. Went to Sydney and well supported last start but thrashed by one that would have to be pretty special based on that win. She is fit, consistent, has ability and again she can race on the speed which is a big plus. Barrier 9 might just mean she gets caught wide as well – wonder if they might burn to the lead with her today? It would be interesting if she won this race cause that would mean the one who beat her last start is out of this world. Never easy to switch between Sydney and Melbourne so last run is probably better than it looks. She has a solid chance here sitting on the speed, just wonder if the 1600M might be as far as she wants though. Chance. 4th W=$8.00 6-CELEBRITY GIRL had a boom on her for all of about 7 days until the stable mate arrived on the scene. Fame is so fleeting in the hectic equine world. Impressive win 1st up, then hit the front too early, wandered, gazed and drifted and cost herself a dead heat win on protest in the Tranquil Star. Every chance in the Manifold racing on speed where the (1) kicked away from her easily but she fought on OK. Probably still a little bit of improvement to come, drawn inside and will go forward. Slight query about how strong she will be at the end of 1600M and we were ready to drop off her today till we saw her barrier – 2 – she is going to get the run of the race here on the speed. If they are winning on speed she is probably a solid winning chance, if not probably prefer place. Rough. 8-ATLANTIC JEWEL has a massive boom on her and has been winning like a potential super star. Unbeaten 3 from 3, got heavily backed at MV when swooped on a track that was favouring runners on and went past the field in a canter for a soft win. Did the same last start here and will start a very short priced favourite here and deservedly so. However, have to say don’t think she is over the line in the slightest. Stepping up to 1600M for the 1st time, there are a few smart ones here who have had the run over the trip – namely the (1) and the (2). She has done a few little things wrong, last start when wanted to wander a bit when she hit the front, and she will be dropping back here in a race with probably not that much speed and on a track likely to favour those on speed. Did carry weight against a few of these last start and win easily. Jockey Rodd put in a dead set shocker of a ride on the short priced VALENTINE MISS on Saturday, and has to back up on short priced DECEMEBER DRAW in the Caulfield Cup so let’s hope he is on the ball this week. Her wins have been very soft and she looks to have a stack of untapped potential so she really should be able to over come any slow pace or track bias. Only slight concern here is her odds, taking on the (1) and the (2) for the 1st time, who are both very, very smart she just looks a little short to us – bearing in mind that she has not raced against them before. Obviously the one to beat. 1st W=$1.70 Place: 3-BLISS STREET is a WA visitor who has been going along nicely. Strong finish to dead heat then win on protest in the Tranquil Star, and then had every chance in the Manifold when was ridden more forward from an inside barrier. Probably drops back today which is more her racing pattern so her chances will largely depend if they are running on OK or not. She will be strong over the mile, just hard to see her turning around the 3L from last start against the (1). Place best – and only if they are running on OK. 4-CUTE EMILY has been taking her time this spring and is slowly running into form. Well held in the weaker 3YO races 2nd and 3rd up, but last start at MV against the males she did show a bit of kick and the winner had to pull out a bit to run her down. Guess it was a dynamite leaders track that night though, so that might have flattered the performance a little bit. Barrier 1 here, likely to lead again and strong chance the track will continue to favour on pacers. Hard to see her winning this, but definite one if you are trying to find some value in what looks a very skinny trifecta today. Place. Sacking: 5-DISPUTES at very least represents a new form line so is worth considering on that alone. Fitter for the 2 runs in, but up 200M again today against a few who are quite seasoned and prepared for the 1600M. Last start was her 1st win, likely to drop back here from outside barrier and prefer to let run against a few smart ones here. 7-MANHATTAN MAID has been only fair in the traditional lead up races. Struck a little bit of trouble here at Caulfield 2 starts back and then finished on OK out wide on a track that was favouring on pacers at Flem. Likely to drop back again and hard to see her improving enough to beat the 3-4 going around here who have easily beaten her home the last two starts. No. 9-KNEELING won 1st up at MV beating the (2), but did have a perfect smother back on the rails whilst that one did a lot of work. Was SCR in between runs, but did have a barrier trial, but then struggled badly here last start behind the (8) when jockey reported the 59kgs was too much for this little filly. Very firm track that day too. Draw well, will sit handy and box seat, but up in distance again, well held last start and not sure about her at the 1600M. Passing. 10-CRUCIAL has been going along nicely and strong finish to win 1st up at Ballarat. Sat handy from inside barrier here last start, but suspect this one is better ridden at the back of the field and probably drops well back from outside barrier here. Fought on OK last start so should be thereabouts but was well held by the (8) last start – even getting 2.5kgs off her so very hard to see things changing today. Maybe a rough place chance, but she looks a good type going on for the longer distances. Later. 11-SHARNEE ROSE is still a maiden but has been racing pretty well and every run has been identical – running on nicely, late, to fill a placing. Been easily held by the (8) her last 2 starts, even getting weight from her last start so hard to see her turning the tables today. She does look though the extra distance will suit her so the step up to 1600M today is a big plus, and she is one that will probably go on this spring over distance. Will drop back though and suspect the best she will do will run on late again for 4th or so. Passing. 3rd W=$23.50 12-RAHVEEL ran on OK at Flem, but was going along the rail which was the place to be that day. Safely held by three who finished ahead of her there who are also going around here and same weight terms so hard to see her improving to beat all three of them. 1600M winner in the country before that so at least you know she will run the trip, but likely to drop well back along the inside here and might need a bit of luck to get through the field. First four hope only. Summary: Normally this is a great betting race with plenty of value and you want to get on the strong 1600M filly finishing on strongly down the middle of the track. However, last couple of years the track has favoured on pacers on this day, and this year we are faced with a very short priced favourite who really should win if she keeps going the way she has been going. Pace here should be moderate only 4-CUTE EMILY looks the leader, 6-CELEBRITY GIRL to get a perfect sit behind the speed, and 2-HALLOWELL BELLE sitting just outside there. Don’t think there will be a huge amount of pressure up front, so don’t be surprised if one of these gives a kick early in the straight and looks the winner. The boom filly on the rise 8-ATLANTIC JEWEL, really looks the winner, as long as she doesn’t do anything wrong. Even if they are not running on that well you would think she would have the class to finish over the top of these. Only concern is she does look under the odds to us up against a few pretty well performed rivals. The 1-MOSHEEN was very impressive winner last start and will be up on the speed, so the favourite will be giving her a decent head start, and this one does have a lot of ability so don’t think it is over by any shot. Likewise 2-HALLOWELL BELLE who will lob on the speed and is going along really well. Suspect 6-CELEBRITY GIRL is going to get the run of the race and do something today. Actually bit unusual to have such a short priced favourite meeting the next 4 picks in the market for the first time – normally if there is a shortie they are meeting largely the same field. Guess that is our only concern, there is decent quality opposition today - and we don’t back short priced favourites anyway, so whilst the (8) probably wins, the $20 or so about the (2) and the (6) look more fun to us ! Just a play bet. One to risk: - Roughie: 6-CELEBRITY GIRL The Key: Is the track allowing them to run on OK ? RESULTS : Very solid tempo here and thought the favourite was in trouble half way when she was giving the (1) a good six lengths head start off a fast speed. But she rounded them up and won with ease - simply outstanding. Worth noting now that 1-MOSHEEN has spaced her rivals in the Manifold and the Thousand Guineas by a clear distance and with 8-ATLANTIC JEWEL not going on she looks a stand out for the up coming 3YO filly races. Solid run 11-SHARNEE ROSE who just looks like she needs distance. |
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