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For one week only, deposit $50 and get a $150 Free Bet.
The standard offer is deposit $50, get a $100 free bet, but this special offer is valid for one week only and closes when they jump in the Caulfield Cup.
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| CAULFIELD: THOUSAND GUINEAS - 17th Oct 2012 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Few showers around on Tues and Weds but clearing into Weds arvo. This track should stay around a genuine dead so every horse should have its chance. Rail remains in the TRUE position as it was here on Saturday for the Caulfield Guineas. Track raced quite fairly that day, the leaders stuck on well early, but it was notable that most of the winners came home hard in the last couple of races, which may have been due to increased speed and pressure up front in those races. Often what ever the racing pattern was on the Saturday will continue to the Wednesday, so with the track wearing from traffic there is a good chance you will want to be on those running on again today. However, has to be said there is not a huge amount of speed in some of these races. Most of these races have well supported $2.50 or so favourites in them and most of these are likely to go close to winning. Just not sure that all of them represent value though, so whilst we have put most of them into the tips, we have searched for some nice $10 each way shots to make life more interesting. RESULTS: Smallish fields and not much pressure in some races, but it does seem that the on pacers are favoured (yet again at Caulfield). They can run on into the finish, but the on pacers win all races. Tips struggle but most of the well supported favorites win. BEST BET: Race 5: 6-MORANT $10 WIN 4th W=$5.00 QUINELLA : Race 5: 6-MORANT, 8-PETMAN x $2.50 6-MORANT 4th W=$5.00, 8-PETMAN 2nd W=$5.10 QUINELLA : Race 5: 6-MORANT, 10-SPECTER x $2.50 6-MORANT 4th W=$5.00, 10-SPECTER 3rd W=$8.70 This one has been racing really well and we made it best rough chance last start when it flew home late to just miss. Just seems to have much better form than most going around in this race. Went around in a few unsuitable races at MV, tends to settle back and run on hard so needs the bigger track, speed on and a clear run at them. The jockey will need to be on top of his game here cause it has drawn barrier 1 and there isn’t much speed here, so they might need to ride him closer to the speed. Still on form should win, maybe just save on the quinellas with the two likely on pacers the (8) and the (10) as there isn’t much speed in this race. Should win on form. RESULTS: Gets the betting drifts badly - mainly because of the inside barrier being a drop back horse. And it all goes pretty much to script, held up for runs, couldn't get through. This one is becoming a money muncher though, probably best to wait till he gets to 1400M on a big track. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 5-MEMBERS JOY $5EW X QUINELLA Race 6: 5-MEMBERS JOY, 4-MAYBE DISCREET x $5 X Despite the big field keen to have a confident each way bet here. This one has been going along nicely and just really liked her finishing burst to only just miss last start in the Edward Manifold which is traditionally the best lead up guide to this race. Looks way over the odds to us. Quinella should pay well in a big even field and often you can’t go wrong taking the same quinella from Flemington into this race, and the (4) should stick on again on the speed. Really liking the $11 or so about our top pick here. RESULTS: The Edward Manifold form holds up, as it so often does, but of course it is the third horse 8-COMMANDING JEWEL that wins, not the two we picked ! Forget 5-MEMBERS JOY went around dropped out quickly obviously something amiss. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 12-MODEL TO NITE $5 EW X This one has always shown a bit of ability, just hit a bit of a flat patch last preparation. Has a really nice turn of foot finishing burst, just needs the track to stay dead or better as suspect on wet ground. Fitter for the 2 runs in, loomed up nicely under weight last start and just looks ready to do something here today. Inside barrier a bit tricky, think she is better ridden cold and coming home late out wide and hard but she has the ability to win a race like this and happy to have something each way at the $17 on offer. RESULTS: Another who was trapped on the inside and much better out and running in room. Give another chance. BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 12-NICONOISE $2.50 EW X Has spent most of his career running in much harder races – and not going particularly well in them either. Fitter for the 2 runs in and spent most of the straight last time switching for runs when finishing on OK. Strong finisher drawn outside and should get a clear run late down the middle today. Taking on spec a bit, as doesn’t have much in the way of form to recommend it, but maybe just worth a little something each way as rank outsider in this field at around $41. RESULTS: Makes a long run around them from last on a track that was favouring on pacers. Still well beaten but might pick up a race in the country sometime soon. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 8-TRIBAL ROCK at around $2.70 3rd W=$2.90 fav Waterhouse stable had a dead set shocker here on Saturday, so guess they are due for a change of luck. This one has ability, easy win last start and will sit on speed here in a race with not much pressure. Form wise looks a chance, just don’t like the odds and there are a few in this race who go OK or who are on the improve. Just looks a field with lots of chances, so whilst this is probably a winning chance does not look like value at the moment. Risking. RESULTS: Jumps and runs and gets perfect run on speed but there is one that is smarter than him in this. Successful lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUINELLA: Race 3: 3-DOMINANT, 6-SUPER COOL x $5 2nd 6-SUPER COOL W=$2.20 These two should really fight out the third race, the (3) is a maiden but always around the money siting on the speed and back to an easier winnable race, and the (6) is one on the up who fought on OK at Flem last start when wide most of the way and might improve ridden more cold and launching late here. RESULTS: The (3) plays up before the race but still starts and is well beaten. The (6) takes some time to wind up along the inside and is still worth following, but keeps starting under the odds. RESULT: WIPE OUT SPENT: $50 RETURN: $0 NET: -$50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 1-ISABELLA SNOWFLAKE, 9-RHANDARA, 3-GET PRONTO Race 2: EARLY 2YO RACE. PRETEND TO BE AT WORK. Race 3: 3-DOMINANT, 6-SUPER COOL, 7-AVA’S DELIGHT Race 4: 3-LORD WIMBLE, 5-SERTORIUS, 12-NICONOISE Race 5: 6-MORANT, 8-PETMAN, 10-SPECTER Race 6: 5-MEMBERS JOY, 4-MAYBE DISCREET, 9-MOLTO BENE Race 7: 12-MODEL TO NITE, 2-OASIS BLOOM, 6-SUSSURO Race 8: 10-PRACTICED, 12-APRES, 14-PICTURE EDITOR |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-ISABELLA SNOWFLAKE 1st W=$2.30 9-RHANDARA SCR 3-GET PRONTO |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-DOMINANT 6-SUPER COOL 2nd W=$2.20 7-AVA’S DELIGHT 1st W=$6.70 Quinella: $7.00 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-LORD WIMBLE 5-SERTORIUS 1st W=$2.90 12-NICONOISE |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-MORANT 8-PETMAN 2nd W=$5.10 10-SPECTER 3rd W=$8.70 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-MEMBERS JOY 4-MAYBE DISCREET 9-MOLTO BENE |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-MODEL TO NITE 2-OASIS BLOOM 2nd W=$3.70 6-SUSSURO |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-PRACTICED 1st W=$2.80 12-APRES 14-PICTURE EDITOR |
| RACE 6: THOUSAND GUINEAS GROUP 1 1600M 3YOF |
| Tips: 5-MEMBERS JOY 4-MAYBE DISCREET 9-MOLTO BENE |
| Others: 15,2,10,8,13 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 4-MAYBE DISCREET, 2-LONGPORT Handy: 3-LADY OF HARRODS, 5-MEMBERS JOY, 8-COMMANDING JEWEL, 10-BIG CHILL , 14-BALACLAVA LADY, 17-MEDITRINA (emerg), 18-EXCITUS (emerg) Back: 7-MAMA'S CHOICE, 9-MOLTO BENE, 11-LOVE FOR RANSOM, 12-STELLA LANTE, 13-DAZZLER, 15-ZYDECO, 16-LA ZUMA, 1-DEAR DEMI Chances: 4-MAYBE DISCREET is a super tough on pace filly who really has not done much wrong in her career. She had the big plus of having the 1600M run in over her rivals last start and it probably made the difference – she had to cross from an outside barrier and work early, they loomed in the straight to go past her but she still fought on. Really tough win – they loomed up and had her covered but she kept fighting. Better draw here today and will go forward. Not much between the first few home in the Edward Manifold, and maybe the ones behind here might have more improvement than this one, but she will put herself into the race at the right time and is as tough as. Strong chance. 5-MEMBERS JOY is going to be a great news story for the MRC if she wins, being owned by the Caulfield members. She has been going along really well this campaign, another who flopped first up on the heavy track, but nice win down the straight at odds after that. Just an even effort here in the Tranquil Star where seemed to have every chance, but really liked the way she finished off strongly in the Edward Manifold – she was coming hard at them and often it is the strongest finisher out of that race that you want to back here. Will probably sit back a little and run on – but suspect that is going to be the racing pattern here. Funny thing is remember as a 2YO when she kicked clear in a Blue Diamond Preview, only to be run down and thinking that she was just a sprinter. But really liked the run last start, she came very hard and only just missed on the line and think she will get to the right part of the track and looms as a very strong chance at nice odds. Strong chance. 9-MOLTO BENE was the one we were expecting to be tipping in this based on her last run, was just a bit surprised that they didn’t give her a run since then ? Only had the 2 runs in, 1100M, 1400M and most of her rivals have had 3-4 runs in and a 1600M run under their belts. Not a huge fan of backing them going up in distance in these sort of races, especially not in a tough competitive even field. Both runs this time in have been excellent, strong finish down the straight 1st up, and really powering home strongly here last start on a track that was favouring on pacers. Definitely wanted to be on her next start based on that run. Strong finisher who is going to get good cover from the nice barrier and is probably going to be stronger at the end of 1600M than many of these. Racing pattern will probably suit runners on too. If she had an extra run in we would probably be tipping her strongly on top, she might still win regardless, just very little between so many of these. Chance 15-ZYDECO is one on the up and is going to continue to improve as the spring progresses and the distances increase. Had the 3 x 1600M runs in and you at least know that she will be strong at the end of 1600M here. Strong finisher from well back in the Edward Manifold, and our rule is always watch out for the strongest finisher from that race going into this. She is drawn well out, will drop back and run on, but suspect that will be the racing pattern and there is probably enough speed here in a big field to bring her into the race. Would probably prefer to be on her than the other strong finisher the (11). She will almost certainly run on really well today, just a matter of whether they are too brilliant over this trip – whatever happens you will probably be backing her later in the spring. Definitely the best rough chance in this field. Rough. 3rd W=$14.80 Place: 2-LONGPORT has been a bit of a surprise packet in Sydney wining on protest at massive odds 2 starts back , but then proving it was no fluke with a strong run last start. Looked covered at the top of the straight but fought on really well last start. On pacer who is likely to go forward here and might get caught a little wide with a few going forward. Has had a solid preparation so guess the question is whether there is much more improvement to come. The best Sydney filly has not made it through to this, so matter of whether those who were running behind her are good enough for this. This one is pretty tough and sticks on, on speed and looks a definite to be around the finish, but might just find one better. Place. 4th W=$11.70 3-LADY OF HARRODS has been competitive in all the right lead up races to this. Fitter for the 3 runs in, bombed out 1st up on a heavy track and then jumped and led and won at odds 2nd up when just held on from a finishing pack. Jockey jumped off that day and said he didn’t think she would get much further – hence we dropped off her. Came out and beat many of these the start after over 1400M, which if out maths is correct is actually further than 1200M. Got a dream run that day on a track where the on pacers were sticking on pretty well, sat behind leader and peeled out. Not quite sure what to do with this one – she is in winning form against many of these. She gets a 1-2 kgs weight advantage as well against many of her rivals from last start. She is going to get another dream sit on the speed here from her barrier racing handy. They might be winning running on though? Also just got that nagging thought that she is going to struggle at the 1600M. But her form is right, she will put herself into the race, and has a lot of pluses into this race, so she is bound to be around the finish somewhere. Place. 8-COMMANDING JEWEL has had a major spruik on her being related to ATLANTIC JEWEL and she hasn’t done much wrong in her career – but was starting way under her real odds because of the buzz and hence we were actually quite happy to take her on in her last two starts. Really hasn’t done much wrong though, not like she has been beaten by that much. Had to work and go forward in the Tranquil Star and looked the winner to only just be nabbed on the line, and right in the finish in the Edward Manifold – she did pull out and loom and had every chance to go past the (4), who had a tougher run, but couldn’t. Has been stepping up in distance each start so probably has some improvement to come still, and out to a more realistic price today so is worthy of consideration. Drawn well, will go forward and make her own luck, so hard to knock her chances. Just seemed to have every chance last start though and think the (4) and (5) have her covered here again. Guess again it might just be whether she gets swamped by strong finishers at the end of the 1600M ? Will be thereabouts though. Chance, but prefer place. 1st W=$7.40 10-BIG CHILL is probably the most likely surprise packet here. Only had the 2 runs in and going up in distance again, so probably a fair bit of improvement to come. Stuck on well here last start with very big weight and looks to have those coming through that race covered in this. Drawn a nice barrier to sit behind the speed. Probably best long shot place chance for those looking for big trifectas and first fours. Place. 11-LOVE FOR RANSOM has been a very, very hot and a ice, ice cold horse this spring. Came out first up at MV, dawdling last around the home turn, went into turbo and flew past them with super jet power that had everyone watching going wow. Then sent out a short priced favourite here 2 starts back, jockey spent most of the race having a play wrestle with the 2nd favourite out the back of the field, and when they decided to give it a serious crack the race was well and truly over. On pacers were strongly advantaged that day as well. So sort of taking her on trust if you want to back her here, MV win was good but reckon sometimes those swoop on the camber wins there can be a bit flattering. Only the 2 runs in and going 1200M/1400M into a 1600M race and always just prefer them to have had the run over the distance. Drawn out, will drop well back and try to storm home. Racing pattern should suit. On MV win she would be a strong chance in this, so if you are a believer than go for it. Guess you should always forgive them one bad run ? We might just prefer to play a safer option though, bit hard to judge exactly how she is going. Prefer place. 13-DAZZLER hasn’t had the best of luck the last few runs, but bit hard to tell if she is a genuine contender or just a bit of a tease. Fitter for the 3 runs in, and like that she has had 2 x 1400M lead up runs into this. Went for runs along the inside here 2 starts back and got blocked for room, then not much support in the betting last start at Flem when again had trouble getting clear. Bit hard to tell how well she was going though. Drawn a nice barrier would be nice to see her ridden a bit more forward so she doesn’t get into so much trouble. She is a bit of an unknown in this and she might do something today if she doesn’t strike trouble again. Rough. Sacking: 1-DEAR DEMI is a Sydney visitor and worth noting that the Sydney 3YO C+G were a class above the locals here on Saturday. Had the 4 runs in, solid grounding to run the 1600M right out so no doubts at the distance. Placed 3 from 3 over 1600M. The (2) though has beaten her home last 2 starts on the same weight terms and same distance, so you would think she might have her measure again today. She loomed up and looked to have the (2) covered easily last start – and couldn’t get past her. Shocking barrier here, will have to drop well back , but they should be running on. Probably been slightly disappointing last 2 runs, and in a tough even field the barrier is probably enough to go around her here again. Passing. 2nd W=$11.00 6-JADE MARAUDER SCR 7-MAMA'S CHOICE has been going along OK, but has been held in lead up runs by many going around today so would need to improve considerably. Drawn outside barrier, maybe listen for racing pattern advice as to whether they go forward as she usually does or drops back. Fitter for the 3 runs in but hard to see her beating home those in front of her previously. No 12-STELLA LANTE is another who has not done much wrong in her career so far. Fitter for the 3 runs in, looked to have the race well and truly won at MV 2nd up and then the (11) went past her in a flash with a super finishing burst. Got caught up at the back of the field with that one last start and they both missed the boat – great rides by the jockeys though – we mean what is more important – winning the race? Or making sure your main danger doesn’t get an easy run ? Drop back strong finisher drawn inside – and in a capacity field that is going to make it difficult for getting clear cracks at them. Really based on form the (11) has her measure. Happy to risk her today. Passing. 14-BALACLAVA LADY caused a boil over here last start at odds when stuck to the rails which was the place to be and won. Stable said they always had an opinion of her, just a matter of getting her to settle. Drawn out, can race handy, chance might get caught a little wide today as there are a few who can go forward here. She is also meeting the (10) a whopping 5kgs worse off for only a 1.3L margin from last start. She got a dream run last start, they peeled off the rails and she just poked through in the best ground. Might still have some improvement to come. But comes down to what is going to be the strongest form line and you would think the Edward Manifold or Sydney form will rule here. Risking. 16-LA ZUMA is having only her 3rd start and is lacking experience compared to some of these. Has been going along OK, dropped well back 1st up before finishing on to win, and then took advantage of inside barrier to go forward last start in a fair effort, but hard to see her beating home those who finished in front of her there today. Drawn out today and they probably have to drop back. Stepping up in distance 1200M/1400M/1600M and prefer others. No 17-MEDITRINA (emerg) is a maiden going into a Group 1. Hasn’t been that far away her last two runs and can sit on the speed here from good barrier, but looks outclassed here. No 18-EXCITUS (emerg) is another maiden coming through the same race as the (17). Note that the winner of the race 2 starts ago at Bendigo raced here on Sat and didn’t do much. On pacer, drawn out, likely to get caught wide if gets a start and will add to the speed if she gets into the field, but no interest other than that. No Summary: At first glance this looks a really tough race, with a very even field and no stand out super star filly. But think that if you sit down and do the form, watch the videos, you can have a bet with confidence. Really the form for these is very well exposed – they have all been racing against each other, so there are only about 4 races to watch. Line them up – and bet with confidence. Usually it is the Edward Manifold Stakes form that is the best guide for this race, in fact often you can just back the first two home from that race. Only question mark is the few who have shown some potential but had poor runs and whether they are the real deal or not, and whether the Sydney form is stronger as it was for the males on Saturday – though the best Sydney filly has not made it this far. Often on this day the track is starting to wear and the winner of this race is a strong finisher down the middle of the track. Considering they were already finishing on last Saturday suspect that is going to be the racing pattern. Pace here actually looks pretty solid in a even field, 4-MAYBE DISCREET, 2-LONGPORT sharing the lead, 3-LADY OF HARRODS, 8-COMMANDING JEWEL, 10-BIG CHILL , 14-BALACLAVA LADY sitting behind these. We are seriously keen on the 5-MEMBERS JOY here, you really can’t go wrong backing the strongest finisher out of the Edward Manifold in this race. She finished on really well and only just missed there, the tempo and likely racing pattern here will suit and of course it is going to be a great news story for the MRC members who actually race her. Think she is way over the odds and should be 2nd or 3rd favourite here. 4-MAYBE DISCREET the main danger racing on the speed, you have to like how she kicked last start when they had every right to go past here. The 9-MOLTO BENE the third pick, haven’t seen her for a couple of weeks but her last run was huge so if she repeats that run finishing on she is right in this. Actually a stack of rough chances here as well, especially the 15-ZYDECO and the 10-BIG CHILL. Despite the big field, keen to bet, each way on the top pick at around $13 looks over the odds, and quinella with the 2nd pick, both which should provide decent value. One to risk: 11-LOVE FOR RANSOM 7th W=$11 Roughie: 15-ZYDECO 3rd W=$14.80, 10-BIG CHILL The Key: Runners on over 1600M RESULTS: The Edward Manifold form is so often the form to follow for this race. So we did just that, tipping the 1st and 2nd runners from that race. Of course the 3rd place getter, 8-COMMANDING JEWEL comes out and wins impressively. Just she seemed to have every chance her last two runs, but produced a strong finishing burst today when ridden a bit more quietly today. As predicted 15-ZYDECO runs on just that little bit too late, but is the one to follow going forward. |
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