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| CAULFIELD: THOUSAND GUINEAS - 16th OCT 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: FINE + WINDY - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Fair bit of rain late last weekend and a cold blustery start to the week so this track is currently a SLOW(6). Weather is clearing up Tues / Weds though, with a fair bit of wind so expect this track will improve pretty rapidly to be a genuine dead. With a bit of give in the ground, and the rail staying TRUE (same as Saturday), expect the inside to chop up a bit and be looking for those running on wide out late, especially with the windy conditions and especially later in the day. Look for horses who are going to get cover and finish hard late. Barriers likely to be important here in really big fields for most of the day. This is often a pretty tricky betting day with lots of form lines and today is no exception. Nothing like kicking off the quaddie with a 20 horse x 2000M race. Just be wary as think the favourites in some of these races are far too short (except the main race obviously), in fields with lots of combinations, variations and possibilities and lots of horses that go OK. Definitely only a dabble day, go wide in quinellas and trifectas and sure to be some big dividends. Just taking some small each way bets and going to try and grab a nice quinella somewhere. RESULTS: Fine and windy day, the inside is a bit worn and most of the winners come off the rails later in the day, but they can run on and win. Despite the tricky program most of the well backed runners win - just we don't find them. And we didn't even get warm in the 20 horses x 2000M race. Most disappointing. Betting Portfolio gets off to a flying start, but still can't manage a collect with both each way bets running frustrating 4ths. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 5-LE BONSIR $5 EW 4th W=$8.30 This one is absolutely flying at the moment, in career best form and really had to like the way he whooshed past the leader at MV two starts back. Huge run to place in strong Group 1 last start, honest, fit, excellent 1200M record having only missed the place twice in 12 starts. Will race on speed here and give himself every chance – coming off a Group 1 placing – and we get odds of $7.50 ! Really ? Definitely want to have something each way on this one. RESULTS: Perfect sit and looms on the home turn, but the first two whoosh past him pretty easily and quickly and despite running 4th he is not really in the finish. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 7-GOLDSLICK $5 EW 4th W=$6.80 Generally the class mare will win this race, which is the (2), but we always back her so looking elsewhere today. This one is racing pretty well at the moment. Fitter for the 2 runs in and hit the line hard last start at Flemington and the 1600M here today looks like it will suit. There isn’t a huge amount of speed in this, but she should sit just off the speed in this and peel out at the right time and run into the race. Looks a nice each way bet at around $5.50 RESULTS: Just gets a little further back than we would have liked, but works to the line well. Keep following. BEST WIN: Race 2: 9-CORREGGIO, 6-MUJADALE $3 WIN 1st 6-MUJADALE W=$10.00 = 10.00 x 3 = $30 QUINELLA: Race 2: 9-CORREGGIO, 6-MUJADALE x $2 1st 6-MUJADALE W=$10.00 QUINELLA: Race 2: 9-CORREGGIO#8,12,13 x 50 cents = $1.50 QUINELLA: Race 2: 6-MUJADALE #8,12,13 x 50 cents = $1.50 1st 6-MUJADALE W=$10.00 There are two we want to back in Race 2, which is a stupidly even field of stayers. The (9) is lightly raced with a good win/place strike rate and wasn’t disgraced in a much harder race on a heavy track last start. The value runner is probably the (6) who is fitter for the 4 runs in and may go forward here. Back both straight out at $4.40 and $12 respectively, and take small quinellas with some of the other chances. RESULTS: Off to a flying start to the day with a nice collect here. Super tough win too - was headed on the home turn by a few of them but just kept fighting on - despite leading into a headwind. Couldn't grab a nice quinella to top things off as well though. QUINELLA: Race 4: 2,4,5,12,13 x 50 cents = $5 2nd 4-FLYINGCONI W=$16.00 / X QUINELLA: Race 5: 2,3,7,8,15 x 50 cents = $5 3rd 8-FABRIANO W=$31.30 / X Let’s try and get a nice value quinella in Race 4 and 5 in very even fields. In Race 4 the (5) is the one to beat, but we like the 12-XAVI at around $10 who should get a good on pace sit in a race with lots of back markers and not much speed. Race 5 is totally crazy, field of 20 runners, all with some chance so sure to be a nice quinella, and most of the better chances have drawn outside barriers. The safest way to go might be the Race 5: 15-KINESTHETIC each way at around $13, but sure to be longer on the tote - from a nice barrier getting a sit, whilst lots of these are searching for runs out the back. It may turn into a bit of a tough 2000M slog too, so throw in the roughie 3-FINAL FOLLY who will go forward and make his own luck. RESULTS: Find some value place getters, but that is about it. TRIFECTA: Race 6: 1-GUELPH, 4-SE SAUVER, 8-WORDPLAY x $2 1st 1-GUELPH W=$1.40 / X / X TRIFECTA: Race 6: 1-GUELPH, 4-SE SAUVER, 7-MIRACLE TO ME x $2 1st 1-GUELPH W=$1.40 / X / X Really not much you can do in the main race except to try to nail the trifecta for multiple units. The value runner here is the (4) who has been racing really well and keeps starting over the odds, if she runs 2nd and something out of the ordinary runs 3rd we might squeeze a $40 dividend or so. RESULTS: Favourite wins easily, but obvious picks run the place so no oomph in the trifecta dividend. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 4-SPECTER at around $2.80 2nd W=$3.50 The more observant amongst you may have noticed that the Lay of the Day has a nasty habit of winning. This is one of the shortest of the day in the All Greys – Heat 1, but happy to take it on. Has some ability, good run 1st up, city class galloper who ran in a lot of Group races as a 3YO when he showed potential – but he hasn’t won now since his first couple of races in 2011. Is often around the finish, but usually has every chance and bit concerned that he still hasn’t racked up another win in his last 12 starts. Might win, but seriously, who is going to back a short priced favourite in the All Greys race anyways? Risking. RESULTS: Does get baulked for a run when running into the finish and finishes on well, but doubt he would have won regardless. Still think he is getting into the finish a bit too often without winning one. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 8: 5,14 / 2, 4,5,13,14,17,18,19 / 4,5,14,17,18 x $5 = 10.41% 1st 14-COMPLICATE W=$3.80 / 3rd 13-CASCABEL W=$33.50 / 4th 5-LE BONSIR W=$8.30 Let’s end the day trying to snare a trifecta in the last which is certain to pay well. The main chances look to be the 5-LE BONSIR, 14-COMPLICATE, and we especially like the (5). The value runner might be the 17-FELIDEA who finished off well at MV last start where the 955M was far too short. In a big field there is a good chance something at odds will pop up for 2nd, so go as wide as possible for 2nd, and for 3rd stick to those well drawn on speed who are likely to be in the finish. RESULTS: Find the winner just fine and one of the value place getters, but not in the order that is going to pay. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $30 NET: $-20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 3-GOOGLY GANDER, 7-NO EQUIVALENT, 5-GRAVITATIONAL Race 2: 9-CORREGGIO, 6-MUJADALE, 13-PACKING EMPIRE Race 3: 11-LIVE FOR TODAY, 5-RUN DIEGO, 15-CONSOLING AMY Race 4: 12-XAVI, 5-HOSTING, 13-CANONIZED Race 5: 15-KINESTHETIC, 2-ELECTRIC FUSION, 3-FINAL FOLLY Race 6: 1-GUELPH, 4-SE SAUVER, 8-WORDPLAY Race 7: 7-GOLDSLICK, 10- TWO SUGARS, 2-BONARIA Race 8: 5-LE BONSIR, 14-COMPLICATE, 17-FELIDEA |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-GOOGLY GANDER 7-NO EQUIVALENT 3rd W=$2.50 5-GRAVITATIONAL |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-CORREGGIO 6-MUJADALE 1st W=$10.00 *** Best Win Bet of the Day *** 13-PACKING EMPIRE |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-LIVE FOR TODAY 5-RUN DIEGO 15-CONSOLING AMY |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-XAVI 5-HOSTING 13-CANONIZED |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-KINESTHETIC 2-ELECTRIC FUSION 3-FINAL FOLLY |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-GUELPH 1st W=$1.40 4-SE SAUVER 8-WORDPLAY |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-GOLDSLICK 10- TWO SUGARS 3rd W=$9.10 2-BONARIA 2nd W=$9.40 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-LE BONSIR 14-COMPLICATE 1st W=$3.80 17-FELIDEA |
| RACE 6: THOUSAND GUINEAS GROUP 1 1600M 3YO F |
| Tips: 1-GUELPH 1st W=$1.40 4-SE SAUVER 8-WORDPLAY |
| Others: 7 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 2-GREGERS, 6-GODIVA ROCK Handy: 1-GUELPH, 3-BOUND FOR EARTH Back: 4-SE SAUVER, 5-MAY'S DREAM, 7-MIRACLE TO ME, 8-WORDPLAY, 9-GYPSY DIAMOND Chances: 1-GUELPH is the super dominant Sydney 3YO filly who has pretty much scared away most of the field here. They should hire her to scare away pesky loitering teenagers from shopping malls. Strong finishing, very athletic type who has been totally dominant in her Sydney wins. Easily accounted for the (3) her last couple of starts. 2YO form was just as electric so really has a pretty substantial bank balance of over a million dollars already. Been super consistent and super reliable for quite a while now , would be coming into this on a 5 start winning streak if it wasn’t for very narrow defeat 1st up. Did drop well back in her 2YO races, but will probably sit handier here in a small field like she has done last few starts in Sydney. Guess the only concern is she has only been beating small fields in Sydney, and with a small field here this could turn into a very tactical race but she has the tactical turn of foot to beat these. Proven Melb way of going before too. Short odds and looks the winner. One to beat. 1st W=$1.40 4-SE SAUVER is one we have been following this spring and have a bit of time for. Because she is in a no name stable she has been starting over the odds even though her form is similar to many of these. Was right in the finish here 2nd up, then went to the country for a easy win, and yet still started long odds last 2 starts – almost like that 2nd up run here at Group 3 level didn’t really happen ! Got stuck out the back in silly dawdle race here in the Tranquil Star, and was making good ground on a day when nothing made ground in the last few races. Run into it well at Flemington and seemed to appreciate the distance and big track and the Edward Manifold is always a very strong pointer to this race. Handles all going, will settle out the back again and just seems to still be on the improve. Chance. 5-MAY'S DREAM is showing a stack of potential and may even live up to the reputation of her Melbourne Cup runner up mother. Don’t you hate over ambitious sporting parents ? Stable has a big opinion of her. Very light preparation – only the 2 runs in – 1200M and 1400M and generally you want to be on strong finishing race fit 1600M milers in this. Eye catching run 1st up storming home late, then always had the race in her control here last start. Not quite sure how strong her opposition was there though. She will drop back and run on and has a bit of untapped potential about her – so guess if one is going to step up and cause the boil over here it would probably be her. Jockey said last start he just wasn’t sure if she was too brilliant at this stage for the mile – but guess we find out today. She is a chance of the boilover, so maybe keep safe, but just suspect this is coming too early in her career at the moment. Rough only.2nd W=$8.00 8-WORDPLAY seems to be going along well and creates interest as she largely represents a new form line to this. Consistent strong finishing 1600M Sydney form, then wasn’t disgraced in the Edward Manifold, when squeezed through a very narrow gap on the inside, but was losing ground on the line. Suspect she is better ridden in space and that race is always a good form reference race for this. Yet to strike a wet track. Oliver goes on board and the man is riding like a jockey possessed at the moment – some of his wins on the weekend were simply outstanding rides. Tactically they have to work out how to beat the favourite though, suggest the best chance is to maybe try and race ahead of her and pinch a break in a slowly run race? Looks the most obvious pick for a place. Chance. 4th W=$16.20 Place: 2-GREGERS has had a pretty consistent spring, kicking off with a dominant kick off the bend win at MV when she stamped herself as one to watch out for this spring. Easy lead and win 2nd up at MV, and then not far off them down the straight at Flem when she probably got a little lost – suspect she is better around a bend. Raced on speed in one of the silly dawdle races on Underwood Stakes Day so had the race handed to her. Trainer has always said he wasn’t sure about her at the 1600M, not sure that the last start win really proves much – they went stupidly slow and nothing could make ground – and the (4) who finished well behind her there and couldn’t make ground has won since. In her favour here though is the small field again, and she can dictate the speed if she wants to. She does have a very explosive sprint if the race is run to suit. Still have queries about her over the 1600M, especially if they are winning running on and prefer place today despite her good form. Place only. 3rd W=$8.70 3-BOUND FOR EARTH has been chasing the (1) home the last few starts and hard to see her doing any different here today. Fitter for the 3 runs in, and the run over the 1600M and probably has more improvement to come than the (1) who is more seasoned. Probably settles out the back here and runs on out wide which should be the racing pattern. Main question is whether she is the obvious runner up or something can pop up to split them. Place again. 7-MIRACLE TO ME has actually been racing pretty well and is probably a little under rated. Swooping strong finishing win down the straight 1st up, then forget the run in the Tranquil Star dawdle when she got back. Ran on quite well at Flemington to finish not beaten that far. Strong finisher who will be suited if they are winning running on, and does seem to go better on wet ground - so if some give remains in this track will be a big plus for her. She appears to be a tough, grinding type suited out to the 1600M – probably just wants some speed on, but is the best rough chance in this. Rough. Sacking: 6-GODIVA ROCK has been a bit of a major dud this spring, so surprised they are still pushing on with her. Showed good form as a 2YO and on the back of that got sent out a $1.18 favourite 1st up at Sale – and managed to fall into third place. Ouch. Unbelievably still started favourite the start after that at Moonee Valley, when did go a little wide and early, but quickly folded up. Then led at Flemington on a day when they were winning running on with a strong head wind and didn’t do much but guess you can probably forgive that performance. Guess she is fitter for the 3 runs in and can probably improve - well – she can’t exactly race any worse than she is at the moment, so she is almost certain to improve. Assume they will go to the lead here again in a small field with not much speed, but hard to see her figuring in this based on current form. No 9-GYPSY DIAMOND at the very least comes into this through different form lines, so the (1) hasn’t had the chance to beat the living daylights out of her yet – won’t be long now though. Only the 2 runs in, and has dropped back and finished on well in both of them. This field is top heavy with back markers though, she is 3rd up and up in distance again and doubt she is going to be the one to cause a boilover. No reason why she couldn’t run 4th though and boost the First 4 dividend. No Summary: Traditionally this is actually a really good betting race, but this is a few times now in the last few years where we have had outstanding fillies and short priced favourites in small fields making this pretty much a non-event – last time was ATLANTIC JEWEL a few years back. Normally in this race you want to be on the strong finishing, improving 1600M filly on the up – and the best runner on out of the Edward Manifold is usually a pretty good way to go – so before we forget, check out the run of FANTOME GRIS from that race to run 4th and back her wherever she pops up again, which we assume will be Caulfield this weekend. But back to this race. Tactically this is going to be an interesting race with a small field and not much speed, so 6-GODIVA ROCK probably leads, with 2-GREGERS sitting off her and then a stack of back makers waiting to make their run. Guess there is the chance for something to sit and sprint early here and try to pinch it, but pretty hard to see the 1-GUELPH getting beaten, she can just stalk these and is just so strong at the end of her races. 4-SE SAUVER is probably the value runner, racing really well and think you can play with trifectas with the favourite the win and the (4) to fill a placing. 8-WORDPLAY for 3rd who might improve 2nd run in Melbourne and with a bit more room in running. 7-MIRACLE TO ME the roughie to try and boost the exotics who shouldn’t be that far off them. Largely a no bet race though with the short priced favourite. One to risk: 2-GREGERS 3rd W=$8.70 Roughie: 7-MIRACLE TO ME The Key: Strong finishing 1600M Sydney fillies with 6 letter names starting with “G” RESULTS: Brave move by jockey to take the favourite to the lead into a pretty strong headwind, but she is too classy for these. Great run by the 5-MAY'S DREAM who loomed like she was going to run into it and cause an upset, but died on her run. She is the one to follow out of this race. |
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