|CAULFIELD: THOUSAND GUINEAS 13th October 2021|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: OUT 9M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Fine sunny day Tuesday and then serious rain forecast for Wednesday so we need to try and play weather man here as to what time it will come through. We are guessing it is going to be pretty late in the afternoon and we may get through most of this racing program on a firm surface. Few important things to note, the rail goes out 9M today from TRUE on Saturday and they have changed the rail placement in the last few years, as it used to stay in the same spot mid-week and go out for Caulfield Cup day, now they move it out mid-week and move it back in on the Saturday. This means we will probably get a track favouring those on-speed on a firm track, even though they could run on well out wide last Saturday. The other thing is that we finally have both the Thousand Guineas AND the Coogny back on the Wednesday program for the first time since 2013 (has it really been that long?!) This meeting was ultra-ordinary since they moved them and good to have the natural spring punting universe order restored.
For the feature Thousand Guineas, it is worth noting the 3YO fillies form has been pretty topsy-turvy this year. The speed here should be the 8-QUEEN OF DUBAI running to the lead again, but the Sydney sider the 1-SWIFT WITNESS will probably go forward from an outside barrier and sit outside her and put pressure on, with the 10-BARB RAIDER and 2-HINGED next in running and the 11-CUBAN INK and 13-FORTUNATE KISS behind these.
Going through the field the 1-SWIFT WITNESS has been racing very well in Sydney and good chance that may be the stronger form lines as it was with the males on Saturday. She has looked the winner last two starts, just run down near the line two starts back and really she kicked like the winner last start before fading badly late. Still they were both solid runs and she will sit outside the leader here and make her own luck so hard to knock her chances. The 2-HINGED is a lot more seasoned than most of these, having won three times through the winter. Worked home like a solid miler along the rails last start in a strong form race, but normally races on-speed. Drawn out is a plus for a Sydney horse first time Melbourne way of going, maybe just would prefer some more give in the ground so might keep an eye on the rain forecast with her. The 3-ELUSIVE EXPRESS has been racing extremely well, finished hard late here two starts back and then always looked the winner in the Edward Manifold which is normally a good form race for this race. Will drop back here from an outside barrier so will need them to be running on and winning but $10 seems good odds for a traditional lead up winner going into this race and not too fussed about a wide barrier for a drop back and run-on horse. The 4-BONíS A PEARLER was a surprise winner here last start, but really her form before that wasnít that bad, they did go fast in that race and she got the perfect trail into the race. Drawn wide here and likely to drop well back and prefer the (3) out of that race so more a place chance. The 5-LITERARY MAGNATE is fitter for the two runs in, wasnít too far away 1st up and then was covered by a few going around here last start so hard to see her improving enough to beat them.
The 6-ZOUZARELLA has been very impressive this spring since her debut run and win at MV, and just failed to rein in a tear away leader as short priced favourite last start at Sandown. Likely favourite here in an even field, just a little wary of her in her first preparation as to how far she will go and donít think the inside barrier here will suit her running style, she has been swooping down the outside in all her runs to date. Happy to go around her here in an even betting race with plenty of value chances. The 7-HERESY has been racing very consistently this spring, fitter for the 3 runs in, looked to have every chance when she burst through on the inside here two starts back and then loomed as the winner here start before being nabbed late. You would think Oliver pushes her more forward here from barrier 1, but just get the feeling she was fading at the end of 1400M last start and she will find others stronger here again over 1600M. The 8-QUEEN OF DUBAI surprised when she pinched the race last start, it was no disadvantage to be leading that day at Sandown and punters watching knew we were in serious trouble when she ran out to a clear and easy lead early. She does meet the (6) 1.5kgs worse off for that run which should even out the margin. They probably wonít let her lead as easily this time and she may have to work a bit harder and they should be closer to her in the run, but be wary of her if we end up with a firm track favouring those on-speed. The 9-YEARNING was actually really good last start at Flemington and fought out the finish well with the (3) poking up on the rails. She has Sydney form and looks to be an improving type and is nicely drawn here with a middle barrier to sit behind the speed and run into the race at the right time, so looks a good value chance.
The 10-BARB RAIDER has been flying this spring and you always need to pay attention to the dominant winning 3YO going through the lead-up races. Absolutely smashed them at Sandown two starts back and the third horse has won since, and then was never in danger last start over 1800M. On an Oaks path and an interesting decision to drop back to the 1600M today instead of running in one of the 2000M races available here this Saturday Ė think that is a sign of confidence Ė they think this is a winnable Group 1 along the way and the horse is going that well. Drawn well, will sit on-speed, will be strong at the end of 1600M and clearly looks the one to beat in this. The 11-CUBAN LINK is one we have been following and think she is worth keeping an eye on, still early on in her career. Good solid win in her maiden and really liked the Flemington win, she came from wide and well back there on a day when all the winners were on-speed and close to the rails Ė think she was the only horse to win out wide all day. Perfect draw here and she can race handy and might be one on the improve and think she is a great rough chance in this. Just a question of measuring up to this field with a step rise in class. The 12-ACHIRA is a Sydney provincial maiden winner and extremely tough to line up, went forward last start but assume they will drop back here and market doesnít seem to rate her. The 13-FORTUNATE KISS fought on really well at Sandown two starts back behind an all the way leader and winner and then didnít have much room last start when looked like she was about to produce and run into the finish. Watch the stewards head-on from that run, she was knocked around a lot and just couldnít build momentum trying to get a run. Another who will settle handle and get a good run into this if she can run out the 1600M today.
This is a seriously good betting race and we are keen to have a bet into this with an even field and lots of value around. There are actually quite a few different form lines which is unusual for this race. The clear top pick is the 10-BARB RAIDER who is flying at the moment and should get a perfect run and at least we know she will run out the 1600M, which is a distance some of these may be a query at. But there are plenty of good each way chances like the 9-YEARNING who we really like the last run of and there doesnít seem to be much respect for the Edward Manifold form to have her going around at $26 in this, and the 13-FORTUNATE KISS who had no luck last start at Sandown. Best roughie is the
11-CUBAN LINK, even with the rise in class really like the way she is going and despite being a blanket finish last start thought she was very impressive against the pattern of the day, and another who is drawn to get a perfect on-speed run and get every chance. Nothing wrong with the form of 3-ELUSIVE EXPRESS either and who will also go around at double figure odds here. Respect for the 2-HINGED who has the probably stronger Sydney form and is proven over the 1600M, maybe just want some rain to come for her. Betting plan is to have something at odds each way on the roughie 9-YEARNING and wide box quinellas and running doubles with plenty of good value winning chances.
This has ended up a decent betting program, which is a relief as we have had some pretty ordinary meetings on this day over the last 10 years. The second half of the program is very appealing from a punting point of view and there looks to be a lot of value, more than happy to steer clear from Race 3 (2000M race with a stack of imported internationals) and Race 4 (even 2400M race where most of these has been racing against each other with not much between them). Will be interesting to see in the Blue Sapphire if the 1-PROFITEER bubble expands or pops, we are a bit iffy about that 1st up run when beaten favourite at Group 1 level.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 3-CHEERFUL MOMENT $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 3-CHEERFUL MOMENT, 6-CAPITAL LEGEND x $2 = 200%
Think we missed the boat on this one, we could have sworn he was $11 when the markets opened up. WA import who had little support 1st up (even after winning a barrier trial), but came from well back to fight out a four way finish, and that was against the pattern of the day which favoured those on-speed and on the rails. Looks like extra distance will suit, small field means he should be able to sit back and run on hard late if the racing pattern allows. Each way at around $5, just a shame itís not $11. Letís try and get some better value with a confident quinella with the main danger the 6-CAPITAL LEGEND who loomed into race nicely 1st up and should have improvement to come off that run.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 7-IMPERIAL LAD $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 7-IMPERIAL LAD#9,10,11,14 x $2 = 50%
We have been backing this one a bit, but happy to stick with him. Has been racing very consistently over this trip and against some pretty decent horses, last start back to the 1200M he just got lost midfield when they were quicker than him. Much better suited here running to the lead over the longer distance and good chance that will be the racing pattern. Jockey Meech is pretty good at front runners as well. Looks a solid each way bet at around $12 and looks a good anchor quinella option as likely to be in the finish with the consistent strong finishing 9-FRANKIE PINOT, the 10-GRINZINGER ALLEE who is better than last start, the consistent 11-GOOD AND PROPER and suspect the 14-SEB SONG may do something here coming off a strong finishing 1st up run.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 4-FOXY FRIDA $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 3,4,6,9 boxed x $3 = 50%
The mares race on this day is always a good betting race and although the in form 9-SIRILEO MISS is the one to beat and short priced favourite, we are really liking the $18 on offer about this one each way. She stepped up a notch during the winter with strong flying finishes and has a really good turn of foot when unleashed. Given a freshen up and she was hitting the line well last start at Sandown. Worth noting she does meet the (9) 4.5 kgs worse off, which is a seriously bad weight turn around, but we just think she is on the up and want to stick with her regardless. Assume coming into this race the rain will have started to fall, and she might be able to swoop over the top of them late from an outside barrier. Back each way and box in a quinella with the favourite and horse to beat the 9-SIRILEO MISS, the classy Sydney mare 6-HARMONY ROSE who will race on-speed and the other value runner on-speed the 3-ECUMENICAL.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 7-ATHELRIC $2.50 EW
All focus is on the top two in the market in the Blue Sapphire, the very promising 8-MINSK MOMENT and the tear away leader 1-PROFITEER who needs to prove he can go on with his 2YO form. There is really not much between the rest of them, but this one has been racing well this spring, should have won at MV two starts back when just took a while to get into clear running, and then fair effort in the Guineas Prelude. Back to the 1200M here suits and he should be able to trail the speed here into the race and run into the race at the right time at around $20 so looks the best chance away from the main two in betting.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 9-YEARNING $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 3,9,10,11,13 boxed x $5 = 50%
Plenty of value chances in the Thousand Guineas and liked the way this one darted through on the rails last start at Flemington before being run down late. Drawn to get a good sit here and might run into the race at the right time at around $30 and think she is well over her odds coming off a good 2nd in the Edward Manifold. Back her each way and take a wide quinella with the in-form 10-BARB RAIDER, the 13-FORTUNATE KISS who will also race on-speed and had no luck last start, the strong finishing 3-ELUSIVE EXPRESS and watch out for the roughie 11-CUBAN LINK who was really good last start widest on the track against the race pattern. Plenty of value in this quinella if we can get it home.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 13-AGREEABLE at around $5
One who does have ability, and was an eye catcher coming home late 1st up. But she tends to do that, and has now only won 2 from 11 and placed 4 from 11 and yet has started $6 or less in just about every career start. Drawn to drop well back on the inside here and will need luck and a racing pattern that favours them running on late. Prefer to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a Freedom Day all you can eat buffet with bonus haircut.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 4: 11-REFLECT THE STARS
PLACE: Race 5: 7-IMPERIAL LAD
PLACE: Race 7: 13-FORTUNATE KISS
PLACE: Race 8: 4-FOXY FRIDA
Tough staying race in Race 4, but the 11-REFLECT THE STARS should lob on-speed and is pretty honest and hopefully can get us rolling. The Race 5: 7-IMPERIAL LAD will lead and kick and hopefully keep us alive, whilst looking for a nice on-speed run from the Race 7:13-FORTUNATE KISS to be in the finish somewhere. Hopefully we can be live going into the last leg and barrack the Race 8: 4-FOXY FRIDA flashing home late out wide down the middle of the track for a tidy $1200 collect!
Races 6,7,8,9: 7,9,11,14 / 1,8 / 2,3,9,10,11,13 / 4,6,9 x $20 = 13.88%
Looks to be a good value quaddie and think we need to anchor down on the top two picks in the Blue Sapphire (we have already backed the roughie 7-ATHELRIC ) so we can go wide in the other legs. 7-IMPERIAL LAD, 9-FRANKIE PINOT, 11-GOOD AND PROPER, 14-SEB SONG should get us through the first leg, and lets load up the Thousand Guineas with plenty of double figure chances, before coming home on the main chances in the market 9-SIRILEO MISS, 6-HARMONY ROSE and the value 4-FOXY FRIDA in the last. Think we give this a shake today, just need to get a value winner up in one of the legs.
Race 1: 3-CHEERFUL MOMENT, 6-CAPITAL LEGEND, 1-RHINOCEROS
Race 2: 3-FLOATING ARTIST, 2-DUAIS, 4-DOUBLE YOU TEE
Race 3: 9-ALYCONE, 8-BEA TEMPTED, 12-WAR CRITIC
Race 4: 11-REFLECT THE STARS, 8-PRINCE ZIGGY, 9-RUDIMENTAL
Race 5: 7-IMPERIAL LAD, 11-GOOD AND PROPER, 14-SEB SONG
Race 6: 8-MINSK MOMENT, 1-PROFITEER, 7-ATHELRIC
Race 7: 10-BARB RAIDER, 9-YEARNING, 13-FORTUNATE KISS
Race 8: 4-FOXY FRIDA, 9-SIRILEO MISS, 6-HARMONY ROSE