|CAULFIELD: THOUSAND GUINEAS - 12th October 2022|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: RAIN (LATER) - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Fantastic day of racing here last Saturday for the Caulfield Guineas when the track came up a lot better than expected, the racing pattern was even and they could run on and win, and were edging off the rails in a few races. The track today should start the day off quite firm, but we do have substantial rain forecast for later in the day so will just be a question of when that comes through (and most likely in time for FOXY FRIDA in the last race). Interestingly the last few years they have moved the rail OUT 10M for today and then back to TRUE for the Caulfield Cup, but the rail is remaining TRUE today, so assuming the rail will go out for Saturday. Expecting the racing pattern to favour those on-speed early in the day on a firm track and coming wider later in the day (and earlier if the rain comes earlier).
Great to have the Thousand Guineas and Coogny back on the mid-week program for the second year back and this Weds program is looking quite strong from a punting point of view, after we did have quite a few years of small fields and extremely uninteresting racing. Some big fields and plenty of horses at good odds to have a look at today.
Thousand Guineas Preview
Assuming we have going to have some rain fall by Race 8 and the more rain the better for favourite 4-BOOGIE DANCER. There doesnít look to be much speed here at all, with the 5-NORTH STAR LASS the most likely leader and some of the backmarkers will want to be careful not to leave it too late. The 6-WALTZ ON BY will settle handy as will the 3-SHEíS LICKETYSPLIT and probably the 4-BOOGIE DANCER closer to the speed from a good barrier today with the 10-TAJNEED not far behind them.
Runner By runner comments:
1-RUSSIAN CONQUEST is a Sydney filly who has struggled on wet tracks up there, but was right in the blanket finish at Sandown against many of these. That was a really good run she moved through the field from well back and hit the line really well and plenty of improvement to come off the two runs this time in. Suspect she probably settles more handy in this from a good barrier and looks a solid chance.
2-REVOLUTIONARY MISS is a strong finishing back marker who mixed it in the best races as a 2YO. Not suited MV leaders track two starts ago and then worked home well behind the bunched finished at Sandown and worth noting she meets all of those better on weights today by 2.5kgs. Would need the track to stay firm and a decent speed so she can run on late over the 1600M, but often you want to be on the strongest finisher in this race so she is a decent rough chance.
3-SHEíS LICKETYSPLIT is a NZ filly who was a little disappointing here two starts back, but won the Edward Manifold last start which is always a good guide to this race. Had some doubters last start over 1600M and on a dry track (including us), but she won well although probably did get the perfect run. Likely to get the perfect run here again in a race with not much pressure up front. Canít really knock her form, just not totally convinced how good she is.
4-BOOGIE DANCER was a totally dominant win here last start on a wet track, when looped the field from well back and ran straight past them with ease for a total dominant win. Start before that at MV was a black book special when she dropped back in distance on a leaders track and was weaving through the field with some intent late. Worth noting she beat BERKELEY SQUARE here back in July who ran well in the Caulfield Guineas. She can settle more forward here today from a good barrier. Only question might need if she needs a wet track to be totally dominant, but she is pretty good and have to respect that last start win. One to beat.
5-NORTH STAR LASS has been racing really well up in Sydney and looks the leader here with not much pressure up front so needs to be respected. Has yet to strike a dry track. Did fight on pretty well last start when headed so very wary of her if the racing pattern favours those on-speed.
6-WALTZ ON BY somehow managed to hold on last start in a blanket finish and solid Sandown win two starts back after not having much luck 1st up at Caulfield. Likes to go forward and roll on-speed and should get a pretty good run today in a smallish field. Dam STAY WITH ME won this race, as did grand dam MISS FINLAND, all in the same colours, so thatís some blood line and actually surprised she is $17 today given she is in winning form and considering her genes. Genuine chance.
7-MADAME POMMERY is fitter for the three runs in and she loomed up very nicely and troubled the favourite at odds two starts back in Sydney. Thought she would be a live chance last start but she faded badly late and jockey offered excuse of 1600M being too much on a heavy track. First try on a dry track here, she is strong finisher so should be suited in this race, bit surprised at the odds though think she deserved to be longer odds. Prefer place.
8-MOKO is still a maiden after 7 starts and didnít show much in the Edward Manifold last start. Drop back grinding type who has run some good races, just not sure this race is going to be run to suit.
9-JENNY JEROME is fitter for the two runs in and has not done much wrong in her career to date. Ran on very well in the bunched finish at Sandown last start, and that was the worse going on the day so performance is better than it looks. Likely to drop back from outside barrier but looks to be one on the improve so rough place chance in this.
10-TAJNEED is extremely lightly raced and only at start three and should still have plenty of improvement to come off good Edward Manifold run. Last run was excellent, box seated and showed a turn of foot and just found one better, but you would expect has more improvement to come than the (3). Same issue as many of those in the Caulfield Guineas, only at start three and in first preparation makes this a tough ask, but she is some winning chance on that promising last start.
11-SHEíS PRETTY RICH is the rank, rank outsider of the field, but wasnít beaten that far down the straight two starts back. Hard to see her improving enough though to beat the bunched finished last start that finished well in front of her.
Summary- This is a race where we really donít have that strong of an opinion and there doesnít seem to be much between many of these. A lot may depend on what time the rain comes and how much, but think you just have to respect the totally dominant win of the favourite 4-BOOGIE DANCER here last start in the Prelude and she should settle a lot handier today from a good barrier in a race where the tempo may only be moderate. Definitely think the 6-WALTZ ON BY is over the odds, maybe coming through weaker form races, but she might just be a winner and she is going to jump and sit outside the leader here and might get the run of the race, and wary of the leader the Sydney filly 5-NORTH STAR LASS. Best roughie is the 10-TAJNEED who we really liked the last run from, just up against more experienced rivals here in a Group 1. If the rain comes will be have a confident win bet on the top pick else the box quinella on the three selections looks good value.
BEST WIN: Race 9: 7-FOXY FRIDA $7 WIN
This is one of our favourite horses and one we want to follow this spring Ė just wished they had been brave and had a try at a Caulfield Cup! Super honest mare, strong finisher, proven in this class and handles it wet and you would think some rain would have come by now. Fitter for the two runs in and the key to her is that she wants a solid tempo and 1600M, so big field today will help and she has ran well in two stop start races in small fields this time in and should be ready to win today. Despite the big field happy to back her straight out at around $7 and will try for some value quinellas in the Wonder Bet below. Main bet of the day.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 11-PRIX DE TURN $4 EW
Stayer with some ability, but just struggles to find the right race. Doesnít handle it wet and probably back onto a firm track here still for Race 3, and needs a solid tempo in his races and has been running in leader dominated MV races. Looks ready to do something with the three runs in and out to 2000M and looks a good race for him here at the bottom of the weights. Solid each way bet at around $15.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 5-POUNDING $4 EW
Racing really consistently and the run last time behind the favourite the (7) last time was really good and he chased hard all the way to the line. That one got out first last time and went for home, today the runs might be reversed with the favourite dropping back from barrier (1) and might need luck getting a run. First time at 2000M, but has been racing so very consistently. Prefer to back this one each way at around $7
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 13-HEíS THE REAL DEEL $4 EW
Big field and huge odds about lots of runners in this, but we really liked the run of this one last start. Jumped, led and kicked in the straight and was going to win and hold on about 50M out but that long Sandown straight meant the runners on could get to him. Inside wasnít the best going either that day. Fitter for the two runs in, looks to race on-speed here, guess concern in a big field is that the pressure goes on, but he should get clear and make his own luck whilst others deal with bad barriers. Keen to have a bet at around $25 and would love to back up with a box quinella but really hard to know what is going to be the final field with most interest in the emergencies.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 4-BOOGIE DANCER, 6-WALTZ ON BY, 5-NORTH STAR LASS boxed x$6 = 200%
The 4-BOOGIE DANCER looks the one to beat in the feature Thousand Guineas and think $3.50 is actually pretty good odds, especially if some rain has come by then. The 5-NORTH STAR LASS leader and best of the Sydney horses and the 6-WALTZ ON BY seems over the odds especially given her relations. Box up a quinella.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 8-ZOEíS PROMISE $2 EW
We have tipped this one a few times and going to stick by her for now. Maiden who showed ran some good tough runs on-speed as a 2YO and may just be a matter of getting her over 1600M with a few runs in. Both runs this time in have been OK, she has led and fought on well enough, but small field, first race of the day, 1600M and bottom of the weights looks a great chance for a front running pinch the race ride by jockey Kelly. Good rough chance at around $20.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 6-DROP THE MIC $2 EW
Utterly ridiculous race in a big field of country horses and its $10 the field so letís have a try at a roughie. Pretty rubbish barrier, but placed 10/15 over the 1400M and prefers tracks on the firmer side which should still be the case by this race. Plugged away OK on heavy track last time and might just be a case if he can get across on-speed from the wide barrier. Rough at $35.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 4-WATADEEL at around $2.50
No great reason for this, only we didnít have it in the tips so might as well lay it. Lots of lightly raced types who can improve sharply in this, likely to drop back in a race that may be leader dominated and just not keen to take these odds.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a ticket to a fancy Caulfield marquee.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 7-FOXY FRIDA#5,10,12,13 x $5 = 125%
We are still stinging from missing the last race $120 quinella on Saturday in a photo, so letís try for a similar bet today. We are keen on the 7-FOXY FRIDA, but there are a stack of long shot chances in a big field like 5-BELLE PLAISIR ($21), 10-SAIGON ($51), 12-NIGHT PASSAGE ($34) and 13-OCEAN MISS ($91) so letís try for a big value quinella.
Races 6,7,8,9: 6,8,9,12,18,19 / 3,5,9 / 4,6 / 5,7,10,12,13,16 x $20 = 9.3%
Super tricky quaddie with big fields and also because we donít know what emergencies will run. If the 18-SHARP RESPONSE, 19-FIELD OF ROSES donít get a start in the first leg substitute in the roughie 15-ELUDING and favourite the 3-NUGGET, but the plan is to go wide and try and get a big kick-off. The classier horses normally win the Blue Sapphire, and actually think you can narrow down the feature to just the favourite 4-BOOGIE DANCER who will be hard to beat and the 6-WALTZ ON BY for value. We are very keen on the 7-FOXY FRIDA in the last leg, but hard to ignore a swag of longshots so taking a few (maybe take one with the (7) one out and one with the roughies). Should definitely pay today.
Race 1: 8-ZOEíS PROMISE, 6-FERRARI MAN, 2-YAKI ISHI
Race 2: 9-PORT PHILIP, 7-GONE WEST, 5-CABOCHE
Race 3: 11-PRIX DE TURN, 13-GUNSTOCK, 1-YONKERS
Race 4: 5-POUNDING, 7-AESOP, 8-CERBERUS
Race 5: 1-KISS ME IF YOU CAN, 8-CORONA LAD, 6-DROP THE MIC
Race 6: 13-HEíS THE REAL DEEL, 19-FIELD OF ROSES (emerg), 9-PAPERBOY, 18-SHARP RESPONSE (emerg)
Race 7: 3-LOFTY STRIKE, 5-ECONOMICS, 9-GREAT BARRIER REEF
Race 8: 4-BOOGIE DANCER, 6-WALTZ ON BY, 5-NORTH STAR LASS
Race 9: 7-FOXY FRIDA, 16-ROOTS, 12-NIGHT PASSAGE