Exclusive offer for Turf Deli Subscribers : DEPOSIT $100 and get a $150 FREE BET

FLEMINGTON : TURNBULL STAKES DAY - 4th Oct 2008

Track: DEAD (4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 9M

Betting Portfolio ($100): Fine weather after a record dry September in Melbourne, so a genuinely firm track even with a few showers forecast tonight. Will be interesting to see how this track races, they raced here just last Sunday in a transferred meeting, with the rail out 15M. On that day, most of the winners were running on, and the inside rail did seem a little off, and down the straight they were avoiding the very outside of the track. Based on that, with the rail back in to the 9M position here, you would say that the best ground is going to be against the inside. However, it is worth noting that last two years on this day the inside has been off and the winners have come down the middle of the track. Confusing enough yet ? Assuming that with the extra meeting this year it will be different, and we should get even racing, but as always be aware of any racing pattern and adjust bets accordingly. Actually quite confident that the inside rail is going to be fastest down the straight which will be a novelty. History of how tracks have raced in previous years is available on the website at : http://www.turfdeli.com.au/article.asp?racemenu/TheKnowledge RESULTS : Track does tend to favour those racing on pace, although there wasn't much speed in most of the races. Bizarrely, after all the 2YOs come to the inside in the first race down the straight, the whole field goes to the outside in the feature sprint. Huh? Can't work it out. The tips have a grand day out and its wall to wall quinellas. Let’s double the normal weekly stake with plenty to bet on today. BEST BET : Race 7: 11-ROMNEYA $20 WIN TRIFECTA : Race 7 : 11 / 1,6,7,9,10,12,15 / 1,6,7,9,10,12,15 = $21 Here we go again – think this is the 3rd time in a row we have tipped her. But happy to stick with her. Yet to be unplaced in 6 runs. Stuck on extremely well here on pace 2 starts back. Last start drifted too far back from outside barrier, and came with a mighty rush once race was all over, making a good 6 lengths on the winner and being well clear shortly after the post –should’ve won easily. Opposition looks a little substandard and should win. Wonder if she might start short though (under $3), so let’s back her to win and have a multiple trifecta which should pay OK with the rest being pretty even. RESULTS : Apparently she had a bit of a cold during the week. Poor baby. Drops a bit too far back, on pacers do dominate. Finished on OK but still disappointing. BEST EACH WAY : Race 4: 4-LIGHT VISION $15 EW 1st W=$4.60, P=$1.80 = (15 x 6.4) = $96 QUINELLA : Race 4: 4-LIGHT VISION, 11-TESTA GRANDE x $5 QUINELLA : Race 4: 4-LIGHT VISION , 2-BAUGHURST x $5 QUINELLA = $11.30 x 5 = $56.50 This one is racing extremely well, will race on pace and make his own luck. Stuck on very well last start when they were running on. Like that he has had the 2 x 2000M runs going into this – hard and fit and ready for the 2500M today. Looks good value at around $7 at the moment on fixed odds. Back him each way and take some quinellas which should pay well with two value place chances. RESULTS : Right on the money, and had the quinella covered all the way down the straight, but a matter of sitting back and enjoying the view. $7 available on TAB fixed odds on Friday arvo was very nice - thank you. BEST ROUGH : Race 6: 9-AUTUMN JEUNEY $7 EW SCR $14 Should start nice odds in a big even field, fitter for the 2 runs in. Unlucky last start when had very little room to make its run and finished just behind them. Importantly, drawn a good barrier over the Flem 1400M and can sit handy just behind the speed and should be in the finish. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more RUNNING DOUBLE : Race 8 : 2 / 2,5,10,14,16 x $1 = $5 RESULTS : - / 1st 5-EL CAMBIO W=$7.50, 2nd 2-SWICK W=$11.50 Seeing we have been foolish enough to tip against WEEKEND HUSSLER, might as well try to cash in. Think it is worth backing 2-POMPEII RULER on the odds on offer. The sprint race, Race 9, is wide open, so if there is an upset in the feature there will be plenty of value in the running double. RESULTS : Found the trick to the sprint race, just not brave enough to commit to a HUSSLER free fall. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $166.50 NET : $+66.50

The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YOS. PICK A NUMBER. ANY NUMBER Race 2: 5-MILES ABOVE, 13-WOOKAH, 3-LARRY’S NEVER LATE Race 3: 6-HEART OF DREAMS, 8-TINDAL, 2-BHUTANE DANE Race 4: 4-LIGHT VISION, 11-TESTA GRANDE, 2-BAUGHURST Race 5: 9-JABAL TARIK, 7-LARGO LAD, 10-DANDAAD Race 6: 9-AUTUMN JEUNEY, 4-ABSOLUT GLAM, 12-BELLINI ROSE Race 7: 11-ROMNEYA, 12-SPARKS FLY, 15-VIVA DUBAI Race 8: 2-POMPEII RULER, 4-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 7-TUESDAY JOY Race 9: 16-HURRIED CHOICE, 2-SWICK, 5-EL CAMBIO Race 10: 5-SHARKBITE, 6-PLAYWRIGHT, 4-SEA BATTLE

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 5-MILES ABOVE 13-WOOKAH 2nd W=4.80 3-LARRY’S NEVER LATE 3rd W=$8.30

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 6-HEART OF DREAMS 2nd W=$4.30 8-TINDAL 1st W=$3.60 2-BHUTANE DANE 3rd W=$2.80 Quinella : $7.30 *** one quinella *** Trifecta : $24.80

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 4-LIGHT VISION 1st W=$4.60 *** best each way *** 11-TESTA GRANDE 2-BAUGHURST 2nd W=$6.80 Quinella : $11.30 *** two quinella ***

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 9-JABAL TARIK 1st W=$6.40 7-LARGO LAD 2nd W=$3.30 10-DANDAAD Quinella : $11.20 *** three quinella ***

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 9-AUTUMN JEUNEY SCR 4-ABSOLUT GLAM 2nd W=$2.30 12-BELLINI ROSE 1st W=$8.60 Quinella : $10.80 *** four quinella ***

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 11-ROMNEYA 12-SPARKS FLY 3rd W=$7.70 15-VIVA DUBAI

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 2-POMPEII RULER 4-WEEKEND HUSSLER 7-TUESDAY JOY

RACE 9: RESULTS

Tips: 16-HURRIED CHOICE 2-SWICK 2nd W=$11.50 5-EL CAMBIO 1st W=$7.50 Quinella : $53.50 *** five quinella ***

RACE 10: RESULTS

Tips: 5-SHARKBITE SCR 6-PLAYWRIGHT 4-SEA BATTLE 1st W=$2.80

RACE 8: TURNBULL STAKES GROUP 1 2000M

Tips: 2-POMPEII RULER 4-WEEKEND HUSSLER 7-TUESDAY JOY

Others: 8 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 11-EXTEND Handy : 2-POMPEII RULER, 4-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 6-MALDIVIAN, 9-ZARITA Back : 1-EFFICIENT, 3-ZIPPING, 5-MASTER O'REILLY, 7-TUESDAY JOY, 10-ALEXANDER OF HALES, 12-ZAGREB, 13-LITTORIO Chances: 2-POMPEII RULER seems to be back to his best form, and on his best form he is damm good. Was seriously going to be No 1 WFA horse in the country before injury setback, and looked to still have plenty of improvement to come on his Spring 2006 campaign. Trainer is getting him fit through racing so should have derived plenty of improvement from 3 runs so far. 1st up run was excellent when hit the line hard, over raced and trapped exposed 3 wide on fast pace at MV when flopped, and plenty to like about last run at Caulfield – he flattened out and looked like he was going to go past the HUSSLER, but just ran out of condition. Only beaten 1/2L last start, and think this one has plenty more improvement to come. Genuine chance. 4th W=$7.60 4-WEEKEND HUSSLER is the pin up boy of Australian racing, with hoards of screaming fans every time he does an appearance at a shopping mall. Way above average, probably way-way-way above average, and if manages to go through the rest of spring undefeated he would be way-way-way-way-way-way (you get the idea) above average. Find it hard to believe he can go through the rest of spring undefeated, they all end up losing sometime. He is fast developing a trade mark – stalking his prey about 2-3 back and on the outside, timing his move and going for home. Still want to see him over come difficulty, get blocked for runs, trapped wide, and pull out something special – he just seems to get it pretty easy – but then again good horses do make their own luck. Out to 2000M for the first time today, and meets the most competitive field so far this spring. Good horses keep on winning though so one to beat. 7-TUESDAY JOY has always shown a lot of potential and looks like she is going to be a factor this spring. Missed last spring because of a bug that was going around called EI. Class mare who does give her rivals ground, and needs to flatten out and come home – like the MV win which was authorative once she got out. Great win here in Wakeful over 2000M in 2006 when got rails run from back in the field. Needs some pace on – which might be an issue here, and need them to be running on, but think she is a genuine chance in this. 8-GUILLOTINE caused a boil over last start at MV, but did quite like the win – he got a perfect cover on a fast pace, but was always going to win, was just a matter of getting out. And once he got out claimed them pretty quickly. Nice barrier and not much speed here and he can sit up handy to the lead and will put himself into the race. 4YO who looks like he is on a rapid improvement rise and he might just go on with it. Clearly best rough chance of the race for us, will sit just behind the speed, think he might even burst through at some stage half way down the straight and look the winner. Rough. Place: 3-ZIPPING is vastly under rated in our opinion. Has two personas, one as a tough on pace stayer which saw him win a MV Cup and run two competitive Melbourne Cups, and the other as a sit and sprint from behind WFA horse. Much prefer the WFA version, and he should have picked up a race like this by now – playing armchair trainer, but don’t think he has been placed the best. His form at Flem, and at the 2000M is pretty good – ran 5th in this race last year, and 3rd in the McKinnon, and a really unlucky 5th when flying home in this race in 2006. That year he had 4 runs in though and was coming off a win. Only the 1 run in this year, when made OK ground at MV. He would have to be at the top of his game to win in this field, and unlikely to be at peak 2nd up. Likely to be running on, and if the track is favouring runners on as it often does this day, throw him in as a value place chance for trifectas and first fours. 3rd W=$73.20 9-ZARITA is an honest on pace staying mare who has transferred her 3YO staying form into reasonable 4YO WFA form. Fitter for the 3 runs in, ran 2nd to the HUSSLER here 2 starts back – but meets him on the same weight terms here even with the changed weight scale. Reasonable run last start when was trapped very wide all the way and stuck on well. Drawn wide and may get caught wide again today. Think she is marginally below these, but she will stick on and be around the placings. 13-LITTORIO has always promised, but never quite delivered, but both runs this Spring has been excellent. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and suited on spacious track and more distance. Does get the best of the weights here – meets the HUSSLER 4.5 kgs better off for being beaten 3L or so last two runs. On weights – that puts him right in this, and if this was two standard horses running against each other on these terms you would probably want to be on this one. But good horses keep on winning, and suspect despite the weight pull the champ is going to have his measure again today. Maybe a rough chance if the track plays that they are running on. Will be running on though and probably won’t be far off them 1st W=$9.50 Sacking: 1-EFFICIENT is the reigning Melbourne Cup title holder with only that race in mind again this year. Specifically set for the Cup last year, and didn’t show any real form in that campaign until they had gone about 2900M in the Cup. Loves Flemington, and VRC Derby and Cup wins were both well above average coming from well back, which is damm hard to do in the Cup. Just given the warm up run over autumn, and 1st run back in Spring wasn’t too bad and was making nice ground. Likely to be running on today, but not a betting proposition. 5-MASTER O'REILLY is being given a light Cups campaign this year. 2nd up and ran on OK 1st up with the (1) alongside. Won here 2nd up last spring over 2000M. Wins have been in handicaps with light weights so you do wonder how suited he is at WFA or under this weight scale giving weight to most of the field. Will get back and run on, another who will be suited if they are running on, but another who would probably need to be at peak to be a factor here, and don’t think he will be. Passing. 2nd W=$60.50 6-MALDIVIAN is up there with the best on his day, as a tough on pacer stayer. Fitter for the 4 runs in and trainer keeps saying he needs to have hard racing to find best. Did take a few runs to find peak form last spring. Looked like he had come back better than ever 1st two runs this time in, the HUSSLER really had to pull out everything to get to him in the Memsie. Got caught wide on a fast pace at MV, went around them to hit the lead and didn’t find much. Run was excusable - just, but then kicked clear full of running on home turn in Underwood (and yes, that was us who let out an awful early crow of “Go Mal” – most embarrassing), and stopped dead 50M later. Thought the last two runs were disappointing – when he has been asked to find, he has found nothing. One of our favourite horses, but ready to drop off today and just doesn’t seem to be going well enough for us. 10-ALEXANDER OF HALES (USA) is an import who has yet to show any form in 2 runs in Australia. Stepping out to more suitable distance, but wait till he shows something called form. 11-EXTEND is a handy on pace stayer who looks to be flying a bit too high here. Still fairly lightly raced and does have ability. Fitter for the 2 runs in, but coming into a Group 1 race off a restricted race can’t be a good sign. Main interest here is think he may be the likely leader – can race forward, stable has two drop back class horses who need a decent hit out. Worth backing down a couple of grades as will probably be ready to win again with today’s run, but not today. 12-ZAGREB has always shown a lot of potential, and seems to have finally stepped up a grade this time in – used to drop too far back and run on that little bit too late in previous preparations. Took a nice handy position 2 starts ago at Caulfield, which was a welcome change, and was suited when they were all coming off the rails to make a late charge at them when winning at Caulfield. Will drop back, don’t think he will get the pace on he wants, though the big Flem track should suit. Has the 2000M run which is a plus. Even with the weight pull under these race conditions think others here will have his measure. Summary: Usually a great betting race, this is normally the first time during the Spring a lot of the form lines merge and you can get some value to back your judgement. Plus they go and change the weight conditions away from WFA to set weights with penalties, just to mix it up a little and keen punters on the ball. Interesting to see how the speed in this race pans out. Trainer of 6-MALDIVIAN has said during the week they might be taking a sit today, so think it might be up to 11-EXTEND to be the pace setter (especially considering the stable has 3 runners in the race, and 2 of them want some speed on). 6-MALDIVIAN, 9-ZARITA likely to sit behind the leader, and 2-POMPEII RULER, 4-WEEKEND HUSSLER eyeballing each other behind them. Despite that think the pace will only be moderate to even at best, and probably not enough to suit those who want a fast pace to run on. So do we tip against 4-WEEKEND HUSSLER or not ? No doubt he is outstanding, but he is still beatable. He should be able to get his traditional spot 2 back and outside stalking the pace, and not worried about him being caught wide from the barrier, there isn’t that much speed up front. Good horses keep on winning, and making their own luck, and he probably will. But, worth noting, in most of the early WFA races the majority of the field are just doing warm ups or out of form, today he goes into a tough competitive race – there are 3 other last start winners, so this is a more genuine contest. Just watching the Underwood replay, it looked like 2-POMPEII RULER just about had him most of the straight, he was shying away from the whip of the horse in front and dying on his run, but stuck on well to only be beaten ˝ L. Like that 2-POMPEII RULER stuck with the HUSSLER all the way down the straight and he didn’t pull away from him. Just feel that 2-POMPEII RULER has a lot more improvement to come and is capable of winning this, so actually happy to have a bet at the $7.50 or so on offer. Think those two fight out the finish – they have met twice this spring and been less than 1L between them, and one is proven at the 2000M, so don’t think this race is quite over yet. 7-TUESDAY JOY the other danger and actually expect 8-GUILLOTINE might show that last run was no fluke and not be far off them either. One to risk: 6-MALDIVIAN Roughie: 8-GUILLOTINE RESULTS : Well, that sorta changes everything doesn't it? . The HUSSLER turns in a shocker, misses a place, and the bolters come from all around to run the placings. 2-POMPEII RULER does loom and look the winner, but gets swamped. 13-LITTORIO wins with something in hand, which is amazing considering the quality of his opposition. Would love to see 3-ZIPPING seriously aimed at a Cox Plate, think he is vastly under rated.