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| FLEMINGTON : TURNBULL STAKES - 2nd Oct 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Welcome to the traditional home of racing, Flemington, on the traditional day of racing. Sunday. Sunday morning in fact. Sunday morning, with a 10:30am kick off, coming off daylight savings. Wouldn’t it have just been better to run this meeting on the Saturday anyway ? What was the point of moving this meeting away from the Grand Final schedule, if it was going to clash so badly with the Royal Melbourne Show and get crammed into this ridiculous morning time slot. Next thing you know they will be scheduling the races so they don’t clash with the daytime soaps. Can you guess we are not a morning person ? Plenty of rain in Melbourne this week, some serious storms and showers continuing into the weekend so looking at a genuine SLOW track we think. Especially with the morning time slot and not much time for the clearing Sunday weather to dry out the track. Important to note that the rail is TRUE here, they vary it for this meeting from year to year. Often when the rail is out for this meeting the inside is off and the winners swoop down the middle of the track. Not quite so sure about the pattern with the rail TRUE today. Rail was TRUE here for the last meeting, where the wind was the major factor and you wanted cover and to run on. Should get even racing, with the rail in the same position though and a wet track just be wary it might turn into a runners on track, at the very least those coming from back will have every chance to win. Down the straight suspect it might be the wider the better, so look for those drawn outside barriers. Important to look for those with genuine wet track form. Really good betting program, big open fields and plenty of value to be had. Keen to have a bet today. RESULTS : Quite surreal day at the races, the crowd seemed to be well down on normal Turnbull Stakes Day attendances and those who did turn up seemed to be totally bewildered. There was also a total lack of atmosphere, as well as a total lack of winners as the Turf Deli Selections bombed out yet again. Track raced fairly, but they struggled to make ground out wide and most of the winners raced on the speed. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 10-BOOKLET $8 EW 2nd W=$10.20, P=$2.90 = 8 x 2.90 = $23.20 This one has a fair bit of ability, but you just need to wait for the right race to get on. Drops back, so needs them to be running on OK and they should be able to make ground on this track with the rail staying in the TRUE position. Flying win coming through the field 1st up at MV, the made good ground 2nd up at Caulfield on a track that was tending towards on pacers. Handles it wet just fine, drawn a nice barrier, keeps up a nice win/place strike rate, 3rd up and up to the 1400M suits. Really very keen on this one today in a big field. Nice each way bet at around $17. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 6-EURYALE $5 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 5: 6-EURYALE, 2-BLISS STREET x $2.50 X , 2nd 2-BLISS STREET W=$5.40 QUINELLA : Race 5: 6-EURYALE, 5-CELEBRITY GIRL x $2.50 X, 3rd 5-CELEBRITY GIRL W=$2.50 Well beaten last start, but back in the pack this one was dodging and weaving and trying to get clear and went to the line under a hold. Proven over the 1600M, proven on wet ground, can drop back here and run on and looks a nice bet to cause an upset. Maybe just to be safe take the quinella with the (2) and the (5) who are probably the best from the Caulfield race. RESULTS : Comes out to the middle of the track and threatens to run on, but nothing finishes on out that wide today. Did seem to be safely held though. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 17-CURTANA $5 EW 4th W=$11.70 Pretty smart sprinter in a tough even field, but should be fitter for the 1st up run and her straight track form is excellent – placed 3 from 4 runs down the straight. Maybe would have just preferred her to draw out a little further as suspect the wider the better down the straight, but think she is rather under rated and happy to have a go at the $10 or so on offer today. RESULTS : Darn it, thought we were looking at a collect here when this one kicked clear on the inside about 200M out and looked the winner. They swooped out wide they and did seem she hit the front a little too early. Keep following this one. QUINELLA : Race 7: 13-DECEMBER DRAW, 14-SOUTHERN SPEED, 12-ABSOLUTELY x $3 = $9 1st 13-DECEMBER DRAW W=$2.20 Realistically, 13-DECEMBER DRAW does look one of the bets of the day, fit, in form, on pace, back at Flemington, really should just about win. Actually thought he would be longer than $3 though in a field with a bit more depth than previous runs. As we said in the preview, if you go away from the usual suspects think there is some value in the quinella here and fairly confident this lot will be fighting out the finish. RESULTS : The favourite wins, but with the track not really giving those running on much of a chance the quinella never looks likely. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 2 : 3 MOST HUSBANDS at around $4. 7th W=$5.50 This one has won both starts so far, but be wary of getting on the favourites in these even 3YO fields where there are a lot on the improve and on the way up with untapped potential. Sure he has won both starts, but did have the big plus of a claim last start so meets the (1) here a whopping 5.5 kgs worse off for only a 1L defeat. Will be thereabouts in the finish, but suspect something will rapidly improve at odds and win this. RESULTS : Never looks likely. The odds we quote everywhere are the TAB odds, but interesting to note that he drifted from $3.80 to $6 on course so obviously no one wanted to go near this one. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUINELLA : Race 3: 10-SWOOPER, 11-MY SCOTSGREY x $2.50 4th 10-SWOOPER W=$21.90 QUINELLA : Race 3: 10-SWOOPER, 5-BLACK AND BENT x $2.50 Should be plenty of value in the staying race in the quinella. Our top pick is one we are taking on trust a little, the (10), had a break then was stepping up sharply in distance from 1600M to 2500M at MV when no pace up front did not suit and suspect she is going to go a lot better today. Handles it wet and Flem staying record is good. The (11) is probably the safer each way bet, eye catching run here last start, lightly raced and looks one of the few in this with some upside. And everyone saw the grand old hurdler the (5) running on last start as he strives towards a dream Melbourne Cup start. RESULTS : Gets back and just runs on OK, but never figures in the finish. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $23.20 NET : $-26.80 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO AND FAR TOO EARLY IN THE MORNING FOR A BET. Race 2: 2-RESCUE MISSION, 11-MEETHAQ, 9-I FEEL GOOD Race 3: 10-SWOOPER, 11-MY SCOTSGREY, 5-BLACK AND BENT Race 4: 10-BOOKLET, 9-ZUBBAYA 14-CHARLIE’S QUEEN Race 5: 6-EURYALE, 2-BLISS STREET, 5-CELEBRITY GIRL Race 6: 17-CURTANA, 10-ELUSIVE TOUCH, 4-FIRST COMMAND Race 7: 13-DECEMBER DRAW, 14-SOUTHERN SPEED, 12-ABSOLUTELY Race 8: 3-COSTLY COMMITMENT, 4-SCELTO, 5-BERENGER |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-RESCUE MISSION 11-MEETHAQ 9-I FEEL GOOD SCR |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-SWOOPER 11-MY SCOTSGREY 5-BLACK AND BENT |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-BOOKLET 2nd W=$10.20 9-ZUBBAYA 14-CHARLIE’S QUEEN |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-EURYALE 2-BLISS STREET 2nd W=$5.40 5-CELEBRITY GIRL 3rd W=$2.50 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 17-CURTANA 10-ELUSIVE TOUCH 4-FIRST COMMAND |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-DECEMBER DRAW 1st W=$2.20 14-SOUTHERN SPEED 12-ABSOLUTELY |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-COSTLY COMMITMENT 3rd W=$4.20 4-SCELTO 5-BERENGER |
| RACE 7: TURNBULL STAKES GROUP 1 2000M |
| Tips: 13-DECEMBER DRAW 1st W=$2.20 14-SOUTHERN SPEED 12-ABSOLUTELY |
| Others: Pace: SLOW Leaders : 7-GLASS HARMONIUM Handy : 10-AT FIRST SIGHT, 13-DECEMBER DRAW, 14-SOUTHERN SPEED Back : 1-EFFICIENT, 2-UNUSUAL SUSPECT, 3-PLAYING GOD, 4-PRECEDENCE, 5-LINTON, 6-SHAMROCKER, 8-REKINDLED INTEREST, 9-EXTRA ZERO, 11-RAFFAELLO, 12-ABSOLUTELY Chances: 5-LINTON has always had a big rap on him, but for our mind hasn’t really come out and done something special like he promised too after his outstanding 3YO season. He has been running on in most of the right races, but you really want him to come out and win a top class race with a stamp of style. 3rd up last time in off two indifferent runs he finished on strongly this track and distance in the Australian Cup. 1st up this time in was just far, ran on OK – but good Melbourne Cup trials just don’t win races. 2nd up at MV he ended up in the lead initially, which was unusual, and was held up for runs in a stop / start race and a bunched field so can probably excuse that run. Probably a slight query on a genuine wet track. Does tend to drop back and just seems to find one better most starts, but we think the racing pattern will favour those swooping down the middle of the track He will be thereabouts, so each way chance, and is probably due to do something - not sure you can back him with any confidence though. Chance. 8-REKINDLED INTEREST has always shown a heap of ability, but didn’t really finally put it together till last start. Famous for flashy finishes into well beaten 4ths,5ths and 6ths as a 3YO, except for that 1 win in the AAMI Vase. Flashy run again 1st up down the straight, but at least that was a 2nd, then ridden forward against normal pattern and really didn’t finish it off at Caulfield. Had absolutely everything go his way in the Dato Tan, swoopers track at MV, stop start speed and he just sat out the back off them, and many of his rivals struggled for clear runs that day. Still not sure about that performance, he could go on with it – or it could have just been that he had his day in the sun. Gets a slight weight pull from some of his rivals under this weight scale. He is definitely better on top of the ground though and a genuine wet track is a concern. Will drop back and try and swoop again, most of this field are swoopers as well though and there isn’t much speed up front. Unsure to be honest, we had followed him for ages and finally gave up last start – when he of course won, but still not totally convinced. Chance. 10-AT FIRST SIGHT is one of the Williams boat horse brigade who seems to be coming into form at the right time. Fitter for the 3 runs in, stepping up in distance, and really have to like the way he chased down the (13) on the line at Caulfield. Actually meets that one 2kgs better off coming into this, margin was < 1L and this one probably has more improvement. Has been dropping well back in his races, but can’t see any reason why they can’t ride him a bit more handy today, distance and Flem should suit and be a plus. Wouldn’t under estimate this one, often like to get on the in form handicappers in this race and he does seem to be on the way up. Solid chance. SCR 12-ABSOLUTELY is a 4YO mare who looks like she is going to go on with it this spring. Solid 3YO filly staying form and she is strong finisher who seems to prefer some give in the ground so going to be plenty of pluses into this race. Fitter for the 2 runs in, looking for more ground, out to the 2000M here today. 1st up ran on nicely out wide and made solid ground again last start in the Stocks Stakes, which has turned out to be the form race of the spring. Outside barrier and another drop back horse , but think she is ready to do something today. Chance 13-DECEMBER DRAW is one of the form horses of the spring and has barely set a foot wrong since coming down under. Only beaten once in 5 starts now in Australia, lots of pluses in that he races on pace and puts himself into the race, so is very genuine. Only loss came 1st up at MV this time in when he really did try extremely hard to run down the leader on a strong leader’s track. Should be right at peak now, and unbeaten in 3 starts at Flemington. Drawn nice middle barrier, will sit handy, in a race with not much speed and an awful lot of run-on-far-too-late backmarkers. Have to respect, fit, in form handicappers into this race – remember it is set weights and penalties – not WFA. Only slight niggle is how much ground the (10) took off him last start – more in terms of whether we want to be on that one instead !. Very strong chance. 1st W=$2.20 14-SOUTHERN SPEED is another 4YO mare, but she seems to be rising to the challenge this spring. Should be right at peak now with the 4 runs in. Didn’t do much in the 1st two starts, but eye catching strong finish late in the Stocks Stakes at MV which has turned out to be an extremely strong form race. Have to admit we were on her in the Underwood at nice odds, she was a little unlucky in that she was flushed out early and had to make a early dash to the lead around the home turn. Showed a nice kick and turn of foot too and think she would have made it a close finish if she could have waited a bit longer. Unknown on wet ground is a worry though. They tend to ride her closer these days and think that is the key here – she was ridden close to the speed last start and went really well. With not much speed here, nice barrier, she is going to get a perfect sit on the speed here. Most importantly, she is in good form and is really well in under this weight scale with a lightweight 52kgs. Strong chance. 4th W=$8.70 Place: 4-PRECEDENCE is a stayer of Bart’s with a bit of ability and stable has always had a high opinion of this one – so really should go on this season. Fitter for the 2 runs in and should be ready to produce something today. 1st up run was really good when finished on nicely, and then just an even run 2nd up, but lots of improvement still to come. He is one who might want the track a bit firmer and may be a bit of a query on a genuinely wet track. Worth noting that he was won 3rd up at 2000M last two preparations coming off 1400M/1600M lead up runs with similar form. Will drop back and run on here and runners on should have their chance so he is a genuine rough chance in this. Rough. 7-GLASS HARMONIUM has been going along nicely this spring, coming off a very consistent QLD winter campaign when he held his form nicely in his first Australian preparation. Had a let up, then pretty good here in the Makybe Diva when raced wide without cover into a head wind and still fought on pretty well to be in the finish. Just OK in the Underwood when led, but over raced, and quickly collared in the straight and did get worked up before the race because of the wind. Fitter for those 2 runs in and should be right at peak today. Big plus is that he seems to be the only speed in this race, which is very top heavy with drop back horses. Drawn barrier 1, should kick and lead easily in this, question will just be if the rails are off on a rain affected track ? . Wet track should be no concern which is a big plus. Will be in this for a long way and probably a pretty safe bet for quinellas and the like, just have the suspicion one of the strong finishers will be too good and finish over the top here. Prefer place. 2nd W=$7.60 Sacking: 1-EFFICIENT is the former Melbourne Cup winner coming off a very long 2 year injury break, but has been given plenty of time to pull it all together. Flemington is definitely his go, has won 3 from 8 here, but when you consider they are the VRC Derby, The Melbourne Cup and the Turnbull here in 2009 that is pretty good going. Last win was this race in 2009, coming off 2 lead up runs in, but he had put in a nice run 1st up that preparation. Settled well back at Caulfield last start, and they weren’t really running on that day. Best form is on firm ground though, pretty much unknown on genuine wet tracks and you would think he is going to need one more before he shows something. No 2-UNUSUAL SUSPECT is an US import who looks an unusual choice to come down under – at the age of 8 and after 57 starts. Thought a more likely destination would have been a retirement village on the Gold Coast ? No interest at all in the betting 1st up, but he did finish off his race really well to finish an eye catching, and rather surprising 4th. Unknown on wet tracks – not sure how they grade US tracks but how do you end with 48 good track starts, 1 dead and 0 slow and heavy ? Maybe they are mainly dirt tracks runs ? Doesn’t it rain over there ? Anyway. Look he could come out and go on with it here, but probably prefer to just see him once again, still a bit sceptical about this one. Passing. SCR 3-PLAYING GOD is one that we have had a bit of time for and really thought he was going to go on this spring, but starting to doubt his ability. Last 2 starts have been very similar, has loomed up like he is going to run into the race and finish all over them – and then faded. Really had every chance the last 2 starts and think he has been a shade disappointing. Good runs here in the Autumn in the Australian Guineas and the Australian Cup, but both runs similar, looming up, but not being good enough to win. Yet to strike wet ground coming from WA, so unknown on today’s surface. Strong finisher so Flemington should suit, the runners on should have their chance today and this is probably not the strongest field going around so guess have to rate some chance. We are starting to doubt him at this level though so preferring place at best till he really puts a score on the board. Risking. 3rd W=$13.80 6-SHAMROCKER was the dominant 3YO filly of the spring and was expecting big things this Autumn but she has not gone on with it. Importantly, she was good enough to beat the males as a 3YO on more than one occasion which means she is the real deal and really should go on as a 4YO. She is a big track horse, Flemington is definitely her go, and she has improved dramatically here before. Probably better on top of the ground though and a genuine wet track today is probably a little bit of a worry for her. More of a worry though is whether she has some problem – didn’t expect her to do much 1st up and she didn’t, 2nd up you would have thought she would run on OK, but she was badly off her game, racing erratically at the back of the field – something was just not quite right. Bit hard to push with any confidence, you can’t really be sure if there is some underlying issue there. Have to wait till she shows some form. No 9-EXTRA ZERO has always had a bit of ability, but finally broke through for another win last start – first win in 16 starts or so. Has obviously had a few issues and can mix his form. Form early last Autumn wasn’t too bad when badly held up for runs in the Blamey. Fitter for the 3 runs in and got a dream sit behind the lead last start at Caulfield, when he came out and drove past them, but don’t think that was a particularly strong field and he did have all the favours. Think he might just struggle at this level against a better class of horse. Main problem is that he is really an on top of the ground horse and any rain is a big no no for this one. No 11-RAFFAELLO is a drop back handicapper who looks out of his depth against this lot. Had the 2 runs in from a break and did run on OK last start over in Adel. Yet another drop back horse in a field with very little speed so you do have to wonder how they are going to run on in this. Prefer in something easier. No Summary: Think this can be a trick race sometimes, have to remember it is set weights and penalties and not WFA, so fit, in form handicappers can be a factor in this. The trap often in this race is to fall into the usual suspect WFA runners on, those doing the “good Melbourne Cup trial” trick, those that have had 1-2 runs this time in for indifferent 4ths to 6ths,etc. Yes, we are talking about you 3-PLAYING GOD , 4-PRECEDENCE , 5-LINTON, etc. Have to admit we were surprised when we looked at the market as thought there would be more money for these types, but the ones we like are actually the favourites - which is no fun at all. This field does seem to be very heavily burdened with drop back horses – and that is going to be a major factor here, even though we suspect they will be running on OK today. Only possible leader is 7-GLASS HARMONIUM, and the most likely to race handy are 13-DECEMBER DRAW, 14-SOUTHERN SPEED with not much else that normally goes forward so there isn’t going to be much speed up front. Really think there are only 3 winning chances in this. 13-DECEMBER DRAW, fit , in form, on speed, making his own luck, loves Flemington, looks the one to beat. Thought we might get each way odds in this field though. 14-SOUTHERN SPEED the major danger, again camping on the speed and last run was seriously good, major issue with her is unknown on the wet. The unknown factor here is 10-AT FIRST SIGHT, really like the way he chased down the (13) last start – so might even have that one’s measure, maybe would just prefer to see him ridden midfield or better today and not give too much of a head start. Going away from the usual suspects, but it seems we are not the only one, and actually quite confident that these three not only win, but more than likely run the quinella. Keen to bet. Late change with the (10) scratched so elevate the (12) into the placings whose two runs in have been good and ready to do something, especially with some give in the ground. One to risk: 3-PLAYING GOD 3rd W=$13.80 Roughie: 12-ABSOLUTELY The Key: Look beyond the usual suspects. (yes we do realise we have just set it up for 2-UNUSUAL SUSPECT to win) RESULTS : Not much speed and 7-GLASS HARMONIUM leads and gives a huge kick and the favourite really has to pull out everything to run him down. 13-DECEMBER DRAW goes on his winning way, but he isn't winning by much, and he is having just about everything go his way in his races. 7-GLASS HARMONIUM should be right at peak now and worth following. Although 3-PLAYING GOD ran 3rd he did his normal trick of looming up like the winner and not finishing the race off. Can't work out why 5-LINTON keeps getting supported in these races, he still hasn't produced. 14-SOUTHERN SPEED, 12-ABSOLUTELY plug on just OK on a track favouring those racing on speed, 8-REKINDLED INTEREST probably slightly disappointing and still not convinced about this one. |
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